rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[xxnewbiecoinerxx]

Want to bet for a box of cigars that it won't go below $500 this year? ( edit: Mt.Gox price )

This year? If it isnt going below this year, then probably it never is.

[TERA]

Want to bet for a box of cigars that it won't go below $500 this year? ( edit: Mt.Gox price )

This year? If it isnt going below this year, then probably it never is.

Excluding the inevitable crash to $0 of course.

[notme]

Want to bet for a box of cigars that it won't go below $500 this year? ( edit: Mt.Gox price )

This year? If it isnt going below this year, then probably it never is.

It's hard to collect on a bet against "never".

[hyphymikey]

Want to bet for a box of cigars that it won't go below $500 this year? ( edit: Mt.Gox price )

Do you get cigars for free? Or do you just like wasting money? lol

[DieJohnny]

Want to bet for a box of cigars that it won't go below $500 this year? ( edit: Mt.Gox price )

Uhhh... rpietila might have more coins by morning...

[traderCJ]

Hey rpietila. How is your sale in the 600s doing? Do you still intend to turn a profit on it?

Either way I make a profit. If it goes to 400, I make more coins, if it doesn't, I make more dollars.*

*Compared to the average dishoarding schedule.


Besides I already made that dip by selling 900, buying back 500. Everything else is extra.

Oh brother    By your argument, there is no unprofitable trade because you can just wait for the price to move in your favor over an infinite time scale.  Beware listening to this guy.

[windjc]

Hey rpietila. How is your sale in the 600s doing? Do you still intend to turn a profit on it?

Either way I make a profit. If it goes to 400, I make more coins, if it doesn't, I make more dollars.*

*Compared to the average dishoarding schedule.


Besides I already made that dip by selling 900, buying back 500. Everything else is extra.

Oh brother    By your argument, there is no unprofitable trade because you can just wait for the price to move in your favor over an infinite time scale.  Beware listening to this guy.

He will buy some more after we go to ATHs. After all, he thinks we are going to $1 million. He would be silly not to buy more if he has the fiat to.

[rpietila]

He will buy some more after we go to ATHs. After all, he thinks we are going to $1 million. He would be silly not to buy more if he has the fiat to.

The wisest choice would have been to delete your post, just because it tends to degenerate the thread to endless and fruitless debate over my investment decisions. One of the reasons this was started is that you can keep discussing about me in Adam's wall observer.

Why is it fruitless? Because I already have my own strategy, I have told it to you (buy back some at <$400 if it is visited, otherwise nothing).

Why is it endless? Because I have said that 400 can happen any time before March, and probably only in June I will remove the bids, giving it up and keeping the fiat. The average attention span here is hours, not months.

So there is no point in asking every time it goes up/down, if I have bought or will soon buy back. What determines my buyback is the price, not the time. We have had this same talk numerous times, and could have it many more times, but it does not add anything, nor change anything. I am past the point of having the highest number of bitcoins that I will ever have (probably).

So how about everyone adding something of value to the discussion?

[rpietila]

Want to bet for a box of cigars that it won't go below $500 this year? ( edit: Mt.Gox price )

In March, 2013 I made a public bet for a sum of 7 bitcoins (<$1,000 back then). I got a call from the police, because soliciting public bets is illegal where I live. Therefore I have to structure all bets as financial instruments and have them in the books of my company in another country. And to make this profitable for me, they have to be for a quite large amount, and also give better odds than I could have just by using other options at my disposal.

So this ain't so much fun as it should be

[Ivanhoe]

Want to bet for a box of cigars that it won't go below $500 this year? ( edit: Mt.Gox price )

In March, 2013 I made a public bet for a sum of 7 bitcoins (<$1,000 back then). I got a call from the police, because soliciting public bets is illegal where I live. Therefore I have to structure all bets as financial instruments and have them in the books of my company in another country. And to make this profitable for me, they have to be for a quite large amount, and also give better odds than I could have just by using other options at my disposal.

So this ain't so much fun as it should be

Ok, if the price goes below $500,- ( mt. Gox ) i'll send you a box of cigars as gift. You can decide if you send one if it doesn't go below that price. I would like to know if your taste of cigars is as good as you say it is

[rpietila]

Want to bet for a box of cigars that it won't go below $500 this year? ( edit: Mt.Gox price )

In March, 2013 I made a public bet for a sum of 7 bitcoins (<$1,000 back then). I got a call from the police, because soliciting public bets is illegal where I live. Therefore I have to structure all bets as financial instruments and have them in the books of my company in another country. And to make this profitable for me, they have to be for a quite large amount, and also give better odds than I could have just by using other options at my disposal.

So this ain't so much fun as it should be

Ok, if the price goes below $500,- ( mt. Gox ) i'll send you a box of cigars as gift. You can decide if you send one if it doesn't go below that price. I would like to know if your taste of cigars is as good as you say it is

If ever I send you a gift, the price will be determined in Bitstamp

[Ivanhoe]

Want to bet for a box of cigars that it won't go below $500 this year? ( edit: Mt.Gox price )

In March, 2013 I made a public bet for a sum of 7 bitcoins (<$1,000 back then). I got a call from the police, because soliciting public bets is illegal where I live. Therefore I have to structure all bets as financial instruments and have them in the books of my company in another country. And to make this profitable for me, they have to be for a quite large amount, and also give better odds than I could have just by using other options at my disposal.

So this ain't so much fun as it should be

Ok, if the price goes below $500,- ( mt. Gox ) i'll send you a box of cigars as gift. You can decide if you send one if it doesn't go below that price. I would like to know if your taste of cigars is as good as you say it is

If ever I send you a gift, the price will be determined in Bitstamp

What do you propose as Bitstamp price?

[favelle75]

Hey rpietila. How is your sale in the 600s doing? Do you still intend to turn a profit on it?

Either way I make a profit. If it goes to 400, I make more coins, if it doesn't, I make more dollars.*

*Compared to the average dishoarding schedule.


Besides I already made that dip by selling 900, buying back 500. Everything else is extra.

Oh brother    By your argument, there is no unprofitable trade because you can just wait for the price to move in your favor over an infinite time scale.  Beware listening to this guy.

No kidding....how the hell can we take this thread seriously? Its like "oh my prediction was completely wrong? Its ok, because no matter what I spew from my mouth I make money".

Good grief.

[windjc]

He will buy some more after we go to ATHs. After all, he thinks we are going to $1 million. He would be silly not to buy more if he has the fiat to.

The wisest choice would have been to delete your post, just because it tends to degenerate the thread to endless and fruitless debate over my investment decisions. One of the reasons this was started is that you can keep discussing about me in Adam's wall observer.

Why is it fruitless? Because I already have my own strategy, I have told it to you (buy back some at <$400 if it is visited, otherwise nothing).

Why is it endless? Because I have said that 400 can happen any time before March, and probably only in June I will remove the bids, giving it up and keeping the fiat. The average attention span here is hours, not months.

So there is no point in asking every time it goes up/down, if I have bought or will soon buy back. What determines my buyback is the price, not the time. We have had this same talk numerous times, and could have it many more times, but it does not add anything, nor change anything. I am past the point of having the highest number of bitcoins that I will ever have (probably).

So how about everyone adding something of value to the discussion?

If the wisest choice was to delete my post, why did you not delete it? Hmmm.

At any rate, I ASSUMED based on your previous posts that you invest $$$ from time to time for others that you know. I assume they would at some points ask your advice/consulting on when to buy.

I assume you would not tell them, ONLY AT or below $500, especially if we go to ATHs. I assume you would buy back above ATHs because you have stated repeatedly that you think bitcoin value will be 7 figures.

Am I wrong about any of this?

And if I am not, why are you so eager to patronize me? Enough with your silly pointless condescension.

[rpietila]

At any rate, I ASSUMED based on your previous posts that you invest $$$ from time to time for others that you know. I assume they would at some points ask your advice/consulting on when to buy.

I assume you would not tell them, ONLY AT or below $500, especially if we go to ATHs. I assume you would buy back above ATHs because you have stated repeatedly that you think bitcoin value will be 7 figures.

Am I wrong about any of this?

Not really Except that personally I don't like to see me in a position where buying back at a loss is the wisest choice (regardless of the future price development). Therefore I don't get into that kind of position, and I am not now in such a position. Actually only once in my life I have bought back at a loss. This was at $195 after selling some at $130, and was obviously a stellar decision. Selling at 130 was the misinformed decision.

My "problem" now is that after analyzing the exchange rate developments from April to this day, I still regard it as quite possible that we see a crash to 400. It will require a negative event, but there are many negative events in store for Bitcoin

And if I am not, why are you so eager to patronize me? Enough with your silly pointless condescension.

I am trying to get the thread back to the discussion of other people's investment strategies. If we keep on discussing of my position only, it gets tiresome, because the position is quite slow moving. Even if you suddenly see 400, you can just be "yawn, wonder whether rpietila got 60% or 70% of his maximum buyback of coins and whether he is now 60% or 70% invested). I am sure many of you have more interesting things to show! Sorry if that sounded like patronizing 

[rpietila]

Want to bet for a box of cigars that it won't go below $500 this year? ( edit: Mt.Gox price )

In March, 2013 I made a public bet for a sum of 7 bitcoins (<$1,000 back then). I got a call from the police, because soliciting public bets is illegal where I live. Therefore I have to structure all bets as financial instruments and have them in the books of my company in another country. And to make this profitable for me, they have to be for a quite large amount, and also give better odds than I could have just by using other options at my disposal.

So this ain't so much fun as it should be

Ok, if the price goes below $500,- ( mt. Gox ) i'll send you a box of cigars as gift. You can decide if you send one if it doesn't go below that price. I would like to know if your taste of cigars is as good as you say it is

If ever I send you a gift, the price will be determined in Bitstamp

What do you propose as Bitstamp price?

All probabilities are against me that it would even go to 600. So I would be delighted to have gifts if it goes below 500 intraday in Bitstamp. If the year passes without this happening, the remaining stash makes me so rich that I can send gifts to my friends

My taste is "traditional Cuban" - aromatic, balanced, not very strong. The cigar needs to be big (thick) enough to realize the flavour, petit corona (44) size is the minimum. Usually I buy the top end of the range and only a few at a time though, because I never know when I develop a new hobby...

[rpietila]

I am sure that people will add valuable inputs when you stop talking about your self, so you wont give the the chance to attack your character,  another important key of productive discussion is to admit your mistakes without turning the direction of discussion about how loaded and rich you are, this is not a moral thing to do and I, one of the people, am sensitive when it comes to people egos, no matter how good is your input, you can ruin it with one word and you lose your audience.

people are not here to read about how much do you have, you can tell your friends and family about that, but are here to get different opinions, the other thing that I did notice is that you ask people to write something of value backed with calculations but even you don't back your posts with any scientific facts rather than words " my calculation" ..... show people how did you calculate, I am sure that there is plenty of us who are good at math...

I am really curious what kind of education you do have ? usually it is people who failed their in education adopt this way of discussion and try to cover (hide) behind their material winnings but usually their ego expose them and make them an easy target...

delete my post and you once again prove me right

I have a purpose why I write these things, it is either to learn, teach or have fun. Your continued pestering in Adam's thread made it difficult for me to do any of these. Every time I posted something, you would derail it from the issue to some of my personal quality or quantity. It looked very stupid that you among the hundreds that regularly read the thread, could not even understand my prominent position in bitcoin economy, and distracted the lurkers that are my main audience anyway. So I provided proof that I have 50 times higher trading volume than you have in Bitstamp, after which you promised to apologize. I sent further proof about successful trades in Mt.Gox, but instead of apology, I received more insult.

Now, I am not sure how to behave towards people whose turnover is 50 times bigger than mine, ie. approximately 700 million dollars per month. Such people do not even exist in Bitcoin. But certainly I would try to weigh my words very carefully to respect those people's high position and to maximize the learning benefit I get from the encounter. If I have wronged them by behaving stupidly, I would be quick to apologize after learning my wrongs.

According to research, people - rich and poor alike - are able to maintain only about 150 acquaintanceships. It is not always the case that the rich are pompous asses, but they do have it considerably harder regarding whom to let in their inner circle, and even whom to interact with at all. Every person has the same amount of time, but the rich have many more opportunities to choose from. I have chosen to share my insights here, and will do it as long as it serves any purpose. You are currently banned from my threads, because I see no purpose in interacting with someone who promised and owes an apology and refuses to fulfil it.

Mr. Pietila if you could so kindly send however much would be sufficient to Mr. XXXXXXX to help them. Thanks.

This is an example of how I would like to be addressed.

[dedcoin]

@rpietilla I followed your bearish call by turning 100% fiat. The reason is that I need to increase my bitcoin position, not by greed, but because I lost many coins during december crash, and that sucks .. I feel like the only sucka who lost money there.

The other option I have is investing more of my savings (currently 50%) at $800. This scares the shit out of me.

Now, day after day it seems that > $800 is becoming a norm, and I could hardly see why people won't buy bellow, even at $700 (unless they think it's going further down). Thus I am hesitating to go back all-in right now.

Worst of all, I expect a major trap (either way) end of January caused by manipulation. Because so many people are in my situation right now and manipulators will take advantage of this state of mind.

[rpietila]

@rpietilla I followed your bearish call by turning 100% fiat. The reason is that I need to increase my bitcoin position, not by greed, but because I lost many coins during december crash, and that sucks .. I feel like the only sucka who lost money there.

The other option I have is investing more of my savings (currently 50%) at $800. This scares the shit out of me.

Now, day after day it seems that > $800 is becoming a norm, and I could hardly see why people won't buy bellow, even at $700 (unless they think it's going further down). Thus I am hesitating to go back all-in right now.

Worst of all, I expect a major trap (either way) end of January caused by manipulation. Because so many people are in my situation right now and manipulators will take advantage of this state of mind.

I think the scenario analysis helps. Let's say that you have $85k = BTC100 if fully invested, and you would "like" to invest $50k at 500 so that you could have BTC100 and have some fiat left over. What can conceivably happen?

- Bitcoin just rises and rises to the moon, and you still have $85k and no coins.
- Bitcoin rises and you panic buy at some higher amount, for example $1,000, get BTC50 and retain $35k.
- Bitcoin crashes and your bid fulfills at $500, and you retain your $35k.
- Bitcoin goes to zero.

From here on, it is up to your personal preferences. Try to think about utility, and not fear and greed. For example, if bitcoin actually goes to the moon without stopping, it is nice to have BTC100 but perhaps BTC50 or even BTC25 would give almost the same utility, since they are so valuable. But if it goes to zero, or crashes towards it viciously, it is much better to have $35k than $0 as your cash balance.

I aim to keep my bitcoin position in 60-80% range. If it goes over, I sell and diversify. This also helps in the pullbacks, it is both easier to sleep after having cashed out, and also makes it possible to reinvest into bitcoin if it tanks hard with no fundamental reason.

It does not really matter what your allocation is now, and whether you are "in the process of a trade going sour" or not. Just decide where you want to be, should any of the scenarios happen. If possible, try to think which one of them is more probable, but do not neglect any of them. Then buy/sell your bitcoins so that the position is most suitable for everything.

If everything that can happen is something you have already planned for, you do well in all situations and cannot really lose. This is wise position management, and opposite to gambling. Even prediction has very little to do with this.

[The Bitcoin Foundation]

Ive been looking at the weekly candle chart . Seems its best time to buy when theres 4 weeks of red AND or Bitcoin touches the 30 Week EMA.

Just before each run up theres 4-5 red candles and the 30 week EMA line gets tested which right now sits at $475 and decreasing its accent. I would play the 30 week EMA. its bound to get tested before thing substantial happens