Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[VB1001]

An all-time high for #Bitcoin difficulty.

https://twitter.com/Bitcoin/status/1171194022586535936


https://twitter.com/AlexKernA/status/1171058656022073344

Complicated of being here, but following the daily publications.

[1714901223]

1714901223

[jbreher]

You could just, you know, fork the 0.1 protocol.  Go ahead and fork the genesis block. Ain’t no one stopping you.

Ain't no one stopping us. Except -- you know -- every last one of us.

You're becoming unhinged, HM. Even moreso.

[mindrust]

But, do note that all three of us are planning to SELL BTC.  And, presumably, BUY something else.  And what to buy...?  I know what I want.......

But, of course, owning BTC also has a tremendous advantage that we all know about but rarely discuss: mobility.  So, however high BTC rises, I will keep some around for the freedom of movement it would support.

Buying more btc is always a good option. The prices JJG speculating on are all potential new ATH prices.

Let's say this blew up in the first round and after selling 1.xx btc from $50k and it never went higher and made a huge correction to $25k. (Statistically, btc never went below the last ATH after going down from the new ATH btw. If this happens it is a very bad sign.) seeing a %50 correction, I would just buy back some btc.

Now Reading again what I just wrote above, a %70+(Basically this is what happens after every new ATH. Get rich quick people are the majority and they instaleave the scene.)  correction from $50k would bring sub $20k prices indeed So If you decide to sell from $50k you are basically betting on that bitcoin will never ever recover or it'll take 5+ years at least for a recovery. I don't say this is impossible but this is the bet you are taking. (Or me, or whoever is selling at $50k and dreaming of buying back later)

Tldr; wait for $80k+

[jbreher]

I just remember reading through the GitHub commit timeline for BSV, seeing that they had decided to keep in dozens (or hundreds) of changes made by Core and ABC devs since 0.10. Its really only "Satoshi's Vision" if you believe Wright is Satoshi. That's the only way in which the "SV" portion of BSV makes sense as its pretty far from a return to the original protocol.

Well, other than the fact that it get closer each release.

[fillippone]

Wow.
That website is a goldmine if good material:

Stock to flow chart with new color scheme.
digitalik.net/btc/
#bitcoin #btc #stocktoflow

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EEDoihRXYAAWiVZ?format=jpg&name=large

[jbreher]

Remember Jstolfi?  

What the hell does Stolfi have to do with this? Absolutely nothing.

I already said what Stolfi had to do with this.  Some members have proclaimed that you are polite, and some members have proclaimed that Stolfi was polite.

I would like rational people to take note here of JJG's argument. To wit: Both myself and JStolfi are polite, therefore we are arguing the same things, and can be dismissed upon the same grounds.

Bravo, JJG. Better than Goebbels. Yer mum must be proud.

Haha. I just _know_ somebody's gonna misquote this. Fuck it.

[realr0ach]

Stock to flow chart

For the 5000th time, "stock to flow" does not work on imaginary, digital shitcoins, otherwise hundreds of dead POW coins would not already exist.  Anything like stock to flow only works on REAL commodity resources.  And please, no retards trying to claim Bitcoin is somehow magical and stock to flow will only work on it and not 'dogecoin' even though they're exactly the same thing.  You people are grade A retard scammers.  Since they're virtually identical, stock to flow would either have to work on both or neither, and it obviously doesn't work on both.

[maxreish]

My TA says, possibly the same scene from the previous one. If it doesn't break $11,000 resistance, then expect bears are coming soon and will go down to that blue line below. Well, there are still changes that may gonna happen. and if it will break $11k, let's go for $14k.
But for now, that's my TA.

[realr0ach]

You physically took a picture of your computer monitor.  I'd love for the Bitcoin pump and dump scam to go to zero and never be seen from again and the world go back to physical metals, but I'm not sure if anyone can put much faith in your TA if you don't know what the print screen button is.  And yes, of course the price can plummet when the cost of production is $3-4k and the rise upwards from $4k to now was completely artificial rigging from a single entity. It was probably the most obvious, artificial market rigging in the ENTIRE HISTORY OF BITCOIN.

[HairyMaclairy]

You could just, you know, fork the 0.1 protocol.  Go ahead and fork the genesis block. Ain’t no one stopping you.

Ain't no one stopping us. Except -- you know -- every last one of us.

You're becoming unhinged, HM. Even moreso.

Oh.  So you don’t want to use the 0.1 protocol.  Make up your mind, Bear !

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah, that’s a really good post by JJG. Well worth meriting!

Thanks LFC.  Maybe we need to thank Mindrust for providing us the scenario - and sure, sometimes, it can be helpful to put some numbers into a projection in order to assist some folks to sort through what might be important to them - including the fact that we don't really know how far the BTC price will go or when it will reverse into another nasty correction, which seems inevitable, at some point.

.[edited out funny stuffings]
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..... thats a very smart cash out program, and i should do that the next bullrun.
I´m living on ramen and noodles for being a HODLER since 2017...

Of course, it is good to attempt to figure out some kind of tentative plan before hand, and then maybe be able to have fully cooked meals, and maybe even steaks and lobsters?

Actually, with a portfolio value at the start of just $332,346, he shouldn't be cashing out $66,469 in the first year, sequence of returns risk and all that. But then we don't know the situation of the hodler and might actually need the fiat.

Of course, the cashing out schedule can be individually tailored regarding both triggering price points, triggering intervals, amounts sold at each price point, and the part that is not elaborated on here regarding whether and at what price points to buy back (and how much).  

Part of the point that I would want to attempt to achieve is to attempt to get out of the habit of timing BTC price matters and playing around too much with all or nothing thinking.  The system that I outlined would be a more pure attempt to cash out based on BTC prices points and to let the price come to you, rather than the other way around or not having a plan or getting too emotional and then NOT knowing what to do (which causes mistakes too).

Nothing in the above formula states anything about timeline to sell, exactly, but selling points just being triggered by price - even though there might be some assumptions about how fast the price will go to such price-points including that exponential growth could take BTC between $50k and $100k within a couple of years or perhaps higher within that timeline... but then again, it might not even make it to $50k in a couple of years.  

Surely, there might be some need to reconsider BTC selling price points (increments and quantities) if such exponential BTC growth does not happen in the next couple of years and therefore drags out longer.. maybe even 5 years or more?  Then what?  Rethink the plan, but attempt to have a plan that is tailored to yourself (and then let the price come to you) rather than trying to time the market and making rash choices that result in rash moves.

Actually, with a portfolio value at the start of just $332,346, he shouldn't be cashing out $66,469 in the first year, sequence of returns risk and all that. But then we don't know the situation of the hodler and might actually need the fiat.

What sort of approach would you suggest for someone who doesn’t need the money?

I understand that you are asking Dabs, Hairy, but I think that your asking the question about not needing the money would be almost an irrelevant consideration.  Maybe you would choose to structure smaller amounts?  or larger intervals? in order that you would have more BTC on the upside? Or maybe you would buy back more quickly?  That's part of the point about individually tailoring because even though I was attempting to work within the parameters that mindrust gave me, it still becomes very much a personal choice in terms of guys (and gal) figuring out their own financial circumstances which should have been done before even investing into BTC, but it's never too late to really attempt to figure out your own self and your financial circumstances rather than merely guessing, which even really smart people spend a lot of time guessing rather than really analyzing themselves and their various details that fall under the tried and true categories of cashflow, other investment, view of bitcoin as compared with other assets, risk tolerance, timeline and how much time and skills do you have for trading and/or researching. 

[realr0ach]

Oh.  So you don’t want to use the 0.1 protocol.  Make up your mind, Bear !

Excuse me for being a noob, but I was wondering if you could tell me what protocol version physical silver and gold are running on.  I'm worried that I will lose all my money by not using the correct physical silver protocol.

[JayJuanGee]

Oh gawd, Roach.  You are devolving into delirium.  

Devolving? Revolving.

Yes.  Perhaps I was just trying to be nice to the roach. 

I have been thinking that roach probably has a mean grandma, so I kind of feel sorry for the fella from time to time.

[realr0ach]

JayJuanGee, as the smartest person in the thread and the one we generally delegate all decisions to, do you believe women should be allowed to vote when they're genetically incapable of practicing utilitarianism - the foundation of modern civilization - and only exist to practice provider targeting, acquisition, and resource extraction?

[serveria.com]

My TA says, possibly the same scene from the previous one. If it doesn't break $11,000 resistance, then expect bears are coming soon and will go down to that blue line below. Well, there are still changes that may gonna happen. and if it will break $11k, let's go for $14k.
But for now, that's my TA.

Damn, how I missed these bearish TAs   So this one says we're going down to 8k? Well noobs and weak hands I guess it's time for you to sell because the world-famous BTC analyst maxreish says so.  

[DaRude]

wtf these new planes have jet engines, and cars have airbags?!?! But but none of this was in the original design!!!

OMG - but still TCP/IP ,  smtp, SWIFT, FIX  have not built in smart contracts - or did I miss u mix apples and crap?

Congrats you managed to fail on all levels, this is truly an accomplishment you should be proud of yourself

TCP/IP - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv6
smtp - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extended_SMTP
SWIFT - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Society_for_Worldwide_Interbank_Financial_Telecommunication#SWIFTNet_Phase_2
FIX - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FAST_protocol

Ha. Haha. Hahahahahhaaa. I should let this one go, but this is just too funny. Call me weak, I don't care.

I am intimately familiar with the contents of the underlying documents which officially define half of those protocols. I'm quite sure that neither rfc791, nor rfc793 nor rfc2460 nor rfc5321 nor any of their subsequent amplifications or revisions say doodly-squat about smart contracts.

But then again, I'm always up for learning something new. Where in each of those standards is the smart contract funcitonality hidden? Hmmmm?

You should be proud of yourself indeed. IOW, You managed to fail on all levels.

Ok let me spell it out. My simple argument was that no one cares about the original design, all things change and improve all the time, and even hv_ link proposed long standing standards have indeed went through few revisions as well. Apologies if it went over your had, didn't mean to make you look for smart contracts in IPv6 specs  

[Sharon121212]

JayJuanGee, as the smartest person in the thread and the one we generally delegate all decisions to, do you believe women should be allowed to vote when they're genetically incapable of practicing utilitarianism - the foundation of modern civilization - and only exist to practice provider targeting, acquisition, and resource extraction?

Utilitarianism you say?  If it's an action that can bring joy to vast number of people, then let's base on the saying that charity beginnings at home, women(some are the opposite though) are the back bone of joy in the family trying had to make necessary changes to bring about joy and overall well being in the family.
This is 2019 and every individual irrespective of the gender, race, religion etc is qualified to Vote and be voted for. However every qualifications or criticism should be based on the individual not a general view of the person sect, race gender, background an so on.

[DaRude]

How could evidence of personal identity have anything whatsoever to do with evidence of protocol change?

I'm not sure if you're trolling or trying to be serious.

Back at ya.

See any evidence of SegWit in the white paper? No?

Explicitly in front of your face. Willful dereliction of truthiness.

SegWit was indeed an alteration of the Bitcoin protocol. Undeniably. There is really no way to argue otherwise.

I am pretty confident the white paper doesn’t say anything about Turing completeness, legally enforceable smart contracts, token protocols,  large data storage capability and all the other shit in Bitcoin SV marketing

Yet interestingly, all fully supported in the 0.1 version of the Bitcoin protocol. You know, before the Cripple Rangers took control of the codebase. SegWit, on the other hand...

Funny, eh?
So what's the point you are trying to make?

Hey jbreher how would you spin EDA and bcash and BSv's current difficulty adjustment algos? what version did that come in?

Well, there's really no way to spin that. That's a change indeed.

Of course, SV is the project where the majority of vocal participants are stating a desire to return to the 0.1 protocol. So if this will come to pass, that will be rolled back. Of course there is no guarantee of future developments.

Meantime, that is a legitimate claim to a protocol change.

Wait so Bitcoin = bad because Segwit is "indeed an alteration of the Bitcoin protocol"
but bcash Bsv = good because their shitty changes are "legitimate claim to a protocol change"

That is indeed pretty f'ing funny. If not for your constant desperate shilling of shitcoins, you almost passed as an intelligent person, a shame really.

[mindrust]

Maan $8k feels like a dream I would instabuy 1 piece but I know it is not going to happen. Go bears!

[JayJuanGee]

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... wall of text removed for your viewing pleasure...
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Sell Price    BTC balance    BTCSell Amt  Pfolio$Value soldValue   soldTotal $47,478.00   7.00000000      0.00000000   $332,346.00   $0.00           $0.00 $47,478.00   7.00000000      1.40000000   $332,346.00   $66,469.20   $66,469.20 $56,973.60   5.60000000      1.12000000   $319,052.16   $63,810.43   $130,279.63 $68,368.32   4.48000000      0.89600000   $306,290.07   $61,258.01   $191,537.65 $82,041.98   3.58400000      0.71680000   $294,038.47   $58,807.69   $250,345.34 $98,450.38   2.86720000      0.57344000   $282,276.93   $56,455.39   $306,800.73 $118,140.46   2.29376000      0.45875200   $270,985.85   $54,197.17   $360,997.90 $141,768.55   1.83500800      0.36700160   $260,146.42   $52,029.28   $413,027.18 $170,122.26   1.46800640      0.29360128   $249,740.56   $49,948.11   $462,975.29 $204,146.71   1.17440512      0.23488102   $239,750.94   $47,950.19   $510,925.48 $244,976.05   0.93952410      0.18790482   $230,160.90   $46,032.18   $556,957.66 $293,971.26   0.75161928      0.15032386   $220,954.47   $44,190.89   $601,148.56 $352,765.51   0.60129542      0.12025908   $212,116.29   $42,423.26   $643,571.81 $423,318.62   0.48103634      0.09620727   $203,631.64   $40,726.33   $684,298.14 $507,982.34   0.38482907      0.07696581   $195,486.37   $39,097.27   $723,395.42 $609,578.81   0.30786326      0.06157265   $187,666.92   $37,533.38   $760,928.80

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...this space for rent...
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nah mate, you are doing it wrong... A real HODLER sells 7 BTC at $609,578.81 for a nice stack of $ 4,267,051.6 (fresh printed bills) and starts livin´ la vida loca.

Just kidding.. thats a very smart cash out program, and i should do that the next bullrun.
I´m living on ramen and noodles for being a HODLER since 2017...

The above would be similar to what I have in mind as a BTC speculator.  Note term "speculator", that is what JJG and _javi_ are advocating.  And there's nothing wrong with that, I too am speculating with BTC.  

Of course, we are engaging in speculating, but we are also engaging in investing.  There are a lot of ways that practices can vary depending on length of time or amount of deliberation regarding percentage allocated in bitcoin as compared with other investments, and also whether a person is merely guessing or if they might have their expenses projected out into the future, including covering expenses and thereafter considering how much discretionary value is left to speculate or invest..

Again, the above is similar to my own plans.

That is a scenario that was based on some ideas that mindrust gave regarding his cashing out intentions, and I presented him with some alternative ideas regarding another scenario that is different from his, but might better help him to maintain his goals while cashing out part of his BTC stash along the way, that is if BTC adequately cooperates.

But, do note that all three of us are planning to SELL BTC.  

That is not my plan, exactly because I am selling less BTC on the way up, but I am also selling sooner, including currently... but in my current, tentative plan, I would also have a higher percentage of my original BTC in the event BTC were to go to $600k or higher.

Of course, I might change my plan to become more aggressive in the selling arena, as mindrust seems to want to be, but currently, I am not in such mood to be aggressively selling BTC.

And, presumably, BUY something else.  And what to buy...?  I know what I want.......

Well, yeah, the proceeds from the sales could be for consuming or investing in something else or it also could be just to hold in the event BTC prices fall back down and to use the proceeds to rebuy.  Each person has to decide where s/he falls in that regard.

But, of course, owning BTC also has a tremendous advantage that we all know about but rarely discuss: mobility.  So, however high BTC rises, I will keep some around for the freedom of movement it would support.

[Edited for clarity]

I agree.  Mobility of asset, increasingly more liquidation options and self-sovereignty over assets should be major considerations for everyone to want to keep some BTC, even if the price might be dropping.