When my hairdresser knows what it is it's mainstream (and it's not yet).
Should have sold when my hairdresser told me about BTC in December 2017.
Why? You can never time these buys and sells again and again.
This game would play over a decade or a decade and a half (if one starts counting from 2013).
By 2023-2028 we will see how it shakes out.
Yeah I disagree. I have managed to keep my stack size the same as it was in early 2017 but pulled out 5x my original investment since the December peak. I will start putting my profits back in in January 2019.
I have stopped believing in timing for day trading (I chart for fun and to refine my skills) but I strongly believe in timing over multi year intervals - driven by the halvening cycle.
There's a point in which you might change your plan, right? What if the price goes above $10k or even $12k or even $15k before 2019? Wouldn't you get nervous about your plan to buy not playing out how you anticipated? There would be a price point that you would have to reconsider if the market seems to be going against your expectations, right?
I recall when BTC dipped for the second time (wasn't it second time in the $6k arena, and then you said that you thought that you were done trading because you expected that "the bottom was in"... Subsequently BTC prices bounced back down or at least failed to break abvoe $10k and went down to its so far lowest point of about $5,777. So at some point you changed your plan, and you sold and you are expecting DOWN.. that might not play out. I certainly don't know, but I cerainly am not making any major sell moves, even though I feel sufficiently prepared to buy down to below $1k, if necessary.. even though it is also possible that we might not see sub $5,777 coins, ever ever again... possible, right?
Yes I said I was done trading in the $6k - $10k range. I picked up a little bit when it went sub $6k for a few days but otherwise have held to that.
O.k. Makes it harder to accuse you of talking your book because if you had sold a significant amount in the $6k to $10k price arena, then that could skew your hopium a bit towards downward.
I haven’t sold anymore, what I have now is profits leftover from selling @ $13.5k and $11.5k and rebuying the same amount @ $6k - $7.2k plus a tiny bit more at $5.8k. Some will have to go to taxes and the balance can be used to increase my holdings.
Yes. There is a certain pleasure in using proceeds from higher sales amounts to replace your sold BTC and also have a bit extra on the side (fiat and BTC)
With any luck I hope to increase my pot by 50% this halvening cycle. It would be more but taxes cut hard into the profits due to low cost base.
50% is decent and even quite high if it works out. My system does not return anywhere close to that.
It is possible that the price will go up before early 2019 but I am fairly confident that it will not. At the worst I still have my original BTC balance so I am fully hedged against the upside.
From what you are saying, it seems that you are just planning to ride out any upside situation, and therefore if prices were to shoot higher than your earlier cashing out point, you would just end up locking in those earlier profits (as a kind of cashing out). Surely nothing wrong with that, and surely nothing wrong with attempting to play the very BIG swings and having a system in which you remain o.k. either way.
I know people like to split early 2013 and late 2013 into separate bull markets but I think that is a mistake.
To me 2013 was a single market just like 2017 was a single market. 2013 matches 2017, 2014 matches 2018, 2015 matches 2019, 2016 matches 2020 and 2017 matches 2021. This means both 2018 and 2019 should be dogs with the bottom sometime between January and September 2019, maybe right after we get a second death cross on the weekly or when we finally break the exponential trend from 2012 downwards (as we did last cryptowinter).
Even though we are framing 2013 differently and attempting to predict future performance (somewhat) based on our framing of 2013, probably the punchline still comes through with your placing a greater probability to this being a likely longer correction period, and I remain more doubtful about that longer correction period projection. Each of us can describe why we see it in our way, and each of us seems to have a buy/sell plan that is personally tailored to our own comfort level, so in the end, we will see what happens. Of course, if the BTC price goes shooting up before the end of 2018, I will be sticking my tongue out at the more bearish scenarios... but I am kind of agreeing that that scenario is seeming less and less probable with the passage of time and also our most recent price correction back below $7k....
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