Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[somac.]

I think China will be a driver of the btc price again, despite what people are saying I think they are close to disaster. I read a comment recently from a man who has a lot of business in China and has a lot of connections with high up party members and business leaders. Things don't sound good.

I agree. Other than ingraining a misguided sense of nationalism in the younger generations, China has done nothing over the past 10-15 years to become a more consumer driven economy. They have pumped billions of ponzi fiat money into their economy, which has done nothing except create rampant and irrational over speculation, especially in their tech stock market and in real estate.

The West is still the "consumer arm" of the entire world, and unfortunately the U.S. and other western nations can no longer hide the fact that consumer spending dropped off a fkn cliff about 5 years ago. The lack of consumer demand abroad is finally hitting China's shores, and they can no longer keep their own economy propped up with more fake borrowing and debt issuance.

It's all going to come crashing down. Soon^TM.

FYI the comment from the person I mentioned

Bring China to its knees - um - you know what? China has just realised that this is a possibility. China is realising that its switch to a consumer lead economy vs "factory to the world" will take a lot longer than anticipated and the powers that are know that food security is still a major problem. It is clear from our sources that there was a massive misread on the part of the Chinese who thought that Trump would back down. There is a lot happening in China right now pointing directly to trouble brewing - from protests by retired military personnel to paint and faeces being thrown on XJP pictures and court buildings (some thoughts that this is being stirred up from foreign sources so expect another "westerner" crackdown). So all up, this is a very dangerous time in China, XJP can not appear weak to the populace, thus the massive propaganda campaign underway (from WeChat to subway advertising, singing people in subways and the usual rules for media outlets). The soybean tariffs will be paid by the government if the beans are added to the strategic reserve - this alone shows what is really happening.  And as for the slowdown, well it is real, from Evergrande chairman to gov officials, it has been acknowledged as happening, but GDP will still print 6.7/6.8%.
Trumps timing was sublime - he actually caught the Chinese in full Moutai celebrations over the Xi for Life event and in so doing, made sure that Xi has to respond. Xi's real problem is that any response he makes from Yuan deval (we are hearing 10=15% being accepted) to imposing tariffs to limiting imports hurts China more than anything else. Your comment about China suddenly not needing 20% of its IO supplies from Oz is interesting. I had the same comment made to me when I was in Beijing last month.

[JayJuanGee]

Jimbo should be along shortly to remind you he's still rich. Nothing to worry about.

Exactamente!!!!!   That's how this bitcoin thingie-ma-jiggie rolls.   

[Totscha]

I'm taking a ride
With my best friend
I hope he never lets me down again

I hurt myself today
To see if I still feel
I focus on the pain
The only thing that's real.

There's no need for Johnny Cash at these price points. We'd need to hit the dreaded $1.3k

[Torque]

FYI the comment from the person I mentioned

Bring China to its knees - um - you know what? China has just realised that this is a possibility. China is realising that its switch to a consumer lead economy vs "factory to the world" will take a lot longer than anticipated and the powers that are know that food security is still a major problem. It is clear from our sources that there was a massive misread on the part of the Chinese who thought that Trump would back down. There is a lot happening in China right now pointing directly to trouble brewing - from protests by retired military personnel to paint and faeces being thrown on XJP pictures and court buildings (some thoughts that this is being stirred up from foreign sources so expect another "westerner" crackdown). So all up, this is a very dangerous time in China, XJP can not appear weak to the populace, thus the massive propaganda campaign underway (from WeChat to subway advertising, singing people in subways and the usual rules for media outlets). The soybean tariffs will be paid by the government if the beans are added to the strategic reserve - this alone shows what is really happening.  And as for the slowdown, well it is real, from Evergrande chairman to gov officials, it has been acknowledged as happening, but GDP will still print 6.7/6.8%.
Trumps timing was sublime - he actually caught the Chinese in full Moutai celebrations over the Xi for Life event and in so doing, made sure that Xi has to respond. Xi's real problem is that any response he makes from Yuan deval (we are hearing 10=15% being accepted) to imposing tariffs to limiting imports hurts China more than anything else. Your comment about China suddenly not needing 20% of its IO supplies from Oz is interesting. I had the same comment made to me when I was in Beijing last month. The month where there was another all time record shipped from Port Hedland.

Interesting read, thanks!

And as for the slowdown, well it is real, from Evergrande chairman to gov officials, it has been acknowledged as happening, but GDP will still print 6.7/6.8%.

Funny that everybody knows that GDP print is completely fake, but govts will still keep spouting the lies, won't they?  

Alarm bells on China's economy have been ringing since 2015-16...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7enlEd_1XP4

[Kylapoiss]

It may seem that I am attempting to "bust your balls" but it is merely an interaction with the substance, and your english (even if you are using translation software) seems to be decently good enough to get across your intentions.

I think that your tentative buying plan sounds good, and at least you are attempting to hedge a bit with buying and planning for incrementals.

You admit that your strategy is a bit of a gambling approach, and so at least you realize what you are doing in that regard.

Surely, my strategy has quite a lot less of a gambling approach, and currently, I am buying in about $300 increments on the way down, without really trying to predict exactly how far the price will go down.  For example if the price goes down to $3k, I will still have about 50% of my current fiat stash to buy further.  I don't expect the price to go down that far, but surely, even a 30% chance could end up playing out to become a 100% chance, once it happens.

I don't really see any utility with your plan to buy on the way up, if the price were to go up to $7,500.  That kind of strategy just does not make sense to me, even though I understand that a lot of folks play like that, and to each his own.. you have to accept and live with your own strategy, and something that works for you financially and/or psychologically, might not work for me (or at least might not feel good for me).

No, no software used, just my brain, still I feel I can't explain myself properly, words get stuck and I have to think through too much what I'm writing, hard to express myself freely in that way. Maybe I'm just not confident enough, better than being overconfident

The plan for way up is just not to miss the "train", I probably won't buy anything the first time it touches 75xx if I don't firmly believe the trend has reversed from bearish to bullish, but keeping an eye more on the market and seeing where it goes. For example, if I had my buying zone around 67xx, I wouldn't have bought anything with this small pump, at it doesn't seem to have any strength behind it (it's already falling).

But yeah, I get bored very easily and I don't like the feeling, that's why I'm trying to keep things interesting whatever I'm doing, even when it has a much more riskier outcome. Kind of an adrenaline junkie too, love extreme sports for example.

[vroom]

There's no need for Johnny Cash at these price points.

Nine Inch Nails, fam.

I'm a huge NIN fan but honestly I love the Johnny Cash version of hurt too.

do you guys know the kermit version? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57ta7mkgrOU

edit: so many typos, I type like a drunk and handicapped sea cucumber.

[Totscha]

There's no need for Johnny Cash at these price points.

Nine Inch Nails, fam.

The cover is more depressing.

[xhomerx10]

There's no need for Johnny Cash at these price points.

Nine Inch Nails, fam.

The cover is more depressing.

 You guys don't know depression.



 Now I have to drink instant coffee on my day off.


 edit: Canadian back-peddle - apologies to anyone who knows depression. 

[JayJuanGee]

I'm taking a ride
With my best friend
I hope he never lets me down again

I hurt myself today
To see if I still feel
I focus on the pain
The only thing that's real.

There's no need for Johnny Cash at these price points. We'd need to hit the dreaded $1.3k

That's too much.  I am waiting for triple digits.

[YourMother]

https://www.coindesk.com/merchants-bitcoin-lightning-network/

"100 Merchants Can Now Trial Bitcoin's Lightning Network Risk Free"

"Instant payments are the most important from our point of view," Tamás Szerencse, head of payments at LiveJasmin, said, expanding on why the company joined CoinGate's Lightning pilot.

With up to 40 million daily visitors, LiveJasmin could become one of the biggest mainstream merchants to experiment with Lightning so far. Experimenting with more diverse transaction types could provide invaluable insight into how Lightning works out in the wild.

[Totscha]

I'm taking a ride
With my best friend
I hope he never lets me down again

I hurt myself today
To see if I still feel
I focus on the pain
The only thing that's real.

There's no need for Johnny Cash at these price points. We'd need to hit the dreaded $1.3k

That's too much.  I am waiting for triple digits.

I'm still waiting for double digits I was promised in 2014

[Gyrsur]

do you guys know the kermit version? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57ta7mkgrOU

GOLD!!  

[vroom]

https://www.coindesk.com/merchants-bitcoin-lightning-network/

"100 Merchants Can Now Trial Bitcoin's Lightning Network Risk Free"

"Instant payments are the most important from our point of view," Tamás Szerencse, head of payments at LiveJasmin, said, expanding on why the company joined CoinGate's Lightning pilot.

With up to 40 million daily visitors, LiveJasmin could become one of the biggest mainstream merchants to experiment with Lightning so far. Experimenting with more diverse transaction types could provide invaluable insight into how Lightning works out in the wild.

livejasmin sounds like porn. porn was always driving new technologies. if porn accepts bitcoin, mainstream adaption will follow

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

r0ach should be here gloating. I guess he has a day job.

[Fatman3001]

r0ach should be here gloating. I guess he has a day job.

Yah, fascism is on the rise. coincident? I think not.

[Tyr808]

Lots of nastier (legal) porn is being produced thanks to bitcoin actually, and that is an extra reason why bitcoin won't go away.

Millennials need stronger porn than previous generations due to abused serotoninergic circuit.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

r0ach should be here gloating. I guess he has a day job.

Yah, fascism is on the rise. coincident? I think not.

When you realize you were the low-hanging fruit..

[Anon136]

https://www.coindesk.com/merchants-bitcoin-lightning-network/

"100 Merchants Can Now Trial Bitcoin's Lightning Network Risk Free"

"Instant payments are the most important from our point of view," Tamás Szerencse, head of payments at LiveJasmin, said, expanding on why the company joined CoinGate's Lightning pilot.

With up to 40 million daily visitors, LiveJasmin could become one of the biggest mainstream merchants to experiment with Lightning so far. Experimenting with more diverse transaction types could provide invaluable insight into how Lightning works out in the wild.

livejasmin sounds like porn. porn was always driving new technologies. if porn accepts bitcoin, mainstream adaption will follow

Not just porn. Before that all the innovation was coming from a desire to actually mate with a real females.


Does anyone know, do I have to spend down on my channel (I only have one open right now) before I can receive payments on that channel? Or can I receive lightning payments that cause a balance on a channel that is in excess of the total amount that I dedicated to the channel when I opened it? If it is the latter is there a limit to it?


Hey guys. Are you seriously telling me that not one person here can provide me with a lightning address to test out in exchange for free money? Alternatively does anyone know any good causes (causes, Jesus I sound like a liberal) that are accepting lightning donations?

[Torque]

r0ach should be here gloating. I guess he has a day job.

Silver still getting monkey hammered. So no, he's hiding in shame.

[Anon136]

1) Good question. I'm not sure about how that works - needing to establish at least one channel to fund a transaction. I'd test, but I just shut down my node a short while back - It has become a distraction at the moment, and I'm starting to pursue passion projects now.

Hey I found my answer. My wallet is saying "Can't ask for Lightning payments yet because first you need to spend at least ~5000 satoshis in order to make space for receiving." My intuition from my understanding of the mechanics of lightning was right. I feel pretty good about that. Doesn't that create a chicken and egg problem though? How was the first lightning payment received?

2) I mean, I could provide you an invoice to pay. How much money to you want to send me ?

Is that the only way it works? You can't just provide something like an open ended address that I can send how ever much I want to? If not than that's probably why no one responded to my call.

3) Back to point 1 - shutting down my node - lightning is certainly a compelling technology, and I'll be revisiting back when it's even more stable.

 Playing with it over the last 4 months has been... well... a bit of a slog TBH as things were approaching the 0.6 release.

 Funded about 0.5 BTC to play with across a bunch of channels, pulled out 0.26 BTC after shutting everything down. Fucked around with Satoshi's place a bit, bought some stickers, but I believe most of the 0.24 BTC I didn't get back was blown on channel open/close fees, and possibly just "lost" due to bugs and shit.

 Whatever.

 Still continuing to run my full public node, as that is effectively zero upkeep, and I have enough HD space allocated for the server to run for at least 10 years if it has to, on it's own dedicated UPS.

 Just wish this wasn't such a shit season for Bitcorn

Jesus christ man. That's thousands of dollars. That sucks. I'm not running a full node here. Just testing out the android app. Just testing how the UX is shaping up for normies.


Does anyone know a service that allows a content creator to receive micro payment donations via lightning? That was touted as one of the reasons for developing this technology after all.


Sorry for so much off topic talk about lightning. Again if someone knows a better active thread for it I'll take it there instead. But I don't see too much harm in it, not much else going on around here.