Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitcoinBunny]

I think we may have hit the bottom. Usually the lows don't last very long as people buy in again.

[aesma]

Damn we're poor.

So far I had judged a possible bottom well I guess, my lower buy order was 23000, the next lower potential step was 22000 were I had no order...

[death_wish]

So...  It came within what, it looks like about 2% above third liquidation while I was passed out as a form of restless restfulness.  Much below my previous liquidation line at $23,201.46.

Just sold 0.05 BTC.  Pushed liquidation price down to about $22,080.  No choice with margin account health around 1.5%; last time I cut it this close (and I was at the computer fully functional), it was the first liquidation.  Another liquidation would dump more, with penalty.  (Not much more to dump, at this point.)

I chose the name for this forum account very well.

Congratulations to everyone who is buying BTC at these prices.

Ok, congrats, we've got a new mindrust!  

I am proud to say that I still have never voluntarily traded Bitcoin for dollars or other central bank shitcoins, in the usual form of “SELL” to exit BTC.  (Spent BTC in fiat-denominated transactions for goods and services—yes.  Traded BTC for alts, ultimately with net profit in BTC—yes.  Sold BTC for small amounts of fiat to pay little expenses—yes.  Sold BTC for fiat to hold the fiat instead of BTC, NO.)

That is cold comfort when I did something foolish and out of character, which trapped me and later caused me to lose almost all of my BTC.  But at least, I can look at myself in the mirror:  I am not mindrust!  I never have said, and never will say, “Oh, no, it’s going to zero!  I can’t take the risk!  Panic!  SELL!”

That sale hurt like pulling my own teeth.  But if I had not done it, then about two hours ago, while I was unconscious (not really sleeping), a liquidator bot would have sold more at a lower price.  With penalty.  I would have resumed consciousness with significantly less than 0.1 BTC remaining.

I am now struggling not to be crushed below 0.1 BTC.  This is freaking pathetic.  Only a day ago, I was still grieving at having been crushed significantly below 1.0 BTC.  (While standing like a deer in the headlights, so...)

NEWBIES, DON’T USE MARGIN!


P.S., somac., is this at least beginning to look like a bounce now?  Maybe?  (Or only if it doesn’t die off in a sad-looking wick at the top of this hour.....)

[jojo69]

unfortunately 2nd mortgage on a cardboard box under a bridge doesnt fetch much nowadays.

[empowering]

This is only monday.


Long week ahead.

[tadamichi]

I think people who use margin, should also consider the macro situation(stagflation, printer decides next events). So many people in the whole sector get liquidated, because they can’t separate when it’s time for margin. Now was the time to wait for the bottom and get a nice spot buy, i literally saved cash since weeks for this.

When I first ran into trouble, a friend that I told started out with a friendlier, more polite version of, “Are you freaking crazy!?”  He then proceeded to list things that could go wrong:  Everything from surprise political news dumping the market, to Covid-tier black swans, to flash crashes, to... it was a long list.

I knew that he was right, but I was already trapped to the point that I had been adding collateral until all my BTC was in that account.  (I started by risking only a small proportion, which I could and should have written off as a loss.)

Thats unfortunate, however youre one of the smartest people i saw on this forum, im sure you will build back up. And im sure you know what to do in the future, so i wont mention it. Were all down sometimes, what matters is how we deal with it and build back up.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

[Torque]

My latest activity:

1. Read thread

2. Log in, just to put the latest troll acct on /ignore

3. Any acct that gives that troll acct kudos, pats, merits, or "you're awesome" bs also goes on /ignore

4. Log out

It's getting tedious now. May have to ghost this forum for a few months.

[OgNasty]

Looks like we got some capitulation today.  Volumes are spiking up to near the Do Kwon disaster now and it appears the worst is behind us (for now).  The dead cat bounce to $24K doesn't appear to be holding, so I expect we'll do some testing of these new recent lows.  With Binance resuming withdrawals though, it seems like today's low may finally be in after a night of crypto being ravaged.  Stocks are taking a hit as well, so it begs the question of if the Fed will continue raising rates and winding down their balance sheet.  Unless they're pivoting to a new strategy, I expect we'll hear some news about backing off their plans this week.  After living through the 2008-2012 period, I expect billions of dollars in stimulus to be announced anytime the market shows disapproval of the Government's actions.  In this case though, we may need Fed action as the government appears to be backed into a corner.

[death_wish]

unfortunately 2nd mortgage on a cardboard box under a bridge doesnt fetch much nowadays.

I have used the example of home purchase mortgages (not even second mortgages) to explain margin to a newbie.  It is a good didactic analogy to something familiar:  Many prospective BTC buyers have real-world experience buying houses with purchase money mortgages!

In the abstract, the essential concept is identical:  You buy a non-fungible token called a “house”.  You typically provide a downpayment that results in 5x leverage:  You are buying 5x more than you could have bought for cash, with the purchased asset being used as collateral.  (I did a much better job of explaining this before...)  The lender’s terms and conditions allow it to foreclose on the collateral in various conditions—inevitably including:  If the fair-market value of the collateral falls too low for the lender to recover on defaulted debt.  (Check your home mortgage terms, if you have one.)

But there is a major difference in lending terms.  Imagine that a volatile market for “house” could cause a liquidator bot to foreclose instantaneously and dump you on the street, if a price oracle for “house” dips even one microdollar below a certain price for even one microsecond.  That is a cryptocurrency margin account.  It is even worse than a traditional margin account, where you get an urgent call from your broker saying, “Send more money, or cover—right now—or else.”

As a practical matter, although they are oftentimes ruthless and underhanded, banks who write home mortgage loans usually try to avoid foreclosure.  Home foreclosure is slow, costly, sometimes lossy—a salvaging operation, usually undesirable from a bottom-line perspective.  Cryptocurrency exchanges have a perverse incentive to try to increase liquidations.  I am unsurprised that I have received email spam from exchanges, offering incentives to start margin trading.

The market for your house is also probably at least a little bit less volatile than BTC.

So as for a purchase money mortgage.  A second mortgage is a way of increasing leverage on your “house” (i.e., cardboard box if you are a n00b margin trader).  A non-purchase-money mortgage on a house that you hold free and clear is like borrowing against BTC collateral to buy other things.  That is how I myself took my first steps down the garden path here:  The brilliant idea, “Don’t sell your BTC.  Borrow against it!”  (Originally starting with a small proportion of my BTC—something that I could afford to lose.)

That’s not mortgaging:  It is renting out, and it does not incur debt.  Accordingly, it is much safer than margin BTC—and if my recent posts are any evidence, it is also much more dignified.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[danadc]

Hello guys, posible reasons why the price fell? Do you think it is because of the existing inflation in the USA? According to Biden, it is the largest inflation rate in the last 40 years, because it spoke that it recorded an inflation rate of more than 8%, to be more specific 8.6%, and in Europe the same with 8.1%, panic has taken over of many investors ...

Who have thought about buying? buy in this dip? It is not a bad idea, they are fresh btc due to panic, I wonder these investors where they will put their money? Because in money Fiat no longer, I think that a good option is gold ...

[shahzadafzal]

Is #Bitcoin  dipping again?
I feel nothing…

https://twitter.com/btc_archive/status/1536297448255152128?s=21

[OutOfMemory]

Somebody after Saylor's coins?
$21k and he's said to be liquidated...

But Somebody after Saylor's coins?
$19k and he's said to be liquidated

Genius noob anal-yst.

Just another trolling attempt, i guess...

[empowering]

Is #Bitcoin  dipping again?
I feel nothing…

https://twitter.com/btc_archive/status/1536297448255152128?s=21

No Bitcoiners do.


We are all "psychopaths" apparently remember ?

[OutOfMemory]

My latest activity:

1. Read thread

2. Log in, just to put the latest troll acct on /ignore

3. Any acct that gives that troll acct kudos, pats, merits, or "you're awesome" bs also goes on /ignore

4. Log out

It's getting tedious now. May have to ghost this forum for a few months.

Oh, this forum/thread already has some ghosts. Some of them are missed, some are not.
Nothing unusual.

[JayJuanGee]

Times like these I just don't look at the monetary value of my various wallets. I avoid looking.  

What do you mean?  The monetary value, measured in money (i.e., BTC), remains constant at a rate of 1 BTC = 1 BTC.

There are a lot of contradictions and irony in your above statement, and I am trying to sort in my mind where to start in order to attempt to potentially help anyone who actually believes such dumb thoughts like that. 

Don't get me wrong, I am not picking on you in particular, and part of the reason that I tend to respond to quite a few of your posts is that you tend to articulate yourself well and you make a lot of good points, but also you say really dumb shit while trying to act like you are correct in your way of framing matters and that your view is a compelling one that should be shared/adopted (as if it were common sense) blah blah blah.  So in that regard, you are not the only one saying dumb, abstract and detached from reality shit like that.

I know that I am repeating myself, but the reality of the matter is that we are in a very fucking early transitionary period in which the level of BTC adoption is so damned low (less than 1% of the world population and also less than 1% of the world's monetary value in BTC), so in that regard there is going to both be a lot of volatility and also there is going to be a lot of ongoing upside potential... and neither of those actual on-the-ground reality dynamics justify either putting all your brain power into using BTC as your accounting mechanism or even speculating that you need to hold all of your value (or even high portions of your value) in BTC in order to profit the fuck out of attaining and maintaining a reasonable/prudent stake in bitcoin... which these days I consider 1% to 25% of your overall investment portfolio (as you measure it) to be a good, fair and reasonable starting point (that is purposefully so fucking broad in terms of my recommendation that you (or any other newbie normie) will actually need to personally tailorize it) 

The only reason to get upset about the central bank shitcoin trade value is if you were playing around with margin.

I cannot really disagree with your overall point in regards to any suggestion that the employment of margin trading or any other financial instrument are way more advanced techniques than the vast majority of normies should be employing in terms of either their desires to accumulate BTC or to maintain their BTC holdings.. and sure there might be ways to employ such tools once any of us might reach a kind of status of very high BTC accumulation values and/or feeling that we are way overly allocated in BTC.. but still if we are using logic and/or reasonable assessments of our BTC holdings, we are most likely going to come to conclusions that we likely would not need to employ very high levels of employment of such tools in the event we want to use such tools to either continue to accumulate, maintain the value of our BTC holdings or even to try to inject some possibilities of exponentiality onto an asset class that is already seemingly quite exponential in the way that it is already designed (the "designed to pump forever" idea that is built into bitcoin). 

By the way, my above paragraph is meant to be largely as an agreement with you, even though I realize that you personally are not emplying the prudence and reasonableness that you seem to recognize as being better practices (perhaps best practices).

I disagree with your ongoing baloney insertion of likely to be misunderstood characterization of the dollar (and fiats) as shitcoins.. sure they are shittier than bitcoin overall, but they continue to serve quite a few purposes, including liquidity ideas and we still likely need to figure out ways in which we balance our investment portfolio holdings (including BTC) with them and even use those fiats to buy goods and services and of course to spend them first.. or towards the beginning of any spending that we might be doing...

Surely another point remains that there are quite a few shitcoins (referring to altcoins, crypto, scamscoins, scam projects like ICOS, Defi, and NFTs, blah blah blah that may well outperform the dollar in decently long timeframes, and I don't want to get into talking about those dynamics in this thread beyond just pointing them out, again)... because we just devolve into nonsense talk if we try to talk about which shitcoin happens to be less shitty and how to figure out how to allocate our investment portfolio holdings in shitcoins which even though on a personal level I have very small allocations in those kinds of shit projects, it may well be reasonable for guys and gal (from their own personal financial, psychological and skills' set perspective) to have some holdings and involvement in those kinds of coins and projects, but why the fuck we need to talk about every lil investment that guys/gal decide to involve themselves in, here?).. we have plenty else to talk about just in relation to king daddy - aka our precious lil.. that is currently taking a pretty decent beating in the past several months that has been exacerbated since about early May and seems to be continuing as I 48  hours or longer - even as type this post. .. not feeling too good with the recent low of $22,600 from about 3 hours ago, as I type this post...    ..

[Biodom]

We are all "psychopaths" apparently remember ?

this "psycho" is still here.....and have some unused funds.
was thinking of using them at the 'bottom' of the stock market plunge, but might put into btc instead...in due course.
Not buying the falling knives, though, although it is tempting.

[OutOfMemory]

unfortunately 2nd mortgage on a cardboard box under a bridge doesnt fetch much nowadays.

Something about this ₵ sign looks off...