rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[chessnut]

so down trend setting in for the night...... what is there to hold back the price other than 430 lvl? from a TA perspective, the 430 lvl is weak.... very little price history in that area.

Ill say again, it simply wouldn't surprise me if we pass 430.... waves often diverge like that after capitulation. the bottom needs time, and the market is timid, and the down trend remains intact.

but also looking out for the unexpected interception forming H&S bottom....

Never interrupt your enemy while he is making a mistake......

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[MatTheCat]

so down trend setting in for the night...... what is there to hold back the price other than 430 lvl? from a TA perspective, the 430 lvl is weak.... very little price history in that area.

Ill say again, it simply wouldn't surprise me if we pass 430.... waves often diverge like that after capitulation. the bottom needs time, and the market is timid, and the down trend remains intact.

but also looking out for the unexpected interception forming H&S bottom....

Never interrupt your enemy while he is making a mistake......

My TA 101 tells me we are on course for a potential $460-$480 bottom. But no further than that.

[creekbore]

@MattheCat, @TERA,
As I said I don't think you understand world time zones:
1. China is straddles 5 time zones but actually only has one official time - Beijing time.
2. The times I quoted were (where possible) referring to my time zone -- so when its 6am for me it's early afternoon for the West coast of US.
3. Look at the volume charts over the last year, Bitcoin trading shifted its hours dramatically after teh Chinese involvement and is only realigning (see Jorge's slumber methods also)  (TERA you should know this since you've been around since Feb/March last year).

I'd provide some chart evidence but I'm on holiday....so   

But please don't give me that "gosh, folk in the East have it easy"....try trading on GST +10 and get back to me.

[creekbore]

I've done some market analysis and decided that 575 is a fair price for bitcoin as of now. It is now -0.114 below the trendline. During the slump last summer, starting from the capitulation low and ending the day when daily average ATH was broken (122 days by the way), we were on average -0.251 below the trend. If we stay at this price until April 13, 2014, we will reach -0.251. This is regard as realistic. There is no need to go down, the trendline is going up and takes care that we will sink further below trendline as is predicted by the model.

I see the possibility for a further low below 400 as slim at the moment. If further flashcrashes occur, my target for the low point is 450-500.

The capitulation happened already. If you did not feel it, the reason is that here in the oldtimer threads in Bitcointalk people knew what was coming and were not afraid. Outside, people and media and newbies were, and still are, asking if Bitcoin is dead. There was blood on the streets. Don't expect that it will turn worse. It cannot. It can only go up from here.

There is no need to be hasty with purchases. Bitcoin is not going down, but neither is it going up. The trendline logistics prevent it from rising, and I would see 700 as a shorting price if I was in the intention to gamble now. In reality I just transferred the overmajority of my trading capital to cold wallets. If you want to buy now, bidding 500-550 is probably enough.

It is frivolous to think that history could exactly predict future, but because Bitcoin behaves self-similarly like a fractal, and because my past predictions based on this method have been quite amazingly correct, let's just calculate the day when ATH will be taken: June 27, 2014.

From there, it will likely take only 30 days to make a new ATH that will last several months.

Unless the Chasm interrupts the underlying, 5-year old growth paradigm in a way that nothing in Bitcoin's history has yet been able to do.

Risto, greetings from sunny and stunning New Zealand: another quality post mate ...thanks for confirming my own thoughts with regard to both our current situation and the medium term direction....although there's going to be a lot of MSM attention in the forthcoming months that will drive many smaller or less-informed investors away and despite what many here believe, sentiment will have an impact.

But every day we remain above 500 is another day the foundations firm - and the level of projects coming to fruition at present suggests BTC will (as always prove highly resilient) ride this storm to emerge from 'beta' much stronger with a far different eco-system around it. 

The herd will join again but only when they have been convinced the waters are safe and the crocodiles have been banished.

[TERA]

risto still feeling good about your call?

i see a problem with your trend line strategy. while i follow a support trend line, you follow an averaging trend line. the averaging trend line actually changes in slope and position as time goes on. also prices have actually gone BELOW the trend line for extended periods of time, and i think you may be ignoring that opportunity.

[MatTheCat]

risto still feeling good about your call?

i see a problem with your trend line strategy. while i follow a support trend line, you follow an averaging trend line. the averaging trend line actually changes in slope and position as time goes on. also prices have actually gone BELOW the trend line for extended periods of time, and i think you may be ignoring that opportunity.

Now that $550 support is broke, and their are all those tens of thousands of bag holder coin ($550 resistance was broke with 6K of purchses just to get to $560), unless some completely out of the ordinary stint of trending comes into play, Bitcoin is going well into $400 range.

My prediction earlier was $460 - $ 480.

I will stick with that.

Earlier this evening, I also recommended shorting at $778...quite a nice trade for anyone who took it (I did at $775) and will most likely be good to leave accumulating for a good few 4hr 'dripping with blood' candlesticks yet.

[seleme]

Mat just can't forget 700's 

[chessnut]

there are 100k coins stolen from silkroad #2, 144k coins with the FBI, and now possibly 750k coins loose from Mt Gox in circulation. we need to remember that the potential supply to the market could be very large and unpredictable. the top dogs in this market are holding BTC, not fiat, and if the large fiat players are not stepping in now, we should not be surprised by further downside.

This morning there was a 1k sell wall on BTCe @ 560. Im not a believer in fake walls. the bidding that has begun could go far tonight, and Huobi and stamp are leading the way.

EDIT: we have an uncertain support from fiat holders, and a severely unknown supply from BTC holders. my point is that, at best, what will come in the next weeks and months will be unpredictable, although the monthly trend is down.

[rpietila]

risto still feeling good about your call?

i see a problem with your trend line strategy. while i follow a support trend line, you follow an averaging trend line. the averaging trend line actually changes in slope and position as time goes on. also prices have actually gone BELOW the trend line for extended periods of time, and i think you may be ignoring that opportunity.

Greetings from Malla,

No, I am not ignoring anything, thank you for your concerns.

[TERA]

I guess I should have just listened to Risto when he was shouting BUY BUY BUY at me at $480 and went all in, and went in cold storage, and been finished with trading. Why do I overcomplicate everything.

[seleme]

I have a feeling it's rpietila and his gang that are doing these walls.

[MatTheCat]

I guess I should have just listened to Risto when he was shouting BUY BUY BUY at me at $480 and went all in, and went in cold storage, and been finished with trading. Why do I overcomplicate everything.

Because he is operating of a 200 day MA theory and and exponential average line.

It is more complicated than that and the fact that it is all working out nicely to that theory for now doesn't mean it always will do.

However, I smell potential CCMF here. Bitstamp was doing fuck all. And then these massive ramps, the majority coming from just one account, possibly all of them coming from just one account. They happened during Eastern European office hours. Someone taking precautions due to Ukraine conflict?

Keep an eye on 610. If Bitcoin fails to breach and hold above there, then we could simply be at the maxed out stage of a 610-530 post crash flag formation, in which case buying would be a terrible thing to do at this point in time. but if that is taken out.........then it could be BOOOM TIME!

P.S. I also bought in at $480....sold at $550, 2 seconds before 6K of BTC purchasing took Bitcoin to $570.

[hdbuck]

I guess I should have just listened to Risto when he was shouting BUY BUY BUY at me at $480 and went all in, and went in cold storage, and been finished with trading. Why do I overcomplicate everything.

Because he is operating of a 200 day MA theory and and exponential average line.

It is more complicated than that and the fact that it is all working out nicely to that theory for now doesn't mean it always will do.

However, I smell potential CCMF here. Bitstamp was doing fuck all. And then these massive ramps, the majority coming from just one account, possibly all of them coming from just one account. They happened during Eastern European office hours. Someone taking precautions due to Ukraine conflict?

Keep an eye on 610. If Bitcoin fails to breach and hold above there, then we could simply be at the maxed out stage of a 610-530 post crash flag formation, in which case buying would be a terrible thing to do at this point in time. but if that is taken out.........then it could be BOOOM TIME!

P.S. I also bought in at $480....sold at $550, 2 seconds before 6K of BTC purchasing took Bitcoin to $570.

exactly the same here
what do we do what do we do?? 

[seleme]

I sold nice first time, some 575-580 average. But today I was doing 30 seconds wrong timed trades all the way since these walls started to appear. I sell, he appears. It gets eaten, I sell, another one back in a minute. And so on..

I bought lot in 610-620 range now, wouldn't be shocked if I get burnt here, there's still barely any support beside whale's walls..

[merkin51]

I refuse to believe that one whales manipulation like this can reverse the trend completely... we need to see much more than this, surely? I'm holding off.

[hdbuck]

I refuse to believe that one whales manipulation like this can reverse the trend completely... we need to see much more than this, surely? I'm holding off.

at this point its not much about reversing the downtrend. its more about how far that son of a whale is going to push to price up. (meaning profit opportunity for us little followers)

[merkin51]

I refuse to believe that one whales manipulation like this can reverse the trend completely... we need to see much more than this, surely? I'm holding off.

at this point its not much about reversing the downtrend. its more about how far that son of a whale is going to push to price up. (meaning profit opportunity for us little followers)

I appreciate that, but it seems to me the only opportunity it presents is whilst the whale is still active. Even now he's gone, it's going down. Certainly doesn't make the whole thing "bullish" to me.

[doctor877]

Is it the newcomers after the massive media coverage of the gox incident?

[njcarlos]

Is it the newcomers after the massive media coverage of the gox incident?

New comers from the bankruptcy of "one of the biggest and oldest" exchanges, and theft of millions of USD worth of BTC?

[ErisDiscordia]

However, I smell potential CCMF here. Bitstamp was doing fuck all. And then these massive ramps, the majority coming from just one account, possibly all of them coming from just one account. They happened during Eastern European office hours. Someone taking precautions due to Ukraine conflict?

Please excuse my ignorance but how can you tell that certain buys/sells are coming from the same account?