Analysis

[RyNinDaCleM]

The bad analisis and the Reality......

Dave... Dave... Dave...
Don't you pay attention? Of course not... You are a troll! The context is right there in the post you quoted but managed to snip out to make your case seem more justified. This post https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg12462173#msg12462173 contains a quote from this post https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg11887151#msg11887151 which was posted earlier in July and has a target of what's that? Around 600 or so? No shit!
Since you bulls were weak little sissy girls (still are, really), I made that white chart as a sort of "Right now" outlook if the larger B never came to fruition and that $315 high was all you could muster. Now it is FINALLY materializing, and my outlook still isn't changing. My view remains that this is still the same suckers rally in a larger bear market. Now, it may not get to $73, but it will go down again. When it does, do I get to scour your post history for "great" calls? Nah, I wouldn't do that. I'm bigger than that and have more productive things to do with my time.

We'll see who has the last laugh though.
Don't claim victory in a battle you haven't yet won.

[btc4lifer]

Don't claim victory in a battle you haven't yet won.

* btc4lifer watches RyNinDaCleM drop the mic and walk out of the room

[tabnloz]

I decline to analze this. The multi year Great 3 has been started.

Don't know nothing about TA, but thought I'd give the masters thread a bump.

Let's hope this is the multi year...

[hdbuck]

from: https://btctrading.wordpress.com/2016/06/12/long-term-update-static-resistance/


Long Term update: Static Resistance



This is a simple monthly chart since Jan.2012, important facts are:

- Accumulation zone #2 is above previous one, #1 in the chart
- The static resistance at $680 is also the 50% of the price swing from the all time high down to the 2015 bottom at ~$150

As i explained in past updates the midpoint or 50% it is one of the strongest and most important resistance/support level. The main trend is obviously up (at least so far) because the low around point 2 in the chart is above point 1 thus is legit to expect a new all time high if this market can break above the $680 static resistance.

Furthermore the fact that the two accumulation zones highlighted in the chart never overlap tell us that the underline long term trend is very strong and because of this i expect a new all time high in case of a strong breakout above $680.


Forecasting resistances



This is a template i use for long term analysis with metatrader 4 platform, first i compute a price regression with 12 or 24 bars/months with a monthly chart then i compute supports and resistances. Dotted lines represents supports/resistances using the recent volatility of XBTUSD, non-dotted lines are levels computed using twice the value of recent bitcoin volatility.

We are exactly at the resistance and this is very interesting because in 1-2 months we will see if bitcoin long term trend is still up or not.

I have taken in account the log-normal distribution of price otherwise i’d have had very bad results in computing the levels, usually it is not required but when prices movements are so high you have to. What does it mean? It’s simple, before doing any calculation first compute the natural log of the price, do your stuff and last reexponentiate the data to have back the price chart with a linear scale.

This is why i do not recommend to use standard bollinger bands with bitcoin on a long term chart, you would have bad results, sometimes with the lower bollinger band going negative! clearly unrealistic.


~LUCIF I SUMMON YOU! COME AND HOLD OUR HANDS IN THE REKKAGE OF THE ATH!

[sandiman]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1498855.0

here are some explanations about the last accumulation phase.

[masterluc]

Hello. Some fractals and extrapolation. Good bye.

[podyx]

Looks good enough

In touch with my 7-8k prediction

[Hunyadi]

Hello. Some fractals and extrapolation. Good bye.

Nice to see you here!

[megadeth]

Luc's back.

[Fatman3001]

Hello. Some fractals and extrapolation. Good bye.

Hi Luc! Please tell me I'm gonna be rich.

Eh.. How does this work? Do I have to rub you or something?

[600watt]

Hi Luc! Please tell me I'm gonna be rich.

Eh.. How does this work? Do I have to rub you or something?

rub your local bircoin atm. it works.

edit: bitcoin 

[klee]

Hi Luc! Please tell me I'm gonna be rich.

Eh.. How does this work? Do I have to rub you or something?

rub your local bircoin atm. it works.

Beercoin?

[oda.krell]

Happy to see you again, luc. Glad to see you're enthusiastic! To me it looks like a correction is in place first however.

Looks like price could hit $650 to $640 over the next days. As long as it finds support there, that would still allow for a continuation of the rally afterwards (so it's not necessarily incompatible with your prediction).

Anyway, since I don't use EW, the only thing I do is (haphazardly) extrapolate from simple patterns over some low-pass filters I like and track, which is more reactive than predictive usually. In other words: I know precious little about the bigger picture :D

[wlefever]

Welp, that about settles it. Strap in from here boys! New ATH ahead. BTC

[600watt]

Beercoin?
[/quote]

proof of booze algo.

[jaredboice]

The bad analisis and the Reality......

Dave... Dave... Dave...
Don't you pay attention? Of course not... You are a troll! The context is right there in the post you quoted but managed to snip out to make your case seem more justified. This post https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg12462173#msg12462173 contains a quote from this post https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg11887151#msg11887151 which was posted earlier in July and has a target of what's that? Around 600 or so? No shit!
Since you bulls were weak little sissy girls (still are, really), I made that white chart as a sort of "Right now" outlook if the larger B never came to fruition and that $315 high was all you could muster. Now it is FINALLY materializing, and my outlook still isn't changing. My view remains that this is still the same suckers rally in a larger bear market. Now, it may not get to $73, but it will go down again. When it does, do I get to scour your post history for "great" calls? Nah, I wouldn't do that. I'm bigger than that and have more productive things to do with my time.

We'll see who has the last laugh though.
Don't claim victory in a battle you haven't yet won.

Shorting since June 3rd (and probably far prior according to his Bearish Sentiment Signature) has done a lot of good for RyNinDaCleM   

[marcus_of_augustus]

Does this have the marking of a "super bubble," taking us into low 6 digit territory by 2017? Or, just a one-off event?

I'm interpretting that masterluc thinks we are at a similar place as early in the April 2013 run which went  from ~$15 to $266 ... i.e. x17. So beginning at $420 x17 ~ $7k ... and maybe another mega run  (x5 ~ $32k) after that as per Nov. '13 sometime later, say Jan. '17??

[ft73]

742$ now. Feeling healthy correction towards (at least) 650$ is incoming.
I was wrong MANY times though

[sandiman]

742$ now. Feeling healthy correction towards (at least) 650$ is incoming.
I was wrong MANY times though

I think we may try 800$ before that.

[masterluc]

Daily sma20 hit (650) - good point to get into.