Looks like everybody here who properly invested in bitcoin before 2017 have around at least 50 and possibly closer to 100 btc while other late people who started to accumulate after 2017 have something between 5 and 15.
Makes sense since btc is now at x10 of the 2014's ATH.
Being early pays.
*pussies who stare at their monitors but never buy will never get close to these levels
If the latecomers play their cards right they'll have an opportunity to increase their btc stash by %200 - %500. All it takes is shorting the parabolic at the right time.
I agreed with you until you got to the last paragraph.
When you say shorting, you are NOT really saying shorting are you?, but instead you are suggesting closing a long (by selling) and then buying back lower, right?
Of course, I personally don't really agree with playing around very BIG with those kinds of strategies that attempt to time the market and figuring when to get back in, and even though closing longs and buying back lower would be safer than shorting, I suppose that they are similar concepts depending on whether margin is used.
If you use margin, then of course, you would be shorting in the traditional sense of the term, but also risking losing all of the BTC that you accumulated if the price moves against you, meaning continues to go up.
Of course. I never did a leveraged trade in my life. Shorting means selling on spot for me. It was a figure of speech. Probably shouldn't have used it like that.
Just so we are all on the same page, it is better to either say that you are closing a long or that you are selling and hoping to buy back at a lower price. You are not employing more sophisticated (or more complicated) financial tools. At least, not until you get more brave (or greedy... hahahahahaha).
You know how parabolic moves happen. They happen in a very short time scale very fast.
We know how they happen "after the fact," but we cannot really know with any kind of precision while they are happening. Sure, in the last run to $19,666, you would have been o.k. to sell anywhere between $13k and $19,666.... and then buy back anywhere between $3,124 and $7k.... so there ended up being two really big difficulties about knowing when to sell and how much, and then knowing when to buy back and how much.
In 2016/17, there were a lot of people who were thinking like you and many of those people thought that they could see parabolic moves, and ended up selling between $4k and $8k, and that might not have worked out too well for them, if they kept watching what happened after that, and then trying to buy back, and not really being able to... because in the summer/fall of 2018 there were about 5 or 6 revisits to $6k before she finally broke below $6k.
So, yeah, sometimes afterwards, you can really see it, but if you are trying to see it while it is happening, you might see it too early, because there are a whole hell of a lot of fake outs along the way both in terms of when the top is over and then where the buying back correction is going to end.. including the fact that some of the buying correction might not end up going much if any lower than the points that you ended up selling.
It would be dumb not to take action against a movement like this.
It is only "dumb" when you are looking at the matter in retrospect. I am not telling you what to do because you can do whatever the fuck you want, but there are a lot of people who have done hell-a-well in bitcoin through largely ONLY applying BTC accumulation strategies, and when they sell BTC, they are actually selling for good rather than hoping to buy back lower... in other words, they have already gone up a couple of cycles, so whatever portion of their BTC that they are shaving off is merely just to buy whatever they want, whether it is dental implants or a castle or hookers, lambos and blow or some other item(s), and they might end up selling a large chunk of their BTC at certain points, such as 15% or 25% of their stash, but at the same time feeling that they still have a decent stake and are willing to let the remaining 75% to 85% just ride for a few more years.. and maybe cashing out a small amount more if they need it before the next exponential rise.
So if you have been through a couple of bubbles and your average purchase price is around $100, then you might not care too much if you sell some at $4k or at $10k... even if you might have sold a bit already at $17k.
You also should never sell if it is going up slowly. (unless you don't need to hodl anymore lol)
Seems to me that if you let your BTC accumulation ride for long enough, it might not matter so much anymore at what point you shave off some profits. But, yeah, of course, we see some patterns that are likely to repeat, which is gradual price rises that become steeper and steeper and steeper, and at some point it becomes clear that a blow off top is coming... but it still remains unclear regarding how certain is that blow off top.. you might get lucky, and you might not.... you feeling lucky, punk..?
(#no homo)I remain leery of any strategy that tries to go too hard towards locking in supposedly "sure" profits that involves playing around with very much of the BTC stash. Yeah, maybe playing around with a bit of the stash (such as 25%), but I would be quite nervous if I were to sell off large amounts of my BTC stash waiting when to buy back in, and I personally would rather just ride the price down while HODLing and only shave off small portions of my stash in order to use those proceeds to buy back.... There just have been too many times, when the price is going up to be tempted into believing that the top is near or soon and it ends up being no fucking where near to the top or soon. I personally sleep better as a mostly HODLer, and I suppose that has to do with the fact that I also already have money in fiat related investments, too, even though you might believe that it is a bad practice to end up riding the BTC price down through a correction that ends up being in the 85% territory (retrospectively, finding that out.. even though you are trying to suggest that it is more clear than it likely is regarding when the BTC prices are going to go down and how far).
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