Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Majormax]

After years of watching bitcoin, I can confidently say for it now, "The more the dump, the better the jump!"

Dominance back up to 45.5%. Crypto market-cap now $275 billion. I'm speculating it can't go less than $250 billion.

It is unlikely to go below 100B, but I think well below 250B is a certainty in the next year or so.

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[doc12]

RSI on the daily is almost at 30, double bottom maybe ?  Trendline on the linear @6800

[conspirosphere.tk]

Want to see a bullish chart?

[Anon136]

After years of watching bitcoin, I can confidently say for it now, "The more the dump, the better the jump!"

Dominance back up to 45.5%. Crypto market-cap now $275 billion. I'm speculating it can't go less than $250 billion.

It is unlikely to go below 100B, but I think well below 250B is a certainty in the next year or so.

Time is compressed these days. Each boom and each bust is compressed into a shorter and shorter amount of time. I am a lot less sure of my predictions on how low it will go than I am with the prediction that, how ever low it ends up going, I do not think this will be a protracted multi year long ordeal like it was in the past.

[El duderino_]

also, masterluc says...blah blah

Why do people still listen to those who made crazy predictions in the past and were all wrong?
None of them predicted the pull back from 20K to 7-8K did they?

Masterluc, Cliff High, Tone Vays, McAfee.

 

They believe in "long-term", not in short-term like you.

NO there is no word about "term"  or nex time you will say : they believe in super-looong term  ... 

Traders Will Just allways running few steps behind and they Just don’t see the whole picture , Just let them in there Own world Where they look for the master predicter that doesn’t exist and Try to make all the trades on TA analys of 100 diffrent masters etc...... for making quick buck’s but long term losses and ending up with less btc’s

for the rest of us Just hodl and buy the dips When possible :-)

just get the uppertunity to by some btc's of a panic seller .... hopefully its going to happen    price is so good even if its go's a little deeper i'm happy to buy @this rates   

[Majormax]

After years of watching bitcoin, I can confidently say for it now, "The more the dump, the better the jump!"

Dominance back up to 45.5%. Crypto market-cap now $275 billion. I'm speculating it can't go less than $250 billion.

It is unlikely to go below 100B, but I think well below 250B is a certainty in the next year or so.

Time is compressed these days. Each boom and each bust is compressed into a shorter and shorter amount of time. I am a lot less sure of my predictions on how low it will go than I am with the prediction that, how ever low it ends up going, I do not think this will be a protracted multi year long ordeal like it was in the past.

You could be right, in the sense that,  in stock/commodity cycle highs and lows, Time and Price have a relationship. eg If Price reaches one target, then time may not reach another, and vice-versa. ie.. one or the other can be targeted more easily than both.

[RejectedBanana]

Previous Bitcoin corrections have largely been driven by amateur speculation. Any whales that existed were early adopters, merchants or exchanges: Lucky, unsavory, or entrepreneurial sons of bitches, more or less.

2017 marked the beginning of true institutional interest and speculation. Prior to this, the market cap was so low, institutions were basically barred entry due to a lack of serious value/supply, regulation, infrastructure and legitimacy. And here we are now in 2018 with futures markets, MSM coverage, regulations on the horizon, congressional hearings, even exchanges on the cusp of appearing legitimate, and much more on the way. Analysts predict the crypto market cap to breach a trillion soon enough in the years to come.

However, this Mt Gox bankruptcy case illustrates the issues institutions face when trying to enter or exit this relatively small crypto market. A $400MM to $2B court-ordered liquidation is no small beans to be sure, but it's a mere drop in the global commodities bucket, especially considering full liquidation will take place over months to years. If Bitcoin really wants to be taken seriously by the big boys, dozens of Mt Goxes need to be able to enter and exit the market at any given time, without the whole market melting down, psychologically or otherwise.

And so 2018 marks a pivot point. Amateur speculators are spooked beyond belief and exiting the market in droves. But I think institutions are just starting to lick their chops and down-right salivate over the opportunity being handed to them. A global commodity that can and will be fiat-regulated, with a deflationary supply that cannot be artificially modified, an immutable public ledger, and unbreakable security if done right, barring any quantum leaps. We all know the technological benefits of Bitcoin are a dream come true for institutions, much more so than for the average Joe Public. Amateur speculators have been dreaming for this moment, the day when institutions take their little pet project seriously.

So what I don't understand is why everyone is suddenly running away, quitting the race, and basically just handing over the reins to the big boys for what is gearing up to be only 15% of December's price?

Because of one Mt Gox? Because of fear of regulation? Because of a crackdown on scammers? Because of fucking Google advertisements?

What gives, people? Isn't this what we were all waiting for?

I'm seeing a lot of talk of a protracted crypto winter like we saw in 2014. Do we honestly think the big boys are going to wait that long?

That's like leaving a massive, meaty pachyderm carcass on the savannah, expecting the lions and vultures will just leave it alone for you through the winter.

[serveria.com]

I don't give a crap about what is happening now - I will HODL all the way down to $1 if needed! But I really doubt we're going below $5k this time.

[yefi]

It is unlikely to go below 100B, but I think well below 250B is a certainty in the next year or so.

How'd you figure that one out when you've said BTC is going to $2K and the alts are doomed?

[kronos123]

The previous hype we saw in the past on bitcoins will most likely be nothing compared to future HYPE when Bitcoin will truly become Mainstream!
It is only at the beginning, as were Apple, Microsoft and Intel in 1994-95.

The mega capital of pension funds, hedges, insurance companies, ETFs, etc. I'm still out of Bitcoin and blockchain, but most likely have already decided to come in .... and they will do it their way. They certainly do not enter the market when Btc and Eth are at $ 20,000 and $ 1,000!
It is no coincidence that on Bitcoin futures rumors rose from $ 5,000 to $ 20000 in a month, and soon thereafter the "slow descent" began.
It is a clear sign, in prices and time, that they have left for those who can see behind the appearance of a causal market.

They will enter their way, with low prices, when almost everyone will be tired, angry, scared and exhausted ..... the people will sell (excluding the old and big holders, the early adopters) and they will buy.



In the last month a lot of good news came out for Bitcoin and many other coins, but the market has literally ignored them; in the past all this would have triggered a crazy hype while today the FUD reigns supreme.

Probably with the G20 tomorrow will give a further downward pressure.





I hope that the descent will end in the area of ​​$ 3000, trendline of very long period.

[Anon136]

It is my b-day!  Rise .. market .. rise..

https://youtu.be/oHUIU3HG1rk?t=1m

You could be right, in the sense that,  in stock/commodity cycle highs and lows, Time and Price have a relationship. eg If Price reaches one target, then time may not reach another, and vice-versa. ie.. one or the other can be targeted more easily than both.

Here is an article with a nicly overlayed chart but at 3x speed.

http://telegra.ph/Inferno-market-outlook-The-Double-Bubble-Analysis-03-16

Credit to who ever posted this in the thread earlier.

[Toxic2040]

Jesus fasted for 40 days he came out and everything worked out just fine...

that reminds me

insufficiently sized rock day is coming up isn't it?

+1 WOsMerit  

Also coming up next week is a call out for a "Crypto Hour". Regardless of your views on who is where and doing what...I think this is a good idea. It is a good place to show the world we are a community and there is solidarity for making our world a better place. Just my 2 sats.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/russians-call-for-crypto-hour-turn-off-all-mining-equipment-for-ecological-awareness  

-edit-

Something is wrong. This glade is alot shorter than predicted.

 
+1 WOsMerit

Economies of Scale.

-edit-
hacked or bonkers?

neither just california...

+1 WOsMerit  

So true..great place to visit or do business but so glad I no longer live there.

A few more days and we will hit 20 000 for sure!

Oh do not misunderstand, i was referring to pages in this topic

+1 WOsMerit        lol'd

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Worldwide, Bitcoin adoption is even lower than the few percent it shows here. With only 20 million funded Bitcoin addresses, and at least a few addresses used by each user, Bitcoin is used by at most 0.1% of the world population.

(I can't believe I never posted here, now I can finally get this thread in my New replies list)

Welcome. I predict we will reach over 1% by 2020.

Be welcome.

The user numbers are a mere fraction like 1/5 of wallets, since everybody of us uses 2~3 exchanges featuring new addresses. Been cutof from one site, new registrations "pending" forever. Currently registering more new sites than really needed, because they are just blocking new users.

Falling like a rock. Bitcoin FAIL of 2018

Looks like capitulation draws nigh...always encouraging when legends tremble. Must almost be time to start buying.

Nothing particularly new to show on a chart but I am keeping a close eye on volume today.

[Majormax]

It is unlikely to go below 100B, but I think well below 250B is a certainty in the next year or so.

How'd you figure that one out when you've said BTC is going to $2K and the alts are doomed?

This is how ... Rough figures only.  All fits together if you consider my other prognosis : Not all alts are doomed (just most of them , numerically). Some will be in for very big rises : their market cap share will rise relative to BTC.


Very roughly :  BTC at ~2k = 40BN, Best 20 alts at $60BN total, gives a bottom of ~100BN.

[fabiorem]

This is how ... Rough figures only.  All fits together if you consider my other prognosis : Not all alts are doomed (just most of them , numerically). Some will be in for very big rises : their market cap share will rise relative to BTC.


Very roughly :  BTC at ~2k = 40BN, Best 20 alts at $60BN total, gives a bottom of ~100BN.

How much time do you think we will be at 2k, considering the fundamentals and the increasing adoption by big investors?

[Raja_MBZ]

Very roughly :  BTC at ~2k = 40BN, Best 20 alts at $60BN total, gives a bottom of ~100BN.

If that ever happens, I'll do what McAffee has promised for 2020 1 million's prediction.

[Majormax]

This is how ... Rough figures only.  All fits together if you consider my other prognosis : Not all alts are doomed (just most of them , numerically). Some will be in for very big rises : their market cap share will rise relative to BTC.


Very roughly :  BTC at ~2k = 40BN, Best 20 alts at $60BN total, gives a bottom of ~100BN.

How much time do you think we will be at 2k, considering the fundamentals and the increasing adoption by big investors?

Well, thats a tricky one, but if past history is anything to go by, the low print could be instantaneous, ie less than a day. (or it might be a double bottom)

[Majormax]

Very roughly :  BTC at ~2k = 40BN, Best 20 alts at $60BN total, gives a bottom of ~100BN.

If that ever happens, I'll do what McAffee has promised for 2020 1 million's prediction.

Ever and Never are bold or foolish words.

[Cassius]

Here is an article with a nicly overlayed chart but at 3x speed.

http://telegra.ph/Inferno-market-outlook-The-Double-Bubble-Analysis-03-16

Credit to who ever posted this in the thread earlier.

Cheers
It's also worth comparing against April 2013's aftermath. That one bottomed out in 3 months.
I won't call this one other than to say given the correlation so far, I struggle to see more than another 2 months downward, maximum. That's if we haven't already seen the bottom at $6k, 6 weeks ago.

[btcbeliever]

Bloodbath to $2k incoming.

I wish it would happen that quickly, but unfortunately it will take some time.

Regarding drop to $2k no one here knows anything for sure, really.  It can turn on a dime and shoot up at anytime.  No one can deny that is a definite possibility.

Just give it a few years, and if another bull market ever comes along in bitcoin like 2013 and 2017, then sell more aggressively so you have funds to buy it back instead of feeling so depressed with the price drops.

[xhomerx10]

Very roughly :  BTC at ~2k = 40BN, Best 20 alts at $60BN total, gives a bottom of ~100BN.

If that ever happens, I'll do what McAffee has promised for 2020 1 million's prediction.

I hope you realize that John plans to eat this -