Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

[El duderino_]

JoJo you got the thread like let us say for a week or 2-3?

lol

micG-----> into HODLsleeps

good night WO's

[kurious]

I will try to tweak this over the coming months and see if it has any value, but if anyone else better at working this out wants to try - and can factor in more sophisticated statistical analysis (standard deviation etc.) that would be good..

I think calculating the correlation coefficient will give you what you want.  Expect it will be quite high. 

I think a vague positive correlation might be present - but it has to be useful enough to be able to forward map reasonably well.  it may involve 'bending time' by having an overlap that differs - making one XX month period longer or shorter against the other, fading sharper moves by averaging to a line of travel if a given % of change is over a certain ratio, or factoring in when certain MAs cross as start and end points for a range (when the halving comes etc.)  

Basically any mathematically sound and constant fix that looks a better fit by playing with it over a decent long term period of the two comparable cycles that have - ostensibly - some key things in common because of Bitcoin's unique cyclical nature.

The drop from top to bottom seemingly correlates in percentage terms, for a start - so it's not a total wild goose chase.

It's not really my field, but I'll try and wrap my head around ways to work on it - then test (and back test) to see how I can get anything close enough.  So far it 'looks' like we aren't moving as fast away from the bottom as in 2015 - because it was a sharper 'snap' down-and-up in '15 than from the last bottom.  I need to look at correlations with opening price, closing price, high and low (or maybe weighted average) to see which (if any) are better fits as time goes on.  Then see if I can work on and refine any promising factor so it gives me a better prediction.  Daily may not be as close as three day candles etc.

So far I can only get data easily for daily historical data in CSV easily, so I shall hunt down other sources (I can get per minute historical data, too - but I am not sure it will help) I only want to see repeating patterns that occasionally will give a prediction with a better than even chance correctly guessing likely direction and a rough price range within a range of + or - XX% in say XX days time +/- X days ?

If I can find anything close enough to be useful - or find no real correlation at all, it will be worth knowing.   I hope I can learn something - even if it is just my own limits

[RivAngE]

So the poll is over and it seems 17.3% of the voters were expecting prices over $6,000 ! Where is that confidence coming from ? 
We need more negativity before things start going better.... because.. that's how things usually happen!

[RivAngE]

So the poll is over and it seems 17.3% of the voters were expecting prices over $6,000 ! Where is that confidence coming from ? 
We need more negativity before things start going better.... because.. that's how things usually happen!

[Arriemoller]

Hello again guys.

First I want to than all of you who congratulated me on my birthday, I really don't have the stamina nor the time to go back and check each one of you right now, so I thank you all this way.

I would also like to thank everybody who wished I would get better.
I am much better now, a harsh dose of cortisone broke the relapse it seems, I'm not back to normal, but a lot better then two days ago.

I would also like to return the birthday hat, I'm sorry Homer, but it seems like it gave me bad luck.

  < image of birthday hat that I don't know how to put here.

[xhomerx10]

Hello again guys.

First I want to than all of you who congratulated me on my birthday, I really don't have the stamina nor the time to go back and check each one of you right now, so I thank you all this way.

I would also like to thank everybody who wished I would get better.
I am much better now, a harsh dose of cortisone broke the relapse it seems, I'm not back to normal, but a lot better then two days ago.

I would also like to return the birthday hat, I'm sorry Homer, but it seems like it gave me bad luck.

  < image of birthday hat that I don't know how to put here.

 Bad luck?  Are you sure?  The hat works in mysterious wsys; it may have been a blessing in disguise.

[fillippone]

yuh not one of my best ones. just some geezer who writes unfeasibly long posts here in broken robo-English

Hey!
I write long post but my broken English is 100% human!
But actually I’m broken.
So, broken-human English, rather than broken robo-English.

[Arriemoller]

Hello again guys.

First I want to than all of you who congratulated me on my birthday, I really don't have the stamina nor the time to go back and check each one of you right now, so I thank you all this way.

I would also like to thank everybody who wished I would get better.
I am much better now, a harsh dose of cortisone broke the relapse it seems, I'm not back to normal, but a lot better then two days ago.

I would also like to return the birthday hat, I'm sorry Homer, but it seems like it gave me bad luck.

  < image of birthday hat that I don't know how to put here.

 Bad luck?  Are you sure?  The hat works in mysterious wsys; it may have been a blessing in disguise.

Oh, I'm sure.

[Lambie Slayer]

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/avmnjs/daily_discussion_thursday_february_28_2019/

WhyDontYouTryIt

2 hours ago
"It seems the battle for the steep uptrend (yellow) has been lost. Time to regroup at the blue trendline..."



zoom out:




Fits nicely w my take that we are gonna hit 3400 before the next big surge up. Buy the Bull Market Dip if it happens gents!

[xhomerx10]

Hello again guys.

First I want to than all of you who congratulated me on my birthday, I really don't have the stamina nor the time to go back and check each one of you right now, so I thank you all this way.

I would also like to thank everybody who wished I would get better.
I am much better now, a harsh dose of cortisone broke the relapse it seems, I'm not back to normal, but a lot better then two days ago.

I would also like to return the birthday hat, I'm sorry Homer, but it seems like it gave me bad luck.

  < image of birthday hat that I don't know how to put here.

 Bad luck?  Are you sure?  The hat works in mysterious wsys; it may have been a blessing in disguise.

Oh, I'm sure.

 Sorry to hear that.  I'll have to redesign the  birthday hat.

[bitserve]

Drying painted Wall Observers.

[jojo69]

JoJo you got the thread like let us say for a week or 2-3?

lol

micG-----> into HODLsleeps

good night WO's

uhhh

oh man, we're fucked

[jojo69]

Elwar's thing is live  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTXhgcXA1pM&app=desktop

[bitserve]

Elwar's thing is live  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTXhgcXA1pM&app=desktop

Great! Thanks for the heads up! I completely forgot.

[nanobtc]

Looks good Elwar, always nice to see a face of someone I feel like I (sorta) know.

[Toxic2040]

Beware, a wolf stretches.
1h


Fundamentals are still solid. We are within the channel and orbit insertion is nominal for LLO. These Hohmann transfers can take awhile so be patient.  #dyor
D

#stronghands'19

----------------------------------------------------


                                 

Time for a new poll.
---------------------------------------------------

Ahoy to all Seasteaders from the Wall.

[d_eddie]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5106432.msg49960305#msg49960305
No TA, only “fundamental analysis”

yuh not one of my best ones. just some geezer who writes unfeasibly long posts here in broken robo-English

Hey!
I write long post but my broken English is 100% human!
But actually I’m broken.
So, broken-human English, rather than broken robo-English.

I didn't spend merit on legends like V8 inspecting AH AH AH's selfies or Mic's robofrog (well he technically is no legend but you know, I didn't notice) just so to be able to award information-rich but structured and digestible posts by prelegendaries.

Ah and thanks for the heads up, V8. Wouldn't have noticed.

+1 WOsMerit to Last of the V8s and to The Goose.

In other news, +1 WOsMerit to Elwar (wow, man) and Jojo (heads up).

[realr0ach]

I decided to leave a formal review of bitcoin:

[Paashaas]

Casa announced two new multi-sig security producs to everyone.



https://www.theblockcrypto.com/2019/02/28/casa-is-dramatically-shifting-its-business-and-its-kicking-off-with-two-new-products/

https://blog.keys.casa/multisig-security-for-everyone-keymaster/