rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[User705]

But the SR takedown eliminated 100k+ XBT from the market.  We are still waiting on when the FBI will start selling them back into the market.

Just to throw another thought into the ring.. A few pages back someone mentioned that the flash crash yesterday was in ways a bit similar to the SR takedown and subsequent flash crash.

Remember what happened after that? We went on a rally. Support was proved, confidence was gained and it things got progressively more bullish.

I think we could be half-way there to having a similar outcome.

Gox is not gone yet, but it is dying. One after one, the voices in the bitcoin world came out and condemned it yesterday.

Coindesk removed it from its price index and many other similar operations followed suit.

It had been a bad joke for too long, everyone knew, but no-one quite knew the scale or the exact issue.

Yesterday cleared a lot of this up. They could still be insolvent too, we just don't know yet, but the community has seemed to turn it's back on Gox in a big way.
Good! They deserve it! But the job is only half done and there could be more bad (worse) news to come.

I guess my point is, much like the SR takedown helped to sanitise bitcoins image and proved support and increased confidence.

Yesterday's shenanigans could possibly have a similar effect. The general sentiment seems to be, Gox are assholes, shouldn't have said what they said, and they are to blame. Yes there is a flaw / bug in the protocol, but it is not new and has been known about for a long time. Their problems are their own fault.

We rebounded pretty quickly in my book. I sold a bit at 700 anticipating the dip.
We were back there in under 24 hours.
Sentiment looks good, in fact i'd say improved! Maybe we won't see $400 afterall.  

Could that have been the capitulation? Piggy backing on the news? Flash-capitulation anyone?

[sgbett]

Risto, you still think btc will be at $300k in the future??

And also are you bullish or bearish now?

Hm.. I am starting to feel the fear in me. But it is OK, I have coins in an exchange and I sell them. Then I have fiat and feel good

(It is better to sell while the price is high)

Everybody do according to their own emotions.

This is what I mean by it feeling bottomy. I never felt like selling in any dips, but I do recall being nervous about what was happening when it was ~$2. Right now is the first time in ages that I have been having those similar feelings.

I am taking this as a personal indication that it's time to buy. It's terrifying buying into all this negative sentiment, but I figure that's where the best opportunities lie.

High price for a cheery consensus and all that.

I'm sure we'll look back at this thread when it hits 5 figures the same way we look back at all those single digit threads now.

[vokain]

Risto, you still think btc will be at $300k in the future??

And also are you bullish or bearish now?

Hm.. I am starting to feel the fear in me. But it is OK, I have coins in an exchange and I sell them. Then I have fiat and feel good

(It is better to sell while the price is high)

Everybody do according to their own emotions.

This is what I mean by it feeling bottomy. I never felt like selling in any dips, but I do recall being nervous about what was happening when it was ~$2. Right now is the first time in ages that I have been having those similar feelings.

I am taking this as a personal indication that it's time to buy. It's terrifying buying into all this negative sentiment, but I figure that's where the best opportunities lie.

High price for a cheery consensus and all that.

I'm sure we'll look back at this thread when it hits 5 figures the same way we look back at all those single digit threads now.

i mean you won't be upset in a few months.
all of this is just the inherent ADD that's typical of the internet

[rpietila]

Mixed signals. Trendline suggests we are still high. Also the bottoms so far this week have been flashcrashes with quick rebounds. (This has not been a property of the prior final capitulations, rather of the beginning of them.) Not enough negative sentiment, everybody is still hopeful. Even goxbtc trades at higher than is realistic imo. There are also negative events that could still happen.

Feeling of fear is a good sign, but not yet the sign to buy if the price is not there.

[windjc]

Mixed signals. Trendline suggests we are still high. Also the bottoms so far this week have been flashcrashes with quick rebounds. (This has not been a property of the prior final capitulations, rather of the beginning of them.) Not enough negative sentiment, everybody is still hopeful. Even goxbtc trades at higher than is realistic imo. There are also negative events that could still happen.

Feeling of fear is a good sign, but not yet the sign to buy if the price is not there.

You have some really good points. I do not know where you are seeing the "everybody is still hopeful."  I mean, I am hopeful mainly because of the eco-system and the fairly positive response of US regulators. Besides that, even I, who am a "perma-bull" am not very hopeful of the current price. I feel fear. Others, if you have been watching closely, have either gone silent (Mbtac) or have said they are quitting. Plus there is a massive influx of trolls, with threads saying Bitcoin is going to die. DDosers smelled blood and went on the attack. Someone sold off 8000 BTC on btc-e. Crazy shit is going on everywhere.

[rpietila]

You have some really good points. I do not know where you are seeing the "everybody is still hopeful."  I mean, I am hopeful mainly because of the eco-system and the fairly positive response of US regulators. Besides that, even I, who am a "perma-bull" am not very hopeful of the current price. I feel fear. Others, if you have been watching closely, have either gone silent (Mbtac) or have said they are quitting. Plus there is a massive influx of trolls, with threads saying Bitcoin is going to die. DDosers smelled blood and went on the attack. Someone sold off 8000 BTC on btc-e. Crazy shit is going on everywhere.

If you are reasonably confident of Bitcoin's long-term success, then you are "hopeful" and have no reason to sell. Then the price stays high, and this is what we are experiencing. If large holders lose confidence, then they sell, and crash follows.

Based on my research, the # of coins in small holders' hands may be so small now that it cannot shake the markets. And if someone was here during the April bubble, he is not prone to panicking. In 2011 there was no precedent so even large holders panicked and price spiraled down.

Then there is the February 14, which alone is a reason to sell your coins NOW.

[sgbett]

Mixed signals. Trendline suggests we are still high. Also the bottoms so far this week have been flashcrashes with quick rebounds. (This has not been a property of the prior final capitulations, rather of the beginning of them.) Not enough negative sentiment, everybody is still hopeful. Even goxbtc trades at higher than is realistic imo. There are also negative events that could still happen.

Feeling of fear is a good sign, but not yet the sign to buy if the price is not there.

You have some really good points. I do not know where you are seeing the "everybody is still hopeful."  I mean, I am hopeful mainly because of the eco-system and the fairly positive response of US regulators. Besides that, even I, who am a "perma-bull" am not very hopeful of the current price. I feel fear. Others, if you have been watching closely, have either gone silent (Mbtac) or have said they are quitting. Plus there is a massive influx of trolls, with threads saying Bitcoin is going to die. DDosers smelled blood and went on the attack. Someone sold off 8000 BTC on btc-e. Crazy shit is going on everywhere.

I agree entirely with this. Compared to the 'to da moon' sentiment of 2-3 months ago. It's like night and day.

I don't think there are any permabulls posting at the moment who aren't feeling at least a little bit nervous.

The only sells I'll ever make are skimming a little play money. Significant trading for profit is not my bag. My primary goal for BTC is hedging its potential crash up, and so I sit and wait and watch.

My difficulty is when to commit more fiat. Experience has taught me not to try and second guess the price, so that leaves me with laddering down. I might not catch the bottom, I might not maximise my entry. I do guarantee that I take something out of this situation though.

[chessnut]

jolly good calls everyone. last night the bulls were screaming "to da moon" @700....... it was just so predictable...... 10 hours of ranging and the market flops.

[podyx]

You have some really good points. I do not know where you are seeing the "everybody is still hopeful."  I mean, I am hopeful mainly because of the eco-system and the fairly positive response of US regulators. Besides that, even I, who am a "perma-bull" am not very hopeful of the current price. I feel fear. Others, if you have been watching closely, have either gone silent (Mbtac) or have said they are quitting. Plus there is a massive influx of trolls, with threads saying Bitcoin is going to die. DDosers smelled blood and went on the attack. Someone sold off 8000 BTC on btc-e. Crazy shit is going on everywhere.

If you are reasonably confident of Bitcoin's long-term success, then you are "hopeful" and have no reason to sell. Then the price stays high, and this is what we are experiencing. If large holders lose confidence, then they sell, and crash follows.

Based on my research, the # of coins in small holders' hands may be so small now that it cannot shake the markets. And if someone was here during the April bubble, he is not prone to panicking. In 2011 there was no precedent so even large holders panicked and price spiraled down.

Then there is the February 14, which alone is a reason to sell your coins NOW.

What happens on 14th feb.?

also as a bull I'm no doubting bitcoins future until we see major bad news in the bitcoin protocol or 5 big countries banning it (Non-fud that is) and price going down to 300-400

[windjc]

You have some really good points. I do not know where you are seeing the "everybody is still hopeful."  I mean, I am hopeful mainly because of the eco-system and the fairly positive response of US regulators. Besides that, even I, who am a "perma-bull" am not very hopeful of the current price. I feel fear. Others, if you have been watching closely, have either gone silent (Mbtac) or have said they are quitting. Plus there is a massive influx of trolls, with threads saying Bitcoin is going to die. DDosers smelled blood and went on the attack. Someone sold off 8000 BTC on btc-e. Crazy shit is going on everywhere.

If you are reasonably confident of Bitcoin's long-term success, then you are "hopeful" and have no reason to sell. Then the price stays high, and this is what we are experiencing. If large holders lose confidence, then they sell, and crash follows.

Based on my research, the # of coins in small holders' hands may be so small now that it cannot shake the markets. And if someone was here during the April bubble, he is not prone to panicking. In 2011 there was no precedent so even large holders panicked and price spiraled down.

Then there is the February 14, which alone is a reason to sell your coins NOW.

I wasn't an active member in April/May, but I have read over the posts from the main thread at that time. I did not see the despair and confusion and trolling that I see now. I saw people reasonably excited about the fact that bitcoin was able to make it into another large growth curve for the first time in a couple of years. I saw people predicting $30, but that was almost 3 times higher than the year started. I do not remember reading anything much about attacks and the death of bitcoin or even the death of exchanges.

[podyx]

@windjc lol really? I don't see how price is gonna drop just because of a small thing like that

I mean we were going thru christmas steady rising, didn't we?

[BitChick]

You have some really good points. I do not know where you are seeing the "everybody is still hopeful."  I mean, I am hopeful mainly because of the eco-system and the fairly positive response of US regulators. Besides that, even I, who am a "perma-bull" am not very hopeful of the current price. I feel fear. Others, if you have been watching closely, have either gone silent (Mbtac) or have said they are quitting. Plus there is a massive influx of trolls, with threads saying Bitcoin is going to die. DDosers smelled blood and went on the attack. Someone sold off 8000 BTC on btc-e. Crazy shit is going on everywhere.

If you are reasonably confident of Bitcoin's long-term success, then you are "hopeful" and have no reason to sell. Then the price stays high, and this is what we are experiencing. If large holders lose confidence, then they sell, and crash follows.

Based on my research, the # of coins in small holders' hands may be so small now that it cannot shake the markets. And if someone was here during the April bubble, he is not prone to panicking. In 2011 there was no precedent so even large holders panicked and price spiraled down.

Then there is the February 14, which alone is a reason to sell your coins NOW.

What happens on 14th feb.?

also as a bull I'm no doubting bitcoins future until we see major bad news in the bitcoin protocol or 5 big countries banning it (Non-fud that is) and price going down to 300-400

Feb. 14th is Valentine's Day, a typically bearish day for men all over the world.

BitchicksHusband has it easy.  We gave up celebrating Valentine's Day several years ago.  After a couple years of stressing out over getting reservations at nice restaurants only to end up waiting for over an hour to even be seated we both decided to never celebrate Valentine's Day again.  Or we just go out on a different night if we want.  I think many of his friends wonder how he convinced me that was a good idea?  I think I am just a little more logical than most women.  It doesn't hurt that I am the most frugal one in the family too!

[bassclef]

I wasn't an active member in April/May, but I have read over the posts from the main thread at that time. I did not see the despair and confusion and trolling that I see now. I saw people reasonably excited about the fact that bitcoin was able to make it into another large growth curve for the first time in a couple of years. I saw people predicting $30, but that was almost 3 times higher than the year started. I do not remember reading anything much about attacks and the death of bitcoin or even the death of exchanges.

I was around then, and I'll just say that most of the fun has been sucked out of this forum. Sure there was panic, but not at the level and not in the style that you see today. Think about this for a minute: Last year the entire trading engine of MtGox, then the only exchange in town, lagged to hell and STOPPED when there was any significant trading activity. People lost money and it crashed the market multiple times.  In my view, that was worse than what we have today, which is an annoying technical blip in the radar in comparison, and the community took it with aplomb. Think what they would do today with that news.

Now that Bitcoin means big money, many of the smart, early speculators who saw the true potential of Bitcoin are gone. Instead we now have average Chicken Littles clogging up the forums, desperate to get their hands on cheap coins, fearful that time and price is going to pass them by.

It's pretty much an echo chamber of trolls, sock puppets, psychological manipulation and people talking their books. There is some good analysis in here, but it's hard to find, and even harder to trust.

[windjc]

I wasn't an active member in April/May, but I have read over the posts from the main thread at that time. I did not see the despair and confusion and trolling that I see now. I saw people reasonably excited about the fact that bitcoin was able to make it into another large growth curve for the first time in a couple of years. I saw people predicting $30, but that was almost 3 times higher than the year started. I do not remember reading anything much about attacks and the death of bitcoin or even the death of exchanges.

I was around then, and I'll just say that most of the fun has been sucked out of this forum. Sure there was panic, but not at the level and not in the style that you see today. Think about this for a minute: Last year the entire trading engine of MtGox, then the only exchange in town, lagged to hell and STOPPED when there was any significant trading activity. People lost money and it crashed the market multiple times.  In my view, that was worse than what we have today, which is an annoying technical blip in the radar in comparison, and the community took it with aplomb. Think what they would do today with that news.

Now that Bitcoin means big money, many of the smart, early speculators who saw the true potential of Bitcoin are gone. Instead we now have average Chicken Littles clogging up the forums, desperate to get their hands on cheap coins, fearful that time and price is going to pass them by.

It's pretty much an echo chamber of trolls, sock puppets, psychological manipulation and people talking their books. There is some good analysis in here, but it's hard to find, and even harder to trust.

Yeah, I totally agree. I have been complaining about this for weeks.  And it also begs my question to rpteila about the fact that FUD and panic seems to be more alive today then then.

But, I agree, now the stakes seem higher.

I wish they would reimplement the noobie rule to make it harder for people to join. But, oh well, whatever. Even this forum is all about the almighty $.

[windjc]

I wasn't an active member in April/May, but I have read over the posts from the main thread at that time. I did not see the despair and confusion and trolling that I see now. I saw people reasonably excited about the fact that bitcoin was able to make it into another large growth curve for the first time in a couple of years. I saw people predicting $30, but that was almost 3 times higher than the year started. I do not remember reading anything much about attacks and the death of bitcoin or even the death of exchanges.

I was around then, and I'll just say that most of the fun has been sucked out of this forum. Sure there was panic, but not at the level and not in the style that you see today. Think about this for a minute: Last year the entire trading engine of MtGox, then the only exchange in town, lagged to hell and STOPPED when there was any significant trading activity. People lost money and it crashed the market multiple times.  In my view, that was worse than what we have today, which is an annoying technical blip in the radar in comparison, and the community took it with aplomb. Think what they would do today with that news.

Now that Bitcoin means big money, many of the smart, early speculators who saw the true potential of Bitcoin are gone. Instead we now have average Chicken Littles clogging up the forums, desperate to get their hands on cheap coins, fearful that time and price is going to pass them by.

It's pretty much an echo chamber of trolls, sock puppets, psychological manipulation and people talking their books. There is some good analysis in here, but it's hard to find, and even harder to trust.

Are you saying big money cashed out??

No, he is saying that people like you are making this forum a shithole.

[bassclef]

Are you saying big money cashed out??

No, quite the contrary. The smart ones are in it for the long haul. You won't be getting their coins, that's for sure. The coins you're getting now are the folks who bought in recently, or who don't properly understand Bitcoin, or are fearful of its long-term viability.

[bassclef]

Are you saying big money cashed out??

No, quite the contrary. The smart ones are in it for the long haul. You won't be getting their coins, that's for sure. The coins you're getting now are the folks who bought in recently, or who don't properly understand Bitcoin, or are fearful of its long-term viability.

ye, I agree

it seems there's quite many people saying price will go high but very few seem to actually believe it

I know, those who expect a scheduled meteoric rise are in for disappointment. It may happen, it may not. I think it probably will, simple supply and demand tells us this. Bitcoin behaves very unpredictably so a huge bull market may be days, weeks or even years away.

[bassclef]

Are you saying big money cashed out??

No, quite the contrary. The smart ones are in it for the long haul. You won't be getting their coins, that's for sure. The coins you're getting now are the folks who bought in recently, or who don't properly understand Bitcoin, or are fearful of its long-term viability.

ye, I agree

it seems there's quite many people saying price will go high but very few seem to actually believe it

Assuming my assessment is valid it's inevitable for the price to go high .... long term. I have my money where my mouth is and am not planning to sell any unless I need the money and to diversify a bit I guess after the following growth spurt (although i really don't want to).

Similar situation here... I've cashed out very little since I've been accumulating, but plan to recoup my initial investment later this year whether the price is right or not. I just need to sleep better. That and I can realize a lower long term capital gains tax rate by waiting.

[TERA]

it doesn't look good. there's too much God damned buying in bitstamp. even with bitcoin withdrawal closed.

[vokain]

it doesn't look good. there's too much God damned buying in bitstamp. even with bitcoin withdrawal closed.

are the ATMs linked to Bitstamp?