[BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS)

[carnitastaco]

If the difficulty adjusted right now to 25235779 then selling would receive a dividend of 0.006924 BTC/share. However, the difficulty is expected to continue increasing, so the actual dividend will probably be above .007.

Wowzers, selling seems very conservatively priced currently...

since day 1.

[odolvlobo]

If the difficulty adjusted right now to 25235779 then selling would receive a dividend of 0.006924 BTC/share. However, the difficulty is expected to continue increasing, so the actual dividend will probably be above .007.

Wowzers, selling seems very conservatively priced currently...

Don't be fooled by the current dividend yield. SELLING value and dividends both will drop, eventually to 0. You must account for this fact before you decide if it is conservatively priced or not. The good news is that this thread contains enough information to make a good evaluation.

[Deprived]

Sold   308
Swapped   0
Total   308
Price   0.048997
Total   15.091076
Less Fee   15.06089385
Man Fee   0.451826815

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1263.773183
12600 LTC-ATF.B1    126.00000000
Coinlenders CD    201.37222714
Just-Dice Balance    107.94373293
TOTAL ASSETS    1,699.08914276
   
Outstanding MINING   35743
Outstanding SELLING   35743
Outstanding PURCHASE   639
Effective Units   36382
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   21,335,329
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00011786
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00589288
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01178577
365 days (Buyback)    0.04301806
405 days (IPO)    0.04773236
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.04714308
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.04832165
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,694.80124430
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.04658351
Days Dividend Post Div   395.25
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,694.80124430
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.04658351
PURCHASE selling price    0.04891269
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.04565184

[FloatesMcgoates]

Sorry I'm asking this question again but I am still confused on the timing for the selling dividend.

If the difficulty increase occurs in between tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, well selling receive the dividend on the day after tomorrow?

[Deprived]

Sorry I'm asking this question again but I am still confused on the timing for the selling dividend.

If the difficulty increase occurs in between tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, well selling receive the dividend on the day after tomorrow?

If the increase occurs before midnight (GMT) then you receive it the next day.
If it occurs on or after midnight (GMT) then you don't get it for another day.

In practice this time that means if it occurs at or before 23:59:59 GMT 10th July then the SELLING dividend would be on the 11th.
If it occurs after 23:59:59 GMT 10th July then the SELLING dividend would be on the 12th.

At present it's very hard to tell whether it will occur before or after that midnight - that depends mainly on netwrok luck between now and then (and whether new hashing power is added or existing power ceases to run).

[alexius89]

according to this site: http://allchains.info/

the Difficulty will rise by about 21.69%   in about 1 day & 7 hours

What will be the estimated Dividend per SELLING share including all the winnings from Investments in Coin Lenders & Just Dice?

[Deprived]

according to this site: http://allchains.info/

the Difficulty will rise by about 21.69%   in about 1 day & 7 hours

What will be the estimated Dividend per SELLING share including all the winnings from Investments in Coin Lenders & Just Dice?

Sorry - I don't/can't give estimates until I know for sure what the difficulty will change to.  If I get it wrong and people make decisions based on my estimate then I'd likely get complaints.

The size of the dividend depends a LOT on the new difficulty value (and the new dividend amount).  A change of .0000001 in the new dividend would make a change of .00004 in the dividend paid - 400 times the amount.

Once the difficulty has actually changed then I'll give an estimate as soon as I'm around - as at that point it won't really change a lot.  Until then you have to work it out yourself : ANYONE can work it out just as easily and accurately as me (other than any major gains from investment - which there haven't been since today's report).

[twentyseventy]

according to this site: http://allchains.info/

the Difficulty will rise by about 21.69%   in about 1 day & 7 hours

What will be the estimated Dividend per SELLING share including all the winnings from Investments in Coin Lenders & Just Dice?

This spreadsheet made by Lohoris may be of some assistance. I made a copy and can therefore adjust the numbers myself for difficulty, current assets, etc.

You're welcome, I'm glad I could help someone, since it took a bit to figure it out myself

Here's a spreadsheet version : )

[alexius89]

okay i c!

so about 0,008 BTC / SELLING share   + Winnings from the investment.

Correct?

[furuknap]

Main argument I've seen from him is that it has more price volatility - by which I assume he means its price is more likely to drop to realistic levels because people who don't already hold shares can push it down.  But that's irrelevant to actual investors - who buy for the dividends (which are unaffected by its price) - and in fact is beneficial for them as if they believe the price is already good then if it gets pushed lower they get to buy more at an absolute bargain price.

You are using realistic as if it didn't have an aspect of predicting the future by the herd. I don't find that comforting.

My main argument for not comparing against DMS.Mining is that it has a higher volatility caused by shifts in difficulty. This is completely rrelevant for people who buy for dividends only and intends to hold on until the contracts or funds close.

However, for those that want the added security of being able to sell all of parts of their assets at their leisure, DMS.Mining has an extra exposure because in a panic, people tend to extrapolate the future from a shorter and shorter period. If you wander around the board, you'll already find people predicting that in five years, we'll have ASIC miners based on 0.5nm chips and that it's perfectly reasonable to assume we'll be investing $1.2 billion dollars in ASIC miners the next twelve months.

The three assets in question yield more than 200% if difficulty did not increase. Of course the prices take a future difficulty increase into account. Anything else would be absolutely madness.

My argument is and has been that people who want to have the added certainty of not being forced by the herd's mentality has an added risk with DMS.Mining.

Your argument about the benefit is only valid as long as difficulty rises; if difficulty flattened out today or friedcat said "Screw this, I'm going into porn", prices for all the assets, DMS.Mining included, would shoot through the roof, which would be very bad if investors wanted to buy more.

.b

[furuknap]

It's simple really. Furuknap won't compare DMS.MINING because it would show his asset is overpriced in comparison.

Strange, because I updated the comparison yesterday to include DMS.Mining. Can it be that your conclusion is based on the assumption that you can read my mind, perhaps?

Any other rationale is hot air. He's only okay with comparing to TAT.VM because it has a little MORE volatility due to speculators and due to the lack of an instrument to bet against it (ignoring that *I* still can bet against it by issuing new shares).

I was actually quite fine with comparing with TAT.VM also when it was cheaper than BFMines, if you remember.

All of Furuknap's arguments are bull. Any time the conversation goes in a direction he doesn't like, he says he he's not willing to make assumptions. However, any time it goes in a direction that paints his asset in a good light, or merely obfuscates its being overpriced, he has no problem making convenient assumptions.

The only thing of any consequence I am unwilling to predict is difficulty evolution (and by extension profitability). I haven't seen your predictions about what your TAT.VM investors will get in six months either, but you're bitching and moaning that I won't predict the same. That's a bit hipocritical, no?

I have, however, provided extensive research material for investors to allow them to make informed decisions. I have summarized what we know will arrive and made very clear what I don't know, such as when hardware providers will deliver. I have repeatedly warned people about dangers. I have excluded beneficial factors about BFMines when comparing it to yours to give you an advantage.

What I have not done, however, is question your integrity, honesty, or best intent. I'm slightly saddened to see that you're attacking me on a personal level, though, rather than providing any factual arguments.

.b

[Deprived]

Main argument I've seen from him is that it has more price volatility - by which I assume he means its price is more likely to drop to realistic levels because people who don't already hold shares can push it down.  But that's irrelevant to actual investors - who buy for the dividends (which are unaffected by its price) - and in fact is beneficial for them as if they believe the price is already good then if it gets pushed lower they get to buy more at an absolute bargain price.

You are using realistic as if it didn't have an aspect of predicting the future by the herd. I don't find that comforting.

My main argument for not comparing against DMS.Mining is that it has a higher volatility caused by shifts in difficulty. This is completely rrelevant for people who buy for dividends only and intends to hold on until the contracts or funds close.

On what basis do you decide it has a higher volatilty?  Here's the graph for MINING (go to 30-day):

http://www.coinflow.co/chart/DMS.MINING

Indeed there WAS a big drop after the difficulty rise on 22nd June.  But thing is, the price rebounded back up again afterwards.  In fact the price now (1 day before a large rise in difficulty) is basically exactly the same as it was on 21st June (the day before the large difficulty rise 2 rises ago).  The evidence just doesn't support your agrument that DMS.MINING has more volatilty.

Compare it to TAT.VM :

http://www.coinflow.co/chart/TAT.VIRTUALMINE

That had a larger drop at the large difficulty rise and never rose back quite so well.  There's barely any trade on the other PMBs to compare to.

On the last drop there was barely a budge in MINING price - just 1 or 2 people sold shares and the price then rebounded (same thing happened in the middle between the two rises).

It's all fine and well arguing about how volatility effects things - but the data just doesn't support that it exists of the type you were referring to.  Sure some people will panic - but there's no reason to believe they'll do it more than will on other assets.  And they can't over-correct downwards every time anyway - or they'd be giving away the shares in no time at all.  Fact is the price now is within 5% of where it was 3 weeks ago - with 2 difficulty changes having occurred in between.  And I'm sure you'd agree that logically the price SHOULD be falling a bit anyway - regardless of herd mentality - as the dividends already paid will never be paid again.

If you compare MINING to other PMBs you'll also find that the trades occur in a much narrower band - which is far better for those who want to buy as investment with the opportunity to sell again later.

Your volatility appears to be a mythical beast.  I have to admit until I just looked at the graphs I hadn't realised just how wrong it was - I'd assumed the price had fallen significantly when in fact it hasn't (after the initial correction when the person trying to pump the price gave up).

Oh - and even if the 'volatility' WAS real it still wouldn't matter for comparisons anyway.  As if MINING dropped to a lot cheaper then SOME of those investing would realise they could sell their BFM, buy MINING and get the same returns with cash left in their wallet : and that would bring the 'volatility' over to BFM anyway.  Hell ,I've even seen at least one ISSUER of a PMB sell more of their own shares then buy some MINING.

[Deprived]

FUrther to the above here's the average selling price of MINING for each day since 18th June (3rd column is MINING price - 2nd was the PURCHASE selling price).  The 2 difficulty changes were on 22nd June and 30th June.  And right up to yesterday trades were still occurring at an average price around same as before the first of those 2 drops.  I've excluded the first 6 days as those were price-discovery combined with someone who obviously didn't understand how it worked trying to manipulate the market up (then giving up and selling at a loss).

18/06/2013    0.054609     0.019510
19/06/2013    0.054589     0.020090
20/06/2013    0.054499     0.018390
21/06/2013    0.054412     0.018290
22/06/2013    0.054282     0.014690
23/06/2013    0.054190     0.014630
24/06/2013    0.054100     0.016650
25/06/2013    0.053963     0.019900
26/06/2013    0.053891     0.020450
27/06/2013    0.053794     0.021120
28/06/2013    0.053705     0.022220
29/06/2013    0.053583     0.022380
30/06/2013    0.053474     0.020990
01/07/2013    0.049500     0.019600
02/07/2013    0.049418     0.019730
03/07/2013    0.049338     0.020270
04/07/2013    0.049273     0.020580
05/07/2013   0.049263    0.019980
06/07/2013    0.049181     0.019910
07/07/2013    0.049083     0.018870
08/07/2013    0.048994     0.018280
09/07/2013   0.048997    0.019460

MINING prices are an average for last 24 hours taken at around the time I paid out dividends each day - not done precisely on time but within an hour of it on all occasions (usually just before, sometimes just after).

[metazilla]

Deprived, not sure if you answered this already, but have you looked into automating the transfer of PURCHASE to MINING+SELLING shares?

[alexius89]

just as an information:

Current Difficulty:  21335330.00   

Estimated next difficulty:  26004984.65

Difficulty Est % Change: 21.89%

Retarget Distance: 0d 13hr 40m

So the DIVIDEND OF SELLING will be pretty high this time including The investment winnings.

[Deprived]

Deprived, not sure if you answered this already, but have you looked into automating the transfer of PURCHASE to MINING+SELLING shares?

Yeah - I'm going to be looking at getting that done once I've finished work on my website (mentioned it a few pages back).

I did have a quick look around a few days back but couldn't find any Oauth 2 libraries I could use to do it quickly, so as I'll likely have to learn some new language to do it it'll have to wait until I've finished what I'm currently working in.

Most of what I could find is only designed to use on a website - when, ideally, I want something to run stand alone (would set up a laptop I'm not currently using to run it with its own mobile broadband dongle in so it wasn't even using same IP as anything else).  I can't just upload it to my hosting as no way I'm going to leave anything that can access the account on a computer someone else (hosting provider's staff) could look at.

It's definitely something I want done - not just for DMS but for some other projects I have in mind.

[Deprived]

Sold   1800
Swapped   0
Total   1800
Price   0.048913
Total   88.0434
Less Fee   87.8673132
Man Fee   2.636019396

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1344.93544
12581 LTC-ATF.B1    125.81000000
Coinlenders CD    201.50404624
Just-Dice Balance    107.95682578
TOTAL ASSETS    1,780.20631212
   
Outstanding MINING   37561
Outstanding SELLING   37561
Outstanding PURCHASE   621
Effective Units   38182
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   21,335,329
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00011786
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00589288
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01178577
365 days (Buyback)    0.04301806
405 days (IPO)    0.04773236
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.04714308
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.04832165
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,775.70626982
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.04650637
Days Dividend Post Div   394.60
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,775.70626982
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.04650637
PURCHASE selling price    0.04883169
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.04557624

[somestranger]

Deprived, not sure if you answered this already, but have you looked into automating the transfer of PURCHASE to MINING+SELLING shares?

I did have a quick look around a few days back but couldn't find any Oauth 2 libraries I could use to do it quickly, so as I'll likely have to learn some new language to do it it'll have to wait until I've finished what I'm currently working in.

You should be able to do it pretty easily with Python using urllib2 and google's oauth2 library. If you don't know python yet, it is one of the easier languages to learn and very expressive / powerful.

[Deprived]

Deprived, not sure if you answered this already, but have you looked into automating the transfer of PURCHASE to MINING+SELLING shares?

I did have a quick look around a few days back but couldn't find any Oauth 2 libraries I could use to do it quickly, so as I'll likely have to learn some new language to do it it'll have to wait until I've finished what I'm currently working in.

You should be able to do it pretty easily with Python using urllib2 and google's oauth2 library. If you don't know python yet, it is one of the easier languages to learn and very expressive / powerful.

I don't know python but it did seem to be the one I was likely to end up using.  I'll probably sling up a bounty for someone else to do it - then amend whatever they produce to add in the extra functionality I'll want later.

Had hoped to find a C++ library for it but doesn't seem to be a decent one around.  The issue isn't so much learning another language as learning all the different libraries for things like building a GUI, interfacing with a database etc.

[metazilla]

just as an information:

Current Difficulty:  21335330.00   

Estimated next difficulty:  26004984.65

Difficulty Est % Change: 21.89%

Retarget Distance: 0d 13hr 40m

So the DIVIDEND OF SELLING will be pretty high this time including The investment winnings.

Yes, my estimate based on bitcoindifficulty.com and the latest NAV/U is 0.00805837 BTC/share. That's 25.84% of your investment!!