Wow!!!!
Interesting and provocative numbers darkangel11..
I like that you are so specific..
At the same time, something seems wrong about your numbers though.. and maybe even your framework... ... and in some sense, there might be a need to lock in whatever timeframe that you are talking about and even lock in some of the variables.. .. so once you start to say, if this happens then, then you are adding a whole different potential leg.. and it becomes really difficult to deal with predicting more than one leg at a time, even though if we see from now to the end of the year, or even from now until March 2024, either certain prices will be hit (to the upside or the downside) or they won't.... so I am not sure how much muddying that we would like to do with the various changes of the possibilities that might happen at various points between now and March 2024.
Just looking at one factor.. is the bottom in or not... that would be right around $15,479 on November 20, 2022.. so if we just have that one question, you seem to be giving something in the ball park of 99% that the bottom is already in, and so why am I (and even other people) having such a dilemma on that exact question regarding whether or not the bottom is in, if the percentage is 99% that it is in?
So if you are giving such an unrealistically high number that the bottom is already in
(from the point of view of this here cat), then something has got to be wrong about your other numbers, no?
Of course, another problem is that there could be both "a breakout to at least $35k" and the bottom not being in... so that seems to be another problem in that you have too many scenarios that you are wanting to present.. and again, I do still like a lot of your numbers, but even though you have placed all the scenarios into the 100% range, you are describing ways in which the numbers end up adding up to more than 100%. so that seems to be a bit of a presentation problem...even though surely I could attempt to better guess what you are trying to say.. but I am too lazy.
Just the way I feel about the market in relation to the chart presented by summonerrk. The chart suggested a bearish continuation to 8k is possible, which makes no sense to me.
The timeframe was this whole year.
Yup, IMO there's 99% chance the bottom is in and that is going to go up even more the closer we get to the halving. I feel that the only way to reach a new low is a so called "black swan event" where a strong external factor influences the market, the way covid19 lockdown lin the US made us go to 4k in 2020.
IMO there's nothing wrong with the rest of my numbers. I feel that the external factors like the banking crisis, FED hikes, and SEC lawsuits put so much pressure on the price that we're likely to stay in an extended consolidation.
Like I said yesterday, we couldn't breach 10k resistance for about 12 months in 2019-2020 and this could happen again, with the difference of the resistance being 31k.
My numbers add up to 100% with additional 0.01%. chance of going to 8k (suggested by summonerrk), but again, it's just the way I see the market after holding throughout 2 bear markets (2014 and 2018). Was it really over 100%? I may be drunk today, but the numbers seem to be fine. It's literally 100% when you sum it up with that 0.01 added just for fun.
Last time I said something like that people said I was too bearish, now I feel like you see me as too bullish. I'm confused
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