Fundamentals of BTC can not be properly quantified right now, hence a market without "obvious" fundamentals.
Huh? Why does it matter? I recall taking courses in economics, and I would frequently criticize some of the theories for attempting to place too much quantification on various aspects of human behaviors, but it does not hurt to make attempts and in the end, some people are going to be better (and more accurate) at such quantifications than others, even while there are going to be areas of uncertainties and even, perhaps, misplaced concreteness.
In stocks you can calculate (or just read) almost all the data you need to project revenue and profits and thus a band for your ROI.
Of course, the longer the history and the more mature (and even comparable) the asset class is going to cause predictive models to be more accurate.
With crypto this is completely and utterly impossible right now.
Never say never.
You seems to be creating more futility than is warranted with your statement of absolutisms, here.
Which is also why the market is doing its usual technicals driven ups and downs with no obvious walls given by fundamental analysis.
Huh? You are losing me.
From my understanding, our current BTC price dynamics is experiencing a considerable amount of price battle, which is demonstrated by recent increases in trade volume (measured in dollars), so there is a price battle going on and we will find out which way the price goes from such battle. Does not seem to be different from the usual bitcoin situation, and many folks who watch the bitcoin space are going to understand that it becomes much more difficult for any small group to manipulate BTC prices when trade volumes are high. In other words, it is going to cost a lot of fucking money (or value) to manipulate BTC prices during times like these (high trade volume) times, yet such high costs of manipulation and push also can have some potential for considerable profits for one side or the other to experience considerable gains if such side can get the BTC price to break into their preferred direction.
So there is frequently uncertainty regarding which way such price battle is going to play out including the current price battle, but that does not mean that there are not tools that peeps have in order to attempt to predict both the direction outcome and the degree in which it will break, assuming that it breaks (which is also not certain, because it could just end up going sideways and the battle reaches a truce, which seems like the lesser of the likely outcomes during periods in which the trade volume picks up like it currently has picked up).
Economics is a joke that has, in its current form, no place at institutions of higher education.
You're conflating two things here. More below.
With no word have I said 'never'. I specifically pointed to the current state of crypto, which makes fundamental analysis (beyond mining cost) completely impossible. Hence, no obvious fundamental value that can give you any idea of where we are currently standing.
As said, you're conflating all of my post with the chart drawing you see most of in these places (crypto). The chart drawing and analysis is part of a branch called technical analysis. It tries to identify trends and shifts in market psychology.
What I was talking about is fundamental analysis, which is much more objective (to the point of accuracy of data) as it analyses underlying assets, costs, profits, revenue as well as risk and opportunity premiums and so on of a business.
Thus, fundamental analysis gives you an objective value of a company, around which the stock price fluctuates.
Technical analysis tries to quantify the fluctuations (stemming from market psychology and the implied trader behaviour).
Bitcoin's price stands almost exclusively on the emotional and speculative leg of technical analysis right now, and that won't change until we get to a scenario where "Y proportion of X market" is traded against BTC. This is also why Bitcoin went from 20k to 3k. Because technicals pointed towards that being the likely outcome (note that nothing will ever give you the exact numbers without).
If Bitcoin could be assigned a fundamental value of $10k we would've most likely not seen a significant drop below $10k, as FOMO would kick in and revert the price towards its fundamental value. Similarly, it would retrace from $30k to $20k if the latter was its fundamental value, as people would sell in order to buy back at a price closer to the "real" value.
Technical indicators give you a confidence interval for the deviation from the fundamental value as well as the speed of convergence towards it. But since that doesn't exist in Bitcoin, a quasi-fundamental value is given mostly by mining price + moving averages (technicals). Hence, it doesn't matter if Bitcoin is more "mature" until a fundamental value is near universally agreed upon by global markets and easily identifiable. It'll keep trading more or less the same until then.
P.S. The 'battle' is mostly just trading based on technicals with some people getting caught in between and making up narratives that fit the current market. Hence the odd timing of news stories and whatnot. They push trades implied by fundamentals over the edge so to speak.
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