rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[merkin51]

Do todays crazy events change any longterm bearish predictions? I had fiat waiting on BTC-E and, for some reason which right now I can't understand, I didn't buy in when it got down to the $500s. Still think we'll get back down there before we go up properly?

[ErisDiscordia]

do you happen to be watching the charts now?

I am often watching the charts, alas only for entertainment purposes.

If I were inclined to do day tarding, I wouldn't be shorting right now. While I think there is (potentially a lot) room to go down, the risk/reward doesn't seem to be there. Unless you're desperately looking to accumulate more coins and have no fiat for it. Good luck!

[rpietila]

do you happen to be watching the charts now?

I am often watching the charts, alas only for entertainment purposes.

If I were inclined to do day tarding, I wouldn't be shorting right now. While I think there is (potentially a lot) room to go down, the risk/reward doesn't seem to be there. Unless you're desperately looking to accumulate more coins and have no fiat for it. Good luck!

After buying at was it 582, I went on to sell at 670. It is going down.

[MatTheCat]

Do todays crazy events change any longterm bearish predictions? I had fiat waiting on BTC-E and, for some reason which right now I can't understand, I didn't buy in when it got down to the $500s. Still think we'll get back down there before we go up properly?

I can understand it. When the price is buoyant at over $1000 and heading up, everyone dreams of getting $500 Bitcoins again. When the market is decimating itself and the price is slashed down to the $500 range, the market psychology totally changes and these coins are no longer looking so appealing and unless you are a swing trader, neither should they.

[chessnut]

do you happen to be watching the charts now?

I am often watching the charts, alas only for entertainment purposes.

If I were inclined to do day tarding, I wouldn't be shorting right now. While I think there is (potentially a lot) room to go down, the risk/reward doesn't seem to be there. Unless you're desperately looking to accumulate more coins and have no fiat for it. Good luck!

After buying at was it 582, I went on to sell at 670. It is going down.

cheers for the feedback rpietila and eris,
It helps when you cant think straight after 24 hours without sleep. easy to make a bad move when one is wary.

[sgbett]

It's not strictly TA, but the sentiment on this sub-forum feels awfully bottomy. Reminds me very much of the $2 days after the $32 high. Of course that lasted for a looong time so maybe we could go lower. The bear feeding frenzy is a great indicator in my mind.

I doubt we will legitimately go as low as $100 (I'm not counting them spike shenanigans) but if we do, I got orders that will double my BTC position, and *still* leave me with a negative cost basis overall...

If we only go as low as $380 I only increase by about 5% though

[rpietila]

It's not strictly TA, but the sentiment on this sub-forum feels awfully bottomy.

Not really. The bottom is when people do not anymore believe in Bitcoin. Where is that to be seen? Who has quit the forum because of that? (Such make some noise before quitting so that you will notice ) We have potentially a long way down to go, but of course the news do matter.

[chessnut]

It's not strictly TA, but the sentiment on this sub-forum feels awfully bottomy. Reminds me very much of the $2 days after the $32 high. Of course that lasted for a looong time so maybe we could go lower. The bear feeding frenzy is a great indicator in my mind.

I doubt we will legitimately go as low as $100 (I'm not counting them spike shenanigans) but if we do, I got orders that will double my BTC position, and *still* leave me with a negative cost basis overall...

If we only go as low as $380 I only increase by about 5% though

the spike was great, now we know that A; there is big support at 100. B; there was nothing significant in the way of 4k-8k bitcoins.
I deem this means the larger players are/were taking a wait and see stance - bearish like you say.
That spike is actually something we all wanted to see, that there is a force backing this crypto, that it is not subject to uncontrollable crashses to zero.
So if you ask me it is clear that over the coming weeks the fall may take several days to explore 300-500 range. it will almost certainly not pass 100.
Im sure the trend will resume before the end of the year.

[neilol]

It's not strictly TA, but the sentiment on this sub-forum feels awfully bottomy. Reminds me very much of the $2 days after the $32 high. Of course that lasted for a looong time so maybe we could go lower. The bear feeding frenzy is a great indicator in my mind.

I doubt we will legitimately go as low as $100 (I'm not counting them spike shenanigans) but if we do, I got orders that will double my BTC position, and *still* leave me with a negative cost basis overall...

If we only go as low as $380 I only increase by about 5% though

We are still seeing many posts like yours - sentiment is that Bitcoin might go lower in the interim - and THAT will be a good time to buy before it goes higher. It's still a net bullish stance. We need to start seeing posts that lost faith in Bitcoin as a whole, see it as a bad investment over any horizon/strategy etc.

Of course this all depends on how much weight you give to public forum sentiment... as Bitcoin becomes more popular / mainstream this will include a greater mix of new/old/manipulators, and will hold less.

[magicmexican]

It's not strictly TA, but the sentiment on this sub-forum feels awfully bottomy.

Not really. The bottom is when people do not anymore believe in Bitcoin. Where is that to be seen? Who has quit the forum because of that? (Such make some noise before quitting so that you will notice ) We have potentially a long way down to go, but of course the news do matter.

True. However, its a lot harder to "stop believing" in BTC nowadays, compared to 30$ to 2$ times(or even 266$ to 60$), where the price could potentially go to 0. Today tho, even 400$ looks "low".

All that said, i was very surprised how well-timed fud could move a market THAT much. So in my eyes your desired levels are  a bit more likely now, but still well below 50% chance imo.

[windjc]

It's not strictly TA, but the sentiment on this sub-forum feels awfully bottomy.

Not really. The bottom is when people do not anymore believe in Bitcoin. Where is that to be seen? Who has quit the forum because of that? (Such make some noise before quitting so that you will notice ) We have potentially a long way down to go, but of course the news do matter.

No, there have been at least 2 on here, including TERA, that have said they might be bowing out. The other one was mmitech I believe.

[N12]

It's not strictly TA, but the sentiment on this sub-forum feels awfully bottomy.

Not really. The bottom is when people do not anymore believe in Bitcoin. Where is that to be seen? Who has quit the forum because of that? (Such make some noise before quitting so that you will notice ) We have potentially a long way down to go, but of course the news do matter.

No, there have been at least 2 on here, including TERA, that have said they might be bowing out. The other one was mmitech I believe.

Good catch, I have noticed that too. Great contrarian indicator.

[mmitech]

It's not strictly TA, but the sentiment on this sub-forum feels awfully bottomy.

Not really. The bottom is when people do not anymore believe in Bitcoin. Where is that to be seen? Who has quit the forum because of that? (Such make some noise before quitting so that you will notice ) We have potentially a long way down to go, but of course the news do matter.

No, there have been at least 2 on here, including TERA, that have said they might be bowing out. The other one was mmitech I believe.

I am still here, I didn't quit and I am not planing to do so, I said I cant do anything because I don't hold any bitcoins at the moment, I invested 80% of my BTC into IPOs and cashed 20% out (needed some cash for a personal project).

so I am painfully watching this lost opportunity, I just hope that the IPO pays out at the end ...

[dgarcia]

The other one was mmitech I believe.

mmitech the bear slaughter?  

I think the bottom is realy near ;-)

Seriously, I am really horrified how the sentiment of some people on this board is switching between megalomania and desperation.

[windjc]

It's not strictly TA, but the sentiment on this sub-forum feels awfully bottomy.

Not really. The bottom is when people do not anymore believe in Bitcoin. Where is that to be seen? Who has quit the forum because of that? (Such make some noise before quitting so that you will notice ) We have potentially a long way down to go, but of course the news do matter.

No, there have been at least 2 on here, including TERA, that have said they might be bowing out. The other one was mmitech I believe.

Good catch, I have noticed that too. Great contrarian indicator.

This is the first time I have witnessed the other side of the coin, "desperation" or "despair" or whatever you want to call it. Its a really fascinating look at pyschology.

It feels like the parabolic rise on this forum, expect bizarro - exact opposite. I even feel myself from time to time second guessing.

Although I look at this as a necessary purge. I really do. This is part of the transition now, from amatuer hour to professional bitcoin integration.  I have thought from the very beginning (for me a little less than a year) that Mtgox was a blight on the face of bitcoin. And the loyalty to it (even rpteila has 6 figures on there) has absolutely amazed me.

Mtgox isn't/wasn't going to die without something outlandish and major happening. And maybe this is it. I almost feel like Mtgox needs to default at least a little, to really bury the hatchet. I don't want people to lose their money and I don't want Bitcoin's reputation to suffer. But whatever it takes to remove this amatuer and disfunctional company from our existence - its really worth it. Just like silk road was a burden removed, I believe the removal of Mtgox is likewise a burden that when removed will help us all.

[Ivanhoe]

Oh you get used to this emotional rollercoaster quick, some of us experienced it multiple times already . This is the main reason why you should only invest what you can lose. Otherwise mental breakdown is inevitable.

[ErisDiscordia]

It's not strictly TA, but the sentiment on this sub-forum feels awfully bottomy.

Not really. The bottom is when people do not anymore believe in Bitcoin. Where is that to be seen? Who has quit the forum because of that? (Such make some noise before quitting so that you will notice ) We have potentially a long way down to go, but of course the news do matter.

True. However, its a lot harder to "stop believing" in BTC nowadays, compared to 30$ to 2$ times(or even 266$ to 60$), where the price could potentially go to 0. Today tho, even 400$ looks "low".

All that said, i was very surprised how well-timed fud could move a market THAT much. So in my eyes your desired levels are  a bit more likely now, but still well below 50% chance imo.

The bolded is the precisely stated main reason why I'm with you & sgbett on this one. Much has been said about whether classic Technical Analysis as used in stocks, commodities etc. can be applied to Bitcoin. I would be equally skeptical about "Sentiment Analysis". Should we be expecting vocal masses of people abandoning the technology within the next couple of months, before the bottom of the bear market is in? I doubt it and as usual sit back with interest to observe how reality might prove me wrong this time

[rpietila]

Oh you get used to this emotional rollercoaster quick, some of us experienced it multiple times already . This is the main reason why you should only invest what you van lose. Otherwise mental breakdown is inevitable.

True. I could not care less nor lose a moment of my sleep, whether coin goes to $300 or $900 this night. But my indignation over Mt.Gox for stealing real coins from me is readily apparent.

It honestly does not matter. Dollar price.

[chessnut]

I have 5x more value in BTC than I have fiat (while it didnt start out that way). I dont have too much fiat either, but Im sure I sleep better at night having the bitcoins.
Last night was the most stressful night having missed an opportunity to get cheap bitcoins and almost forced out of my temporary fiat position for much smaller profit than desired.
I would say for a once in a lifetime opportunity like bitcoin, Ill risk more than I can comfortably lose, bitcoin is hope, and I was not afraid of the spike.

[MatTheCat]

Mtgox isn't/wasn't going to die without something outlandish and major happening. And maybe this is it. I almost feel like Mtgox needs to default at least a little, to really bury the hatchet. I don't want people to lose their money and I don't want Bitcoin's reputation to suffer. But whatever it takes to remove this amatuer and disfunctional company from our existence - its really worth it. Just like silk road was a burden removed, I believe the removal of Mtgox is likewise a burden that when removed will help us all.

Silk Road is alive and well and more booming than ever. I have just recently received 5g of top quality MDMA from a reputable vendor on the site.

The Ross Ulbricht bust was massive advertisement for Silk Road and darknet cryptocurrency black market websites in general.

'A burden removed indeed'

Money laundering and black market has been the early lifeblood of Bitcoin whether you like it or not. It has been the spine upon which the rampant speculation was all based.