@jjg- "You are not really making any kind of special case that Lump sum is better than DCA, Biodom"
No special case needed, it was all in the graphs (shown in @bitebits original post) that are clearly in support of my argument.
Those charts are not applied to real cases of newbie normies. .or representative situations that normies are going to find themself in while they are accumulating/building their BTC stash.
It's almost like you are pushing me into outlining some more actual numbers to show what kind of a situation that a newbie normie might find himself in, and also including perhaps having some lump sum amounts available to him at various points during his investment (let's say over the past 9 years-ish).
From a practical point of view, i also know that i am right by just looking at numbers.
I told you my average buy price; that should be sufficient.
It seems that I have also made the case several times too.. that it may well be better if any of us might have been able financially and psychologically to have had built our BTC stash larger because we engaged in a practice that facilitated our being more aggressive and assertive rather than being whimpy.
I gave the Saylor example above in which he could have rested on his laurels and had around 30k BTC or maybe more than that.. perhaps 50k BTC, and had an average BTC cost of around $10k per BTC; however, now Saylor has more than 130k BTC, but his average cost per BTC is around $30k per BTC. Are you going to tell me that the person with 50k BTC at an average cost of $10k per BTC is better off than the person with 130k BTC and an average cost of $30k per BTC?.. and let's say that there is a kind of management of cashflows that facilitated the ability to acquire more than 130k BTC ONLY based on being active, assertive and persistent, so even though the BTC price is currently still below $30k per BTC, there is no way to accumulate an additional 80 BTC based on current capital and cashflow available.. so Saylor (and his company) has an additional 80 BTC that he would not have otherwise been able to accumulate becuase he was aggressive and assertive in a timely and persistent manner.
It is quite likely that we could use similar examples in reference to your own average cost per BTC as compared with mine and the relative quantity of BTC that were able to be accumulated based on aggressive/assertive and timely persistency comparisons. So you can believe what you like in terms of whether you had really been advantaged by keeping your costs per BTC down over the past 9 years-ish... and another thing still remains the general applicability to other like-wise similarly situated normies.
Don't get me wrong, I am not specifically in any kind of dick measuring contest with you because I hardly give any shits, yet I am trying to suggest that there are significant and materially beneficial difference and advantages in approaches that likely allow for more aggressiveness and assertiveness, and I am still pretty sure that you had failed/refused to be aggressive and assertive in your BTC investments and you were distracted into other investments (just like Philip) in part based on your own bearishness (and nothing that can be done about that), but also likely based on your lack of a persistent and consistent approach that would have contributed towards your being more active rather than waiting around and not pulling the buy trigger as much an as frequently as you otherwise could have iv you had followed a DCA approach in terms of your accumulation of BTC over the past 9 years and more likely in the first 3 years rather than maybe you came around to being more bullish at later dates... perhaps? I have my doubts.. I get the sense that you are largely ongoingly resting on your laurels and afraid to raise your cost per BTC.
Re @phillipma1957 point about two periods: 2009-2017 and 2017-2023, I would call the first one a "LS" period, but the second was not DCA period, but rather BTFD period.
A simple strategy of looking for a ATH, then buying the "dip" with at least 70% discount would handily beat DCA in 2017-2023.
You think so? I am sure it is possible, especially for someone watching the BTC price and dynamics for 4-9 years previously, but how about for a newbie normie who might be way the fuck more sceptical and unsure about what to do? you think everyone can figure this out on the spot, even though it is easy to see on the charts after the fact.
How would any newbie normie know when were the highs and when were the low?
When would any newbie normie know how much to buy and whether to save some dry powder?
I doubt it is as easy as you are suggesting, even if your buddy Philip is telling you that it was easy, and look at him, nearly a no coiner... and look at yourself, only 20 BTC.
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I couldn't resist.Even though I ONLY have a bit more than 0.63 BTC myself, I still think that my points stand.However, right now and during the last 6 -8mo, I had a feeling that later 2022-early 2023 was a start of another "LS" period going forward.
Buying via DCA would be vastly inferior from that time on (in my opinion, of course) vs a lump sum buy executed by dividing your 'lump' into three portions starting in the summer doldrums of 2022.
Oh gawd.
You are looking at the charts and you are saying that if someone might have had $12k at the beginning of 2022 and that person bought $250 per week throughout the year, then s/he would have done worse than the person who bought $4k at three strategic times during the year.. maybe 1) May/June, 2) September-ish and 3) December-ish.
yeah of course.., we can look at the charts and see that kind of 3 lump sums would have been buying $250 every week, but how the fuck is a normie newbie going to know? Comes into bitcoin in early 2022, has zero coins and is supposed to just wait around rather than getting a stake? Seems to easy to say that when looking at the charts after the fact and to say that's what s/he should have done. You are a genius. Is that replicable?
BTW, I consider only monotonous DCA a "true" DCA.
Coming up with your own definitions, now? Yes, there are pure forms and there are ways that people can tweak their strategies.. and if someone is brand new, then they likely have to start with something more "monotonous" and basic until they get their bearings.. including perhaps getting their own financial and psychological shit together. .and if they have some other investing experience or have already built an investment portfolio, then they likely would be less of a normie newbie.. even though there still might be some particulars that anyone new to bitcoin may well have to learn, even if they might have some life experiences
(investment, risk management or otherwise) when coming into bitcoin.
If you incorporate periodic BTFD and small lump sums, then it is clearly not DCA, but a mixed strategy.
Oh? Now you are starting to get it..
Have you finally figured out that I do not suggest ONLY DCA, but I suggest when you get started DCA is the best, and then figure out your particulars regarding the employment of the other strategies, but if you don't gots no time to figure things out, then stick with DCA until you gets ur lil selfie some more times to figure things out a wee bit MOAR better.
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