Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

also, masterluc says...blah blah

Why do people still listen to those who made crazy predictions in the past and were all wrong?
None of them predicted the pull back from 20K to 7-8K did they?

Masterluc, Cliff High, Tone Vays, McAfee.

 

They believe in "long-term", not in short-term like you.

My long term prediction I made August 2017 simply based on doubling each year:
2018 2000
2019 4000
2020 8000
2021 16000
2022 32000
2023 64000
2024 128000
2025 256000

I have nothing against Masterluc, Cliff High, Tone Vays, McAfee saying it will moon sometime in several years 5-10 or whatever (most of us here do otherwise we wouldn't invest our money and time) but a lot of their technical babble in the mean time has been proven wrong hence my comment.

I merited your earlier post, mostly because I appreciate an anti-sorcerer comment now and then, because sometimes it seems that guys are getting into too much sorcerer reliance.. and sometimes, want to be viewed as sorcerers, too.

Doubling every year is not a bad idea or framework, and if you are starting with $1,000 for 2017, $500 for 2016, and $250 for 2015 - even if you are  largely correct, you seem to be selectively and purposefully low-balling, especially when we have seen $20k for 2017... so you either seem to be purposefully skewing down your expectations or you are engaged in a state of unrealism.   

We are also NOT going to get linear BTC performance.. so even an average of 2x every years seems to just be a kind of stab in the dark that is not really based on anything except for a kind of dream about how the world should be rather than how it is, especially with a considerable likelihood that bitcoin is in a exponential curve which will not likely be held back by 2x (or linear) expectations. 

I believe masterluc predicted 20k down to around 9k before we were at 9k. I’d say that’s not a bad guess.

I would not assert that there are decent predictions and predictions tools and a large number of the persons who are better at predicting do so with probability assertions rather than certainty.. So, when the outcome of a prediction ends up happening, such prediction is in line with what the predictor had asserted to be most probable.  Frequently, there is too much credit given, and even suggestions that the predictor knew something about the future.. and they don't... they are just assigning probabilities.

Remember Vinny Lingham was correct on a few of his predictions, and many people (including himself, seemingly) were beginning to assign him sorcerer status, and then in March 2017, he was all over the media preaching BTC doom and gloom in the sub $1k price territories and even seeming to strongly suggest that peeps sell their bitcoins, don't buy bitcoins (and even perhaps short bitcoin) at those prices.  Some folks got reckt to the extent they overly relied on "designated" sorcerer Vinny in those days.

A Couple of days ago, I posted a link to one of his doom and gloom prognostications from March 17, 2017.  See below:

I was listening to the Adam Meister show today on the World Crypto network, and he referred back to his show from one year ago, on March 17, 2017, in  which Vinny Lingham came onto his show, unannounced and predicted that bitcoin was going to then hardfork and go down to below $500 or some other such nonsense.  I think that Vinny lost quite a bit of credibility from the strength of his conviction on that date, but the strength of his conviction did cause several bitcoin HODLers to sell and to fail to buy more bitcoin during what ended up being the 2017 low price of bitcoin at about $890-ish.

2 hour YouTube presentation of Adam Meister show from March 17, 2017 - with surprise guest Vinny Lingham who predicted BTC prices were going to crash to below $500 after hardfork

Even though it is a 2 hour video, it has a certain importance in bitcoin history, and shows that credible folks can make strong predictions and stir up disagreement that end up being wrong.

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[pfrtlpfmpf]

Well, it was fun while it lasted

His Flying Noodliness hears all prayers.

(Sometimes the answer is no)

Buy when there is marinara in the streets.

At "Noodliness" i stepped out, let alone "flying", but my toothbrush is my god, that i´m sure of !

[El duderino_]

Bitcoin is unfolding like the dotcom crash — just 15 times faster

Edit: Amazon crashed from a high of over $100, to a low of about $10 in 2000. 18 years later, they hit $1,578. If we apply the same recovery gain percentage to the recent bitcoin low of ~$6,000, and assume 15x recovery speed, we'd hit ~$946,000 in Apr. 2019. This is all based on questionable math and a clickbait article, but still fun to think about.

let it come i am ready

[bitserve]

Back where we were before the weekend.
Last 2 days = wiped from my memory.
Continue as before please.

Really, I was preparing to even coldwallet my trading coins and just move to other things for a very long time as I did in 2014.

What's keeping you from doing exactly that?

Addiction to bitcointalk.org?

Yeah, something about that too... but it is more that for some reason (addiction most probably) I feel that I need to keep babysitting my orders and follow news, bitcointalk, etc.... To really hodl and forget about Bitcoin I would need to stop trading completely. I suppose I would still visit here once in a while... or maybe not....

[Sitarow]

You guys think Bitcoin is the only thing plagued by FUD?

Look at Facebook:

Years of nothing but bull rally and the MSM is all sunshine, rainbows and lollipops on the stock.

But when technicals start to breakdown and signal a rollover in the stock, suddenly out of left field some shit FUD comes out about Cambridge Analytica. Perfectly timed, no less.

Fucking hilarious to me. All markets are rigged.  

Considering there are...what...3 companies that control all of US media...they have it pretty much in the bag on how they can manipulate things.

Before we had bitcoin many where clueless as to economy and market forces. However since then we have had a tsunami of newbie traders and market watchers and even some old school tactics by unsavory types expose the crypto community to things like penny stock fraud aka fraudulent ico's or fork's that lead to - insider trading - market collusion - and so on...

Armed with this new perspective. What once was hard if not impossible to recognize by the general public, has been made slightly opaque in its nature.

Factor in software analytics of usage cases and we get studies about how twitter participation has influenced public opinion in both social, and political perspectives.

If applied to crypto market, factor in the open nature of the distributed model with its abundant market transactions. What the G20 discussion alluded to is that there is presently laws in place that can crack down on crypto exchange operations complying with conformity.

IMO such a move will end another thorn in the crypto market. By removing the obscurity associated with the old paradigm of means of trade. Moves like this makes things like decentralized exchange a possibility.

"Necessity is the mother of invention"

[600watt]

Bitcoin is unfolding like the dotcom crash — just 15 times faster

Edit: Amazon crashed from a high of over $100, to a low of about $10 in 2000. 18 years later, they hit $1,578. If we apply the same recovery gain percentage to the recent bitcoin low of ~$6,000, and assume 15x recovery speed, we'd hit ~$946,000 in Apr. 2019. This is all based on questionable math and a clickbait article, but still fun to think about.

$946k per btc in about a year? if that comes true I will buy a lambo for everyone that merits this post.

[mymenace]

Bitcoin is unfolding like the dotcom crash — just 15 times faster

Edit: Amazon crashed from a high of over $100, to a low of about $10 in 2000. 18 years later, they hit $1,578. If we apply the same recovery gain percentage to the recent bitcoin low of ~$6,000, and assume 15x recovery speed, we'd hit ~$946,000 in Apr. 2019. This is all based on questionable math and a clickbait article, but still fun to think about.

let it come i am ready

bitcoin has died 269 times

https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoinobituaries/


BUY THE DIP!!!!

[xhomerx10]

Bitcoin is unfolding like the dotcom crash — just 15 times faster

Edit: Amazon crashed from a high of over $100, to a low of about $10 in 2000. 18 years later, they hit $1,578. If we apply the same recovery gain percentage to the recent bitcoin low of ~$6,000, and assume 15x recovery speed, we'd hit ~$946,000 in Apr. 2019. This is all based on questionable math and a clickbait article, but still fun to think about.

$946k per btc in about a year? if that comes true I will buy a lambo for everyone that merits this post.

 Yeah yeah. Sure. We've heard that one before!!  ...and a drink too I suppose?  

[cAPSLOCK]

Bitcoin is unfolding like the dotcom crash — just 15 times faster

Edit: Amazon crashed from a high of over $100, to a low of about $10 in 2000. 18 years later, they hit $1,578. If we apply the same recovery gain percentage to the recent bitcoin low of ~$6,000, and assume 15x recovery speed, we'd hit ~$946,000 in Apr. 2019. This is all based on questionable math and a clickbait article, but still fun to think about.

$946k per btc in about a year? if that comes true I will buy a lambo for everyone that merits this post.

Gotta admit I am a sucker for an asymmetrical bet.

I mean... aren't we all, kinda?

[xhomerx10]

Bitcoin is unfolding like the dotcom crash — just 15 times faster

Edit: Amazon crashed from a high of over $100, to a low of about $10 in 2000. 18 years later, they hit $1,578. If we apply the same recovery gain percentage to the recent bitcoin low of ~$6,000, and assume 15x recovery speed, we'd hit ~$946,000 in Apr. 2019. This is all based on questionable math and a clickbait article, but still fun to think about.

$946k per btc in about a year? if that comes true I will buy a lambo for everyone that merits this post.

Gotta admit I am a sucker for an asymmetrical bet.

I mean... aren't we all, kinda?

 So you don't think the merit will be worth more than $946k by the end of the year?  Fingers crossed....

[JayJuanGee]

maybe btc is different, but pumps like this are typical for bear markets.
bull usually does not involve 20-30% day gains (apart from blowoff tops).
we shall see.

I hate to say it, but you are probably right.

Still... you DO see bigass candles on bigass volume when markets TURN.

Is that happening?  Million dollar (1btc?) question.

Not to be Debbie Downer, but do you remember in summer of 2014 when:

1. Price was held steady sideways @ $420/btc for nearly 2-1/2 months. Almost the whole summer. This felt like forever.

2. Price then pumped with bull flags to ~$650/btc. or so. Many said this was the sign that the downturn and sideways was over.

3. Price crashed again in 2015 to ~$200/btc. .... nearly 7 months later!

That's why I've never trusted this market. Once whales have control of the float, they can peg it wherever they want for whatever length of time they wish.

Just buy on a set schedule and fuggedaboutit. Like you would with gold or silver.

Yeah right....        You don't give up with your market manipulation theories and your feelings of impending doom.  From a positive perspective, that is a sign of one sturdy and turdy shell-shocked bitcoin soldier.

[Wekkel]

Meanwhile, my Bitcoin is still fiat-worth more than a good part of 2017. No complaints here 

[600watt]

Bitcoin is unfolding like the dotcom crash — just 15 times faster

Edit: Amazon crashed from a high of over $100, to a low of about $10 in 2000. 18 years later, they hit $1,578. If we apply the same recovery gain percentage to the recent bitcoin low of ~$6,000, and assume 15x recovery speed, we'd hit ~$946,000 in Apr. 2019. This is all based on questionable math and a clickbait article, but still fun to think about.

$946k per btc in about a year? if that comes true I will buy a lambo for everyone that merits this post.

 Yeah yeah. Sure. We've heard that one before!!  ...and a drink too I suppose?  

a measly drink? what about a brewery?

[xhomerx10]

Bitcoin is unfolding like the dotcom crash — just 15 times faster

Edit: Amazon crashed from a high of over $100, to a low of about $10 in 2000. 18 years later, they hit $1,578. If we apply the same recovery gain percentage to the recent bitcoin low of ~$6,000, and assume 15x recovery speed, we'd hit ~$946,000 in Apr. 2019. This is all based on questionable math and a clickbait article, but still fun to think about.

$946k per btc in about a year? if that comes true I will buy a lambo for everyone that merits this post.

 Yeah yeah. Sure. We've heard that one before!!  ...and a drink too I suppose?  

a measly drink? what about a brewery?

 You sir are a bad influence on my generally puritan lifestyle!

[Toxic2040]

Crypto starts at page 200.

CONCLUSION
Technology presents evolving challenges and generates new
solutions. Blockchain technology essentially stores and transmits
data securely, in large volume, and at high speeds. So far, the
technology has proved largely resistant to hacking, and given this
feature, developers first applied it to digital currencies. Yet
blockchain has many more potential applications, such as portable
medical records and securing the critical financial and energy
infrastructure that the
Report
identified.
Recommendations

Policymakers and the public should become more familiar
with digital currencies and other uses of blockchain
225
technology, which have a wide range of applications in the
future.

Regulators should continue to coordinate among each
other  to  guarantee  coherent  policy  frameworks,
definitions, and jurisdiction.

Policymakers,  regulators,  and  entrepreneurs  should
continue to work together to ensure developers can deploy
these new blockchain technologies quickly and in a
manner that protects Americans from fraud, theft, and
abuse,  while  ensuring  compliance  with  relevant
regulations.

Government agencies at all levels should consider and
examine new uses for this technology that could make the
government more efficient in performing its functions

https://www.congress.gov/115/crpt/hrpt596/CRPT-115hrpt596.pdf

[scum]

Bitcoin is unfolding like the dotcom crash — just 15 times faster

Edit: Amazon crashed from a high of over $100, to a low of about $10 in 2000. 18 years later, they hit $1,578. If we apply the same recovery gain percentage to the recent bitcoin low of ~$6,000, and assume 15x recovery speed, we'd hit ~$946,000 in Apr. 2019. This is all based on questionable math and a clickbait article, but still fun to think about.

$946k per btc in about a year? if that comes true I will buy a lambo for everyone that merits this post.

Is offering a lambo for meriting your post begging for merit excessively?

Do not beg for merit excessively.

PS

Do you mean a top of the range lambo, or one of the shit shaped ones that only cost half as much as the top of the range ones?

[slowlyslowly]

Bitcoin is unfolding like the dotcom crash — just 15 times faster

Edit: Amazon crashed from a high of over $100, to a low of about $10 in 2000. 18 years later, they hit $1,578. If we apply the same recovery gain percentage to the recent bitcoin low of ~$6,000, and assume 15x recovery speed, we'd hit ~$946,000 in Apr. 2019. This is all based on questionable math and a clickbait article, but still fun to think about.

$946k per btc in about a year? if that comes true I will buy a lambo for everyone that merits this post.

I am too new to have merits so in proportion can you give me the left hand wheel or one order lower the right to occasionally receive a picture of the inside of a glove box?

[Dakustaking76]

Bitcoin is unfolding like the dotcom crash — just 15 times faster

Edit: Amazon crashed from a high of over $100, to a low of about $10 in 2000. 18 years later, they hit $1,578. If we apply the same recovery gain percentage to the recent bitcoin low of ~$6,000, and assume 15x recovery speed, we'd hit ~$946,000 in Apr. 2019. This is all based on questionable math and a clickbait article, but still fun to think about.

$946k per btc in about a year? if that comes true I will buy a lambo for everyone that merits this post.

Is offering a lambo for meriting your post begging for merit excessively?

Do not beg for merit excessively.

Oh Damn i am now waiting for that price, then i Will sell my btc stash....
We Will have a longgggg longggg road

[motoprose]

Bitcoin is unfolding like the dotcom crash — just 15 times faster

Edit: Amazon crashed from a high of over $100, to a low of about $10 in 2000. 18 years later, they hit $1,578. If we apply the same recovery gain percentage to the recent bitcoin low of ~$6,000, and assume 15x recovery speed, we'd hit ~$946,000 in Apr. 2019. This is all based on questionable math and a clickbait article, but still fun to think about.

$946k per btc in about a year? if that comes true I will buy a lambo for everyone that merits this post.

 Yeah yeah. Sure. We've heard that one before!!  ...and a drink too I suppose?  

I'd like a ticket to the moon on space-x when seats are available for purchase.
I haven't had my midlife crisis yet.

[xhomerx10]

Bitcoin is unfolding like the dotcom crash — just 15 times faster

Edit: Amazon crashed from a high of over $100, to a low of about $10 in 2000. 18 years later, they hit $1,578. If we apply the same recovery gain percentage to the recent bitcoin low of ~$6,000, and assume 15x recovery speed, we'd hit ~$946,000 in Apr. 2019. This is all based on questionable math and a clickbait article, but still fun to think about.

$946k per btc in about a year? if that comes true I will buy a lambo for everyone that merits this post.

Is offering a lambo for meriting your post begging for merit excessively?

Do not beg for merit excessively.

 Naw, this thread is semi-autonomous.  We're like wild horses... or free-range chickens or some such thing.