Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Lambie Slayer]

[edited out]

Yeah, I know it sucks JJG, aka GayJuanGee, to be completely bested with accurate observations and have your text walls and tedious quoting tactics rendered useless.

But dont worry, once you learn to be more respectful and less antagonistic to others the embarrassment will fade.  

Busted?

You are a fucking retard.. both you and your revisionist history fantasylandias.  

Hopefully, no innocent persons were damaged by your nonsense by either selling BTC or waiting to buy BTC when they should have been buying, when your stupid-ass predictions did not even come close to coming true.. except your lame-ass attention-whore seeking attempts to revise history.

I was about 90% until we hit 6000.  then I was'nt sure about this rally at all so sold for now.  

Im probably gonna wait till sub 2k.   I mean not that it's worth 2k, but the charts are the charts.   See you at the bottom of phase C, when you will be telling everyone to sell

I'll predict the future. Bitcoin won't be $10,000 ever again.

Special guests have already been invited.

Should add dumb-ass lambie-bambie to the list of retards who have a posting history of attempting to talk innocent peeps out of their coins.

I remember Lambie correctly and repetitively calling the bottom at 3.1k Dec. 2018 and again @6K in Dec. 2019  (so far successfully).
Anyone listening to his advice made out really well, myself included.
Ironically, I remember you had denied the notions of the beginning of bear market in early January 2017 until we were at 6K for a sustained period. Not that I'd ever blame anyone other than myself, You were one of the voices I gave weight to during that time of which you were wholly wrong.  
From my perspective, you are neither correct nor have a foot to stand on in your accusations towards Lambie.
No disrespect intended JJG, I think you're just triggered by the personal pokes of lately.
Stick to your ladder droning shtick.

Thank you Mr. Icy, very well said.  

If anyone, chat bots included, wants to know exactly what I think atm about Bitcoin price direction...

Im as always Uberbullish and firmly believe in the path to 1 million dollars per coin and beyond.
Im no longer short term Bearish as the Coronavirus and approaching halving have destroyed any more chances to reach or go below the minimum Bargain Boyz Buy Zone of 6500.

Its all Bullish all the time for the next few years for me.

The Baby Bull was born in December of '18, as it got a bit older it ran with a shady group of friends and experimented with some hard drugs. This caused the mini bubble of 2019 to climax at 14k.

Our young bull child layed off the hard drugs of crack and hopium and we fell to the Bargain Boyz Buy Zone of 6500.

Rehab for the young bull was hard and he was in danger of falling to lower prices, but tensions with Iran and the Coronavirus made the world fall in love with our young Bull again and he was cured of his Mini Bear Market hopium withdrawal symptoms.

Soon our young Bull will head off to Halvening University where he will meet girls, get layed, and take us to All Time Highs before winter.


via Imgflip Meme Generator

The future is bright Gents, the Bargains of the past will soon be distant memories.

Invest everything you can afford to lose.

[1714951199]

1714951199

[1714951199]

1714951199

[1714951199]

1714951199

[Lambie Slayer]

For anyone looking to really smoke some Hopium, here goes.

What if the Chinese Communist Party ends up losing power from the Coronavirus and transitions to a Democracy in the next few years. What would that mean for Bitcoin.

Ill tell you what it means. We will get full legalization of Bitcoin as a currency in China, a return of Chinese Bitcoin exchanges, a Chinese Bitcoin ETF, and much more.

[jbreher]

In my opinion it is this:

It is one thing to find an alternative protocol to Bitcoin interesting, or believe in it as an investment.

I don't agree with this view, but people have the right to make choices, even if they ultimately prove to be wrong.  Live and let live.

However, going so far as refusing to condemn the objectively indefensible, places someone beyond the possibility of respect.  A fellow traveler ceases to be a friend, which is a shame.

Craig Wright's lack of principles and honesty is objectively indefensible.  This has been proven in a court of law.  He has lied under oath; it is not unreasonable to conclude he lives a tissue of lies.

When any man is obviously of sound mind and intelligent, but still disregards the obvious and will not condemn this plainly malignant, transparent liar, one can only conclude he is either; as corrupt as the man he defends, too egotistical, or too weak and foolish to look in the mirror and admit that he might be wrong.

And again, you conflate my support of BSV with support of CSW. Just no.

Dashjr has stated it is legitimate to kill all non-xtians. Does that taint all of BTC? No. For the person and the coin are two different things.

Do you think TRX and Justin Sun are two different things? Do you think TRX is not tainted by Justin?

If you believe that, then I have some TRX to sell you.  

There are plenty of reasons to completely ignore TRX. So I do.

Irrelevant false equivalence is irrelevant.

“I don’t like your question because I can’t answer it truthfully without revealing my corruption so I am going to pretend that I am above answering it”.

Have you considered running for office?

Don’t be a pussy.  Answer the question. Yes or No.

I answered the question. TRX is irrelevant to me. I can't be bothered to spend the time to look into it. Perhaps you have infinite amounts of free time on your hands. I do not.

Don’t pretend ignorance of Justin Sun and TRX - it’s completely transparent  You always run away from hard questions.

Stop being a pussy and answer the question.   Can Justin Sun be separated from TRX.  Yes or No.  

Go fuck yourself. I have no idea, and I can't be arsed to look into it.

But maybe we can figure it out together. What control does Justin Sun have over TRX? For example, can he censor transactions?

Yes.  Justin Sun can censor transactions the same way Calvin Ayre can



Stop deflecting and running away from the question.  Answer the question.  Yes or No.  

If Justin Sun can censor txs on TRX, then yes, Justin Sun has undue control over TRX.

Your implication that Ayre has such control over BSV is just embarrassing ignorance.

ANY SHA256 miner can guarantee that BSV will live. All they need do is not cease mining.

Now go fuck yourself.

[Lambie Slayer]

94 days till our young Bull Market goes off to Halvening University and all is well. 

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Yeah, I know it sucks JJG, aka GayJuanGee, to be completely bested with accurate observations and have your text walls and tedious quoting tactics rendered useless.

But dont worry, once you learn to be more respectful and less antagonistic to others the embarrassment will fade.  

Busted?

You are a fucking retard.. both you and your revisionist history fantasylandias.  

Hopefully, no innocent persons were damaged by your nonsense by either selling BTC or waiting to buy BTC when they should have been buying, when your stupid-ass predictions did not even come close to coming true.. except your lame-ass attention-whore seeking attempts to revise history.

I was about 90% until we hit 6000.  then I was'nt sure about this rally at all so sold for now.  

Im probably gonna wait till sub 2k.   I mean not that it's worth 2k, but the charts are the charts.   See you at the bottom of phase C, when you will be telling everyone to sell

I'll predict the future. Bitcoin won't be $10,000 ever again.

Special guests have already been invited.

Should add dumb-ass lambie-bambie to the list of retards who have a posting history of attempting to talk innocent peeps out of their coins.

I remember Lambie correctly and repetitively calling the bottom at 3.1k Dec. 2018 and again @6K in Dec. 2019  (so far successfully).
Anyone listening to his advice made out really well, myself included.
Ironically, I remember you had denied the notions of the beginning of bear market in early January 2017 until we were at 6K for a sustained period. Not that I'd ever blame anyone other than myself, You were one of the voices I gave weight to during that time of which you were wholly wrong.  
From my perspective, you are neither correct nor have a foot to stand on in your accusations towards Lambie.
No disrespect intended JJG, I think you're just triggered by the personal pokes of lately.
Stick to your ladder droning shtick.

If you are reading me to be making BTC predictions then you having been missing the gist.. and that's up to you....      I have been largely criticizing Lambie-bambie for ongoingly acting like a fucktwat and a wannabe sorcerer, and sure if you want to believe that he has some kind of sorcerer status or that he was right about some things, that is on you.... It's not going to stop me from continuing to refer to him as an attention whore and drama queen and history revising dweeb.   

And, also someone who has been engaging in a behavior that likely caused some people to wait for lower BTC prices, or fail to buy BTC when the BTC price was not going lower, and if you recall he was already largely calling for a BTC correction when the BTC price got up to $6k the first time around in April-May-ish... so yeah, sooner or later he is going to be correct that they are going to go down, but they did not even go below $6k as he was suggesting to be likely......

Of course, I repeat myself in various aspects, whether you want to describe those repetitions as a schtik or whatever that's up to you, but yeah, I recommend DCA, buying on dips, and selling on BTC price increases but only selling small amounts... and incrementalism...  and of course, tailoring your style to your budget and other aspects such as other investments, risk tolerance, timeline and other matters, including not over doing matters.

In essence, I have mostly not been in the business of making BTC price predictions, except maybe deviating a bit from 50/50 from time to time.. so if you are reading me as a price predictor, then you surely got me wrong... except in the long term I am presuming that there is an inclination that BTC prices are going up, even though it may take some time to ensure that, so you can label those kinds of inclinations however you want..  but yeah, I tend to be a bit hostile towards attempts to time the market whether up or down and also a bit hostile towards the assignment of too high of probability to outcomes whether long term or short term and especially hostile to diptwats who overly proclaim knowledge of down status that might cause some innocent folks to fail/refuse to buy or to DCA or to actually establish a BTC position because they are too busy waiting and scared by fucktwats like lambie acting like he knows things, when he doesn't know shit, and I could give less than two shits if such diptwats like lambie happen to get lucky in his calls or his desire to say I told you so and all that bullshit.. so yeah,...  I am in the business of pointing out out the drama queen sorcerer wannabes, history revisionaries such as dicktwat lambie, and there is no need for me to defend my record at various points throughout the whole 20/20 is hindsight bitcoin history of what ended up being a bear market between early 2018 until about April or May 2019.. and we did not know how to label such market until afterwards.... so fucking what?  I am not taking anything back what I said during that time, and all my posts from then stand unedited... and I am not backing off from a single one of them from the time that any of them was posted.

[Lambie Slayer]

[edited out]

Yeah, I know it sucks JJG, aka GayJuanGee, to be completely bested with accurate observations and have your text walls and tedious quoting tactics rendered useless.

But dont worry, once you learn to be more respectful and less antagonistic to others the embarrassment will fade.  

Busted?

You are a fucking retard.. both you and your revisionist history fantasylandias.  

Hopefully, no innocent persons were damaged by your nonsense by either selling BTC or waiting to buy BTC when they should have been buying, when your stupid-ass predictions did not even come close to coming true.. except your lame-ass attention-whore seeking attempts to revise history.

I was about 90% until we hit 6000.  then I was'nt sure about this rally at all so sold for now.  

Im probably gonna wait till sub 2k.   I mean not that it's worth 2k, but the charts are the charts.   See you at the bottom of phase C, when you will be telling everyone to sell

I'll predict the future. Bitcoin won't be $10,000 ever again.

Special guests have already been invited.

Should add dumb-ass lambie-bambie to the list of retards who have a posting history of attempting to talk innocent peeps out of their coins.

I remember Lambie correctly and repetitively calling the bottom at 3.1k Dec. 2018 and again @6K in Dec. 2019  (so far successfully).
Anyone listening to his advice made out really well, myself included.
Ironically, I remember you had denied the notions of the beginning of bear market in early January 2017 until we were at 6K for a sustained period. Not that I'd ever blame anyone other than myself, You were one of the voices I gave weight to during that time of which you were wholly wrong.  
From my perspective, you are neither correct nor have a foot to stand on in your accusations towards Lambie.
No disrespect intended JJG, I think you're just triggered by the personal pokes of lately.
Stick to your ladder droning shtick.

If you are reading me to be making BTC predictions then you having been missing the gist.. and that's up to you....      I have been largely criticizing Lambie-bambie for ongoingly acting like a fucktwat and a wannabe sorcerer, and sure if you want to believe that he has some kind of sorcerer status or that he was right about some things, that is on you.... It's not going to stop me from continuing to refer to him as an attention whore and drama queen and history revising dweeb.   
Slayer has been ruining my life of late. He has shown everyone the easy formula to neutralize my silly text walls and tedious quotes within quotes within quotes within quotes response strategies.

And, also someone who has been engaging in a behavior that likely caused some people to wait for lower BTC prices, or fail to buy BTC when the BTC price was not going lower, and if you recall he was already largely calling for a BTC correction when the BTC price got up to $6k the first time around in April-May-ish... so yeah, sooner or later he is going to be correct that they are going to go down, but they did not even go below $6k as he was suggesting to be likely...... I often lie about when Slayer was short term bearish. He busted me on this with a quote of his that I had merited that fully proved I was full of it. To this day I pretend this never happened, but I think about it all the time. My reading comprehension sucks and Ive argued with most people here bc I couldnt understand what they wrote properly.

Of course, I repeat myself in various aspects, whether you want to describe those repetitions as a schtik or whatever that's up to you, but yeah, I recommend DCA, buying on dips, and selling on BTC price increases but only selling small amounts... and incrementalism...  and of course, tailoring your style to your budget and other aspects such as other investments, risk tolerance, timeline and other matters, including not over doing matters. Yes, I live to repeat myself. Its so boring its interesting.

In essence, I have mostly not been in the business of making BTC price predictions, except maybe deviating a bit from 50/50 from time to time.. so if you are reading me as a price predictor, then you surely got me wrong... except in the long term I am presuming that there is an inclination that BTC prices are going up, even though it may take some time to ensure that, so you can label those kinds of inclinations however you want..  but yeah, I tend to be a bit hostile towards attempts to time the market whether up or down and also a bit hostile towards the assignment of too high of probability to outcomes whether long term or short term and especially hostile to diptwats who overly proclaim knowledge of down status that might cause some innocent folks to fail/refuse to buy or to DCA or to actually establish a BTC position because they are too busy waiting and scared by fucktwats like lambie acting like he knows things, when he doesn't know shit, and I could give less than two shits if such diptwats like lambie happen to get lucky in his calls or his desire to say I told you so and all that bullshit.. so yeah,...  I am in the business of pointing out out the drama queen sorcerer wannabes, history revisionaries such as dicktwat lambie, and there is no need for me to defend my record at various points throughout the whole 20/20 is hindsight bitcoin history of what ended up being a bear market between early 2018 until about April or May 2019.. and we did not know how to label such market until afterwards.... so fucking what?  I am not taking anything back what I said during that time, and all my posts from then stand unedited... and I am not backing off from a single one of them from the time that any of them was posted. Low IQ Bot Copy Pasta. Only a fool would torture through this gibber jabber. Im a huge hypocrite, I make predictions, with estimates and probabilities all the time. It sends my blood pressure through the roof when Slayer and others make predictions here and there bc I want all the attention of the thread 24-7

GayJG, just divest from your other crappy investments and get more net worth invested in the King. Otherwise you will always be bitter and jealous of smarter investors.
 

[JayJuanGee]

Why can't we just enjoy the bull market, which can take many different paths.
As long as I am doubling my fiat equivalent each year, I am more than happy (delighted).
I hope that we don't have to surge, then collapse EVERY freaking time (so far thrice we went down more than 80% in the complete four year cycle).

Well, yeah.. as long as you have been accumulating bitcoin, then historically your returns have ended up playing out quite decently.

According to your forum registration date, you got in around the same time as me, so yeah, you know that in the long run, we can look back to pretty BIG ass returns on our BTC, but surely there has been no guarantee, and many of us who got into BTC in late 2013 or early 2014 may have had a decently long period of time of having our BTC investment in the red (in fiat terms)... but yeah, it averages out pretty well.. and maybe currently we could say that it largely doubled each year (but I don't even think that is the case).. but maybe that is even tough to say, no?  

Especially because it is NOT too likely that we just invested into BTC at one point in time and then stopped doing anything since then.. but let's just make a hypothetical.

Let's say a guy or a gal accumulated BTC or invested around $42k in 2013, which would have been about 60BTC at $700, so then the value would have had to double each year to be (by the way, this exercise is just hypothetical, and I am not saying that 60BTC represents the size of the BTC holdings of any particular person in this thread who got into bitcoin in 2013 with an average cost of around $700 per BTC):

2014 = $84k

2015 = $168k

2016 = $336k

2017 = $672k

2018 = $1.344m

2019 = $2.688m

2020 = $5.376m

Just does not seem sustainable to expect a doubling every year to average out, but maybe a 50% per year could average out, perhaps?

50% per year would look like this for that $42k investment in 2013, which seems more closely lined up with what 60 BTC today would be worth, approximately.  50% per year seems more reasonable, but even that might not be sustainable.. difficult to say, for sure...

2014 = $63k

2015 = $94.5k

2016 = $141.75k

2017 = $212.625k

2018 = $318.94k

2019 = $478.4k

2020 = $717.6k

[Lambie Slayer]

https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-china-dispatches-bleach-trucks-to-spray-down-cities-2020-2

Just getting weirder and weirder out in Communistland. Dont think for one minute that this isnt cosmic punishment for being hostile to Bitcoin. CCP is going down and probably sooner rather than later.

https://twitter.com/howroute/status/1225962215691497472 video of trucks spraying down the city

[Biodom]

By doubling I was simply referring to last year (2019) with a desire to see the trend continuing sans large spikes and drawdowns.

[jojo69]

https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-china-dispatches-bleach-trucks-to-spray-down-cities-2020-2

Just getting weirder and weirder out in Communistland. Dont think for one minute that this isnt cosmic punishment for being hostile to Bitcoin. CCP is going down and probably sooner rather than later.

https://twitter.com/howroute/status/1225962215691497472 video of trucks spraying down the city

good lord

really?

[JSRAW]

[JayJuanGee]

By doubling I was simply referring to last year (2019) with a desire to see the trend continuing sans large spikes and drawdowns.

Agreed.

2019 was a doubling of fiat value; that's for sure.

In another thread, I have already been criticized for somewhat selectively stating that point and also I had stated that so far this year, we are up more than 30% (well currently it is about 36%).  So, yeah overall 2019 was a good performing year, but we also have to kind of put the matter in context of having had started very close to the bottom of the drowntrend that drug nearly to the end of 2018.

I just don't think that we can expect some kind of gradual incline, and even if we look at 2019, it was quite the ride that got us through that whole process, and surely lucky to be up nearly 100% for the calendar year.

Many of us anticipate that BTC is ramping up for an upburst, yet it is still uncertain whether we could expect 100% for 2020 and another 100% for 2021, but we also know that there are quite a few of us (and surely I am inclined in that direction too) who are kind of anticipating that 2020 and 2021 are going to at least average !00% for each of those two years by the time we get to the end of 2021.. which would be a mere $28,700 (/2 = $14,350  /2 = $7,175).  So, yeah the next two years may well be decently performing years, but we have to prepare for extreme volatility - which seems quite likely too. 

I think that you, Biodom, anticipate such likely considerable volatility too - even though you might be just hoping for a more gradual wave sequence that is amongst the lesser likely scenarios.

Surely, we are going to find out.. and surely the next couple of years seem to be quite critical^tm in showing us how closely BTC price is likely to track the stock to flow and 4 year fractal model or if any kind of doubt starts to build regarding whether more appropriate models might apply.

No way am I hostile to the theories that bitcoin's price swings might become less severe into the future with a growing market capitalization - but still we had a decent 78x in the 2015 to 2017 growth period, so even a 1/4 of that level of growth is going to put BTC into quite high territories, even if we were to use the current absolute bottom of $3,124 as our starting point - even though I believe that a $6k-ish bouncing off point would probably be more representative of BTC's bouncing off point.... but a 1/4 the volatility which is a 20x still puts BTC's high at anywhere between $65k and $120k.... and maybe you are wanting to go lower than 1/4 of the volatility.. which seems to erring on the side of almost fantasized conservatism in what are likely to be forces underlying BTC's upcoming price forces.   

So, yeah, it is possible that the upcoming bubble (if it happens) will be less than 1/4 the size of the 2015-2017 bubble, even though we really have not been witnessing evidence of such conservativism, and really we have likely been witnessing evidence that bitcoin is even more bullish and even more frontloaded in the ability to perform beyond such conservative constraints.  I like to be conservative too, and not to count my eggs before they are hatched, but such conservativism, if it plays out, is likely going to justify tweaking our currently most historically conforming price prediction models a quite a bit towards the downside... so we will see, we will see.

I am not going to deny that powerful forces are likely going to try to manipulate such BTC price prediction models down or to make us believe them to NOT be true, but I just have my doubts about if they can be successful, especially if we are looking at 2 years or more for the price movements to potentially play out.... they are going to likely try to manipulate down and overdo it, and what happens is exactly the opposite of what you want, which is an explosion to the upside that is NOT sustainable.

[bitebits]

Gone sideways too long. When moon?

Q3 or Q4 2021 my friend. Annoyingly still some time away.

What's the moon for you? Interesting ...
What are your expectations?

For me?

Moon = Anything above $60,000 I suppose.

I expect a minimum of $40,000 - $50,000 in the next big bull run.

I think we’ll hit $100,000 per coin in late 2021 to early 2022.

"Moon" is the top of the next 4 year fractal.. yet it is too difficult to determine the number at this time, but yeah the more likely range is $50k to $250k... but there are surely chances to NOT fall within the range towards either the downside or the upside.

[...]

I think there are many personal moons: stash x $btc

[Icygreen]

https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-china-dispatches-bleach-trucks-to-spray-down-cities-2020-2

Just getting weirder and weirder out in Communistland. Dont think for one minute that this isnt cosmic punishment for being hostile to Bitcoin. CCP is going down and probably sooner rather than later.

https://twitter.com/howroute/status/1225962215691497472 video of trucks spraying down the city

good lord

really?

Not sure it's actually bleach, might be but I read it was a weak solution of sumthin.
This does not look like the same stuff. Shit's Gettin serial.
https://twitter.com/CoronaVirusUp/status/1225471897116315652?s=19

[VB1001]

https://twitter.com/BitcoinCorePRs/status/1225813077062537218

Good morning guys, BTC 9,760, ready to try 10,000 🚀

#StrongHats

[Hueristic]

And they have plans to fork off unclaimed coins to the (biggest) miners

Are you talking about BSV? I do have unclaimed coins... Should I do something? What is the deadline?

I thought that had already been solved and they were NOT doing that.

It's not that I do have much but there's some people in here that do (i.e. Jimbo) so this is public service information totally pertinent for us Bitcoin holders and, even if "accidentally" and for laziness, BSV "holders" too.

If you have any unclaimed scam coins you should dump them on their scum sucking asses just for GP.

[bitebits]

Very interesting reading.

Bitcoin is like gold only with one unique and differentiating property. It can be transported over a communications channel.
@coinbase
 presents a bullish case for bitcoin's commodity-like value in its latest blog post:

Twitter: https://twitter.com/coindeskdata/status/1225902161843937280

Compared to gold, Bitcoin is significantly more volatile. However, Bitcoin volatility is dampening over the years. According to CoinMetrics, average Bitcoin volatility (180d) has declined compared to the first half of the decade: from 6.4% (2011–2015) down to 3.7% (2015–2020).

Source: https://blog.coinbase.com/digital-gold-scarcity-and-bitcoin-halvings-1d6cc16f3e8d

Most interesting to me is that Coinbase is loudly mentioning Bitcoin again. Previous blog posts refused the mention the word, it was all about ‘crypto’.

[Hueristic]

Very interesting reading.

Bitcoin is like gold only with one unique and differentiating property. It can be transported over a communications channel.
@coinbase
 presents a bullish case for bitcoin's commodity-like value in its latest blog post:

Twitter: https://twitter.com/coindeskdata/status/1225902161843937280

Compared to gold, Bitcoin is significantly more volatile. However, Bitcoin volatility is dampening over the years. According to CoinMetrics, average Bitcoin volatility (180d) has declined compared to the first half of the decade: from 6.4% (2011–2015) down to 3.7% (2015–2020).

Source: https://blog.coinbase.com/digital-gold-scarcity-and-bitcoin-halvings-1d6cc16f3e8d

Most interesting to me is that Coinbase is loudly mentioning Bitcoin again. Previous blog posts refused the mention the word, it was all about ‘crypto’.

Coinbase needs bitcoin, bitcoin does NOT need Coinbase.

[ivomm]

By doubling I was simply referring to last year (2019) with a desire to see the trend continuing sans large spikes and drawdowns.

Agreed.

2019 was a doubling of fiat value; that's for sure.

In another thread, I have already been criticized for somewhat selectively stating that point and also I had stated that so far this year, we are up more than 30% (well currently it is about 36%).  So, yeah overall 2019 was a good performing year, but we also have to kind of put the matter in context of having had started very close to the bottom of the drowntrend that drug nearly to the end of 2018.

I just don't think that we can expect some kind of gradual incline, and even if we look at 2019, it was quite the ride that got us through that whole process, and surely lucky to be up nearly 100% for the calendar year.

Many of us anticipate that BTC is ramping up for an upburst, yet it is still uncertain whether we could expect 100% for 2020 and another 100% for 2021, but we also know that there are quite a few of us (and surely I am inclined in that direction too) who are kind of anticipating that 2020 and 2021 are going to at least average !00% for each of those two years by the time we get to the end of 2021.. which would be a mere $28,700 (/2 = $14,350  /2 = $7,175).  So, yeah the next two years may well be decently performing years, but we have to prepare for extreme volatility - which seems quite likely too. 

I think that you, Biodom, anticipate such likely considerable volatility too - even though you might be just hoping for a more gradual wave sequence that is amongst the lesser likely scenarios.

Surely, we are going to find out.. and surely the next couple of years seem to be quite critical^tm in showing us how closely BTC price is likely to track the stock to flow and 4 year fractal model or if any kind of doubt starts to build regarding whether more appropriate models might apply.

No way am I hostile to the theories that bitcoin's price swings might become less severe into the future with a growing market capitalization - but still we had a decent 78x in the 2015 to 2017 growth period, so even a 1/4 of that level of growth is going to put BTC into quite high territories, even if we were to use the current absolute bottom of $3,124 as our starting point - even though I believe that a $6k-ish bouncing off point would probably be more representative of BTC's bouncing off point.... but a 1/4 the volatility which is a 20x still puts BTC's high at anywhere between $65k and $120k.... and maybe you are wanting to go lower than 1/4 of the volatility.. which seems to erring on the side of almost fantasized conservatism in what are likely to be forces underlying BTC's upcoming price forces.   

So, yeah, it is possible that the upcoming bubble (if it happens) will be less than 1/4 the size of the 2015-2017 bubble, even though we really have not been witnessing evidence of such conservativism, and really we have likely been witnessing evidence that bitcoin is even more bullish and even more frontloaded in the ability to perform beyond such conservative constraints.  I like to be conservative too, and not to count my eggs before they are hatched, but such conservativism, if it plays out, is likely going to justify tweaking our currently most historically conforming price prediction models a quite a bit towards the downside... so we will see, we will see.

I am not going to deny that powerful forces are likely going to try to manipulate such BTC price prediction models down or to make us believe them to NOT be true, but I just have my doubts about if they can be successful, especially if we are looking at 2 years or more for the price movements to potentially play out.... they are going to likely try to manipulate down and overdo it, and what happens is exactly the opposite of what you want, which is an explosion to the upside that is NOT sustainable.

Each scenario must be analyzed, including the most negative one. If we are talking about the top of the bull market in the next 4 years, we have to take into account all the factors that have influenced the price in the last 4 years. The question is which factors will be absent and would affect the peak reduction. The difference from $ 175 to $ 19666 is 112x. 1/4 reduction is 28x. One factor is the liquidity of the most bearish exchange, which participates in the price formation. The other factor is the FOMO mania caused by the media at the end of 2017.

In my opinion, the FOMO effect at the end of 2017 did not increase the liquidity. On the contrary, people went to buy shitcoins and miners because they thought bitcoin was very expensive. So the jump to 20K was something that should have happened, even slightly delayed by the numerous bans in China.

Concerning liquidity, there should be signs of a decrease, expressed in lower percentage peaks than in the previous period. So far, I see no objective factors for such a huge 1/4 drop. We even have a double ahead of growth - in July 2019 and the present. After the halving, if FUD is not successful, this overtaking can only increase.

However, on the one hand, the price of 349K (112x) seems too high and comes close to the price of gold. On the other hand, the way the Bitcoin exchanges operate is very different from that of gold exchanges. In Bitcoin exchanges the volatility is very high for a number of reasons. Jumps of 20-40% in one day are normal, and they are determined by the avalanche elimination of short positions. So, even without a rise in liquidity, these things happen. Of course, this cannot go on forever. At some point, liquidity may start to stall.

For example, at 1/10 reduction, we would have a peak of 35K (11x). To me, this is the absolute minimum, in the absence of extremely bad news/FUD that would permanently damage the market. With a 1/4 reduction we would have a peak of 87K (28x). Perhaps the most likely option is a 1/3-1/2 reduction with a peak between 120K and 180K.

[mindrust]

One more dip is possible.

It is possible that I didn't draw this lines correctly but it looks like it is breaking free:



Small possibility of seeing $8k maybe one more time before the next parabolic to $20k.