Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[xhomerx10]

Barrel of oil equivalent = 6.1178632×10⁹ J
Antminer S17+ 70TH/s rated @ 40J/TH


 6.1178632×10⁹ J/bbl x 600 bbl = 3,670,717,926,540 J

 3670717926540 J / 40J/TH = 91,767,948,163.5 TH

 How many bitcoin can I mine in 91,767,948,163.5 TH?

 The probability that any give hash will lead to a valid block is 1/(2³²D), where D is difficulty
 currently D = 13,912,524,048,946

 So, 91,767,948,163.5x10¹²H x 1/(2³²13,912,524,048,946)/Block
 
 = 1.5357666489943172022545931579071 Blocks (currently 12.5BTC/Block)

 = 19.197083112428965028182414473839 BTC

 Wow.  I thought it would have been much more.  
 We're killing the planet!!

We're about to mine BTC900/day so that's 46.8821223895886 barrels per day, that's probably less than heating costs for one bank

Ummm?

It looks like about 390 barrels per block if the above numbers are correct. Even after the halving, this won't change unless the difficulty goes up. If we mined on oil, that would be 56,160 barrels per day.

I think the vast majority of bitcoin is mined on cheap renewable energy like hydro or thermal though.

It's mined on electricity.

 Thank god for the law of conservation of energy.  (or at least thank Gabrielle Emilie Le Tonnelier de Breteuil)

right, but not all of oil heat producing (thermal) energy is being converted to electricity.
Some is lost as heat.

 Sure, the efficiency of an oil fired generating station is in the neighborhood of 60%.  

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[willope]

Sooo, anyone knows on whitch platform can I buy WTI oil?

You cant, it's a futures contract. If you buy now, you physically need to go and get the oil. That's why the crash happened and people were closing positions.

The next futures that expires trades at around 20$ currently, but this freefall will probably affect that one too. Whoever is currently holding an oil futures contract is playing a dangerous game.

It may be dangerous, but it would be fun to buy at least a few futures at negative price so one day I could tell my grandchildren that I was there, I was part of the game.

I wonder how much you can buy of that oil at negative rates with say $10 (yeah, a solid positive ten fucking bucks!).

I assume it's not so much about how many you can buy. More like how many you'll have to pay to sell them if the price won't recover. The more you buy, more risk of losing money.
I have to add that I'm not an amateur trader but this is the way I understand it.

[DaRude]

I was planning on filling all my petrol cans today to take advantage of the low petrol prices, glad I didn't have time. It's gonna be interesting to se what the petrol prices will be the coming days.

Nothing.
Petrol prices are based on Jun future that's now trading at 22 USD.
Plus taxes and other non-oli related costs reduce price volatility.
So don't expect many nice surprises here.

I don't really understand any of this. Who, if anyone, can buy oil at those extremely low and even negative prices? What does it mean?

One oil future contract obligates the buyer/holder to buy 1000 barrels of oil for delivery during the month of May. That is, whoever holds it at the end of the trading period.

The oil producer creates the contracts and people trade them. The producer might have written the contract at $20 per barrel last month to lock in the price. Since then, the contracts have been traded around, the producer already pocketed the $20 per barrel though.

The person holding the contract today, had to pay someone to unload it (negative price) because they don't have the ability to take delivery. The producers doesn't care who takes delivery, they already got paid when they wrote the contract. I guess they could have bought their own contracts and delivered to themselves at a profit but that would require them to shut down production which is expensive.

The traders effectively paid someone $40,000 per 1000 barrel contract to get it off their account. Not including whatever they lost on the way down.

Yep that ^ each contract is for 1000 barrels. You buy it, and you have to take delivery of it in May or be in default
https://www.theice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures

[bkbirge]

So driving my gas guzzling supercar at 130mph is a patriotic duty?

Next up, a gov't subsidy check so I can put a 440hp engine in my '78 Nova. But, being the gov't, they'll disallow any necessary transmission upgrades.

[xhomerx10]

Barrel of oil equivalent = 6.1178632×10⁹ J
Antminer S17+ 70TH/s rated @ 40J/TH


 6.1178632×10⁹ J/bbl x 600 bbl = 3,670,717,926,540 J

 3670717926540 J / 40J/TH = 91,767,948,163.5 TH

 How many bitcoin can I mine in 91,767,948,163.5 TH?

 The probability that any give hash will lead to a valid block is 1/(2³²D), where D is difficulty
 currently D = 13,912,524,048,946

 So, 91,767,948,163.5x10¹²H x 1/(2³²13,912,524,048,946)/Block
 
 = 1.5357666489943172022545931579071 Blocks (currently 12.5BTC/Block)

 = 19.197083112428965028182414473839 BTC

 Wow.  I thought it would have been much more.  
 We're killing the planet!!

We're about to mine BTC900/day so that's 46.8821223895886 barrels per day, that's probably less than heating costs for one bank

 The energy use is based on the difficulty.   With the change in the block reward, the energy requirement will stay the same.
 600 barrels gave us ~1.54 blocks so @ 144 blocks per day we'll be using 56,258.5 barrels of oil per day.

[jojo69]

probably simulate all that analog gear with a raspberry pi now. well except for the analog "sound" perhaps.

Fairlight CMI - Computer Musical Instrument. Not much of that 'analog' sound.

that whole wall on the right is Elektor Formant modules, nary a 1 or 0 in sight

I think you guys are talking about two different videos, the Analog Session vs Hancock

Oh. That might explain it.
Sorry.

yup, carry on

[jojo69]

I was planning on filling all my petrol cans today to take advantage of the low petrol prices, glad I didn't have time. It's gonna be interesting to se what the petrol prices will be the coming days.

I can say with some certainty that these particular savings will not be trickling down

[Toxic2040]

the noon wall report at 1:49pm

I, along with everyone else have just been observing the historic selloff of oil futures. If ever the term 'markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent' it would be in the middle of something like this. A State sponsored price war.

------

bitcoin

I dont have much in this report honestly. Too much noise. All I can tell you is either you believe in bitcoin and the bright future it brings or you dont.


Locally bitcoin has broken downwards through $6.9k and is currently looking for support on the 0.618 short fib.
1h


Closing below the 0.5 fib probably indicates that the downtrend will continue over the next couple of days until a new support level is discovered.  #dyor
4h

#stronghands

[vapourminer]

probably simulate all that analog gear with a raspberry pi now. well except for the analog "sound" perhaps.

Fairlight CMI - Computer Musical Instrument. Not much of that 'analog' sound.

that whole wall on the right is Elektor Formant modules, nary a 1 or 0 in sight

I think you guys are talking about two different videos, the Analog Session vs Hancock

Oh. That might explain it.
Sorry.

well with my memory im not even sure myself now, i had time so saw a few that were posted by WO peeps. and of course clicking on typical WO links can lead to blindness or worse so i go slow.

[hodl_2015]

So driving my gas guzzling supercar at 130mph is a patriotic duty?

random thoughts:
-Turns out people still want electric cars if oil was free.
-Trump was right, clean coal beats oil.
-The US has fought wars to keep oil traded in dollars, so countries keep dollars as a reserve currency so they can buy oil. How does that work when you don't actually need to pay for oil?
-Banks will have to operate oil wells that default, since banks won't be able to sell the wells to anyone else.

[Searing]

So BTC/Crypto is still following the stock market up down and sideways..hardly encouraging...especially with the BTC having https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/bitcoin-clock/ only 20

days away.

This whole world from finance to crypto and pandemic is beyond black swan event(s) it seems.

Well, interesting as hell if you like 'horror' movies I guess. I wonder what the next month of calamities will entail?

So BTC/Crypto 'decouple' from the stock market already, streak marks on my underwear are becoming a common event damn it!

[bkbirge]

Interesting reddit on an analysis of all these "grassroots" protests to open the Govt. Hint: It's gun nut astroturf...

https://www.reddit.com/r/maryland/comments/g3niq3/i_simply_cannot_believe_that_people_are/fnstpyl/

Like-minded oppressed peoples are likely to communicate and coordinate? Who woulda thunk it?

Sorry, you lost all credibility with the use of the term 'gun nut'.

I mean, if it walks and talks like a duck...
https://news.yahoo.com/us-lockdown-facebook-groups-opposing-092805078.html

The Dorr brothers manage a slew of pro-gun groups across a wide range of states, from Iowa to Minnesota to New York, and seek primarily to discredit organizations such as the National Rifle Association as being too compromising on gun safety.

[jojo69]

can somebody assure me that Hairy is OK?

and Bob, can you please check in just a little more frequently?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Bitcoin has never, ever dumped over 100% in one day. What has you say?

[Biodom]

Bitcoin has never, ever dumped over 100% in one day. What has you say?

I say that I did not know that it was possible.

In other developments:
Interesting stuff about education price conundrum from a NYU professor. Sobering thoughts.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nyu-marketing-pro-expects-tremendous-price-pressure-on-us-colleges-after-coronavirus-201541903.html

^^ btc is unaffected by this yet.

[Elwar]

Are there any bitcoin charts priced in oil out there?

Moon?

[Last of the V8s]

jojo pm

[Toxic2040]

can somebody assure me that Hairy is OK?

and Bob, can you please check in just a little more frequently?

HM is OK...I assure you.

Bawb is high a kite and fine as well..its 420...relax...if possible. Cut the man some slack.   

[vapourminer]

I wonder what the next month of calamities will entail?

[Millionero]

So driving my gas guzzling supercar at 130mph is a patriotic duty?

Next up, a gov't subsidy check so I can put a 440hp engine in my '78 Nova. But, being the gov't, they'll disallow any necessary transmission upgrades.

What's a busted differential between friends?