To answer my own question—and ask if I am in error; if so, please tell me:
It looks like the biggest dip below 200 WMA
other than the Covid crash was 25 August 2015, 200 WMA $232.66 BTC, price $214.71.
That occurred shortly after the Hearn/XT situation exploded. Except for some short periods of false hopes, it took Bitcoin over a month to stabilize above 200 WMA; otherwise, it dragged along the line, slightly above and slightly below.
The proportionate % equivalent now with 200 WMA at about $22.3k is a drop to around
$20,500 or $20,600.The hard numbers are from surfing around. I need better data myself, and would appreciate if anyone can show me a place to download reliable numbers to crunch.
Eh, 200 WMA?
btw, what is the biggest-ever % dip below 200 WMA, other than the Covid crash which I do not think can be compared to any other event in the past few decades? Off the top of my head, I do not know. I know it could scrape along a little bit below it for awhile, without setting any new precedents.
covid (march 2020) was the biggest, went to 300 WMA on a wick.
average was 5.3K, went to 3.8K, so about 28% below 200 WMA.
The equivalent (on a wick) would be about 15.8K (just numbers, no prediction whatsoever).
Thanks for the numbers. However, as I stated in the quote, I do not think that the situation can be compared to the Covid crash.
In mid-March of 2020, there was global mass-hysteria. People were crying that the world was ending. People were
panic-selling gold (wtf!?) and
panic-buying toilet paper (
literal toilet paper—no, I do not
only mean the U.S. Dollar shitcoin). In that context, all markets crashed—and Bitcoin suffered its worst-ever black swan crash.
What we are now suffering is the inevitable after-effect of
extremely poor financial decisions that were made in that context, on a grand scale, by central banks and by governments.
I do not think it can be compared to Covid itself. Therefore,
I exclude the Covid crash as an outlier in considering previous crosses of the 200 WMA line.
Have people forgotten the extreme fear that was in the air just over two short years ago?
An interesting datum: mindrust expressed a belief that, in effect, the only thing that could stop Bitcoin from going to zero ($0.00) was the rapid discovery of a cure for Covid. (It wasn’t the only thing he said; he, and many others, were wildly confused and self-contradictory at that time.)
He was far from alone. End-of-the-world hysteria and wild irrationality were the New Normal, at that moment. So, Biodom, Bitcoin went 28% below 200 WMA. I also recall having seen discussion that the flash-crash briefly cut through the order books as low as $2400 or $2500 for (IIRC) the better part of an hour on some exchanges. That is a pretty bad wick of about
53% below 200 WMA, not comparable to anything before or since. (Of course, there is no such thing as one “Bitcoin price”.)
look at july + august 2020
Sorry, what? We were far above 200 WMA at that time; it was not even a bear market.
Poll
