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Poll
Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (0.8%)
7/28 - 11 (9.1%)
8/4 - 16 (13.2%)
8/11 - 7 (5.8%)
8/18 - 6 (5%)
8/25 - 8 (6.6%)
After August - 72 (59.5%)
Total Voters: 121

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26484719 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
surfer43
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February 18, 2014, 04:22:12 PM
 #91221

Still massive dumps of Goxcoins, seems like people think they are worthless after all

as the poll indicates, clearly poeple have very little confidence they will resume withdrawals as promised.

are poeple trading gox on superior information or emotion... that is the question.




The Goxcoin price reaction to the update is either very weird or just shady
This is Goxcoin land. A 10% change in price is nothing.
magicmexican
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February 18, 2014, 04:26:16 PM
 #91222

What i mean is that price going from the ~300 to 412 after the update, and then down to 250 without any new info, just somewhat illogical.

I would be thinking that if there are people who think that their coins are gone - they should've sold their coins days ago, not now
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February 18, 2014, 04:26:46 PM
 #91223

Still massive dumps of Goxcoins, seems like people think they are worthless after all

as the poll indicates, clearly poeple have very little confidence they will resume withdrawals as promised.

are poeple trading gox on superior information or emotion... that is the question.
The fact that a number of people close to MtGox will have far superior information than me, and be in a position to act quicker than me in any event, deters me from touching Goxcoins or Goxbux with a bargepole. Whatever the outcome, I doubt I would be the winner.
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February 18, 2014, 04:28:03 PM
 #91224

Ok TA analysts and speculators...any idea on when the bear market will end ?
I wonder what will it take to restore the bullish sentiment on this thread. All this negativity is getting boring to be honest.
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February 18, 2014, 04:28:52 PM
 #91225

What i mean is that price going from the ~300 to 412 after the update, and then down to 250 without any new info, just somewhat illogical.

I would be thinking that if there are people who think that their coins are gone - they should've sold their coins days ago, not now

I agree with you, but you know the old saying: markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
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February 18, 2014, 04:31:24 PM
 #91226

What i mean is that price going from the ~300 to 412 after the update, and then down to 250 without any new info, just somewhat illogical.

I would be thinking that if there are people who think that their coins are gone - they should've sold their coins days ago, not now

Some are claiming that cash withdrawals still work in Euro and Yen, so maybe it's cash that's leaving or people are hoping they can withdraw cash, that would have that effect on price.

My book on Gox must be wrong only 700 BTC buy, to up price to 400!
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February 18, 2014, 04:45:49 PM
 #91227

Still massive dumps of Goxcoins, seems like people think they are worthless after all

as the poll indicates, clearly poeple have very little confidence they will resume withdrawals as promised.

are poeple trading gox on superior information or emotion... that is the question.

What i dont understand is why Gox isnt comuunicating clearly on the fact that they still have all the BTC from its customers. Clearly Gox should have millions of BTC in cold storage just because of being the historical trading plateform. I wouldnt be surprised if they give the BTC back to its customers. However, it seems some people are taking advantage of this excessive FUD about Gox being insolvent in BTC. Its not because they *can't* give the BTCs back that they necessarily *don't* have them anymore.
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February 18, 2014, 04:47:27 PM
 #91228

ppl still heavily selling @260 on Gox, i think it might go down below 200 in we wont get some super positive news this week
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February 18, 2014, 04:50:04 PM
 #91229

wish i were trading on Gox... people seem to have so much fun... much trading opportunities Cheesy
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February 18, 2014, 04:54:27 PM
 #91230

ppl still heavily selling @260 on Gox, i think it might go down below 200 in we wont get some super positive news this week

Such idiots.
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February 18, 2014, 04:58:00 PM
 #91231

What i dont understand is why Gox isnt comunnicating clearly on the fact that they still have all the BTC from its customers.

Indeed, that should make people wonder, shouldn't it?

I put the chances for [ GOX resuming withdrawals etc. ] at 99% as the Mt. Gox people will be locked up if they don't deliver.

Bernard Madoff too knew that he would be locked up if he didn't deliver.  Guess what?

Could it be that we'll soon witness the first definitive death of an altcoin -- the "MtGOX Bitcoin"?  Smiley
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February 18, 2014, 05:05:47 PM
 #91232

Oh shit, not the deflation problem again.

It's an Eternal September topic.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eternal_September
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February 18, 2014, 05:06:31 PM
 #91233

In the interest of saving forum space, I'll fit all the replies in one post.

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus link=topic=178336.msg5214663#msg5214663
hahaha, kkapser's a blowhard ... he's not writing 1000 lines of anything except pure unadulterated FUD.

1) every communist regime known has had rampant monetary inflation

2) the most prosperous nation and period known in economic history is the free market capitalism under the deflationary gold standard period of the 1800's in USA.

I can see that the the level of intelligence of the poster is in perfect correlation with the ability to spell my name..

1) Hyperinflation is as bad as hyperdeflation. Both are unstable forms of financial planning that will mess up the economy. While most of the communism countries suffered from hyperinflation, then hyperdeflation is the inevitable outcome of bitcoin.

2) Where the hell do you get this stuff?
Post-Revolutionary USA had economic growth first because of the success of cotton plantations and slavery, and after that, the industrial war nature of the civil war stimulated urbanization and building of railroads, all of this gave a boost to the economy.
Finance was a big mess in 1800s USA with series of failed banking acts and attempts to create a solid currency.



Quote from: Erdogan link=topic=178336.msg5214791#msg5214791

and consumption is made possible by production.

This is nonsense, every trade have two parties, that include you selling your work-hours.
Inflationary means the seller will quickly turn his new money into something of real value. Deflationary means that the buyer will quickly sell more to recoup his money. None of these forces have more weight than the other.


It doesn't work like that. Consumption creates production and not vice versa.
When Jack feels hunger, then Jack has to work before Jack can consume the food to satisfy his hunger.

Need for consumption always dictates the need of production. There is no need of production without the need of consumption.
So one does have more weigh then another.



Quote from: JayJuanGee link=topic=178336.msg5214816#msg5214816
surely I also believe in personal responsibility.. but there are also social systems that screw certain people... NOT everyone has an equal chance, contrary to the lore.

Well, thats life that everyone won't have an equal chance. The same thing is already set by nature, with some born weaker, shorter or with less intellectual potential. Life isn't fair and it sucks.
Communism actually had a goal to make things fair to everyone. It failed because it was unnatural and only created more problems then it solved.

Quote from: JayJuanGee link=topic=178336.msg5214816#msg5214816

NO HATING>>>>>> but You seem to be talking out of your ass to some extent about a prediction that everyone will be poorer.... You are trying to extrapolate some simple dynamics and paint a simple picture.... I just DONT buy it, but it does NOT seem to be worth arguing about.
I'm not inventing the wheel here with saying that inflation is more effective in aspect of economic strength. Academics who are a lot smarter on the subject then me and you have disputed the same subject and still the answer has emerged that controlled and stable inflation is the best way to go when considering economic strength.
But remember, with bitcoin we are not talking about controlled and stable deflation. We are talking about uncontrollable hyperdeflation.

Quote from: JayJuanGee link=topic=178336.msg5214816#msg5214816
You are leaving a lot of holes in your scenario... but there is some truth to the fact that the big guns may have a lot of money to throw against bitcoin and to develop competition... so that will be interesting to see how that plays out... and how many people die because of this battle.

 Your description of their planning their entrance strategy is a bit off base, though... b/c probably they are just a bit overwhelmed and confused and do NOT really know what to do about BTC.

When you'll find holes in my scenario then point them out and I'm happy to dispute or to agree with you.
My speculation about what are the "big boys" doing is far fetched I agree. It's solely based on assumption on what I would do if I were in their shoes. Assumptions like this have mostly served me right.




nonsense. when a person wants to use the bitcoin protocol, he or she can just do so. it´s free. (almost) no fees. if i decide to buy some sneakers and pay with bitcoin, well yes, i have to take some of my money and convert it into bitcoin. but that money is just the price of the sneaker - not the price for bitcoin. i don´t have to pay a premium because i use bitcoin. it´s free.


Nah, it's not free. Service companies similar to bitpay, who take care of the conversion, have to pay the early adoptors for the privilege to use the "protocol". Everyone who has to hold their value in bitcoin have to pay tribute to the early adopters.
This is the pyramid scheme part that attracts those big herds of people who wish to get rich quick without doing any work. This hyperdeflation part is good for attracting simple minded folks with promises of easy riches, but it makes bitcoin useless as an serious financial tool.
The enthusiasts make it sound like they are all about financial liberty, while actually they are just hoping for wealth redistribution. They don't want to change the world in a way that there won't be a class of wealthy elite people who only enjoy luxury without doing much work. They even want to increase this mentality and only change the people who are at the top, so they themselves can be there.

don´t be bitter. be thankful you did find out about it. you are an early adopter. join us & be happy.  Wink

It's too hard to lie to myself and pretend that all is fine. I'm not very good at comforting myself with false hopes made out of pretty illusions. I would be happy and calm if I would truly see that this will work. But I can't, no matter how much I try, I still see the ugly truth.



LOL. The concept of group dynamics and open source and first mover advantage is completely lost on this guy. He's got a lot of learning to do.

First mover advantage is the only thing that bitcoin has. The only reason why it's more expensive then the tens of other altcoins that have been created from the same source.
Rest doesn't mean much tho, because the development in bitcoin source is very slow and it's actually crippled by core properties like work-of-proof mining and 10 minute transaction times. You can only better the GUI and fix some bugs while you can't develop the core properties that actually need development the most.




Perhaps it seems that way but wealth can be stored in other means than cash. It does not neccessarily increase my consumption. Whether people 'save' in production should be a free choice to make, not a forced one.


And you can freely save up by buying necessary goods that hold value. Inflation doesn't stop you for doing that. Inflation only pushes you towards using your money on something, not just sitting on money.
Production isn't forced, but it's favored because it does increase it's countries economic strength. And economic strength is the thing that decides the survival of the fittest in the modern world.
Controlled and stable deflation system could also be used like the an stable and controlled inflation system. But the first country will always have less production then the last one.
But with bitcoin we are not talking about controlled and stable deflation, we are talking about inevitable uncontrollable hyperdeflation. And hyperdeflation is just as bad as hyperinflation, because the instability creates a lot of problems that will slow down the economy.



Broken window fallacy. Don't just know it, understand it. Then you might understand why production and consumption are not worthy goals in and of themselves.

Broken window fallacy isn't exactly an outcome of an strong and growing economy, but it is caused by the corrupt public sector that I talked about.
When world leaders decide to wage wars to stimulate the economy, then the economy is not to be blamed here. You could also start huge scientific projects with goals to colonize other planets or discover new ways to extract energy. This would stimulate the economy just as well as starting wars.
But people are to blame here who elect weak and corrupt politicians who act on the orders of warmongers, not on recommendations of top scientists. To make it short, broken window fallacy is cased by the lack of proper vision.



I hope I didn't miss anyone..
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February 18, 2014, 05:10:36 PM
 #91234

hodlers have balls of steel.  Grin

This requires a Duke Nukem link.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rAjily7rME
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February 18, 2014, 05:11:35 PM
 #91235


It's an Eternal September topic.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eternal_September

i knew it -if i would read this thread long enough i would learn something.
there it is.
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February 18, 2014, 05:28:22 PM
 #91236

I may be using the wrong term... but deflationary, means exactly that the currency buys more with the passage of time compared with goods and services.  So let's say a kid is born in 2020 and his parents invest 1 bitcoin into a stored wallet.  At that point, the bitcoin is equal to the equivalence of $10,000 in today's dollars.  Even if the value of the bitcoin goes up by 15% per year (which I believe is fairly modest), then in 20 years that bitcoin would be worth about $200,000 and in 30 years, $900K.  

yea that's what I was referring to as well but the total number of bitcoin users will stabilise at some point and so will the price, if deflationary at all at that point it will be a very low % which won't be incentive enough to hold as an investment.


Certainly the rate of increase will NOT be flat... and You may be correct that potentially in the long term the rate would be lower than something like 5%...
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February 18, 2014, 05:36:14 PM
 #91237

Do you know what fees they will charge?

Likely outrageous like other Bitcoin ATMs. I imagine it'll stay this way (though to a lesser extent once the machines are ubiquitous) because the user is paying for convenience, just like the $2-$5 fee at a cash ATM.

Don't confuse Bitcoin's "nearly free" nature with the businesses surrounding it. A business wouldn't stay in business if it didn't make money. The market will decide if it wants Bitcoin ATMs enough to pay the fee.

If Canada is an example then the market appears to be OK with it. Last I read a coffee shop ("Waves" I think) ATM could barely keep stocked with Bitcoin even though the fee was high.
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February 18, 2014, 05:37:42 PM
 #91238

Is it possible to transfer USD between MtGox users?

It might be worth buying some MtGox USD (for real world BTC), converting to MtGox BTC and if all goes well and MtGox hasn't lost all the BTC, withdrawing the BTC at a later date.

Anyone brave enough?
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February 18, 2014, 05:38:40 PM
 #91239

I don't understand why Bitcoin ATMs are such a big deal. It's almost like a kiosk for paying a credit card bill or something. Why would I pay a ridiculous premium for something I can do for so much cheaper at my own home?
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February 18, 2014, 05:40:15 PM
 #91240

Is it possible to transfer USD between MtGox users?

It might be worth buying some MtGox USD (for real world BTC), converting to MtGox BTC and if all goes well and MtGox hasn't lost all the BTC, withdrawing the BTC at a later date.

Anyone brave enough?
Some people have been trying to buy Gox-bucks on the forum in the past few days. I'm not sure how they facilitate the trade, because I've never used MtGox, but some people like to live dangerously.
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