Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

wow

ether's done innit?

what are you talking about? flash crash on Kraken?

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[Cassius]

There's some talk of a looming Death Cross (50/200 daily MA crossover) from 'pro' analysts. If there's manipulation afoot it's probably to avoid that, which would happen above around $9k in the coming week.

Yup. It was about to happen at the end of this week... right now, with a little more pump it will be avoid or could even look as a bounce on it. Donno if it is "manipulation" or pure market dynamics... but it's refreshing at this time.

P.S.: Also, many times a death cross is followed by an inmediate golden cross, especially when the cross happens so near to the "bottom". ANyway... fuck TA.

I don't rate it as an indicator, especially at this point in the crypto market cycle. But it's not a little suspicious that as that TA hits the news, a mystery pump pushes it towards the safety zone.

[jbreher]

Back where we were before the weekend.
Last 2 days = wiped from my memory.
Continue as before please.

Really, I was preparing to even coldwallet my trading coins and just move to other things for a very long time as I did in 2014.

What's keeping you from doing exactly that?

Addiction to bitcointalk.org?

[Last of the V8s]

oh yeah that reminds me. bcash lol pump week

whoa all the other shitcoins up a lot too. 40% for many

[SidETH]

oh yeah that reminds me. bcash lol pump week

Hope so. Then I will sell the shit out of all those coins and buy more btc. Never sold any since the fork.

[El duderino_]

Monday pump

allways love it
green green green gogogogo

[Biodom]

maybe btc is different, but pumps like this are typical for bear markets.
bull usually does not involve 20-30% day gains (apart from blowoff tops).
we shall see.

[jojo69]

wow

ether's done innit?

No offence to it's fans.

Boy I sure hope so.  So many thing about that project are bad ideas.  And Layer 2 on BTC is going to crush it.

I get all that, but that leaves us...ripple...as #2...

[Last of the V8s]

wow

ether's done innit?

No offence to it's fans.

Boy I sure hope so.  So many thing about that project are bad ideas.  And Layer 2 on BTC is going to crush it.

I get all that, but that leaves us...ripple...as #2...

sir when ripplening?

[Rosewater Foundation]

Speaking of coins. bglod is disappearing. prolly shoulda got around to dumpening those

[cAPSLOCK]

maybe btc is different, but pumps like this are typical for bear markets.
bull usually does not involve 20-30% day gains (apart from blowoff tops).
we shall see.

I hate to say it, but you are probably right.

Still... you DO see bigass candles on bigass volume when markets TURN.

Is that happening?  Million dollar (1btc?) question.

[Torque]

maybe btc is different, but pumps like this are typical for bear markets.
bull usually does not involve 20-30% day gains (apart from blowoff tops).
we shall see.

I hate to say it, but you are probably right.

Still... you DO see bigass candles on bigass volume when markets TURN.

Is that happening?  Million dollar (1btc?) question.

Not to be Debbie Downer, but do you remember in summer of 2014 when:

1. Price was held steady sideways @ $420/btc for nearly 2-1/2 months. Almost the whole summer. This felt like forever.

2. Price then pumped with bull flags to ~$650/btc. or so. Many said this was the sign that the downturn and sideways was over.

3. Price crashed again in 2015 to ~$200/btc. .... nearly 7 months later!

That's why I've never trusted this market. Once whales have control of the float, they can peg it wherever they want for whatever length of time they wish.

Just buy on a set schedule and fuggedaboutit. Like you would with gold or silver.

[cAPSLOCK]

maybe btc is different, but pumps like this are typical for bear markets.
bull usually does not involve 20-30% day gains (apart from blowoff tops).
we shall see.

I hate to say it, but you are probably right.

Still... you DO see bigass candles on bigass volume when markets TURN.

Is that happening?  Million dollar (1btc?) question.

Not to be Debbie Downer, but do you remember in summer of 2014 when:

1. Price was held steady sideways @ $420/btc for nearly 2-1/2 months. Almost the whole summer. This felt like forever.

2. Price then pumped with bull flags to ~$650/btc. or so. Many said this was the sign that the downturn and sideways was over.

3. Price crashed again in 2015 to ~$200/btc. .... nearly 7 months later!

That's why I've never trusted this market. Once whales have control of the float, they can peg it wherever they want for whatever length of time they wish.

Oh, I remember.

And I think that scenario is somewhat LESS likely than the one I posited.  But I think the original scenario is most likely.  We are still in a bear, but hopefully not one that needs to last years.

That said, I do still see a lot of reasons to hope.  Fundamentals are WAY different now than they were in 2014.  In 2014 Bitcoin was magical internet money.  Today it is *nearly* a household word.  Free(ish) nations are inching towards giving it room to grow as opposed to regulating it to death (we still have a lot to see here... and the next two days will be interesting)  At the same time the scourge of "ICO"s is under scrutiny, which I consider to be good.  Roguish and authoritarian states are either mining or creating cryptos.  Mixed, but goodish.  Layer 2 is in!  It's like the birth of the web.  The internet had been around for years.  Then suddenly there were all these pages with this guy on them:


And that's where we are.  The real use cases are coming.

There are a lot of really smart people in the world.  And they are the ones who have the money.  Some don't like this fact, but it is what it is.

They are going to figure out what we have known for years.

Soon.™

[JayJuanGee]

I have made money from the last bull run and withdrawn it into my bank to not care about this drop. One thing I am certain, I will buy back when the market is favorable. I have small orders already filled but big ones waiting at the very bottom. Dont be scared. Bitcoin from the very start is like this. We've seen worse. It will recover.

I closed off my short on the last terrific shake down to 7.3k. Too much profit to ignore.

Then I thought - before starting to nurse it again, why not go long?

So I have a long position now, from the past low. It's in profit right now, but I would like to wait a bit more before closing and reversing it.

So, I think this is the problem with margin trading. You begin cautiously - it's a hedge, you know - and before you know it, you turn into a gambler. A winning gambler for the time being, but that's the point: the change in attitude. Using margin trading properly and sticking to the plan - ot at least to the mindset - requires lots of discipline.

My hunch about quick-reversing and longing is still paying out, but if I manage to close this in profit, I'm going back to my safety short. Then let it go down to 2k. I won't care.

It seems that we are thinking about this in a similar way, but I think that if you can set your orders in such a way that it minimizes the gambling aspect, then you have yourself a system that you can follow for the long term.  But you are likely correct in your instinct that one bad trade could wipe out 10 profitable ones, perhaps.

[Typex]

When using RSI as a technical indicator, what is the appropriate time period to be using?  For a large portion of the past day the RSI has been 60-70ish.  Will we likely see a drop in the price in the coming days?

[criptix]

NO G20/EU regulations!!!!

I LOVE MAMA MERKEL!!!!!

[fragout]

NO G20/EU regulations!!!!

I LOVE MAMA MERKEL!!!!!

Link ?

[Typex]

NO G20/EU regulations!!!!

I LOVE MAMA MERKEL!!!!!

Link ?

Its been acknowledged as the reason to the pump we have had over the past day.

[JayJuanGee]

Speaking of capitulation, I'm CONSIDERING starting to contemplate selling a batch - if I can - between $7.5-$8k before end of March just to get the tax monkey off my back. Sent an email to my accountant asking what the penalty is on $xM deferred from Q1 to Q2.

Seriously.

Sheeeit.

No proud to admit this.

Also, I've come to recognize everyone doing trade analysis of Bitcoin is full of shit.
EVERYONE.

Last summer majormax said there would be no new ATH for another few years. Bitcoin hit a $20k ATH half a year later.

... the trend is now down, and there will not be a new all time high for a couple of years or more.

This is a repeat of early 2014, the patterns are easy to see. The variation now is that the alts have a larger share of total market capitalisation. Capital will flow back to BTC, but it will not reverse the trend overall.

2 year view, BTC will fall 65% from the peak, alts will fall 70-90%  (with many going to zero ultimately)

Today he's making the same prediction of a few years of bear market without another ATH. His trade analysis of Bitcoin is full of shit.

. ... and you are not ready to sell yet, but would be more ready at say $2500.

The key thing now (and it will prove impossible for most people) is to accept that whatever you hold will decline in $ price by another 75% (making 90% decline in total), and that will take place in a grinding downwards pattern, including long counter-trend rallies, spread over ~2 years.

Like you mentioned, many of the bear shills predict the same bullshit over and over and over again.  Sure, some days they are partially correct especially during periods of price correction - but they are largely wishing and spreading misinformation because a lot of opportunities would be missed if you followed their suggestion by either selling or buying less than you otherwise would during opportune price correction periods.

And Bob's statement about EVERYONE being wrong largely amounts to a whimpy-ass and emotional capitulation outburst. Sure some folks are more wrong than others, but one of the dynamics that is most predictable in bitcoin is price volatility in one direction or another and frequently overshooting expectations.  There remain ways to profit from volatility, even when the whole process of buying on the way down and selling on the way up can be painful, especially during periods of overshooting.

[Rosewater Foundation]

Well, it was fun while it lasted

His Flying Noodliness hears all prayers.

(Sometimes the answer is no)