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Author Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread  (Read 532901 times)
Vycid
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June 28, 2013, 03:03:58 PM
 #861

Hey all,

I'm still buying about 7 more ASICMiner-PT put options.

Strike: 2.3 BTC
Exp: ~90 days
Premium: 0.2 BTC


(again, I am buying puts, you would need to write them)

BTCT please. If you decide to list, make sure to send me a PM.

Cheers,

Vycid

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June 28, 2013, 03:59:59 PM
 #862

I'm still buying about 7 more ASICMiner-PT put options.

Strike: 2.3 BTC
Exp: ~90 days
Premium: 0.2 BTC


(again, I am buying puts, you would need to write them)
Pardon my noobness.

You are paying 0.2 BTC to have the right to sell 1 AM share at 2.3 BTC, right?

This means that if AM goes down to 2.3 you'll exercise the put option, and sell the share to whoever issued the option, and this also means that if it doesn't go down to 2.1 you'll have realised a loss.

Did I get it correctly?

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chanson
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June 28, 2013, 05:38:36 PM
 #863

Who cares if AM or BFL was a better investment last year? It has jack to do about the future and purchase decisions today.
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June 28, 2013, 06:19:22 PM
 #864


Multiply the BFL number by 75 and you'll find that in a month from now, the BFLs would have earned at least 75 BTC more than the AM shares. Did you have a point or are just trying to reinforce mine?

A first day Jalapeno will have made more profit than an AM IPO share by the end of the month and you'd still have the Jalapeno, whereas you'd have to sell the AM share.


You really are smoking crack.

A Jalepeno cost 33 BTC if you ordered one early enough to expect delivery before the fall of this year.

Those lucky buyers will never get their 33 BTC back, let alone profit from the device.

check ebyzzle you are beginning to see those BFL items filtering into the market@around ~15 BTC..thanks

HELP ON THE WAY!--->http://www.soldierx.com*_-/\-_"ASICMINER"_-\/-_USB_BLOCK_ERUPTERS_>>*___ 2_BTC___*6/30/2013>>>
_o-\(*)v(*)/-o===>_[]_-P.M.-/or\-E:mail-_[]_>> spacebloomer@yahoo.com ***_+_Blessed!_+_***
>>_"BTCecause It's There" Network_>>: 1Fxbp8KDEME3Rhfo3yp1DABnn2t7VoRAut :<<*Tips jar*
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June 28, 2013, 06:30:48 PM
 #865

I'm still buying about 7 more ASICMiner-PT put options.

Strike: 2.3 BTC
Exp: ~90 days
Premium: 0.2 BTC


(again, I am buying puts, you would need to write them)
Pardon my noobness.

You are paying 0.2 BTC to have the right to sell 1 AM share at 2.3 BTC, right?

This means that if AM goes down to 2.3 you'll exercise the put option, and sell the share to whoever issued the option, and this also means that if it doesn't go down to 2.1 you'll have realised a loss.

Did I get it correctly?



buying covered PUT options is risky because you assume unlimited exposure~if it keeps moving up you are forked ,however if the security drops to zero and is cancelled- MMs(NSS) never are required to buy back and cover the shares..thanks

HELP ON THE WAY!--->http://www.soldierx.com*_-/\-_"ASICMINER"_-\/-_USB_BLOCK_ERUPTERS_>>*___ 2_BTC___*6/30/2013>>>
_o-\(*)v(*)/-o===>_[]_-P.M.-/or\-E:mail-_[]_>> spacebloomer@yahoo.com ***_+_Blessed!_+_***
>>_"BTCecause It's There" Network_>>: 1Fxbp8KDEME3Rhfo3yp1DABnn2t7VoRAut :<<*Tips jar*
Vycid
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June 28, 2013, 07:05:10 PM
 #866

I'm still buying about 7 more ASICMiner-PT put options.

Strike: 2.3 BTC
Exp: ~90 days
Premium: 0.2 BTC


(again, I am buying puts, you would need to write them)
Pardon my noobness.

You are paying 0.2 BTC to have the right to sell 1 AM share at 2.3 BTC, right?

This means that if AM goes down to 2.3 you'll exercise the put option, and sell the share to whoever issued the option, and this also means that if it doesn't go down to 2.1 you'll have realised a loss.

Did I get it correctly?



PUT options are risky because you assume unlimited exposure~if it keeps moving up you are forked ,however if the security drops to zero and is cancelled- MMs(NSS) never are required to buy back and cover the shares..thanks

You have that backwards. You're thinking of uncovered call options.

Lohoris is correct - I'm buying the right to sell at 2.3 for 0.2.

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June 28, 2013, 07:09:58 PM
 #867

I'm still buying about 7 more ASICMiner-PT put options.

Strike: 2.3 BTC
Exp: ~90 days
Premium: 0.2 BTC


(again, I am buying puts, you would need to write them)
Pardon my noobness.

You are paying 0.2 BTC to have the right to sell 1 AM share at 2.3 BTC, right?

This means that if AM goes down to 2.3 you'll exercise the put option, and sell the share to whoever issued the option, and this also means that if it doesn't go down to 2.1 you'll have realised a loss.

Did I get it correctly?






PUT options are risky because you assume unlimited exposure~if it keeps moving up you are forked ,however if the security drops to zero and is cancelled- MMs(NSS) never are required to buy back and cover the shares..thanks

You have that backwards. You're thinking of uncovered call options.

Lohoris is correct - I'm buying the right to sell at 2.3 for 0.2.






i'll bite on any right to sell/\short ANY and ALL shares on these BTC "game" exchanges+offers..thanks

HELP ON THE WAY!--->http://www.soldierx.com*_-/\-_"ASICMINER"_-\/-_USB_BLOCK_ERUPTERS_>>*___ 2_BTC___*6/30/2013>>>
_o-\(*)v(*)/-o===>_[]_-P.M.-/or\-E:mail-_[]_>> spacebloomer@yahoo.com ***_+_Blessed!_+_***
>>_"BTCecause It's There" Network_>>: 1Fxbp8KDEME3Rhfo3yp1DABnn2t7VoRAut :<<*Tips jar*
velacreations
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June 28, 2013, 07:14:53 PM
 #868

Who cares if AM or BFL was a better investment last year? It has jack to do about the future and purchase decisions today.

it does, because one company has credibility, and the other doesn't, based on how they have performed over the past year.  One company is 9 months+ behind in orders, and moving at a snail's pace, while the other company can deliver your hardware in a few weeks.

promises are cheap, but the value is when companies can deliver on their promises.

BFL has failed to meet their own deadlines, their own promises, their own targets time and time again.
AM, on the other hand, has over-delivered and has met targets, one after another.

So, do you really think past performance is irrelevant when it comes to judging future performance?

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chanson
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June 28, 2013, 08:07:51 PM
 #869

Who cares if AM or BFL was a better investment last year? It has jack to do about the future and purchase decisions today.

it does, because one company has credibility, and the other doesn't, based on how they have performed over the past year.  One company is 9 months+ behind in orders, and moving at a snail's pace, while the other company can deliver your hardware in a few weeks.

promises are cheap, but the value is when companies can deliver on their promises.

BFL has failed to meet their own deadlines, their own promises, their own targets time and time again.
AM, on the other hand, has over-delivered and has met targets, one after another.

So, do you really think past performance is irrelevant when it comes to judging future performance?

ASICminer were one of the first to market and did quite well. They built a nice hashing farm and were able to sell devices with quite large markups. But they were pretty much the only clowns in the town. These questions remain:

1. Can anyone else produce ASICs? (yes)

2. Will they put pressure on ASICminer's markups? (yes)

3. Can ASICminer maintain their share of the network? (probably)

4. Can ASICminer maintain the margins of the hardware they sell? (no)

5. Do superior ASICs exist? (yes)

7. Has ASICminer demonstrated an ASIC competitive with what the competition has demonstrated? (no)

8. Can ASICminer produce a more efficient chip without stumbling? (unknown)

ASICminer had a brilliant strategy to get to market first by relying on outdated manufacturing and idle factories. They did that well, but now they need to move to the next stage where the others have been toiling. ASICminer is a good hare, but given how close the tortoises appear to be, ASICminer better not trip.
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June 28, 2013, 08:16:31 PM
 #870

I think asicminer can have huge sales still, their hardware is very cheap in production, so getting 0.4 btc on usb and 4 btc per better smaller blade can give us great dyvidends till october...

Friedcat is smart and will not finish like atari Smiley
Bfl is like sharp.

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June 28, 2013, 08:30:09 PM
 #871

Without hardware sales they already have a substantial mining dividend.

Sure competitors will emerge but it won't be overnight.

There won't be any real competition for several months.  Remember how they were going to blow AM out of the water in March?  April? May?

August, at the earliest, in limited quantities.  But, if you are truly honest, you will know that nothing will be really competing until September/October.

And it so happens, AM will be on gen 2, by then.

10 months delivery or mining with your order are not competitors. Until competition can deliver a product within a week, they are not competition.

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June 28, 2013, 08:33:55 PM
 #872

^+1 Until we see someone else shipping product they are only dreaming.
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June 29, 2013, 03:43:37 AM
 #873

from the other thread:

Happy to contribute to all your dividends.  As shareholders, you'll be happy to know that BTC Guild's initial stock (1,000 USB Block Erupters ordered, 800 available to public sales) sold out in under 40 minutes, and already has over 200 units on backorder.

https://www.btcguild.com/index.php?page=store

I love hardware sales!

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June 29, 2013, 03:52:59 AM
 #874

from the other thread:

Happy to contribute to all your dividends.  As shareholders, you'll be happy to know that BTC Guild's initial stock (1,000 USB Block Erupters ordered, 800 available to public sales) sold out in under 40 minutes, and already has over 200 units on backorder.

https://www.btcguild.com/index.php?page=store

I love hardware sales!

Particularly this bit:

"Availability    Backorder: 1 Week Restock"
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June 29, 2013, 04:12:39 AM
 #875

wow, sold out in 40 minutes.  Dividends are gonna be sweet this week!

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June 29, 2013, 04:16:30 AM
 #876

wow, sold out in 40 minutes.  Dividends are gonna be sweet this week!

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June 29, 2013, 04:23:22 AM
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wow, sold out in 40 minutes.  Dividends are gonna be sweet this week!

Only if they don't ramp back mining again this week.
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June 29, 2013, 10:54:50 AM
 #878

English translation of slides from https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=246253

3.4BTC * 400,000 = 1360,000BTC
> 0.136 billion USD

Q: How much hashing power does Bitfountain plan to deploy within this year?
Friedcat: 800-1000T within this year.

Q: What are the specs of the second batch? When will the mass production begin?
Friedcat: The exact numbers will only be known when the chips are out of fab, currently we only have simulated results. Mass production will be in October the earliest.

Q: What would be the physical address of the offshore company be to registered?
Friedcat: It will be on an island where financial freedom is more possible to achieve.

Q: Do you have plans for future other than mining and selling hardware?
Friedcat: ASICMINER's business is confined within mining and selling mining hardware. We might do some    
periphery work, but that won't be too distant.

Q: What kind of investors or business partners are you keeping in touch with?
Friedcat: We currently don't accept external funds, so there is no private investors. The partners we keep in touch with are mostly tech related.

Q: After the batch shipping from Avalon and BFL, how would the manufacturers in Shenzhen compete with them?
Friedcat: Our advantage to manufacture chips at the cost price is invincible.

Q: Are you hiring? What kind of people do you need?
Friedcat: We need people specialized in analog electronics, but we don't put much hope in finding this kind of people within China.

Q: Any plans or strategies that are suitable for the public to know?
Friedcat: We will be focusing more on the area that we have the most advantage in. It depends on whether we have more advantage in chip design or the ability to deployment fast.

Q: Why the hashing power of AM is not stable?
Friedcat: The variance of solo mining itself is relatively huge. And the whole network is being DDOS'ed lately, the 0.8.3 version of the software has fixed some bugs so as to prevent DDOS.


Discuss irrationally.
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June 29, 2013, 11:03:51 AM
 #879

English translation of slides from https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=246253

3.4BTC * 400,000 = 1360,000BTC
> 0.136 billion USD

Q: How much hashing power does Bitfountain plan to deploy within this year?
Friedcat: 800-1000T within this year.

Q: What are the specs of the second batch? When will the mass production begin?
Friedcat: The exact numbers will only be known when the chips are out of fab, currently we only have simulated results. Mass production will be in October the earliest.

Q: What would be the physical address of the offshore company be to registered?
Friedcat: It will be on an island where financial freedom is more possible to achieve.

Q: Do you have plans for future other than mining and selling hardware?
Friedcat: ASICMINER's business is confined within mining and selling mining hardware. We might do some    
periphery work, but that won't be too distant.

Q: What kind of investors or business partners are you keeping in touch with?
Friedcat: We currently don't accept external funds, so there is no private investors. The partners we keep in touch with are mostly tech related.

Q: After the batch shipping from Avalon and BFL, how would the manufacturers in Shenzhen compete with them?
Friedcat: Our advantage to manufacture chips at the cost price is invincible.

Q: Are you hiring? What kind of people do you need?
Friedcat: We need people specialized in analog electronics, but we don't put much hope in finding this kind of people within China.

Q: Any plans or strategies that are suitable for the public to know?
Friedcat: We will be focusing more on the area that we have the most advantage in. It depends on whether we have more advantage in chip design or the ability to deployment fast.

Q: Why the hashing power of AM is not stable?
Friedcat: The variance of solo mining itself is relatively huge. And the whole network is being DDOS'ed lately, the 0.8.3 version of the software has fixed some bugs so as to prevent DDOS.


Discuss irrationally.

Waits on the official confirmation also to see if friedfish is friedcat in Chinese Smiley

PLUS any release information from the shanghai event if their is something else that qualifies as new information

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June 29, 2013, 11:09:55 AM
 #880

English translation of slides from https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=246253

3.4BTC * 400,000 = 1360,000BTC
> 0.136 billion USD

Q: How much hashing power does Bitfountain plan to deploy within this year?
Friedcat: 800-1000T within this year.

Q: What are the specs of the second batch? When will the mass production begin?
Friedcat: The exact numbers will only be known when the chips are out of fab, currently we only have simulated results. Mass production will be in October the earliest.

Q: What would be the physical address of the offshore company be to registered?
Friedcat: It will be on an island where financial freedom is more possible to achieve.

Q: Do you have plans for future other than mining and selling hardware?
Friedcat: ASICMINER's business is confined within mining and selling mining hardware. We might do some    
periphery work, but that won't be too distant.

Q: What kind of investors or business partners are you keeping in touch with?
Friedcat: We currently don't accept external funds, so there is no private investors. The partners we keep in touch with are mostly tech related.

Q: After the batch shipping from Avalon and BFL, how would the manufacturers in Shenzhen compete with them?
Friedcat: Our advantage to manufacture chips at the cost price is invincible.

Q: Are you hiring? What kind of people do you need?
Friedcat: We need people specialized in analog electronics, but we don't put much hope in finding this kind of people within China.

Q: Any plans or strategies that are suitable for the public to know?
Friedcat: We will be focusing more on the area that we have the most advantage in. It depends on whether we have more advantage in chip design or the ability to deployment fast.

Q: Why the hashing power of AM is not stable?
Friedcat: The variance of solo mining itself is relatively huge. And the whole network is being DDOS'ed lately, the 0.8.3 version of the software has fixed some bugs so as to prevent DDOS.


Discuss irrationally.

Waits on the official confirmation also to see if friedfish is friedcat in Chinese Smiley

PLUS any release information from the shanghai event if their is something else that qualifies as new information

He said discuss IRRATIONALLY. Your rationality is unwelcome here! (tic)

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