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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2019 - 16 (10.3%)
H1 2020 - 29 (18.6%)
H2 2020 - 28 (17.9%)
H1 2021 - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2021 - 31 (19.9%)
H1 2022 - 6 (3.8%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.6%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (1.9%)
2024 or Later - 15 (9.6%)
Total Voters: 156

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21292028 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
jojo69
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no FOMO


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December 20, 2018, 09:11:53 PM


Retirement is severely overrated.
Most people are bored to smithereens and/or become idle.
In fact, being active in your 60ies probably extends life (for man).
I have seen older man declining really fast once they stopped working.
Somehow, this is not true for females, who often stay successfully retired for much longer.

depends what you do

I have had a very physically active work life.  It is time to throttle it back if I want to have joints to enjoy my dotage.
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Biodom
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December 20, 2018, 09:12:54 PM
Merited by Phil_S (1)

Interesting statistic:

if you invested in Nasdaq stocks (as a group) at the peak of Internet in 2000, your average yearly returns since then would be 1.33% (much less than inflation).
Nasdaq return since 2000 peak is 28%, official inflation since then 46.4%
That's 19 years of almost nothing (and less than nothing in real terms).
Granted, you started with a bubble, but still, it's 19 years later....


JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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December 20, 2018, 09:15:34 PM

Strange, did GDAX run out of BTC?  Sell side only showing 150BTC to over 7k USD.   Maybe it's the coinbase inside traders that have been dumping and now caught low on ammo.

Clearly, regardless of price, as time goes on more and more BTC goes out of circulation.

Eventually there will be no BTC left. Only bid side in (unlimited supply) USD. Divide by zero error means price will be infinity.

You will be able to buy the whole universe with just one BTC.

JayJuanGee
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December 20, 2018, 09:22:18 PM

The only true way I know that we've returned to a bull market is when my friends and coworkers come out of the woodwork to tell me about how they're going to start mining bitcoin with their old GPUs. I still don't actually know anyone else IRL who has ever bought bitcoin as an investment. But they'll spend hours and hours researching how to mine it, despite me telling them that they're wasting their time.

What are you doing then, besides shooting down the ideas of others?



By the way, I am not too much interested in the idea of mining bitcoin, but I can understand why some folks may want to get into mining as a medium to also learn more about the technicals behind BTC.  But, in terms of pure investing, or speculating, it is probably better to develop DCA buy strategies and to use fiat earned in regular life for that and to create a target accumulation, such as 1% to 10% of your investments or some other personally tailored investment goal.
JayJuanGee
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December 20, 2018, 09:25:50 PM

I am going to guess we continue the pumperino to 4400 after a dumperino to 3980

Would that trigger your stop loss?
Raja_MBZ
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Vegeta! What does the scouter say about BTC value?


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December 20, 2018, 09:27:51 PM

According to CoinMarketCap:

Last 24h Volume (overall): $25,339,041,596

Last 24h Tether Volume: $6,603,357,495

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Tether use to have a lot more dominance in overall volume till a few months back?

Currently, only about 25% of the total USD 24-hour volume belongs to Tether.
JayJuanGee
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December 20, 2018, 09:30:19 PM



LET IT BE Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

That is nearly ridiculous logic that you are citing there, mic.  Get your team to help you to see the light.

Recall that in September 2017 bitcoin was in the midst - and even tail end of a bull market, and currently bitcoin seems to be in a bear market, so the price dynamics, and therefore momentum, are much different.
Biodom
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December 20, 2018, 09:30:24 PM
Last edit: December 20, 2018, 10:50:08 PM by Biodom

Strange, did GDAX run out of BTC?  Sell side only showing 150BTC to over 7k USD.   Maybe it's the coinbase inside traders that have been dumping and now caught low on ammo.

Clearly, regardless of price, as time goes on more and more BTC goes out of circulation.

Eventually there will be no BTC left. Only bid side in (unlimited supply) USD. Divide by zero error means price will be infinity.

You will be able to buy the whole universe with just one BTC.


Well, there would be 10^500 -21000000 Universes still ready for the picking with progressively miniscule alts, I suppose.
Prices would decrease, I gather, so just wait until then (best prices)  Cheesy
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December 20, 2018, 09:35:18 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Only good news, fine, we keep forward >>>

Bitcoin Payment Processor OpenNode Gets $1.25M From Investors

https://www.nasdaq.com/article/bitcoin-payment-processor-opennode-gets-125m-from-investors-cm1071687

JayJuanGee
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December 20, 2018, 09:35:58 PM
Merited by Biodom (1)

Last bear market was there talk along the lines of 'the bottom won't be in till all the altcoins are utterly rekt'?

I understand that you seem to be asking a rhetorical question, but I will answer anyhow, and that answer is:  No. 

So, it raises a decent point about whether such altcoin reckoning is a necessary condition precedent before BTC prices can rise or not?    Seems to me that the answer to my revised question is no, also, even though BTC price dynamics would likely be on stronger grounds for greater upwards movement with such shit coin shakening.... but also seems to wishful to hope for such to occur because the world does not tend to play out with such purism and clarity.   Shocked
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December 20, 2018, 09:45:55 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Last bear market was there talk along the lines of 'the bottom won't be in till all the altcoins are utterly rekt'?

I understand that you seem to be asking a rhetorical question, but I will answer anyhow, and that answer is:  No. 

So, it raises a decent point about whether such altcoin reckoning is a necessary condition precedent before BTC prices can rise or not?    Seems to me that the answer to my revised question is no, also, even though BTC price dynamics would likely be on stronger grounds for greater upwards movement with such shit coin shakening.... but also seems to wishful to hope for such to occur because the world does not tend to play out with such purism and clarity.   Shocked

This time around there would not be complete altcoin reckoning as long as there are funds with low cost basis in those as long as those funds have some positive fiat cash flows.
Some of those funds are highly concentrated in a particular alt (or a small group of them), hence they would defend their initial position(s).
micgoossens
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BTFD, on to 15K a coin !!!!


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December 20, 2018, 09:46:32 PM

WoW Shocked , you is saying ..... i am a donkey ? Roll Eyes


Yes. Not sure who is Shrek, maybe JJG: "Get the fuck outta my swamp with your altcoins".

so who is the gingerbread man??
JayJuanGee
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December 20, 2018, 09:50:35 PM

At the actual 2013 peak there were only 40-50 alts in total. XRP and LTC are the only ones still relevant. LTC managed a 98/99% fall. Can't be bothered to think about XRP.

Yeah, alts weren't a thing back in. Whether they went up or down meant nothing.




I swear you are the human incarnation of Donkey.

WoW Shocked , you is saying ..... i am a donkey ? Roll Eyes

Not a donkey -  "like a donkey."   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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December 20, 2018, 09:57:57 PM

I am going to guess we continue the pumperino to 4400 after a dumperino to 3980

Would that trigger your stop loss?

Stop loss is at 3855.

Selling at $321359387.21
micgoossens
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BTFD, on to 15K a coin !!!!


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December 20, 2018, 10:00:08 PM



LET IT BE Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

That is nearly ridiculous logic that you are citing there, mic.  Get your team to help you to see the light.

Recall that in September 2017 bitcoin was in the midst - and even tail end of a bull market, and currently bitcoin seems to be in a bear market, so the price dynamics, and therefore momentum, are much different.

international meeting tomorrow with all of my crew.... big punishment, gonna laid off a few etc all on you JJG
gonna recruit a whole new team, on much more attractive payroll just to make sure you are not annoyed @ any time.



by the way its thursday STFU JJG ......................... Cheesy Grin
JayJuanGee
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December 20, 2018, 10:01:44 PM

Are we starting to see people FOMO'ing?
Have no fucking idea. I am with my date tonight  and I am confused where should I concentrate more my btc or naked girl laying beside me.

Lets look at this mathematically:

0 BTC + 1 Naked Girl Now = 0 BTC + 1 Naked Girl Later (maybe)
X BTC + 0 Naked Girls Now = X/2 BTC + X² Naked Girls Later

The latter formula reduces itself to:

BTC=2XNG where X is the number of BTC now and NG is whatever it is.
perhaps second variable is needed.

You're right. We can make this a collaborative project.

On a long enough timeline, you inevitably run out of NG 's. Or inverse squared to the xxxx of BTC you have.  Grin Cool

When I was younger, perhaps 5 NG per day might be my outer limit - especially if going on for many days in a row.  However, these days, with more elderly me, probably my tolerance would only be 2-3 NG per day.  

Of course, I am talking mostly theoretical here, because I am sure that rotating NG (meaning new ones each time) would likely be quite more instinctually stimulating than repeatedly same NG (or a smaller selection of NGs).  

This is one of those topics that would be much better for me to take the hit for the WO inquirers here and to personally test, rather than hypothesize.  
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December 20, 2018, 10:03:30 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

There definitely shaping up to be strong correlation with the 2013-2015 cycle as has been noted by many. Have to see how January plays out with taxes and potentially bakkt. A eerily close fit would be on or around Feb. 1st at $2.45k or so. followed with 7 to 8 months of sideways followed with a new Bullrun and ATH. That being said it seems support is strong at the estimated mining profitability range of $3.8k+

I personally think that it will be similar but not exactly the same and hopefully we have seen the bottom already. #dyor


In other news the monthly candle just wicked back to green.

Also the largest transfer of crypto has happened apparently.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/coinbase-moves-5-billion-reports-largest-crypto-transfer-on-record

M

#stronghands2019


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December 20, 2018, 10:09:18 PM


Those bastards got all that cash/crypto from all of us with their insane 1-1.5% fees.
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December 20, 2018, 10:11:36 PM


Those bastards got all that cash/crypto from all of us with their insane 1-1.5% fees.

That was customer funds, not CB's own coins...
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December 20, 2018, 10:16:45 PM

https://www.wsj.com/articles/first-futures-contract-to-pay-out-in-bitcoin-poised-for-green-light-11545301801

According to the Wall Street Journal:

WASHINGTON—The first futures contract that will pay out in cryptocurrency rather than cash is expected to soon get regulatory approval.

“It’s great to have cash-settle, but there’s a need for physical delivery,” said Kelly Loeffler, CEO of Intercontinental Exchange’s crypto business, Bakkt.

Approval for the futures contract is currently being considered by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

CFTC laws require all US future contracts to be redeemable for dollars, securities or commodities, but it’s understood the commission will make an exemption to allow the Bitcoin futures contract to pay out in Bitcoin.
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