Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ShroomsKit]

So we are still going down because Gox moved some coins and an idiot reporter pulled some facts out of her ass? That's all it takes?
Rough times ahead.

[BitcoinAshley]

So we are still going down because Gox moved some coins and an idiot reported pulled some facts out of her ass? That's all it takes?
Rough times ahead.

Price slowly approaching my buy orders... 

[JorgeStolfi]

I have not seen evidence of fake traffic at Huobi, but I suspect that there may be fake traffic at OKCoin.

First, traffic at OKCoin slows down at night, but does not stop completely like at Huobi; there is a steady backgrount traffic 24/7.

Second, most Huobi transactions occur randomly at the two ends of the current spread, as one would expect from buyers and sellers independently moving to meet each other's position; whereas many of those at OKCoin seem to occur in at random places in the middle of the real spread, as if the buyer and seller had a rendez-vous there.

OKCoin also seems to have an excess of small transactions.  (I should make a histogram to confirm that.)

Here is a plot of a few minutes's worth of transactions.  Each dot is a transaction (except that transactions with same timestamp and price may hide each other).  Dot size is proportional to BTC volume.


Am I seeing things?

[keewee]

Am I seeing things?

Looks a bit like a dinosaur

[JorgeStolfi]

There was 4,500 new BTT registrations yesterday. We just beat the March 7 high of 2,200. To put that into perspective BTT usually gets 500-700 registrations per day.

The jump in users suggest an interest in Bitcoin.

Dinosaurs are always popular with kids.  They may even trump cute puppies. 

[keewee]

There was 4,500 new BTT registrations yesterday. We just beat the March 7 high of 2,200. To put that into perspective BTT usually gets 500-700 registrations per day.

The jump in users suggest an interest in Bitcoin.

Dinosaurs are always popular with kids.  They may even trump cute puppies.  

In my supermarket, in the aisle that sells nappies, formula, kids snacks etc. there is a sign indicating these items and at the bottom of the list it says "Dinosaurs-->". Now that's good marketing  

edit: haven't found one yet...

[JorgeStolfi]

Is there a way to estimate, from the blockchain or other sources, the number and size of bitcoin transactions that are payments for goods and services, rather than due to speculation, investment, hot/cold storage transfers, etc?

[keewee]

Is there a way to estimate, from the blockchain or other sources, the number and size of bitcoin transactions that are payments for goods and services, rather than due to speculation, investment, hot/cold storage transfers, etc?

I'm not sure you can separate the transactions that way unless you can identify which addresses belong to who. A certain amount of information can be deduced by searching for polls in the forums. I found this one which got a few votes, although it says nothing about the size of the transactions. No doubt some of the spending was for goods and services related to mining: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=196955.0;viewResults

[JayJuanGee]

I have not seen evidence of fake traffic at Huobi, but I suspect that there may be fake traffic at OKCoin.

First, traffic at OKCoin slows down at night, but does not stop completely like at Huobi; there is a steady backgrount traffic 24/7.

Second, most Huobi transactions occur randomly at the two ends of the current spread, as one would expect from buyers and sellers independently moving to meet each other's position; whereas many of those at OKCoin seem to occur in at random places in the middle of the real spread, as if the buyer and seller had a rendez-vous there.

OKCoin also seems to have an excess of small transactions.  (I should make a histogram to confirm that.)

Here is a plot of a few minutes's worth of transactions.  Each dot is a transaction (except that transactions with same timestamp and price may hide each other).  Dot size is proportional to BTC volume.


Am I seeing things?

I'm seeing dinosaurs, too.....   or maybe train cars being assembled in the form of a carrousel?  Kind of like a circus.

I do NOT claim to know very much about how one exchange may differ from another or the way that a bot may work based on the way it interfaces with the exchange.  However, couldn't some of the explanation of differences be based on how bots may need to be programmed differently based on the exchange rules, fees and maybe based on times of greater or lesser volatility?  

But, yes, I can understand why you may consider certain patterns to infer that the trades may NOT really be taking place b/c they do NOT make sense to be occurring under those circumstances... even if it were due to the programing parameters of bots... that are paying nearly zero fees.

[Wary]

If the ratio of moneyflows to market price does not change, the cycles will continue unabated.  Their remarkable regularity is likely to result in attempts to front-run the cycle, and hence accelerate it.  That may also tend to blunt the extremes a bit, smoothing them over a diversity of participants.  Persistently retaining value will be likely to incentivize greater moneyflows, however, now that the financial world has actually caught wind of crypto.

Maybe that's what is happening now. According to the pattern, there must be a rise now, so whales are buying. But they are doing it too soon, there is no real grassroot push yet, so the price slides back.  

[billyjoeallen]

If the ratio of moneyflows to market price does not change, the cycles will continue unabated.  Their remarkable regularity is likely to result in attempts to front-run the cycle, and hence accelerate it.  That may also tend to blunt the extremes a bit, smoothing them over a diversity of participants.  Persistently retaining value will be likely to incentivize greater moneyflows, however, now that the financial world has actually caught wind of crypto.

Maybe that's what is happening now. According to the pattern, there must be a rise now, so whales are buying. But they are doing it too soon, there is no real grassroot push yet, so the price slides back.  

That's exactly what's happening now and anyone not front-running the cycles is just giving money away. For example, the weekend dip is an intentional attempt to incite panic and scoop up cheap coins. this weekend was moderately successful, but the probability that the price will recover above $650 in the next 24 hours is significantly higher than 50/50. I wouldn't be surprised if it reaches $670 tomorrow.

Yer not gonna see a grassroots push until after we hit ~$750 again. It doesn't matter. There's 100,000 whales on Wall Street and it only takes about one percent of them to see the advantage of getting into crypto at this stage.

[lumierre]

There was 4,500 new BTT registrations yesterday. We just beat the March 7 high of 2,200. To put that into perspective BTT usually gets 500-700 registrations per day.

The jump in users suggest an interest in Bitcoin. New market players will enter. Fundamentals override technicals again. Value BTC with history of userbase rather than price history because it is the number of users who drive the price up in the first place. It is a very good indicator because new users take time to learn about Bitcoin before investing thus not pumping up the price immediately. It also gives us a measurement of interest in Bitcoin.

BTT = Bitcointalk?

Yes, please clarify what BTT is.  

Regarding bitcointalk.org, if you click on the "MEMBERS" link, you'll see there are currently 271,709 members (a lot of sock-puppet/troll accounts, but still).  Is there a way to get the stats on membership vs time?  Is anyone tracking this?  It would be interesting to plot this curve....

Yes, Bitcointalk. You can see it for yourself on the main page. Scroll down to the bottom.

[tarmi]

There's 100,000 whales on Wall Street and it only takes about one percent of them to see the advantage of getting into crypto at this stage.

will someobdy give them a call finally and tell them about this incredible weekend buy opportunity?  

[mah87]

There's 100,000 whales on Wall Street and it only takes about one percent of them to see the advantage of getting into crypto at this stage.

will someobdy give them a call finally and tell them about this incredible weekend buy opportunity?  

stop dreaming this is crashing

[dave3k]

There's 100,000 whales on Wall Street and it only takes about one percent of them to see the advantage of getting into crypto at this stage.

will someobdy give them a call finally and tell them about this incredible weekend buy opportunity?  

Done!

[tarmi]

There's 100,000 whales on Wall Street and it only takes about one percent of them to see the advantage of getting into crypto at this stage.

will someobdy give them a call finally and tell them about this incredible weekend buy opportunity?  

Done!

wrong number I guess, because the price is still going down.

[TERA]

A scary mtgox bitstamp parallel

[Hawkix]

A scary mtgox bitstamp parallel

LOL, someone really desperately need to buy back in low, right?

[UnDerDoG81]

Hmm I dont know what everybody is talking about? I just woke up and stamp is still @620 just like 8 hrs ago?

[Searing]

Hmm I dont know what everybody is talking about? I just woke up and stamp is still @620 just like 8 hrs ago?

it took a little trip about town when you were asleep (the ways of bitcoin are mysterious to me)

Searing