Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ImThour]

BTC touched $20s. I didn't expected anything below 200 WMA but I think weekly close will be above it for sure i.e. $22k at this point.
If we get a close below 200 WMA, I would think it is then going to touch the major support trendline which is at $14.3k.
I am already all-in (Spot), I will try to get some money to buy anything under 18k.

[Copetech]

Cognac makes everything look cheerier.  I should stop writing soon...  I have never drunkposted here before, lol.

If it means anything, I don't think I have ever soberposted here before... \_/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

To answer my own question—and ask if I am in error; if so, please tell me:

It looks like the biggest dip below 200 WMA other than the Covid crash was 25 August 2015, 200 WMA $232.66 BTC, price $214.71.

That occurred shortly after the Hearn/XT situation exploded.  Except for some short periods of false hopes, it took Bitcoin over a month to stabilize above 200 WMA; otherwise, it dragged along the line, slightly above and slightly below.

The proportionate % equivalent now with 200 WMA at about $22.3k is a drop to around $20,500 or $20,600.

The hard numbers are from surfing around.  I need better data myself, and would appreciate if anyone can show me a place to download reliable numbers to crunch.

Eh, 200 WMA?

btw, what is the biggest-ever % dip below 200 WMA, other than the Covid crash which I do not think can be compared to any other event in the past few decades?  Off the top of my head, I do not know.  I know it could scrape along a little bit below it for awhile, without setting any new precedents.

covid (march 2020) was the biggest, went to 300 WMA on a wick.
average was 5.3K, went to 3.8K, so about 28% below 200 WMA.
The equivalent (on a wick) would be about 15.8K (just numbers, no prediction whatsoever).

Thanks for the numbers.  However, as I stated in the quote, I do not think that the situation can be compared to the Covid crash.

In mid-March of 2020, there was global mass-hysteria.  People were crying that the world was ending.  People were panic-selling gold (wtf!?) and panic-buying toilet paper (literal toilet paper—no, I do not only mean the U.S. Dollar shitcoin).  In that context, all markets crashed—and Bitcoin suffered its worst-ever black swan crash.

What we are now suffering is the inevitable after-effect of extremely poor financial decisions that were made in that context, on a grand scale, by central banks and by governments.

I do not think it can be compared to Covid itself.  Therefore, I exclude the Covid crash as an outlier in considering previous crosses of the 200 WMA line.


Have people forgotten the extreme fear that was in the air just over two short years ago?

An interesting datum:  mindrust expressed a belief that, in effect, the only thing that could stop Bitcoin from going to zero ($0.00) was the rapid discovery of a cure for Covid.  (It wasn’t the only thing he said; he, and many others, were wildly confused and self-contradictory at that time.)

He was far from alone.  End-of-the-world hysteria and wild irrationality were the New Normal, at that moment.  So, Biodom, Bitcoin went 28% below 200 WMA.  I also recall having seen discussion that the flash-crash briefly cut through the order books as low as $2400 or $2500 for (IIRC) the better part of an hour on some exchanges.  That is a pretty bad wick of about 53% below 200 WMA, not comparable to anything before or since.  (Of course, there is no such thing as one “Bitcoin price”.)

look at july + august 2020

Sorry, what?  We were far above 200 WMA at that time; it was not even a bear market.

[BobLawblaw]

What's your LN node routing stats looking like today? I was hoping for a significant increase in traffic, but not seeing that.. seems rather stable, if anything, less busy the last 24 hours...

Kinda poopy day for fees today.

Will barely scrape through with 300sats in fees on the daily, so far over 31 routings.

I should really be more greedy...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

* death_wish strokes Bitcoin’s hair gently, gently, whilst speaking in soothing tones.

Don’t worry, Bitcoin.  We still love you.  We will always love you.  Please don’t be so sad.

I want my bitcoins back.  To have and to hold.  Forever.

[xhomerx10]

I think I see what happened now.  Christina Aguilera has appropriated OUR green dildo, subverted its meaning and fucked us with it, leaving us utterly defenseless against this onslaught of red.

[DaRude]

A thought occured: M. Saylor is a giant death_wish...sorry, pal.
wtf did he (M.S) got so much on margin?
Should have just bought in cash+ a little (or none) on margin.
Now, obviously WS 'wants' to liquidate his position as they always do with all margins.

There must be a player or players behind this and it all point to one in particular...
..Who was the person who said that bitcoin cannot do transactions recently?
Where did celsius funds go?
Make your own conclusions.

That's why BTC needs no leader. Saylor getting margin called would not help BTC

[ImThour]

* death_wish strokes Bitcoin’s hair gently, gently, whilst speaking in soothing tones.

Don’t worry, Bitcoin.  We still love you.  We will always love you.  Please don’t be so sad.

I want my bitcoins back.  To have and to hold.  Forever.

Can you just stfu now? Spammed the whole thread with your stupid posts about you getting fucked for using leverages and not going the safe route with just holding BTC when you don't know shit about Trading? I am done with you and your shit.

So irritating.

[Paashaas]

https://twitter.com/JohalMiles/status/1536443880467488768

[heslo]

Well guys; this is the price we have to pay for all the shitcoinery, all the scams and all the leverage in the system. Unfortunately we've done nothing wrong but will feel the pain too (not as much as the shitcoins though)

It's been a pretty brutal 24 hours or so but I feel we will go lower depending on the incoming Celcius shitstorm on the horizon. I feel the real shit started with Luna and kicked off a chain of events that has lead to this; just took some time to propagate through the market. Of course the macro markets are hurting us too as everyone is going risk off. Keep safe everyone, keep those coins in cold storage and take advantage of these dips. I'm hoping to replace a few I sold last year that went towards my house so there's a silver lining to some of these things.

[Paashaas]

Weekly and monthly RSI most oversold in history of Bitcoin.

[ImThour]

Let's get back to this idea of mine which I posted on Apr 4th.

What 100 MA Cross 50 means?
It means that Bottom is in.

What is expected?
1. Price to touch 200 MA.
2. We are currently waiting for 100 MA to cross 50 MA.

Price already touched 200 MA, waiting for 100 MA to cross 50 MA.
Complete Idea: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/8u6sV8u8-Bitcoin-and-It-s-Events/

[heslo]

Weekly and monthly RSI most oversold in history of Bitcoin.

We're still going lower I think; not sure this ends until Celcius blows up. They did post more collateral so their liquidation price is now around 16k or so, dunno if we will see it hit that but it seems we're giving it a good hard try

[JayJuanGee]

200 W MA is but a hair away


Eyes on

The 200 W MA needs to hold , there's what the market tends to do when it gets to 200MA, goes little below to induce more sellers and then goes back above 200 MA.
Eyes on $20k or below Just one more leg down to $20k I have orders waiting to trigger @$20k to add some Stats maybe if we get more deeps I will continue to add more BTC to my portfolio.
Then come January 2025 is when I'm gonna remember my wallet.

Could even wick us down to 16-18k , I would be quite surprised if we go any further...


I do like surprises though

Speak for ur lil selfie in regards to surprises.

I have had about enough surprises in the past several weeks - even going back to early May..

enough is enough, no?

But, yeah we should not get shook out merely because a few more surprises than expected end up playing out.


I am shocked.






I am SHOCKED!!!!!!








I said....








I AM SHOCKED!!!!!








Can you stop now, King Daddy... My lil precious?  Asking for a friend.   

[Gachapin]

Weekly and monthly RSI most oversold in history of Bitcoin.

That's a good sign

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

* death_wish cradles Bitcoin, wiping the tears from its eyes.

* death_wish strokes Bitcoin’s hair gently, gently, whilst speaking in soothing tones.

Don’t worry, Bitcoin.  We still love you.  We will always love you.  Please don’t be so sad.

I want my bitcoins back.  To have and to hold.  Forever.

Can you just stfu now? Spammed the whole thread with your stupid posts about you getting fucked for using leverages and not going the safe route with just holding BTC when you don't know shit about Trading? I am done with you and your shit.

So irritating.

Translation:  Your feelings were hurt by this...

TA is astrology.  (And doubt that anyone could accuse me of low IQ—not that I care.  Cheers to ImThour for his savvy buy, but his forum account personal text is nonsense.)

...but you know you have no hope of pushing your “Low IQ Finds TA = Astrology” nonsense with me, of all people; and you are too cowardly to say what really upset you.

I was gracious before.

You can take your astrology and go jump in a lake, insofar as I am concerned.

Note:  Professional astrologers do make some accurate predictions.


Incidentally, I am working on a follow-up to the post where I incidentally mentioned that TA is astrology.  Not that it has anything to do with ImThour.

[JayJuanGee]

Hello guys, posible reasons why the price fell? Do you think it is because of the existing inflation in the USA? According to Biden, it is the largest inflation rate in the last 40 years, because it spoke that it recorded an inflation rate of more than 8%, to be more specific 8.6%, and in Europe the same with 8.1%, panic has taken over of many investors ...

Biden is understating the seriousness of the matter.

There is a difference between nominal inflation rate and real inflation rate... and there is less room to maneuver than there was 40 years ago.. but US does still have the advantage of using the whole world as its piggy bank.. even though there seems to be quite a bit of backlash playing out in regards to that practice, too.

Who have thought about buying? buy in this dip? It is not a bad idea, they are fresh btc due to panic, I wonder these investors where they will put their money? Because in money Fiat no longer, I think that a good option is gold ...

Short term a lot of folks rush to cash.. but sure they are kind of in a pickle no matter what.. and only a very small number of them will both figure out bitcoin and act upon their having had figured out to get into bitcoin.. and that is even if they are authorized to do such... which surely gives us retail folks quite a bit of an advantage to front-run those status quo advantaged fucktwats.. because bitcoin is an every man investment.. even though some institutions have to get approval to get into it...


 hahahahaha... poor lil tingilies.. I feel sorry for them...    













NOT...

We are all "psychopaths" apparently remember ?

this "psycho" is still here.....and have some unused funds.
was thinking of using them at the 'bottom' of the stock market plunge, but might put into btc instead...in due course.
Not buying the falling knives, though, although it is tempting.

hahahaaha



Decisions, decisions.


What to do?  what to do?



Do I increase my 20 BTC or not?




21 BTC might be a good number, but hey maybe it would be better to invest in a "safer" asset... ?



hahahahaha




And, you wonder why I have a tendency to wonder about uie pooie.  

I always say that you have to buy in RISING market, not in dropping one.
I know that it is counterintuitive, but it is so.
Of course, timing is still tricky because you can have a temporary reprieve that could last months.

That's why you can be categorized as "wimpily" invested in BTC rather than "over-invested" 

It seems like overly invested gives more options.., especially in an investment like BTC that has historically appreciated so much (the best really - especially if we are looking at 5 to 8 year time horizon.. or a wee bit longer perhaps for some of us - including uie-pooie) and is likely to continue to be amongst the best asymmetric bets to the upside. - just saying..