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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21329335 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (104 posts by 20 users deleted.)
VB1001
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April 03, 2019, 08:42:50 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)

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serveria.com
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April 03, 2019, 08:45:19 PM

Moving a bit too fast for my liking. I think we’ll have a correction to mid 4K’s. I’m fine with that, I’m enjoying accumulating.

We all know we’re going to 6 figures beyond 2021 any way.

Well we didn't have a correction on the way down why should we have one one the way up? $6500 baby here we come....
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April 03, 2019, 08:45:46 PM



Eat my last sMerit Cheesy
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April 03, 2019, 08:47:30 PM

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_tax#Current_examples

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Argentina
Canada
France
Spain
Netherlands
Norway
Switzerland
Italy
Do note that the Netherlands don't have a capital gains tax. And their wealth tax caps at I believe 1.6 or 1.8%.

Wealth tax here is like this:

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April 03, 2019, 08:48:12 PM

Moving a bit too fast for my liking. I think we’ll have a correction to mid 4K’s. I’m fine with that, I’m enjoying accumulating.

I want that correction! Buy order ready at $4600:

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April 03, 2019, 08:48:27 PM

HairyMaclairy
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April 03, 2019, 08:49:33 PM

So wonder how Bitfinexed is feeling now that Bitstamp is leading the charge and BFX is lagging.  

This all feels pure and good.  Organic FOMO.  
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April 03, 2019, 08:50:02 PM

Litecoin added lightning? (But why with their empty 2min blocks) did that increase their pump?
HairyMaclairy
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April 03, 2019, 08:50:28 PM

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_tax#Current_examples

Quote
Argentina
Canada
France
Spain
Netherlands
Norway
Switzerland
Italy
Do note that the Netherlands don't have a capital gains tax. And their wealth tax caps at I believe 1.6 or 1.8%.

Wealth tax here is like this:



Does the wealth tax apply to your primary residence?
VB1001
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April 03, 2019, 08:53:01 PM



https://twitter.com/btcseminar

Let's put some order, this is, The Holy Grail Shocked
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April 03, 2019, 08:54:36 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I want that correction! Buy order ready at $4600:

A suggestion:   Don’t use round numbers for your limit orders. Put it $20 or $30 above because if the price is going to bounce, it will bounce above $xx00.  If the prices touches $xx00 then it’s going to drop below that amount.
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April 03, 2019, 08:56:18 PM


The Bitcoin Obituaries Song 2016-2018 (Not This Time Part 2)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePdwAX4uUW0

It seems they just published part 11h ago Smiley
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April 03, 2019, 08:57:55 PM

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_tax#Current_examples

Quote
Argentina
Canada
France
Spain
Netherlands
Norway
Switzerland
Italy
Do note that the Netherlands don't have a capital gains tax. And their wealth tax caps at I believe 1.6 or 1.8%.

Wealth tax here is like this:



Does the wealth tax apply to your primary residence?

No ,however you do pay a seperate small tax on the worth of your residence. This is usually greatly offset by the fact that you can deduct the interest you pay on you mortgage off of the income you have to pay tax over, so in practice you get about 50% back on the interest you pay to the bank.
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April 03, 2019, 08:57:56 PM

If we break the resistance range $4100-4200 in the next days, it will be a strong sign that the bulls are in control. Taking back the once strong support at $6000-6400 is inevitable this year next weeks next days.

The way to 10K is open! Go Bitcoin, go!



This is my 2nd edit for today.  Grin
HairyMaclairy
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April 03, 2019, 08:58:28 PM

Been thinking:

I have been trying to crunch historical prices of late to see if I can spot patterns between data sets from 2015 and 2019. Patterns that might allow me some kind of edge in future price prediction. And not just so I can win one of MicG's games Wink

Obviously I've been trying this because it's apparent that there are established cycles and even uncannily close ratios that appear in Bitcoin related to halvings, absolute bottoms and ATHs.

Many have predicted this cycle will take longer than previously, saying that cycles appear to be getting more drawn out.

However - there is a simple factor at work here which I think means this is not the case, which is that once something is reasonably predictable then you can reasonably anticipate it. For instance, it's not stupid to postulate that it's usually cold in January in the Northern hemisphere, so you pack warm and waterproof items of clothing if you intend to be there and spend time outside. You cannot predict the precise temperature on a given day - but you know it's a safe bet in January it's going to be cold.

What the hell has the weather got to do with Bitcoin?  Well, the more confirmation that the cycle is looking like it's heading for a repeat akin to the past (as sure as the seasons inevitably change) it follows that more people will feel confident in front-running it.  Logically, if it has bottomed and is now almost definitely going up rather than down, then (equally logically) it's batshit crazy not to buy before it gets more expensive.  Especially as the pesky damn digital things are going to be more difficult to acquire, since the supply is decreasing.  OTC is not necessarily going to be so easy, either - and some miners may perhaps delay selling quite so quickly.  The feedback loop will be powerful with so much media interest and the institutional money around, too.

Now - bear with me? Let me spool back to the post-Gox era and the 'bubble/bust' before the 17/18 one we have just come through.

In January 2015 I did buy at the bottom, but not because I had any god-like foresight. Not at all.

Frankly, I didn't know if Bitcoin would ever come back (did anyone for sure?) However, I was underwater with my investment, so the only thing to do was to buy more to average my cost down and make a breakeven more likely in future.  I wasn't certain, I just felt I had to either sell, or double down, and I didn't want to quit.  So, I steeled myself, trusted my instinct and bought a load more.  With 20/20 hindsight it was probably the best financial decision I ever made, but if you'd said to me then that the bitcoins I had just bought for sub 200 bucks would be worth nearly $20K less than three years later - I would probably have thought you were crazy. Back then this thread had tumbleweed rolling through and sometimes not one post (apart from chart buddy) for hours.

What I am driving at is that today it's just not the same as back then.  Now, we have had bubbles and crashes that look like fractals with some trend regularity being apparent and yes, looking predictable. Now, no one has any illusions that BTC could not easily hit 20K again.  Now, any doubts about increasingly higher prices returning once the bottom is 'obviously' in the rear view mirror will disappear pretty fast.

So, the more the price 'recovers' the more asymmetrical a bet on Bitcoin looks.  5K? A risk? What fucking risk!

Back to my workings on that pattern overlay I mentioned.  Well right now the bunch of models I set up are looking out of sync. Now I may be VERY wrong of course and it's not based on nearly enough data, but it looks to me like it's going faster than it should be.

Certainly some people, including me in my small way, have been steadily accumulating.  Sooner or later of course, no matter what - it had to start to increasingly affect price.  And then, well...  it doesn't take a genius to see that buying now what is already rising again and highly likely to be at a lot higher price level before too long, just makes sense. The feedback loop will be way more powerful. Bitcoin has blown everyone away more than once, fewer and fewer people will be prepared to bet against it anymore. Now, it's got 'previous form'.

And for anyone who has a lot already - it's looking foolish to risk trying price suppression in order to accumulate anymore - not when tens of millions of $ can flip the price up 20% or more in the wee small hours of the morning.

Maybe there isn't so much time left to accumulate at these levels after all?

Also, here's a thing: what if the very supposed 'predictability' of Bitcoin will mean it can't be this time? In a sort of 'Heisenburg's uncertainty principle' way, the very act of having measured it, makes the measurement invalid - as the market is expecting it.

Forgive the long ramble - I am just feeling things are different and any assumptions we have of what 'the cycle' should do and how long it should take are a tad out of date. And I am sure I can't be the only soul on this planet thinking along these lines.

So: what if the common assumptions are indeed totally out of date and it starts running away far earlier than expected? 

Well, I just hope you've already packed your bags for the trip and they are as full as possible.  Don't worry, though - I have a feeling it won't be too cold where we are headed.

In fact, it's probably a good idea to bring your shades.



NB: I sometimes have flights of fancy that are utterly risible, I just wanted to float this for fun. After all, the one thing you can rely on with honey badger - is that it doesn't give a fuck about what you are expecting it to do, right?
DYOR.

these are kind of my thoughts just written in greater detail.

in 2015 everbody was like ahh bitcoin dont know it was just a hype it wont come back
now its like yeah wait for the halvening and it will be like in the 6 digits .
 alot of people are quietly watching the price and the ones with guts are getting in early.

nobody knows what will happen till the halvening but you can say the price will be higher at the halvening


ran out of merits but this long post if deffinetly worth a merit

Great post.  I think this rally over the next two years is the big one. Everyone has heard of Bitcoin but almost no one owns any.   Wall Street has spent this bear market building the critical infrastructure and is largely ready to roll.  

Even the SEC is ready. Bring it.  
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April 03, 2019, 09:00:12 PM

Looking at CMC I am impressed with the volume and more impressed by the exchange diversity. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets
Volume is very evenly distributed across many exchanges these days..
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April 03, 2019, 09:01:34 PM

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_tax#Current_examples

Quote
Argentina
Canada
France
Spain
Netherlands
Norway
Switzerland
Italy
Do note that the Netherlands don't have a capital gains tax. And their wealth tax caps at I believe 1.6 or 1.8%.

Wealth tax here is like this:



Does the wealth tax apply to your primary residence?

No ,however you do pay a seperate small tax on the worth of your residence. This is usually greatly offset by the fact that you can deduct the interest you pay on you mortgage off of the income you have to pay tax over, so in practice you get about 50% back on the interest you pay to the bank.

Tax deductible mortgage payments on your primary residence is a pretty big deal.  

I don’t agree with it personally because it just drives up property prices and a house is not an income producing asset.  So it is a huge tax expenditure for no real gain for the economy.

It’s a good way to increase your net worth though if you own a big house when the rule change goes through or specialize in renovations.
HairyMaclairy
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April 03, 2019, 09:02:54 PM

Looking at CMC I am impressed with the volume and more impressed by the exchange diversity. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets
Volume is very evenly distributed across many exchanges these days..

And very fake.  There is a very long report kicking around on the internet which explains how volume is fake on everything except Bitstamp, Bitfinex, Kraken and Counbase Pro. 
bitserve
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HODL.


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April 03, 2019, 09:03:21 PM

Nice.

Now I only need a higher low to change my "status" for good.
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April 03, 2019, 09:03:27 PM

Lets go Bullstamps!


#stronhgands
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