Analysis

[Tzupy]

IMO a correction down to 420$ could invalidate the bullish scenario, so permabulls better hope it stops at 480$.

How 62% retracement of $190 -> $800 move could invalidate something?

The first correction was about 30%. A new correction, from 700$ to 420$, would be 40%, and would increase the chances of a weak rebound and a third leg down.
Assuming this was a wave 3 and now we have a 4, it should stay mostly above 1 (475$). If it drops to 420$, then this might have been THE B wave and we could see a final bottom close to 100$.
But for now I see little reason for the doom scenario, the Chinese manipulators can make more money pumping than dumping. So I expect another 30%, from 700$ to 490$.

[1714144792]

1714144792

[Chainsaw]

Greatly appreciating ingesting the three unique, well-thought-out positions - thanks.

[sandiman]

IMO a correction down to 420$ could invalidate the bullish scenario, so permabulls better hope it stops at 480$.

How 62% retracement of $190 -> $800 move could invalidate something?

img]https://www.tradingview.com/x/34G6zC2F/[/img]

The first correction was about 30%. A new correction, from 700$ to 420$, would be 40%, and would increase the chances of a weak rebound and a third leg down.
Assuming this was a wave 3 and now we have a 4, it should stay mostly above 1 (475$). If it drops to 420$, then this might have been THE B wave and we could see a final bottom close to 100$.
But for now I see little reason for the doom scenario, the Chinese manipulators can make more money pumping than dumping. So I expect another 30%, from 700$ to 490$.

How can you speak about elliot waves and then jump on "chinese manipulation". Elliot was is about crowd psychology to be short, and directly tied to natural laws. You can't be succesful using elliot waves if you don't even understand the core of it...

According to this count:


The weekly sma20 is gonna be revisited first.

img]https://www.tradingview.com/x/b5sdS9uw/[/img]

MasterLuc, I had a very similar count, but then a community member (same as usual) highlighted an issue with it. how can you count five waves in the i waves without breaking overlap rule firstly, and also without making the third wave the shortest??? I tried very hard to do so, but rules were consistently broken...

[btc4lifer]

MasterLuc, I had a very similar count, but then a community member (same as usual) highlighted an issue with it. how can you count five waves in the i waves without breaking overlap rule firstly, and also without making the third wave the shortest??? I tried very hard to do so, but rules were consistently broken...

This definitely deserves an answer. I second the question.

[masterluc]

MasterLuc, I had a very similar count, but then a community member (same as usual) highlighted an issue with it. how can you count five waves in the i waves without breaking overlap rule firstly, and also without making the third wave the shortest??? I tried very hard to do so, but rules were consistently broken...

I dont see overlaps and 3rd shortest in my count

[CryptoLenin]

What is the count for wave i from the bottom of 150 (mean subwaves)? Also strange proportions in subwaves of wave iii, wave 2 looks kind a small one in it and 4 is giant.

[jeezy]

Current target around 550. Then flat for some time. Late Q3 early Q4 next movement. Guessing up to break last peak.

[sandiman]

MasterLuc, I had a very similar count, but then a community member (same as usual) highlighted an issue with it. how can you count five waves in the i waves without breaking overlap rule firstly, and also without making the third wave the shortest??? I tried very hard to do so, but rules were consistently broken...

I dont see overlaps and 3rd shortest in my count

I really don't know how you counted, only the first daily candle ruins all my counts:



Just a newbie trying to learn from approved members   maybe you just didn't start your count from there, but then my corrective count from last 1200$ pump is also wrong  

[notme]

MasterLuc, I had a very similar count, but then a community member (same as usual) highlighted an issue with it. how can you count five waves in the i waves without breaking overlap rule firstly, and also without making the third wave the shortest??? I tried very hard to do so, but rules were consistently broken...

I dont see overlaps and 3rd shortest in my count

I really don't know how you counted, only the first daily candle ruins all my counts:



Just a newbie trying to learn from approved members   maybe you just didn't start your count from there, but then my corrective count from last 1200$ pump is also wrong  

Wave i didn't start until June.  Before that was part of an extended correction.  Such things happen when price goes as wild as it tends to do in Bitcoin.

[jehst]

So you guys think we are entering another 6 month consolidation period?

Kill me now.

[notme]

So you guys think we are entering another 6 month consolidation period?

Kill me now.

Seeing as how we've been rallying for a year it is not unreasonable.  But this market is so tiny it could moon at any time.  Dollar cost averaging into a long position is still the best way to play this market.  If you follow that strategy, a consolidation period before the next run up should be a welcome turn of events.  If you are overleveraged, I'm sorry.  There's a good chance you will have an opportunity to sell higher than now, but don't be surprised if it doesn't happen for a month or more.  If you want to trade this market make sure to watch the daily/weekly charts, not the 15 minute charts.  Patience wins this game.  Emotion will wreck you.

[masterluc]

most patient will be winner

[podyx]

most patient will be winner

Pretty sure that the bulls are the most patient. They've been waiting for 2-3 years for this shit

[sandiman]

most patient will be winner

Pretty sure that the bulls are the most patient. They've been waiting for 2-3 years for this shit

How can you be so sure ? maybe the bears are still waiting for their shit 

Wave i didn't start until June.  Before that was part of an extended correction.  Such things happen when price goes as wild as it tends to do in Bitcoin.

So here was my prior count :



Shall I extend my 3rd waves of C of (Y) and make a truncated fifth? or a triple three ? I don't know which one is accurate and will go with volume and strengh of the market at that time (market clearly capitulated on what i've got as the fifth waves here, but if I go for the truncated fifth, it would be the third and thus go with what the book says ).

You don't have to answer that if you don't have time, just a newbie learning EW and being confronted to a clear example of how hard corrective waves can be to count.

[Bavaria]

most patient will be winner

Masterluc`s message can be interpreted as: hodl your coins! 

[BldSwtTrs]

6 month consolidation

Kill me now.

[Odalv]

most patient will be winner

I'm glad I bought at $330 ... I do not have to be patient :-)

[smoothie]

most patient will be winner

I'm glad I bought at $330 ... I do not have to be patient :-)

i like being impatiently patient.

Interesting second half of this year incoming...

[jehst]

He's not the only one who bought at under $300 or less...

I still found 6 months of $420-440 to be extremely boring...

[jeezy]

Strange patterns forming right now. Might be due to "the halving". Maybe we wont see a consolidation till December after all.