Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Regarding my editing out of my own text, I sometimes engage in that practice to save space, and I perceive that there is frequently no need to repeat content when it can be easily linked back to.   You want to make long additions to walls of text for no fucking reason, you goofball?   

I think I hear Alanis Morissette in the background...

I would need more of a reference than that in order to understand that puzzling response.

Well, if you have too explain it, it ain’t funny anymore!

fair enough...   I am just going to ignore the whole situation if I don't get any better clue - otherwise maybe 5 years from now, someone will say something that causes me to become enlightened....  perhaps?

[1714815312]

1714815312

[Last of the V8s]

... I don't know why you feel that you have some goal in life to purposefully twist what I said and to come off with your patronizing bullshit to try to say that I am saying something that I am not.

...bla bla bla...

I have to maintain my credibility.  It is most important that I not be perceived as merit whoring, thus, periodically annoying you maintains my standing in the community.

Nothing personal, just business you understand.

[JayJuanGee]

... I don't know why you feel that you have some goal in life to purposefully twist what I said and to come off with your patronizing bullshit to try to say that I am saying something that I am not.

...bla bla bla...

I have to maintain my credibility.  It is most important that I not be perceived as merit whoring, thus, periodically annoying you maintains my standing in the community.

Nothing personal, just business you understand.

Get the fuck out of here with that seemingly working system.    angry face means annoyed, and lots of them means extremely annoyed.   

[Bapt07]

Sorry to pop in guys, I've been following this thread for a long time, and I just remembered a post from toknormal which I put hereafter. Ended quite accurate (as for now at least), do you think it still holds or are you more in favor of Tera's vision (i.e. 3k in couple of weeks) ?
Thanks in advance !

Look folks, just put all background noise about tether, India guv, Roubini FUD and other distractions out of your minds.

Here's what's going on. The correction is technical, pure and simple.

If you checkout this chart from 2015/2016/17, you can see that bitcoin grows in these 8-monthly bubbles which burst in the "propellor correction" fashion I described. The pattern's always the same:



That is:

 • market starts rising out of a bowl
 • gets to a point where it overheats
 • nosedives sharply all the way down to retest just below the previous "propellor spike"
 • retraces halfway up the initial correction and stabilises
 • drifts slowly down from there to settle from where it starts the next cycle

During 2017 these corrections got closer together as we've had both greater market depth AND unprecedented growth during the year. So instead of our 8-monthly crash and recovery we've had 3 of those consolidations (that manifest in the lowest resolution weekly chart) in the last 6 months instead of 1. The last one was in November, peaking at $7500. Together, those 3 consolidations amounted to an aggregate 77% retrace spanning 6-8 months. ($7500, November, $1825 end May).



What this means according to precedent is that we NEED to retest at least that 7500 (+or- 20%) region before progressing. It's just the bitcoin way. This is an uncapitalised asset class that's rapidly capitalising and there's so much clamour to get in that it can't do it smoothly.

The low of $8455 we saw on Bitstamp a couple of hours ago may or may not be the bottom of the wick. To complete the full depth of the needed correction we may have to revisit the $7500 level or even 6k at a pinch to really bake in the last runup but that could just as easily manifest as a momentary panic "fat finger" dump before retracing back up the decline to around the $13k level which is 50% of the consolidation we've had since the peak.


How Does this Compare to the 2013 bubble ?

In fact the 2013 rally and that nightmare 18 month recovery followed exactly the same pattern. The reason it took so long to recover is because it went straight from $126 all the way to the top in 7 straight weeks without any of these bubble-bursting corrections on the way (or even mini corrections). That meant that the last support level was the so called "Cyprus spike" way back in April 2013 when it spiked at $266. And sure enough - according to form - it went all the way back to retest that level and a bit more for good measure. Note this is very different to the situation we have now on 3 counts:

1. the rise from $1000 to $19k (16k realistically) is comparable in relative terms but has taken a whole year instead of just 7 weeks

2. we have 3 fairly hefty consolidations which more or less overlap each other and we've almost arrived at the last of those already

3. the correction is rapid and deep which is a good sign because it snaps the market quickly back into a more reasonable trend that can be sustained (see previous "propellor corrections how they've played out).

Note: the angle between the support level and the 3 retracement lines in the 2013 chart below. You can see from that that the closer the retracement occurs to the peak blow-off, the higher the bottom will be. 2014 went low because it retraced so slowly and didn't hit the fan-line for a whole year.

Conclusion is, this means the bottom will be in fairly quickly and it's likely to be in the region of the $7500 level +/- 20% in my opinion followed by a fairly rapid (21 day) retrace to the upside as shorts close and off-book demand goes back onto the order books. If not, there are still a furter two consolidation levels available below that but it'd be a brave shorter that would put a lot of money behind adverse trades at those levels given the precedents IMO.

[Vlada69]

Will have to congratulate the 4 who voted for 9k.

[btcbeliever]

The 2014 rhyme continues , back to 6-7k now again then a slow climb to 11-12 one final time where break out fails and the long slow slide to 2-2.5k at year end can finally begin. Get this price down so we can get these gox coins at decent prices and then ride the 100k train in 2021.

Been worried about this for months...maybe ive been delusional this whole time with the thinking that "another bear market cant last that long, institutional money now".....

You definitely have not been delusional, and your vision will be rewarded in season.  Stay the course and attain the reward!

Bitcoin investing is not for everyone, it takes tremendous patience and vision.  Those who have those qualities have always been richly rewarded!

[Last of the V8s]

2hrs ago Tether no withdrawals and deposits on Poloniex. Hence panic dump?

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]
 

I made 2 price predictions in the space of 2 days,............. This is not meant in jest, but I really think you need to see a health professional.  All this frustration and anger can't be doing you any good. I seriously think you have an issue and need to calm down.

Oh yes.  You should be taken seriously, and you likely are an "expert" or at least in the ballpark of one at understanding reality through the intertubes and the personas that you insightfully assess therein.  My avatar shows signs of crazy, too, right? 

Anyhow, yep I am totally agreeing that you seem to have an above average grasp of the whole situation, and perhaps you are a doctor in real life, just like you have a real good grasp on the BTC price "probably will" go to $3k.

[Rosewater Foundation]

2hrs ago Tether no withdrawals and deposits on Poloniex. Hence panic dump?

Maybe Mr Kobayashi just getting warmed up.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Anybody going to call a bottom?

[Rosewater Foundation]

Anybody going to call a bottom?

Eventually.

[acquafredda]

Not to feed Torque's conspiracy theories but it does seem rather odd that the trustee would dump on exchanges and not do a deal OTC considering the numbers involved.
I am sure he would have got a better deal for his BTC rather than crashing the market like this?
Almost seems like a deliberate attempt to dampen the market yet again. /tinfoil hat/

Why wouldn't you want to feed my conspiracy theories? Lol  

No but seriously, are people really buying that this trustee was able to time the top of the market perfectly at $20k, and sell that much bitcoin on exchange risking mega slippage instead of just doing a public OTC auction/private sale?

Orly? There are many wealthy individual and institutional investors that would probably jump at the chance to purchase that much bitcoin off-exchange.

Keep in mind that the media can make up whatever FUD bullshit they want and put it out there, and the public has no choice but to accept it at face value...

Bravo Torque, a deliberate attempt to dampen the market, spot on.  What worries me the most is that there many many coins in the hands of our Japanese Trustee.  We are talking of 160K Bitcoins.  
Why getting things right has to be tagged as conspiracy, that's another thing I don't get.

[explorer]

Dominoes...

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/banking-crisis/lativa-banking-crisis-unfolding-on-schedule-will-may-be-a-european-contagion/

[Imbatman]

Regarding my editing out of my own text, I sometimes engage in that practice to save space, and I perceive that there is frequently no need to repeat content when it can be easily linked back to.   You want to make long additions to walls of text for no fucking reason, you goofball?   

I think I hear Alanis Morissette in the background...

I would need more of a reference than that in order to understand that puzzling response.

Isn't it Ironic , that you wouldn't get it

[infofront]

Anybody going to call a bottom?

We've seen it at $9,200 USD. It's going to be a very rough slog for the next few days.

I'm good with that. Out of everyone here, you might be the expert at spotting a bottom.

[HairyMaclairy]

I haven’t done the numbers but is 2k coins really enough to push the market from 20k to 13k?  This is during a week when 500k coins were traded.

[RejectedBanana]

The symmetry of this beast is astonishing...

So far.


4H candles

[cAPSLOCK]

The symmetry of this beast is astonishing...

So far.


4H candles

I certainly like your arrow.  What symmetry?

[STT]

I have to say these recent weeks and especially the last 24 hours have made me a little less comfortable... or even slightly worried. Gains come very slowly only to be wiped away at rate 2.0 in a couple of hours. I'm just a newbie with about a year of experience, but this seems more intense

Its not especially pronounced, the moves up have been bigger so then the move down correlates to that.   There are still echos of the ATH which was fierce imo.   We are still far higher then I thought we'd get in total.   Last summer was about the target I had for this (bullish) move overall.   By now I expected we'd be repeating a much more boring sideways type consolidation, just retracting while actual trade markets underneath develop which does take more time then the market jostles up and down.

8838  bottom pricing but thats my 30 second take :p    The largest bar down was through the upper band of a long term positive channel so I presume the lower band would then buffer the decline and present some buying also

Regarding my editing out of my own text, I sometimes engage in that practice for no fucking reason, you goofball?  

I think I hear Alanis Morissette in the background...

Sometimes less is more for sure  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yoSwdWG7EI

[RejectedBanana]

The symmetry of this beast is astonishing...

So far.

I certainly like your arrow.  What symmetry?

Really? Ok, maybe my mammalian brain is just pattern-seeking...


4H candles (Jan - Present)