Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChiNgadOr]

Shorting into a bull market is fine if you do it intermittently. We’re still in a baby bull market so when we get rejected at certain price intervals I’m sure you can make money shorting.

If you continue to short into a bull market then you’re going to end up REKT especially if you think you’re going to keep doing it as we approach & pass the halving when the price is likely to go parabolic.

Stay smart, don’t get REKT.

Note - I don’t actively trade any way. imo it’s for chancers & at times morons. Buy & HODL= the key to success.

For chancers and morons? well, I like to be one of them if it makes me earn money. The fact is that I have been trading already for 2 decades, and I can guarantee you that I made most of my profits trading instead of holding. Much more profitable after i shifted from traditional markets to crypto in 2011, because there is so high volatility (aka manipulation..)
Halvening will occur, market will rise, but not before another really BIG dump. By the way, I don't think BTC will never ever get close to last ATH.. then people wil start realizing money doesn't grow in trees.

[1713915376]

1713915376

[STT]

I am shorting like crazy.. time will tell us who was right and wrong

Shorting Bitcoin means you are long dollar but we neglect to look at Dollar as part of the price or any price.   Impossible to say a trade is all wrong for someone else, most of us have too much exposure to dollar worth via pensions etc.    Both have a changing value, I'm not sure I love the idea of going long Dollar long term but shorting is usually a short term call and a swing trade possibly.    Didnt we already fall enough to say shorting now is a bit late to be a swing trade.   So its a day trade type of activity to short now, thats how I'd view it.

I think we retest the 50 day this week possibly.  Weekly bars looks more bullish then other views.

[bkbirge]

FFS, this guy has the luck of the devil, talk about abuse of the court system...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-judge-rules-that-craig-wright-wont-forfeit-bitcoin-in-kleiman-case

The judge questioned the plausibility of Wright’s previous assertion that this courier would deliver the slice by January 2020. However, she did say that the court should indulge him the opportunity.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Open interest impact, this January 9 with 70% more than in 2019.

Bitcoin Options Launch Imminent as CME Open Interest Hits 7-Month High http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BitcoinIndependentNewsAndBlog/~3/sRcf1omjCNE/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Via Twitter: https://twitter.com/crypto_bittrail/status/1216711765628575744

According to aggregate volume data for Bitcoin futures products by analyst Skew Markets, global futures trading volume crossed the $20 billion mark on Jan. 8 alone.

Source: https://cryptonewmedia.press/2020/01/13/bitcoin-options-launch-imminent-as-cme-open-interest-hits-7-month-high/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BitcoinIndependentNewsAndBlog+%28Cryptocurrency+new+media+press%29

[nutildah]

FFS, this guy has the luck of the devil, talk about abuse of the court system...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-judge-rules-that-craig-wright-wont-forfeit-bitcoin-in-kleiman-case
The judge questioned the plausibility of Wright’s previous assertion that this courier would deliver the slice by January 2020. However, she did say that the court should indulge him the opportunity.

The title of the article is grossly misleading.

It's not that he "won't forfeit" the bitcoin, its just that the Head Judge (sic) overturned the Vice Judge's (sic) ruling -- for now. In the far off, million-to-one, basically implausible scenario that Craig actually does have the Satoshi Stash private keys (he doesn't), he will definitely still owe Kleiman half of it, as a new ruling will be made that says so.

I covered it extensively, because, that's what I do:

Much like the whole white paper copyright registration fake news, this is simply a pump capitalizing on false pretenses. This time, Craig's defense says the judge's sanctions were inappropriate because he could not disclose his bitcoin holdings until after receiving "the remaining cryptographic slice" from the bonded courier. The appellate court overseeing the issue agreed that they should wait until February 3rd for the courier to appear before slamming him with a half million bitcoin debt to Ira Kleiman.

However, most of what the court had to say about Wright wasn't very kind.

The Court notes that although the Defendant was ordered to produce all documents related to the blind trust by May 9, 2019, the Defendant had still failed to timely produce all documents that he had in his possession as of the evidentiary hearing date. In fact, as late as January 6, 2020, it was the Plaintiff who advised the Court that the Defendant produced another document purportedly related to the blind trusts. Plaintiffs advise that the Defendant has not provided any explanation as to the document’s late disclosure. At the status conference on January 9, 2020, Plaintiffs also called into question the document’s authenticity.

...the sole evidence put forward to establish the Defendant’s claim of impossibility, his own testimony, was found not to be credible by Judge Reinhart... (“I completely reject Dr. Wright’s testimony about the alleged Tulip Trust, the alleged encrypted file, and his inability to identify his bitcoin holdings . . . During his testimony, Dr. Wright’s demeanor did not impress me as someone who was telling the truth.”).

The Court has also reviewed the transcripts from the Evidentiary Hearing held by Judge Reinhart and agrees with his credibility findings relating to Defendant. Indeed, in answering opposing counsel’s questions, the Defendant was evasive, refused to give and interpret words in their very basic meanings, was combative, and became defensive when confronted with previous inconsistencies.

...the Court has no doubt that the Plaintiffs were prejudiced by the Defendant’s antics. It is clear to the Court that the Defendant’s conduct was anything but substantially justified or harmless. Defendant’s conduct delayed and obstructed the discovery process of this case, wasted valuable time and resources in litigating this issue, and prevented the Plaintiff from obtaining evidence that the Magistrate Judge found relevant to the Plaintiffs’ claims. Therefore, the Court rejects the Defendants’ argument that no prejudice has been suffered by the Plaintiffs as a result of the Defendant’s conduct. Such argument is entirely devoid of merit.

Finally, the Defendant argues that at minimum he “should have been afforded the opportunity to wait until [the date the bonded courier is set to come] to see if he receives the key slices to generate the list of his bitcoin holdings, which he could then provide to plaintiffs.” Defendant contends that in the event this occurs, “even plaintiffs would have to concede that Dr. Wright’s inability to do the impossible and comply with the discovery order caused them absolutely no prejudice.” Given the Defendant’s many inconsistencies and misstatements, the Court questions whether it is remotely plausible that the mysterious “bonded courier” is going to arrive, yet alone that he will arrive in January 2020 as the Defendant now contends. However, given that the Defendant maintains that he should at least be afforded this opportunity, the Court will indulge him this much.

https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.521536/gov.uscourts.flsd.521536.373.0.pdf

The court order, while stating that Judge Reinhart's sanctions on Wright had been "improperly imposed," is still just a slam on Wright that is being cleverly re-interpreted to fool people into thinking that Wright is going to produce evidence that a bonded courier is scheduled to deliver cryptographic "slices" proving that he owns Satoshi's bitcoin stash.

Spoiler alert: He won't.

Basically, nothing new here.

Short BSV if you can.

[makrospex]

Halvening will occur, market will rise, but not before another really BIG dump. By the way, I don't think BTC will never ever get close to last ATH.. then people wil start realizing money doesn't grow in trees.

Quoted for future ridicule

 

He wrote

I don't think BTC will never ever get close to last ATH...

So he was meaning the opposite.
Or is my english really that bad?

EDIT: My opinion on all this: It wouldn't make sense to drop to $4k, where we were mid-2019. It will ultimately be lower (sub $3k) or higher ($5-6k), but in the "lower-case", this would mean a massive swap of held bitcoin into the hands of hodlers, which i suggest, is quite unlikely.

[bitserve]

Halvening will occur, market will rise, but not before another really BIG dump. By the way, I don't think BTC will never ever get close to last ATH.. then people wil start realizing money doesn't grow in trees.

Quoted for future ridicule

 

He wrote "I don't think BTC will never ever get close to last ATH...
So he was meaning the opposite.
Or is my english so bad?

Double negation, yeah. So he does indeed expect Bitcoin to get close to last ATH eventually... Unless his english is worse than ours.

[Last of the V8s]

Narrator: his English was worse than theirs.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

<snip>

For chancers and morons? well, I like to be one of them if it makes me earn money. The fact is that I have been trading already for 2 decades, and I can guarantee you that I made most of my profits trading instead of holding. Much more profitable after i shifted from traditional markets to crypto in 2011, because there is so high volatility (aka manipulation..)
Halvening will occur, market will rise, but not before another really BIG dump. By the way, I don't think BTC will never ever get close to last ATH.. then people wil start realizing money doesn't grow in trees.

We already know that money does not grow in trees. Money is something you print when you want which is backed by debt. I [the gov] can fake the debt and ask FED to print more money when I need. You want to know the future of your so called money? Here is the picture:



We really do not need money by the way.

2 decades of trading experience and your understanding of money is still not even close to my 13 months old girl.

[makrospex]

Halvening will occur, market will rise, but not before another really BIG dump. By the way, I don't think BTC will never ever get close to last ATH.. then people wil start realizing money doesn't grow in trees.

Quoted for future ridicule

 

He wrote "I don't think BTC will never ever get close to last ATH...
So he was meaning the opposite.
Or is my english so bad?

Double negation, yeah. So he does indeed expect Bitcoin to get close to last ATH eventually... Unless his english is worse than ours.

 
Still there are some valid points in his arguments, despite his self proclaimed experience (sry, just trying to be realistic here).
I'm bullish for the long run, but the run might be indeed - very long. The 2017 "bubble" wasn't healthy nor helpful to the market, imo.

[makrospex]

2 decades of trading experience and your understanding of money is still not even close to my 13 months old girl.

Y'all are free to doubt my usage of sMerit, but this bold statement happily milked out my last one, without hesitation  

[dragonvslinux]

While feeling short-term bearish, I always like to review the longer-term bullish scenarios, of which I already have a few. Now that more data has been crunched by the indicators I predominantly use (CMF, RSI and MACD), there is noticeably potential for a rounding bottom formation. The indicators and also confirming this possibility, this is first piece of evidence for a new ATH this year (that everyone has now seemingly ruled out):



CMF: bullish divergence approaching 0
RSI: Finding support from 40 (bearish level)
MACD: Losing bearish momentum

Price would need to confirm this pattern with a new swing low in early February (6th-11th ideally), in order to continue moving higher in this manner.
Haven't published this on TV yet, was hoping to get some opinions or alternative perspectives from this thread  

This is a pretty optimistic view. I'd prefer that one too but what if this happens?

I'd say it's the most optimistic view I can imagine yes, without pointing a vertical arrow to $100K.
It'd also need to find that support in February to be considered as a valid possibility.

The new ath and $50k+ might take longer than we expect. Anybody here has enough patience to wait till 2023? (...for a friggin new ATH )

Sounds great to me, more time to accumulate. Only so much fiat I can earn per year. Count me in!

Same view on 2014-2017 bowl.



From 2014's ATH to early 2017, it took exactly 3 years. But 20k ATH at late 2017, the triangle is bigger than the 1k. A lot bigger. My logic says the recovery from the last ATH (20k) should take a lot longer too.

See the triangle from 2014? It took 1 year to all the way down. Only then we started to consolidate for a year. Then rise. Looks like our current triangle is about to take MORE than 2 years. Maybe even 3. Fuck.

I hope It doesn't happen that way and we'll see a moon rocket straight to the new ATH after the halvening.

The only good news is on these charts, 200 Weekly MA is pretty much the safest bottom and you can't lose  if you buy from that support line.

I agree with logic too, most of my bullish TA isn't expected a new ATH until 2021 at earliest (last I checked), even 2022 or later. It's likely to take much longer this time around to reach an ATH as you said, even break out of an accumulation zone (that's yet to really be confirmed). Or, like in 2012 that had a parabolic bounce back (a path we are still following post descending triangle breakdown), it will occur much sooner than anyone thinks, My primary reasoning for the above is the differences in this correction and parabolic bounce back compared to 2014. There are a lot more similarities with the 2018 and 2012 corrections, more so in recent weeks and months I'm finding, hence considering the above.

Appreciate your opinions, even if they remain similar to mine. The the alternative perspectives help develop my own analysis.

[ChiNgadOr]

<snip>

For chancers and morons? well, I like to be one of them if it makes me earn money. The fact is that I have been trading already for 2 decades, and I can guarantee you that I made most of my profits trading instead of holding. Much more profitable after i shifted from traditional markets to crypto in 2011, because there is so high volatility (aka manipulation..)
Halvening will occur, market will rise, but not before another really BIG dump. By the way, I don't think BTC will never ever get close to last ATH.. then people wil start realizing money doesn't grow in trees.

We already know that money does not grow in trees. Money is something you print when you want which is backed by debt. I [the gov] can fake the debt and ask FED to print more money when I need. You want to know the future of your so called money? Here is the picture:



We really do not need money by the way.

2 decades of trading experience and your understanding of money is still not even close to my 13 months old girl.

When did I said fiat was the solution?

Also got many friends from Venezuela.. inflation and free money printing from thin air is really funny (ooh.. on that regard, don't forget Tether's role during last bullrun in 2017). Summarizing: fiat sucks.. and US is really f**Ed with the depreciation of US$.. but try to make a 10% price change in any forex pair with $500M as it is done with BTC in Bitmex for example.

I don't doubt about future of blockchain, it is a great techonology, also cryptocurrencies.. I am just worried about BTC as the Messiah for the social inclusion and financial freedom.. Satoshi's Spirit went down the toilet some time ago. Regards to your old months girl, from my 10 months old boy.. and have been last 2 days in the hospital with fever..this worries still much more than BTC!

[bitserve]

Halvening will occur, market will rise, but not before another really BIG dump. By the way, I don't think BTC will never ever get close to last ATH.. then people wil start realizing money doesn't grow in trees.

Quoted for future ridicule

 

He wrote "I don't think BTC will never ever get close to last ATH...
So he was meaning the opposite.
Or is my english so bad?

Double negation, yeah. So he does indeed expect Bitcoin to get close to last ATH eventually... Unless his english is worse than ours.

 
Still there are some valid points in his arguments, despite his self proclaimed experience (sry, just trying to be realistic here).
I'm bullish for the long run, but the run might be indeed - very long. The 2017 "bubble" wasn't healthy nor helpful to the market, imo.

That's why I learnt to try not be too hard on bears... and also because, even if they are wrong, we need em to:

1- Get some balance and our feet on earth.
2- Feed price rise with their rekt shorts

At some time the exponential price rise will be gone. That doesn't mean Bitcoin is/will be over, probably much on the contrary.

I already said I am not expecting (hoping, yes) any more 5x-10x in a single year anymore. In fact I would prefer if we reach the stage in which Bitcoin stops crazily overshooting and overdumping afterwards for a more "sane and healthy" price growth instead.

[Dabs]

Or he could be implying that it's going to go waaay past the ATH, so it won't even be close, but far away.

[ChiNgadOr]

Or he could be implying that it's going to go waaay past the ATH, so it won't even be close, but far away.

nope.. i meant no more "easy money party".

Halvening will occur, market will rise, but not before another really BIG dump. By the way, I don't think BTC will never ever get close to last ATH.. then people wil start realizing money doesn't grow in trees.

Quoted for future ridicule

 

He wrote "I don't think BTC will never ever get close to last ATH...
So he was meaning the opposite.
Or is my english so bad?

Double negation, yeah. So he does indeed expect Bitcoin to get close to last ATH eventually... Unless his english is worse than ours.

Ouch sorry, my english sucks.. a real self taught man -not like this shitty Ian Balina-.. I learnt english playing videogames when I was a child (monkey island, maniac mansion.. ). Speak some english, german, french, but native spanish.. so please forgive my life for my mistakes.

[becoin]

Please, explain me how if my liquidation is:
212079$ for BTC

The Fed keeps printing trillions of $$$. They can't stop and printing will accelerate. You'll be at your liquidation level sooner than you think!

[gentlemand]

Ouch sorry, my english sucks.. a real self taught man -not like this shitty Ian Balina-.. I learnt english playing videogames when I was a child (monkey island, maniac mansion.. ). Speak some english, german, french, but native spanish.. so please forgive my life for my mistakes.

Nah. Your English is fine.

The point people are making is that we see a lot of people here who become convinced of their belief and refuse to let go of it. If you stick to one point of view, bullish or bearish, at some time you will be categorically and catastrophically wrong. If you're using margin trading that's very dangerous.

The market doesn't care what anyone thinks about anything. If you can win then great. There's a strong chance of losing too. I prefer to sit back, have general faith and do nothing.

[Last of the V8s]

Narrator: 

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

I don't doubt about future of blockchain, it is a greta techonology, also cryptocurrencies.. I am just worried about BTC as the Messiah for the social inclusion and financial freedom.. Satoshi's Spirit went down the toilet some time ago. Regards to your old months girl, from my 10 months old boy.. and have been last 2 days in the hospital with fever..this worries still much more than BTC!

[...]

Is Greta Thunberg a blockchain supporter? That's BIG news, I was a bit hesitant, but now I'm going ALL IN!