Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

I get the sense that he is a 24 year old that did NOT realize that he was getting in over his head, and the government was setting him up b/c of his role in bitcoin.  From what little I know about Shrem, I doubt that he had criminal intentions.

We should not get ahead of the tribunals, but have you read the document?
http://www.justice.gov/usao/nys/pressreleases/January14/SchremFaiellaChargesPR/Faiella,%20Robert%20M.%20and%20Charlie%20Shrem%20Complaint.pdf
(Check the details of Count Four, specifically.)

The issue is not whether Shrem is innocent or not, but what is sensible policy for a Foundation or other people who wish for bitcoin to succeed.  Like in the case of MtGOX, it seems that people cannot separate personal friendships from the promotion of bitcoin; almost if "bitcoin" was a specific group of people, rather than a computing/economics project.

[billyjoeallen]

 

I understand that it can be difficult to make changes in law or society - especially, the larger the community.  Don't get me wrong, I do NOT appreciate having certain rule imposed upon me; however, I try to find ways in which I can accept and live in harmony without proclaiming that the government is some alien entity that is separated from my human interests.  Personally, if I were to pick one thing that irritates me the most about government is NOT the concept of taxes, but instead it is the fact that money has too much influenced government and those with a lot of money are NOT paying their fair share of taxes.  Accordingly, regular people have to pay more taxes b/c of the money corruption  that has infiltrated into the most recent government(s)... worse in the past 20 years or so.

I don't agree to disagree when the issue at hand is whether or not I am a slave. This isn't hyperbole. I can't leave the country without permission and even if I am allowed to leave, I still must file U.S. tax returns for ten years. I can't vote to change the system. There is no option on the ballot to leave the elected posts empty for the next term. Democracy is not consent of the governed anyway; it is consent of the majority or more accurately the plurality.

Slavery won't go away because it is immoral. It will go away because it is economically obsolete. There's just not much profit in it anymore and it is becoming less profitable by the day.

I am sad that you live in a state of mind that you feel that you are being forced.  Yes, I agree with the government in A LOT of ways; however, mentally, I recognize the fact that I live in a community of people.  The world is NOT just about me, and in this community of people, a variety of compromises have been made.  Some of the compromises are pure bullshit... Well, maybe a lot of them are pure bullshit that are in place to oppress people.  I recognize the law as a weapon of the rich to oppress the poor - however, it seems that my mentality is different from yours b/c I am NOT going to expend all of my energies bitching and moaning about how unfair it is and suggesting that the only solution is to throw out the baby and the bathwater by some kind of ousting of government.  That is too outrageous b/c there are a lot of people in the community, besides me.   

Personally, I believe that if there were ways to remove money influence in politics, and we were able to elect people to serve the interests of the people as a whole, rather than the rich, then we would move a long way towards a better society. 

If you and I sat down for a beer, I am sure that there would be a lot that we would agree upon, but I am NOT going to agree that the starting place is to shut down government (tomorrow or next week).  Change needs to be more incremental and focused, if such change is going to be meaningful and a product of society rather than a product of the will of only a few.

How can you possibly infer that opposition to monopoly governance equates to opposition to community? That's the most baffling non sequitur I can imagine. If you think rule of law is essential (and it is) then you cannot let the law be subverted by allowing one entity only to interpret and enforce that law, because then you effectively have rule of man and not rule of law. Of course politicians are going to be bribed and the wealthy are going to bend the State to their will. They have the incentive to do so. No reform is possible with the existing incentive structure in place. I'm not advocating an armed insurrection. That would be futile. I am advocating participation in the system to the least amount possible until in crumbles under its own weight. 

[HairyMaclairy]

Jay

If someone tells you they are going to buy drugs with bitcoin then you have a legal duty not to sell bitcoin to them.   Just like you have a legal duty not to sell someone a pillow if they tell you they are going to use it to asphyxiate their mother in law. And no this is not a govt conspiracy against pillow dealers.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accessory_(legal_term)

Thatt you may consider this to be an unreasonable intrusion of the government into your affairs is not particularly relevant.

[JorgeStolfi]

yes i can even wire these functions up to big red buttons you can physically push and pull, for maximum lolz
the panic button would split all the bitcoins we collected to a high number of totally anonymous wallets no one can trace.

Have adam code DDOS machines. You'll need those at some point, trust me.

 

[JorgeStolfi]

From http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zz21j/mtgox_2014_hack_database_revealed_live_from_mark/, presumably derived from the database leak:

Balance SUM for ALL USERS by currency.    
[][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][]    
Currency: AUD     Balance:     924,124.65121    
Currency: BTC     Balance:     951,116.21905382  <-- That fat fuck has been lying!!    
Currency: CAD     Balance:     320,184.36558    
Currency: CHF     Balance:      99,487.07308    
Currency: CNY     Balance:     297,775.78994    
Currency: DKK     Balance:     112,264.56207    
Currency: EUR     Balance:   5,634,625.59531    
Currency: GBP     Balance:     921,892.96793    
Currency: HKD     Balance:     740,519.14894    
Currency: JPY     Balance: 384,885,150.13700    
Currency: NOK     Balance:      91,346.00305    
Currency: NZD     Balance:      58,224.95320    
Currency: PLN     Balance:   1,645,194.67364    
Currency: RUB     Balance:     551,162.54477    
Currency: SEK     Balance:      15,335.84383    
Currency: SGD     Balance:      43,193.59706    
Currency: THB     Balance:     666,464.33497    
Currency: USD     Balance:  30,611,805.67481    
[][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][]    

Total BTC Deposits:  19,065,241.307202      
Total BTC Withdrawl: 18,563,466.149383    
------------------------------------    
BTC Difference:         501,775.157819    

[][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][]    

Note that, if this is legit, it does not show what MtGOX had, but what it owed to its customers at the time the database snapshot was taken. (Is this right?)

EDIT: markup

[joesmoe2012]

It shows that they should've had Currency: BTC     Balance:     951,116.21905382

So 950k btc.

[aminorex]

I'm not advocating an armed insurrection. That would be futile.

Why? Moral precepts, first-order feasibility, or long-term sustainability?

The first would be insurmountable.  The second may be surmountable with surprising ease, by innovative technique.  The third is inescapably challenging.

I am advocating participation in the system to the least amount possible until in crumbles under its own weight. 

That may be no less futile, and all the challenges of the third rationale continue to apply.

[HairyMaclairy]

It shows that they should've had Currency: BTC     Balance:     951,116.21905382

So 950k btc.

Not necessarily just clients as Mt Gox's holdings and Mr Karpeles' holdings may be represented in the accounting system as "users". 

It shows what their accounting system says they should have had. Which accounting system may or may not have any connection to reality.  

[aminorex]

If my understanding of events is correct, the fact that such brutal charges can be credibly pressed against someone diligently seeking to be fully compliant with existing law is a much more serious indictment of the government than of Shrem.  My understanding of events is fragmentary and remote, however.

[aminorex]

Ask him to confirm that he's not involved in Bitcoin. If he can't, that's proof positive.

I had not even heard of bitcom until Dorian said he had a free lunch from it.  I have no more involvement with it now; I leave that to others.  Unless...sushi.

[MelMan2002]

How long has that 10k (fake?) wall been up on bitfinex?

[686f646c]

mark traded on his site
TIBANNE_LIMITED_HK traded on mtgox from aug-2011 to oct-2012 according to the trade data leaked
TIBANNE_LIMITED_HK purchased 83584.3166449 btc and sold 377646.65208 USD worth of btc in dec 2011 alone

[threecats]

How long has that 10k (fake?) wall been up on bitfinex?

not long i think. i just saw it. hope it's not the same guy from last week...

[joesmoe2012]

mark traded on his site
TIBANNE_LIMITED_HK traded on mtgox from aug-2011 to oct-2012 according to the trade data leaked
TIBANNE_LIMITED_HK purchased 83584.3166449 btc and sold 377646.65208 USD worth of btc in dec 2011 alone

Interesting, I thought he specifically said he didn't.

[billyjoeallen]

I'm not advocating an armed insurrection. That would be futile.

Why? Moral precepts, first-order feasibility, or long-term sustainability?

The first would be insurmountable.  The second may be surmountable with surprising ease, by innovative technique.  The third is inescapably challenging.

It's just poor strategy to fight your enemy with his own preferred weapons. It's simply unnecessary anyway. The national governments of the world are doing a marvelous job destroying themselves. All we have to do it get out of the way.

I am advocating participation in the system to the least amount possible until in crumbles under its own weight. 

That may be no less futile, and all the challenges of the third rationale continue to apply.

Obviously it's futile, but that makes it no less worthy of an objective. On a long enough timeline, the survival rate of everyone turns to zero. I resist being ruled because it's in my nature to do so. That's simply what men do.

[aminorex]

I think the two classes of transactions can be distinguished in theory. Class A ( "payment for goods and services using bitcoin") is transfer of bitcoin from a customer's address to an address belonging to someone who sells goods and services unrelated to crypto-coins, in exchange for said goods and services being provided to the customer. 

Class B is pretty much everything else, such as transfer to/from a bitcoin exchange's wallet, transfers between people or companies in exchange of cash or other coins, etc.

If you wish to do this to derive a minimally impeachable kernels for gross product and velocity, you should beware that the result may be deceiving unless you perform a comparable factoring of fiat economies.  Financial services are a large component of the latter.

For a crude first approximation, take xns in multiples of .1 or .25 btc as class B and the remainder as A.  Improve by sampling each and determining classification error rates using known addresses with i.i.d. assumptions.

[threecats]

How long has that 10k (fake?) wall been up on bitfinex?

not long i think. i just saw it. hope it's not the same guy from last week...

She flashed the same 2 x 5k BTC sell orders at 633 and 633.33 yesterday. She also flashed like that in the mid 500s, I think 560 and 563. Now she's at 659.

what do you suppose the strategy is?

[FNG]

HUOBI starting to catch up.

Upward movement across the board starting soon imo.  

[JorgeStolfi]

If you wish to do this to derive a minimally impeachable kernels for gross product and velocity, you should beware that the result may be deceiving unless you perform a comparable factoring of fiat economies.  Financial services are a large component of the latter.

I would be happy with a gross estimate of ClassA:ClassB split.

My feeling is that classB (non-commerce) has grown a lot since the price started to rally above the 20$ level, when it became attractive to day-trader types.  On the other hand, ClassA may have shrunk: because the higher price means less BTC are needed to pay the same amount, and because the use of BTC for drugs and other illegal trade probably decreased a lot after the Silk Road bust and all that.

Today 90% of the trade volume at the exchanges is in China, where the use of bitcoin in commerce must be very small.  But of course trade volume does not translate into blockchain transactions, so the question remains...