Hunterbunter
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January 30, 2014, 02:32:34 AM |
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Bots are generally closely guarded secrets because they're so powerful. They take away the emotions of trading, so you can set a strategy and just let it go
I am seriously uncomfortable with the entire thing, to write for Devtome forces me to become a currency trader, something I wouldn't do in any other environment to get paid for my work. I suspect a lot of newcomers are going to be challenged by it as well so a bot would be awesome and might make this just a little less traumatic for some of us If you are able to make one for commercial sale, would it ever be affordable for a writer or developer being paid in DVC? Definitely, I personally want to see the devcoin project succeed, and if releasing a bot at an affordable price means there's one less down side to accepting payments in devcoins, I'll consider that a win. To make one that works with all the various exchanges and coins and everything, it's a lot of time I have to take away from my other important projects. The EMA-Volatility algorithm I wrote is for people who want to hold on to some coins (in case it goes to the moon!), but keep some in reliable cash in case it doesn't, as well as earn some interest just for providing market liquidity. You can add/withdraw from your account in either currency and it'll automatically adjust to the new balances. In that regard it's a bit like an interest bearing savings account...but managed by a bot. I do need help working out what an affordable price is, though...anyone have any ideas? The thing with markets is you'll never know if you're actually taking advantage of fear or if you're simply providing liquidity (ie someone is genuinely purchasing/selling them for an intended use). It's a bit like how some countries have the practice where there's only one real bullet in a firing squad, so no individual shooter knows if they were the one that took the life.
I think though, that real success in trading means actually hoping and even being a bit delighted by fear/negative forces to help with that success. In the end, those who might not be as hard-nosed or cant afford to lose so they react to fear, are always going to be the losers. (IMO) That's right - I've heard it said that the ratio of psychopaths to normal people are higher in CEO positions than any other profession. I'll bet day-trading wouldn't be far behind...and I actually wrote the bot because I was a terrible fear driven trader lol.
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Unthinkingbit
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January 30, 2014, 02:47:25 AM |
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.. That's right - I've heard it said that the ratio of psychopaths to normal people are higher in CEO positions than any other profession. I'll bet day-trading wouldn't be far behind...and I actually wrote the bot because I was a terrible fear driven trader lol.
Indeed, CEO is the top profession for psychopaths: http://www.policymic.com/articles/72653/these-are-the-10-most-psychopathic-jobs-in-americahowever, accountants are the tenth least psychopathic profession. What makes a profession fit for psychopaths is not stress, but dishonesty. That's why the list starts with: CEO Lawyer Media Salesperson I don't think daytrading is a good profession for a psychopath because there's nothing to be gained by lying.
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Unthinkingbit
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January 30, 2014, 02:50:20 AM |
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Seed Node
2/5 of a share for a devcoin seed node.
I'd like to put in a claim for this bounty if it's still running. The node has been running successfully all weekend, and currently has 124 connections. dvcnode.blisteringdevelopers.com:52333 I'm awarding you the ongoing 2/5 of a share bounty for the seed node. Please contact Mark to make sure it's set up properly, he lists the seed nodes on his domain.
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Unthinkingbit
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January 30, 2014, 02:52:45 AM Last edit: January 30, 2014, 03:25:22 AM by Unthinkingbit |
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.. http://opensourceecology.org/Seems like projects like this would be inline with the goals of the coin and bring great exposure. Start small and fund a build of a Power Cube or a loose earth brick layer. The publicity would be great, the builds are open source and already proven. It's for these types of projects that I've invested in the coin. I think they will pair up nicely. The problem is we can't afford to fund hardware yet. Our bounties are small compared to the amount needed to build things, so the hardware bounties we made have either been received complaints or been ignored.
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sidhujag
Legendary
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Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
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January 30, 2014, 02:53:10 AM |
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Bots are generally good as a supplement to trading when the human can descern the market conditions like ranging vs trending. You set different strategies based on the condition..
Yes walllstreet actually have a very high pct of phsycos its a known fact.
The bots that usually are more set and forget are the high volume high frequency trading bots that front run liquodity because the liquidity providers usually offer a last look feature that allows their bots to scalp all day for billions $. If we try to take advantage of the last look you simply get requoted unless your on the in.
I suspect high frequency to start coming in crypto space as liquidity rises and bigger funds want to play.
Ema or any indicator based strategy is best used under guidance and heavily monitored when conditions are changing or a news event occurs.
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sidhujag
Legendary
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Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
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January 30, 2014, 03:00:11 AM |
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.. That's right - I've heard it said that the ratio of psychopaths to normal people are higher in CEO positions than any other profession. I'll bet day-trading wouldn't be far behind...and I actually wrote the bot because I was a terrible fear driven trader lol.
Indeed, CEO is the top profession for psychopaths: http://www.policymic.com/articles/72653/these-are-the-10-most-psychopathic-jobs-in-americahowever, accountants are the tenth least psychopathic profession. What makes a profession fit for psychopaths is not stress, but dishonesty. That's why the list starts with: CEO Lawyer Media Salesperson I don't think daytrading is a good profession for a psychopath because there's nothing to be gained by lying. Its not about lying its about recklessness.. something traders in ny and london thrive in. The more reckless thr better aslong as u dont lose your shirt then your a sucker.. until then keep playing the game.. they use bailout funding and tax payers and peoples retirement/investment funds to play this game so its not even theirs and they are reckless with it. Mayne thats why they dont care.
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dalamar96
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January 30, 2014, 03:04:39 AM |
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I am working on something, but I am not sure it is what you all want since every time I bring it up there are 5 different ideas about what it should be. it is at http://dev-co.in/bounties.php. It isn't anywhere near done yet and I don't have time tonight to work on it more, maybe tomorrow! Ok, so I lied I worked on it a little tonight. You still have to log in with your devtome id if you want to see anything, but tomorrow I will work a little more on the back end and the flow a little more.
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Unthinkingbit
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January 30, 2014, 03:09:55 AM Last edit: January 30, 2014, 03:24:47 AM by Unthinkingbit |
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.. One of my first guides was a guide on Dr.Mundo. This character can fill different roles so the gameplay will be totally different but his native "skills" will remain the same. I was on my way to write the second guide on the same character but I was annoyed that I will have to copy/paste an entire paragraph. So I asked weisoq if some Tag or some code existed to cut off a paragraph from the word count script ! Weisoq answered that it didnt existed yet. He said that I will have to put some links from the original page. I wasn't satisfied with this solution as I want any guide to be a "stand alone" and so to gather the whole information on the same page. So in the end I didn't wrote the second guide at all as it will not be as "reader friendly" as I want. Maybe I will do it later with the actual solution. But i will be happy to copy paste my skill description and cut it off the count if this solution is available some day. ..
Devtome.py now checks for identical sentences, and doesn't add the copies to the word count, only the original sentence is counted. So please copy and paste skill descriptions and everything else. Templates are good. There is no longer a need to use a wiki tag to insert identical paragraphs.
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unclejed613
Newbie
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Activity: 49
Merit: 0
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January 30, 2014, 05:13:15 AM |
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bots may make the trading game interesting for the most part.... the example of what i think may be a bot trading pattern, didn't change the average price, or the overall trend. what i would worry about with a bot, is if somebody comes up with a bot that consistently moves the price up or down on a certain coin, and uses it to gain leverage.... if that were to happen with regular stocks and bonds. it would be illegal....
what it looked like to me on the graph i posted, was a bot doing trades within a very narrow trading range at low volumes, but enough to skim a small percentage off of each trade, which, accordint to the volume graph is probably "small potatoes", but probably a significant margin for the person running the bot.... turning a few hundredths of a DGC into a few tenths of a DGC in the space of two hours. it also may only work on a small scale because of the effects of volume.
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dalamar96
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January 30, 2014, 05:18:14 AM |
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bots may make the trading game interesting for the most part.... the example of what i think may be a bot trading pattern, didn't change the average price, or the overall trend. what i would worry about with a bot, is if somebody comes up with a bot that consistently moves the price up or down on a certain coin, and uses it to gain leverage.... if that were to happen with regular stocks and bonds. it would be illegal....
what it looked like to me on the graph i posted, was a bot doing trades within a very narrow trading range at low volumes, but enough to skim a small percentage off of each trade, which, accordint to the volume graph is probably "small potatoes", but probably a significant margin for the person running the bot.... turning a few hundredths of a DGC into a few tenths of a DGC in the space of two hours. it also may only work on a small scale because of the effects of volume.
Also don't forget the fees
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unclejed613
Newbie
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Activity: 49
Merit: 0
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January 30, 2014, 05:21:23 AM |
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the fees on this exchange (crypto-trade) are 0.2%, so if the trading range for the bot is 1%, the bot still makes 0.6% per cycle( 0.2% up+ 0.2% down would account for the other 0.4%)
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dalamar96
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January 30, 2014, 05:26:33 AM |
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the fees on this exchange (crypto-trade) are 0.2%, so if the trading range for the bot is 1%, the bot still makes 0.6% per cycle( 0.2% up+ 0.2% down would account for the other 0.4%)
oh I know I do it by hand, Mark got me started on it, I haven't taken the time to do a bot yet and really recently it's been kinda level for DVC though it is getting closer to my buy limits Would be nice to see a good bot script open sourced, that wasn't just a shotgun bot. The earlier algo posted looked interesting too, would be nice to see that transformed into Python... So much to do, so little time!
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weisoq
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January 30, 2014, 09:45:52 AM |
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I also have something that may work for all of this, but we will need iterations of testing... whatever dalamar comes up with maybe I can work on adding it to my thing as well.
A private exchange or auction is more complicated. I'd never even heard of a penny auction before discussion here and there seems to be contention, as well as possibly some conflicts of interest between potential users and 'developers'. I'm all for devcoin goods and services, but personally havent got my head around how to make a devcoin exchange work properly. I think more clarity on what people want - stuff or 'work-exchange' or 'open-source work exchange' etc - then how/why a devcoin platform rather than bitcoin or $ would work, is needed. That's why I just suggested a basic official bounty site. If that proves to work out, it should give better idea of dynamics. But that's all just my opinion and doesn't stop anyone else having other views and working on them.
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Hunterbunter
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January 30, 2014, 10:51:24 AM |
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bots may make the trading game interesting for the most part.... the example of what i think may be a bot trading pattern, didn't change the average price, or the overall trend. what i would worry about with a bot, is if somebody comes up with a bot that consistently moves the price up or down on a certain coin, and uses it to gain leverage.... if that were to happen with regular stocks and bonds. it would be illegal....
That's one of the things about bitcoins/crypto's, a lot of normally illegal stuff is fair game here. It's generally unregulated until someone with the power to do anything catches on. The early days was rife with scamming and pyramid schemes and all sorts of things. It wouldn't surprise me if these bots already existed, but at least with bitcoins, it's a lot harder to have the capital reserve to make it work. The other currencies (especially devcoins) would be a bit more vulnerable, although with enough people using markm's shotgun approach even bots will start having a harder time trying to make a profit like that.
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melodiem
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January 30, 2014, 11:17:06 AM |
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bots may make the trading game interesting for the most part.... the example of what i think may be a bot trading pattern, didn't change the average price, or the overall trend. what i would worry about with a bot, is if somebody comes up with a bot that consistently moves the price up or down on a certain coin, and uses it to gain leverage.... if that were to happen with regular stocks and bonds. it would be illegal....
That's one of the things about bitcoins/crypto's, a lot of normally illegal stuff is fair game here. It's generally unregulated until someone with the power to do anything catches on. The early days was rife with scamming and pyramid schemes and all sorts of things. It wouldn't surprise me if these bots already existed, but at least with bitcoins, it's a lot harder to have the capital reserve to make it work. The other currencies (especially devcoins) would be a bit more vulnerable, although with enough people using markm's shotgun approach even bots will start having a harder time trying to make a profit like that. You all make it sound soooo wonderful..... is this just to frighten us newbie's before the payout?
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Hunterbunter
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January 30, 2014, 11:36:44 AM |
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You all make it sound soooo wonderful..... is this just to frighten us newbie's before the payout? Lol sorry...I've just been around cryptos a while...I'm sure it's better now.
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weisoq
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January 30, 2014, 11:54:35 AM |
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I am seriously uncomfortable with the entire thing, to write for Devtome forces me to become a currency trader, something I wouldn't do in any other environment to get paid for my work. I suspect a lot of newcomers are going to be challenged by it as well so a bot would be awesome and might make this just a little less traumatic for some of us I look at it quite differently. Payment is in devcoins, and it's a payment for open source work. Pricing a devcoin is a function of assessing what value you think they bring or add to a world without them. It would be quite possible for an exchange of dvc to flow with less reference to fiat, if price could be efficiently aligned to effort. Devtome and all devcoin payment methods should challenge recipients in realising returns. Price risk and implied value is what ties buyers, users and developers together in shared interest. If for example a bunch of GIMP and mozilla developers were regular devcoin recipients, then I'd know that buying and using dvc contributed to creating and improving stuff I use and value. That in turn adds value to dvc. What those developers do with their dvc is down to them. They could for example, give them to blender developers or hypothetically pay their plumber if he accepted dvc. Defining dvc as only a stepping stone to fiat misses the point. Before recipients received dvc they didn't receive anything, so devcoin doesn't owe them a easy guaranteed fiat return. Realising returns should be a challenge forced upon those people and the contribution of a devcoin economy itself. ...I think though, that real success in trading means actually hoping and even being a bit delighted by fear/negative forces to help with that success. In the end, those who might not be as hard-nosed or cant afford to lose so they react to fear, are always going to be the losers. (IMO) The first step of trading success is generally about having a view - whether that's simple direction, volatility, mean reversion, relative value etc - or any fortune is just luck. But I don't think the average dvc earner needs to be playing the markets. Put simply, if enough people think devcoins are worth more than their price then value will rise, and vice versa. Frankly, nobody worries about the price rising. Worries about price falls by recipients can only be based on a fear that 1) I or others have been overpaid; 2) Other people think we've been overpaid. That means your currency exchange challenge isn't really about trading complications, it's because there's not enough price stability yet. And that's because (crypto speculation aside) payments aren't yet aligned to work value, according to those buying/selling dvc. That needs resolving by growing application and stability, not trading facilitation.
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melodiem
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January 30, 2014, 12:27:43 PM Last edit: January 30, 2014, 12:47:26 PM by melodiem |
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Defining dvc as only a stepping stone to fiat misses the point. Before recipients received dvc they didn't receive anything, so devcoin doesn't owe them a easy guaranteed fiat return. Realising returns should be a challenge forced upon those people and the contribution of a devcoin economy itself.
In the case of developers I totally agree with you, and from what I think I understand, DVC will make a way for that to change and the more activity and interest in DVC, the sooner/faster that will happen? BUT I followed an ad to get here that said "get paid for writing", so I think it is reasonable that people also following that same advertisement (that really is pretty much everywhere) will expect to get paid for their writing. I hope one day they can pay the plumber with DVC, but right now it isn't an option, so the additional challenge only throttles growth of interest and activity. If there was already enough growth and slowing it made sense (it might, is that an inflation issue?) then I would understand why it seems important ALL devtome writers/devcoin community contributors become traders. As it stands, from a simple chicks point of view, Im delighted to see technology on the horizon that might just Keep It Simple But I don't think the average dvc earner needs to be playing the markets. Put simply, if enough people think devcoins are worth more than their price then value will rise, and vice versa.
how long do you see before that will happen? your currency exchange challenge isn't really about trading complications, it's because there's not enough price stability yet.
Not really.. Its the risk, and the lack of knowledge that is the challenge - the language around trading, the websites I have to join (vicurex isnt exactly newbie friendly) then I have to know how to put my stuff up there heck, apparently I can even accidentally put it on the wrong side? and lose the lot in my first moments like other people have. Price stability is the one thing outside my control, that I personally cannot screw up so to be honest, its not my biggest concern. (not that I dont care...just comparatively)
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Flam
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January 30, 2014, 01:11:37 PM |
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.. One of my first guides was a guide on Dr.Mundo. This character can fill different roles so the gameplay will be totally different but his native "skills" will remain the same. I was on my way to write the second guide on the same character but I was annoyed that I will have to copy/paste an entire paragraph. So I asked weisoq if some Tag or some code existed to cut off a paragraph from the word count script ! Weisoq answered that it didnt existed yet. He said that I will have to put some links from the original page. I wasn't satisfied with this solution as I want any guide to be a "stand alone" and so to gather the whole information on the same page. So in the end I didn't wrote the second guide at all as it will not be as "reader friendly" as I want. Maybe I will do it later with the actual solution. But i will be happy to copy paste my skill description and cut it off the count if this solution is available some day. ..
Devtome.py now checks for identical sentences, and doesn't add the copies to the word count, only the original sentence is counted. So please copy and paste skill descriptions and everything else. Templates are good. There is no longer a need to use a wiki tag to insert identical paragraphs. That's even better thanks for this feature.
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weisoq
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January 30, 2014, 01:57:36 PM |
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In the case of developers I totally agree with you... Yes and it's get paid in devcoins, not $. 'In the case of developers...' - this is where I have a fundamental disagreement. It's as much down to writers and perhaps artists and musicians to build interest as it is developers. Writers should be selling their dvc to people who value their writings. Likewise other areas. If interest can't be drummed up then what's the value of their work? The 'challenge' is the core of what devcoin's about. If growth of interest and activity is being throttled it's because those benefitting from dvc aren't catalysing equivalent forward interest. And so they should find realising gains difficult because they don't yet deserve for it to be easy. Yes that's a bit chicken-and-egg but there's so much talk here that seems to ignore the basic issue that in order to pay there have to buyers. You keep referring to 'traders' but I also don't get that point. DVC is obviously global. If you found a job that paid in £ then you'd want to exchange it to A$ at a bank, or turn it down because it's too complicated. It's the same for devcoins. It seems what you mean by 'trading' is risk of losing money compared to what you expected. Well that risk is down to you and every other devcoiner working to support it. If writers in particular find the process difficult then it should be writers who find a way to make it easier and more efficient. how long do you see before that will happen? I have no idea b/c it depends on a growing community doing enough to warrant it, and others not yet involved thinking the same. Not really.. Its the risk, and the lack of knowledge that is the challenge - the language around trading... If you're not that concerned about price stability then why all the talk of of trading risk and prices? A few questions: 1) Did you buy dvc before earning them because you valued the work you saw? 2) Have you bought any since for similar reasons (not speculative)? 3) Have you personally traded your dvc for fiat with others who valued your work specifically? 4) Or to anyone who just appreciated the general concept? You don't have to answer those, it's to make the point that price and sustainability is supported by value. I think there's a really big gulf here between tech and non-tech perceptions of what devcoin is meant to offer that chips away at the foundation of reward for open source work (and I'm not a techie fwiw). That's a moan at the incentive structure that causes it, not you. ----- (You can only sell what you have on vircurex, so can't lose everything and don't need to worry about that).
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