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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2019 - 16 (10.3%)
H1 2020 - 29 (18.6%)
H2 2020 - 28 (17.9%)
H1 2021 - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2021 - 31 (19.9%)
H1 2022 - 6 (3.8%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.6%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (1.9%)
2024 or Later - 15 (9.6%)
Total Voters: 156

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21290513 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
ThrobbingSausage
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April 03, 2019, 11:54:51 PM

bitcoin will fall under 3000 soon

I do not believe you.
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lightfoot
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April 04, 2019, 12:18:07 AM

Time to pucker up and HODL.
BitcoinNewsMagazine
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April 04, 2019, 12:20:37 AM

Ah well it was nice while it lasted. All the way up to $5350 then shot down to $5100.
Does this mean the bull run is officially call off? Embarrassed
Damn had moon eyes all day long. Cool

No not official. Watch for a bounce off of the 200 day MA: traders will. Currently at $4600. If the MA does not hold we will probably be back into a trading range while accumulation continues.
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April 04, 2019, 12:33:06 AM

Well, if this was a planned bear attack, it was doomed before it started. The general mood is very positive, and traders do not recongize any historic resistance all the way to 6K. So the battle for $5K is pointless. Bulls already won it!

i have 0 sendable merits, but you deserve it.

I think just like you.

This "dump" only reset RSI values. Now the only way is up (i hope)
jojo69
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April 04, 2019, 01:26:12 AM

Been thinking:

Indeed you have.  Great post, would merit...
Lambie Slayer
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April 04, 2019, 01:28:57 AM
Merited by jbreher (1)

bitcoin will fall under 3000 soon
never trust this fake pump

Whats your blood type, we may have use for you in the future at a nocoiner shelter Wink
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April 04, 2019, 01:37:47 AM

Dead? Nah, it's pining for the fjords!

A settling back is to be expected after such a remarkable rise...  But any remaining doubts the bear market is over are surely now disappearing.

Edited:  posts comin' too fast...

It's looking very good indeed, but I'm still prepared to be put through the meat grinder.

Plain sailing all the way is not realistic, of course - this is Bitcoin after all.  Keeping expectations in check and being pleasantly surprised is probably a better strategy than the reverse of it. That said, a little spring in the step is probably warranted.  We are a fair way over $3122, after all...

Keep expectations in check : that is the best advice.

This wave up is merely the mirror of the wave down from £6k a few months back. That was quick, with little support. It has not regained $6xxx yet. Even if it does soon, it is going to meet a lot of upside resistance there.

Best scenario would be to get above $6k, then retrace to around 5K and hold for a few months. A year end close above $4k is fine, above 5k would be good.

Wait and watch.
jojo69
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April 04, 2019, 01:40:01 AM

No ,however you do pay a seperate small tax on the worth of your residence. This is usually greatly offset by the fact that you can deduct the interest you pay on you mortgage off of the income you have to pay tax over, so in practice you get about 50% back on the interest you pay to the bank.

Pretty good way for a government to shovel money into the banks..

hey, that's what governments are for right?
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April 04, 2019, 01:57:44 AM



 Grin

barting down weeee
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April 04, 2019, 02:28:04 AM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)



 Grin

barting down weeee

Fuck off.
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April 04, 2019, 02:38:55 AM
Merited by bones261 (2), cAPSLOCK (1), HI-TEC99 (1)

Lawl.

I get home from the ball game and a few frosties to find we're back to where we were less than half a day ago and some people are acting like the roof fell in.

People are asking if the bull market is over and even Gemtwit has crawled out from under his rock to go weeeeeee.

One tiny correction and whiners are acting like Chicken Little.

It's still well over $5k for Chrissakes. Grow a set.
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April 04, 2019, 03:08:35 AM

How are the Jays looking Jimbo?

Mariners are on FIRE early.
infofront
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April 04, 2019, 03:49:27 AM
Last edit: April 04, 2019, 05:19:29 AM by infofront
Merited by kurious (2), vapourminer (1), Paashaas (1), JayJuanGee (1), ChinkyEyes (1), fillippone (1), yoraccoon (1)

Inspired by Kurious' recent post, I'd like to post about some related things I've been thinking about:

It seems there are two schools of thought regarding the bubble cycle we've just begun.

  • That it will be the same length as every other cycle, as dictated by the halvings. Bubble top: late 2021/early 2022
  • Or, that the cycles have been lengthening, and therefore our current cycle will be the longest and hit the top later than in previous cycles. Bubble top: late 2022/early 2023

There's a great debate, on this exact subject, between two of the best analysts on crypto twitter here: https://twitter.com/filbfilb/status/1078316170493734918

It seems that scenario 2 is the consensus among the majority of analysts (and previously myself) - that the next bubble will gain a lower percentage than previous bubbles, and it will take longer. Something like this:



However, there are reasons to believe that may not be the case:

  • Bakkt, ETFs, and institutional adoption are likely to be involved in the next bubble. This alone isn't quite as convincing as it's often made out to be. Institutional adoption almost has to be there to take us to the next level, and is baked into every pricing scenario >$50k IMO.
  • We may be in the third of four four-year cycles (forming a 16-year super cycle). The four-year cycles can be loosely broken down as 4 phases, the four classic market phases: Accumulation, Uptrend, Distribution, Downtrend.



    The 16 year super cycle can be broken down  the same way, which means we've just begun the four-year Distribution phase, which is essentially the topping phase. If our prices follow this model, then the next bubble top will be the blow of top of the blow off top. It will be the mother of all bubbles ($300K+ possible).  This theory is touched on here, with graphs. He says these kind of cycles are often found in other commodities.
  • We're reaching the vertical section of the S-curve. Crypto usage rates are notoriously hard to calculate. Kaspersky recently said that 10% of people have bought something online with crypto. We know there is another portion of crypto users who just speculate and hodl, without ever buying anything. If we put that number of people at 50% (pulling this out of my ass) of people purchasing with crypto, we've got 15% of potential crypto users actually using crypto.



    Of course, since the dawn of the space age, the S curve hasn't looked much like an S:



    Assuming price follows adoption, as it has with every technology which has followed Metcalfe's law that I'm aware of, the crypto twitter/tradingview/bitcointalk seeming consensus of ~$90K-100K is overly conservative.
    Keep in mind, if Bitcoin were Facebook, we'd still be at pre-IPO levels (circa 2009)


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April 04, 2019, 03:51:11 AM

Toxic2040
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April 04, 2019, 04:31:52 AM

The lioness..she hunts.

1h


Buy the dips.
4h

#stronghands'19
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April 04, 2019, 04:37:50 AM

re: the blow off top of the blow off top

Another great post infofront, thank you.

but I have to say, it is just this kind of thinking that prevented me from cashing in last time...
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April 04, 2019, 04:42:11 AM

How are the Jays looking Jimbo?

Mariners are on FIRE early.

The Jays are in a serious rebuild at the moment. They released or traded most of their recent post-season team within the last year or so and traded away their longest tenured player, Keven Pillar, just yesterday for a 21-year-old pitching prospect and a couple of journeymen. In the process they trimmed their payroll from around $150M to about $50M.

Despite that they're 3-4, ahead of both New York and Boston, mainly on the strength of their starting rotation.

We're all waiting for Vlad Guerrero Jr., the #1 prospect in all of baseball to be brought up but that probably won't happen until May to ensure an extra year of team control. Meanwhile they also have highly rated prospects Cavan Biggio and Bo Bichette waiting in the wings. They're kinda where the Yankees were 3 years ago with the Baby Bombers (Judge, Sanchez, etc.) waiting to break through.

Attendance has dropped even more than the payroll. Instead of drawing 40,000 per game, they're lucky to get 10,000 for a weeknight game. They probably get more Jays fans at Safeco Field.  Cheesy Part of that might be the fact that hockey's still going.

I'm staunchly hodling my season ticket seats behind home plate though. Like Bitcoin, the Jays' future is looking very good.
_____

Congrats on your Mariners' 7-1 record. Our 2 teams are almost sisters, being born the same year. Cheers!  Cool
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April 04, 2019, 04:44:06 AM

bitcoin will fall under 3000 soon
never trust this fake pump
to quote President Trump, "WRONG".

Quote
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Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it


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April 04, 2019, 04:44:33 AM

bitcoin will fall under 3000 soon
never trust this fake pump

These trolls make it so easy to ignore.
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April 04, 2019, 04:55:30 AM

But guys, what's up with the hats? Care to explain?

Homer, I have a priority one override request.

Please get this OG a hat.



 Sorry I'm a little late, I was in a hard-fought bidding war while trying to make the new hat.  It comes with a life-time1 satisfaction guarantee as usual.



avatar-sized



1 life-time satisfaction guarantee is commensurate with the life-time of your satisfaction
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