ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[blackreplica]

Lophie,

Based on tracking the AM price the last month, it seems buyers and holders of AM stock are now comfortable with a 25% dividend yield with some additives or subtractions for forward earnings potential.

With dividend around 0.024 holding steady, and a safe bet to expect going forward, this yield supports a fair valuation of 4.992 btc per share. Thats not too far away from where we are now.

If we use the average of the last 4 dividends (0.02275) to refine the estimates, fair valuation sits just above 4.7. Until the recent flash crash thats exactly where the share price has been

As AM continues to (hopefully) deliver higher dividends, and investor confidence grows thereby supporting lower acceptable dividend yields given the added feeling of security holding AM shares , we can expect this to support even higher share prices than what we're seeing now.

For now i personally value AM between 4.2-5btc per share. Anything below this range is a great buy, anything above is overvalued. If investor risk tolerance goes up and/or dividends hold at an average 0.03 (i consider this combination as a reasonable 'absolute best case scenario' without exuberance) i'd shift valuation to somewhere between 6-7 btc per share. Thats a solid 20-30% possible capital gain on current prices whilst generating a yield that will almost 'pay off' the total invested capital before the next block reward halving. Barring AM dropping the ball on keeping up with the competition or a severe depression in btc/usd i expect buying pressure to continue

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[Lohoris]

I guess the price crash on BTCT answers my question...

Ooh, that's why someone liquidated their BITVPS position too, I was wondering...

[Lohoris]

how do people think the recent burnside discussion about closing BTCT to US investors will affect the price of AM?

Wait a minute, where did this discussion happen?

[freedomno1]

how do people think the recent burnside discussion about closing BTCT to US investors will affect the price of AM?

Wait a minute, where did this discussion happen?

Pretty recently been a fun day watching it haha no real starting point
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=261235

Also he will not be closing it mumble and the main AM thread has a bit of discussion as well

I think the AM price had it's drop already but the real movement was in Basic wish my btc was around btct then 0.13
The yield is a lot higher than Cognitive now and with their mining its still not bad but still 0.13 lol

[lophie]

Lophie,

Based on tracking the AM price the last month, it seems buyers and holders of AM stock are now comfortable with a 25% dividend yield with some additives or subtractions for forward earnings potential.

With dividend around 0.024 holding steady, and a safe bet to expect going forward, this yield supports a fair valuation of 4.992 btc per share. Thats not too far away from where we are now.

If we use the average of the last 4 dividends (0.02275) to refine the estimates, fair valuation sits just above 4.7. Until the recent flash crash thats exactly where the share price has been

As AM continues to (hopefully) deliver higher dividends, and investor confidence grows thereby supporting lower acceptable dividend yields given the added feeling of security holding AM shares , we can expect this to support even higher share prices than what we're seeing now.

For now i personally value AM between 4.2-5btc per share. Anything below this range is a great buy, anything above is overvalued. If investor risk tolerance goes up and/or dividends hold at an average 0.03 (i consider this combination as a reasonable 'absolute best case scenario' without exuberance) i'd shift valuation to somewhere between 6-7 btc per share. Thats a solid 20-30% possible capital gain on current prices whilst generating a yield that will almost 'pay off' the total invested capital before the next block reward halving. Barring AM dropping the ball on keeping up with the competition or a severe depression in btc/usd i expect buying pressure to continue

hmm, Thanks this makes alot of sense. But still something smells fishy..... anyways not planning on selling my position in AM anytime soon. Just sold a few shares for financial reasons.

[BitAddict]

Lophie,

Based on tracking the AM price the last month, it seems buyers and holders of AM stock are now comfortable with a 25% dividend yield with some additives or subtractions for forward earnings potential.

With dividend around 0.024 holding steady, and a safe bet to expect going forward, this yield supports a fair valuation of 4.992 btc per share. Thats not too far away from where we are now.

If we use the average of the last 4 dividends (0.02275) to refine the estimates, fair valuation sits just above 4.7. Until the recent flash crash thats exactly where the share price has been

As AM continues to (hopefully) deliver higher dividends, and investor confidence grows thereby supporting lower acceptable dividend yields given the added feeling of security holding AM shares , we can expect this to support even higher share prices than what we're seeing now.

For now i personally value AM between 4.2-5btc per share. Anything below this range is a great buy, anything above is overvalued. If investor risk tolerance goes up and/or dividends hold at an average 0.03 (i consider this combination as a reasonable 'absolute best case scenario' without exuberance) i'd shift valuation to somewhere between 6-7 btc per share. Thats a solid 20-30% possible capital gain on current prices whilst generating a yield that will almost 'pay off' the total invested capital before the next block reward halving. Barring AM dropping the ball on keeping up with the competition or a severe depression in btc/usd i expect buying pressure to continue

I did exactly the same math, so we think exactly the same

[velacreations]

share price drifting down a bit, I guess it's just post-dividend, pre-announcement slump.

[Ninshatamoto]

share price drifting down a bit, I guess it's just post-dividend, pre-announcement slump.

Yea, not enjoying this week as I took my position a little high.  Not that I'm concerned about the long term, but I do enjoy my passthrough daytrading.

[dhenson]

share price drifting down a bit, I guess it's just post-dividend, pre-announcement slump.

I've been watching the realtime trade monitor on btct.co.  It's actually been from people selling their ASICMINER-PT shares and TAT-ASICMINER shares and then immediately purchasing another security.

[TsuyokuNaritai]

share price drifting down a bit, I guess it's just post-dividend, pre-announcement slump.

I've been watching the realtime trade monitor on btct.co.  It's actually been from people selling their ASICMINER-PT shares and TAT-ASICMINER shares and then immediately purchasing another security.

Any security in particular?

Please don't say ActiveMining!

[dhenson]

share price drifting down a bit, I guess it's just post-dividend, pre-announcement slump.

I've been watching the realtime trade monitor on btct.co.  It's actually been from people selling their ASICMINER-PT shares and TAT-ASICMINER shares and then immediately purchasing another security.

Any security in particular?

Please don't say ActiveMining!

I purposefully didn't, though that doesn't make it not true.

[Birdy]

I purposefully didn't, though that doesn't make it not true.

I've seen that they made some structure changes and the shares aren't as bad as they were before.
Still I don't get why people are buying that much now, the awful management at the start of the shares made me quite wary of them.

[dhenson]

I purposefully didn't, though that doesn't make it not true.

I've seen that they made some structure changes and the shares aren't as bad as they were before.
Still I don't get why people are buying that much now, the mismanaging at the start made me quite wary of them.

[off topic]
I'm only answering because you asked, but this is way off topic and doesn't belong in this thread.

They are basically an AM clone (business structure wise) now with 62.5 x the number of shares.  The big news is that they are in the process of paying their NRE for their 28nm chips.  Everyone thought they were a scam and would run off with the NRE funds, but as that isn't happening the risk baked into their share price is now burning off.

Now back to the AM discussion at hand...
[/off topic]

[Birdy]

[off topic]
I'm only answering because you asked, but this is way off topic and doesn't belong in this thread.

They are basically an AM clone (business structure wise) now with 62.5 x the number of shares.  The big news is that they are in the process of paying their NRE for their 28nm chips.  Everyone thought they were a scam and would run off with the NRE funds, but as that isn't happening the risk baked into their share price is now burning off.

Now back to the AM discussion at hand...
[/off topic]

Okey, thanks.
As someone who warned about AMC, I would be glad to be wrong.
Less scam and more successful businesses are always welcome in the Bitcoinland.

[freedomno1]

Well I bought a bit just to ride it but my mainstay is AM lol

[Mabsark]

AM prices are plummeting and ActM prices are going through the roof. There must be some major migrations going on there.

[freedomno1]

It's interesting to say the least I'm not so sound on the fundamentals but perhaps the market is reacting as a counterbalance to AM by putting it in Activemining or trying to make a second competitor a reality.

 (Note shares were all bought already what the speculators do does not increase capital XD)

EDIT IN: Our criticism worked looking back at the time machine moved from my observing list to tenative penetration for now.

Investors judge your investments before penetrating if you remember the last time AMC got mentioned here it was not a pretty sight.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=254930.0;topicseen

So time for some real speculation (tentative term).

With a competitor possibly penetrating the monopoly and the confirmation data looking fairly possible;
While factoring for Friedcats hashing announcement and leasing of excess capacity;
With a significant production increases coming around the same time;
With a boost in hashing power;
And factoring the ETA's on the competitors,
What do you think will happen .

[freedomno1]

So time for some real speculation (tentative term) with a competitor possibly penetrating the monopoly and the confirmation data looking fairly possible to occur while factoring for Friedcats hashing announcement and leasing of excess capacity with a significant production increase coming around the same time with a boost in hashing power and the ETA's on the competitors what do you think will happen

  Is that a sentence? BREATHE! punctuate once in a while, or my head might explode trying to read your post 

Goes to add some commas and maybe A . XD

[LordMeowMeow]

What's up with the selling on bitfunder? Is it mostly attributable to people shifting from AM to ACTM? I don't see any of the fundamentals being different in AM unless this showing the dividend will be 0.014 next: http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/

edit: someone else asked the same a few days ago, sorry.

[gog1]

mining is a zero sum game.  no difference between you stumbling or your competitors catching up.