Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[death_wish]

Price won't hold for much longer.

Imagine we break 2017 all time high, that would be uncharted territory  

It looks very likely, especially with the Fed meeting coming up

What do we consider the 2017 high 19.6k or something?

We are already far below the 2017 top.  I recently got in an argument about this—when BTC was around $28k.  Now, I do not think anyone can question my statement that $19k (hah, $19.6k) in 2017 dollars bought much more goods and services than $20,360 at this moment, as I write this.

https://twitter.com/StockmoneyL/status/1536795056618749953

Who puts August–September 2015 in a “bull market”?  (Or any of 2015?)

I was just saying something that implied August–September 2015 could be a precedent for us to scrape along/below 200 WMA for the next month.  (If you believe that past performance indicates anything about future results, etc.)

The chart itself shows that 2015 was a bear year—i.e., a great time to buy.  But the chart labels it “bull market” based on a technical indicator widget.  “Bear” or “bull” means the price, not an indicator someone believes to predict future movements in the price.

[BitcoinBunny]

Price won't hold for much longer.

Imagine we break 2017 all time high, that would be uncharted territory  

It looks very likely, especially with the Fed meeting coming up

What do we consider the 2017 high 19.6k or something?

We are already far below the 2017 top.  I recently got in an argument about this—when BTC was around $28k.  Now, I do not think anyone can question my statement that $19k (hah, $19.6k) in 2017 dollars bought much more goods and services than $20,360 at this moment, as I write this.

True,
We are at around $17,250 in 2017 money based on CPI inflation since.

[somac.]

Shit is getting real folks, the emergency meetings have begun

https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1162034-ecb-to-discuss-reinvestment-of-pepp-bonds-at

[ImThour]

I've just bought 0.5BTC @ $20700. I'm ready to buy all the way down. Bring it on, bears! Next 1BTC buy is @18K.

Yesterday I went all-in however I quickly sold 50% because I wanted to wait for this weekly candle to close above 200 MA.
If weekly closes below 200 MA, then it will become resistance and prices will fall towards 300 MA which is at $16k.
Scary time, let's see how it goes from here.

[Wilhelm]

Someone needs a salmonslap to stop selling, the weak hands are pathetic.
I hope from now on these weak hands will only be able to own dust.

Hopefully FED news isn't too bad and we bounce to 300k  

[somac.]

Someone needs a salmonslap to stop selling, the weak hands are pathetic.
I hope from now on these weak hands will only be able to own dust.

Hopefully FED news isn't too bad and we bounce to 300k  

These might be liquidations to shore up shitcoin positions gone wrong.

[OutOfMemory]

Someone needs a salmonslap to stop selling, the weak hands are pathetic.
I hope from now on these weak hands will only be able to own dust.

Hopefully FED news isn't too bad and we bounce to 300k  

I can imagine some putting more into wheat markets, because russia and ukraine war has negative impact on wheat production, mainly destined for Africa.
Well, hodlers are hodlers, speculators are speculators. The former stay in, the latter come back.
Easy buy.

EDIT: I seem to have got some more Sats at about $100 above this dip's low (so far). Not unsatisfied. 

[ImThour]

Two Upcoming Scenarios -

1. If Weekly Candle closes below 200 MA, we are going towards 300 MA i.e. 16k.
2. If Weekly Candle closes above 200 MA, we are going towards 30k.

Let's see how this goes on from here. Fed hiking up bps to 75 will cause some huge movements either up or down.

[Franctoshi]

https://twitter.com/TheCryptoLark/status/1536964527962542080?t=HgHEulzGYiyJ5-YTP_0zXw&s=19

A scary amount of multi hundred million dollar #bitcoin and #ethereum positions on lenders like Aave and Maker are in danger of liquidation.

[BitcoinBunny]

One thing's for sure: The mother of all recessions is on its way!

 

[somac.]

One thing's for sure: The mother of all recessions is on its way!

 

Pretty sure we're already in it.

[somac.]

Hold onto your Mcdonald's hats 20k is about to go.

At least we have decoupled from the Nasdaq, lol.

[OutOfMemory]

When Lambo Barrow?

[death_wish]

$48.82 is now a lot of money to me.  Finding that loose change helped so much.

A very sad story for how smart you sound. The moral I draw from the story, regardless of whether it is true or not, as I cannot verify it, is that one should never be overconfident of one's intelligence. Doing so can have catastrophic consequences.

I think these things happen because of addication. death_wish can shed some light on this I'm sure.

What kind of addiction?  I never do drugs; I am very strictly against the recreational abuse of psychotropics.  Except in such circumstances as having just lost a fortune, I don’t drink immoderately; I rarely drink at all.  I don’t have any history of problems with gambling—perhaps because I understand the mathematics of gambling; if someone offers me a game of chance, I will only bet on the EV+ side in the amount proved optimal by the Kelly Criterion.  Not sure what you mean.

$48.82 is now a lot of money to me.  Finding that loose change helped so much.

A very sad story for how smart you sound. The moral I draw from the story, regardless of whether it is true or not, as I cannot verify it, is that one should never be overconfident of one's intelligence. Doing so can have catastrophic consequences.

The worst part:  I am sufficiently intelligent to have warned others in the past not to do what I did.

I get rekt by NOT following my own advice.  I knew better.

Perhaps I was underconfident in my own intelligence, and thus vulnerable to the allure of all the influences that urge people towards taking debt against BTC and using margin.  It’s not that anyone told me to do this.  There is a sort of a psychological background noise urging it:  The “don’t spend your BTC—borrow against it!” ads we’ve all seen, the promotion of margin trading by exchanges, the public chatter of some traders who act like they have brass balls with margin, etc.  If you don’t have confidence in your own judgment, then eventually, it sinks in.  It is a subtle type of peer pressure and social influence.

I usually have supreme confidence in my own judgment; and I am immune to peer pressure.  I frankly don’t know why the hell I did this.  In one of my earlier posts, I suggested temporary insanity.  More likely:  Greed.  I screwed myself for years by being insufficiently greedy—by not aggressively seeking to increase my wealth.  I made a few good moves, but not nearly what I could have.  Then, I got tired of not having enough.  I talked so much about Bitcoin; I wanted to have some more of those bitcoins!  Make money fast.  I didn’t want to wait anymore, to keep do it right.

I sought a shortcut to riches.  Thus, I cut short my riches.

[somac.]

$48.82 is now a lot of money to me.  Finding that loose change helped so much.

A very sad story for how smart you sound. The moral I draw from the story, regardless of whether it is true or not, as I cannot verify it, is that one should never be overconfident of one's intelligence. Doing so can have catastrophic consequences.

I think these things happen because of addication. death_wish can shed some light on this I'm sure.

What kind of addiction?  I never do drugs; I am very strictly against the recreational abuse of psychotropics.  Except in such circumstances as having just lost a fortune, I don’t drink immoderately; I rarely drink at all.  I don’t have any history of problems with gambling—perhaps because I understand the mathematics of gambling; if someone offers me a game of chance, I will only bet on the EV+ side in the amount proved optimal by the Kelly Criterion.  Not sure what you mean.

$48.82 is now a lot of money to me.  Finding that loose change helped so much.

A very sad story for how smart you sound. The moral I draw from the story, regardless of whether it is true or not, as I cannot verify it, is that one should never be overconfident of one's intelligence. Doing so can have catastrophic consequences.

The worst part:  I am sufficiently intelligent to have warned others in the past not to do what I did.

I get rekt by NOT following my own advice.  I knew better.

Perhaps I was underconfident in my own intelligence, and thus vulnerable to the allure of all the influences that urge people towards taking debt against BTC and using margin.  It’s not that anyone told me to do this.  There is a sort of a psychological background noise urging it:  The “don’t spend your BTC—borrow against it!” ads we’ve all seen, the promotion of margin trading by exchanges, the public chatter of some traders who act like they have brass balls with margin, etc.  If you don’t have confidence in your own judgment, then eventually, it sinks in.  It is a subtle type of peer pressure and social influence.

I usually have supreme confidence in my own judgment; and I am immune to peer pressure.  I frankly don’t know why the hell I did this.  In one of my earlier posts, I suggested temporary insanity.  More likely:  Greed.  I screwed myself for years by being insufficiently greedy—by not aggressively seeking to increase my wealth.  I made a few good moves, but not nearly what I could have.  Then, I got tired of not having enough.  I talked so much about Bitcoin; I wanted to have some more of those bitcoins!  Make money fast.  I didn’t want to wait anymore, to keep do it right.

I sought a shortcut to riches.  Thus, I cut short my riches.

gambling addiction

[BitcoinBunny]

Ironically all the Europe stonk markets are up.

I think they are severely lagging behind with what is going to happen / what is already happening.

The Ukraine / Russia Russia distraction will soon disappear from the news.

[OutOfMemory]

Hold onto your Mcdonald's hats 20k is about to go.

At least we have decoupled from the Nasdaq, lol.

Nah, all those "i am waiting for $20k to buy bitcorn" nocoiners will finally save us. probably

EDIT: At least, i can extend my list of hobbies:

1. skateboarding
2. archery
3. photography
4. meditation
5. woodworking
6. catching knives

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

Why Celsius and 3AC going under should cause you to worry

1/x

19/x - Also - If you are wondering why BTC and ETH are the first to be sold off, its because in a crisis, you sell what you can. Not what you want. There is no liquidity for shitcoins/ "alts"/ dreams

https://twitter.com/hodlKRYPTONITE/status/1536902115540742144

[P2PECS]

What kind of addiction?  I never do drugs; I am very strictly against the recreational abuse of psychotropics.  Except in such circumstances as having just lost a fortune, I don’t drink immoderately; I rarely drink at all.  I don’t have any history of problems with gambling—perhaps because I understand the mathematics of gambling; if someone offers me a game of chance, I will only bet on the EV+ side in the amount proved optimal by the Kelly Criterion.  Not sure what you mean.

What I believe is that sometimes, no matter how smart we are, we have an emotional part that we do not consciously control part of the time, and overconfidence in our intelligence can activate that emotional part.

There are cases of very intelligent people ruined, or who ended up committing suicide and things like that, and I think it is largely because of that, apart from not learning to be happy with everyday things, with contentment.

The worst part:  I am sufficiently intelligent to have warned others in the past not to do what I did.

I get rekt by NOT following my own advice.  I knew better.

Perhaps I was underconfident in my own intelligence, and thus vulnerable to the allure of all the influences that urge people towards taking debt against BTC and using margin.  It’s not that anyone told me to do this.  There is a sort of a psychological background noise urging it:  The “don’t spend your BTC—borrow against it!” ads we’ve all seen, the promotion of margin trading by exchanges, the public chatter of some traders who act like they have brass balls with margin, etc.  If you don’t have confidence in your own judgment, then eventually, it sinks in.  It is a subtle type of peer pressure and social influence.

The person most to blame for popularizing this is Michael Saylor, the exchanges took advantage of his message to make a lot of money.