rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[windjc]

I think you are right. I also think that we will see 500 in the last exchange where we haven't yet seen it. End of March suits me very well.

Can't help but noticing you haven't mentioned 400 this time?

I picked up on that as well.      Curiouser and curiouser...

Price targets change over time.

The 200 SMA now sits just north of $450 on Stamp. Do not see us going below that for more than a day or so. In another 20 days it will be at $500 and moving up. $400s are getting less and less likely outside of a flash crash.

[rpietila]

The 200 SMA now sits just north of $450 on Stamp. Do not see us going below that for more than a day or so. In another 20 days it will be at $500 and moving up. $400s are getting less and less likely outside of a flash crash.

I am following these indicators. If you are preying for cheap coins, flash crash works fine. Gox is currently 292. If I had had my net in BTCe, the crash there would have given me coins at 420 average with every order fulfilled. The issue is not whether it will go down but how low and for how long. Probably my average buyin will be more than 420. In the last big crash it was 519. But everyone is free to follow their own strategy.

[bitrider]

The 200 SMA now sits just north of $450 on Stamp. Do not see us going below that for more than a day or so. In another 20 days it will be at $500 and moving up. $400s are getting less and less likely outside of a flash crash.

+1 However I expect flash crashes, and even some days below 200 SMA and have orders in place to reflect this. If they don't happen, we will likely be riding the 200 up to basing levels and there will be time enough to reset the orders at higher prices. Won't effect my overall strategy significantly.

[conspirosphere.tk]

The issue is not whether it will go down but how low and for how long.

...and where. Goxbux, Goxcoins and Goxprice pertain to the world of fables and unicorns.
You've been Re-Goxxed

[rpietila]

THIS PLACE IS ALMOST DEAD. JUST LIKE MTGOX.

I started lurking in Bitcointalk when I contemplated buying bitcoins the first time, during the 2011 bubble. Afterwards I made the purchase, and continued lurking through the plateau at $5, fall of Bitcoinica, Pirate@40, etc. until this thing started to interest me more and I registered late 2012.

I was really active in March-May 2013, and again starting October 2013. Now after 2,500 posts and 33 days of activity, I feel that not only my stay here, but even this very place, is coming to an end.

In the very beginning (of which I was not witnessing), the average IQ of the posters was probably +3.0 (145 if sd=15). That kind of community functions really well. But when Bitcoin started its exponential rise in the exchanges, exponentially more people were drawn in and given posting privileges. This started the slow but inevitable slide in the quality of discourse.

At first, a little-less-smart people respect the oldtimers, and fit in well. Afterwards one level less smart people enter in, and soon the oldtimers who actually know about things are outnumbered such that they cannot keep the average level of discussion up, and it reverts to the level of the newcomers. In the next stage the oldtimers are so far above the newcomers that meaningful discussion is not even possible, and at this point they segregate themselves to speak actual matters somewhere else, leaving the education of the forum to middle-knowledgeable people like me.

As recently as a year ago, people were laughing at me here, because my mouth was bigger than the actual knowledge. Now they respect me (except the trolls that are so much below me that they don't recognize it). But talking about the forum, it is a terrible thing that the people who know stuff are inundated with junk, and leaving. And now I am thinking the same.

Perhaps this is the way things go. My friend who knows the lifecycle of Internet forums, has explained that ever-expansion and quality cannot remain in the same place. In theory this could maybe, possibly, have been remedied long time ago by guarding the posting rights carefully. Now it is almost certainly too late, and the new forum software after minimum 12 months will not come on time to bring the lost contributors back.

This is a lamentation. Not a suggestion, nor a call to action. Sorry.

There are other communities available, I am a member of one, and if you really burn for Bitcoin and the economy it enables, shoot a PM with some kind of introduction.

[Undone]

At first, a little-less-smart people respect the oldtimers, and fit in well. Afterwards one level less smart people enter in, and soon the oldtimers who actually know about things are outnumbered such that they cannot keep the average level of discussion up, and it reverts to the level of the newcomers. In the next stage the oldtimers are so far above the newcomers that meaningful discussion is not even possible, and at this point they segregate themselves to speak actual matters somewhere else, leaving the education of the forum to middle-knowledgeable people like me.

I'm going to push back on this comment a little. Haven't you mentioned that you quit your career in order that you could educate people full-time about bitcoin?

If so, then it seems you've already tasked yourself with such a responsibility. If it truly is the task of the earlier adopters to spread the word, then segregating yourself off from newcomers seems antithetical to your mission.

I'm sure there are very good reasons for the "high-level of knowledge" posters to congregate. But there are also very good reasons for them to stay and fight the good fight.

[gentlemand]

I think there's only so much energy anyone can devote to a black hole of fudsters and freshly minted know it alls.

[Mythul]

Mr. rpietila I personally really enjoy reading your posts, although I rarely post on your threads since I do not have enough knowledge to bring something productive new to them. I just hope you won't leave the community.

There has been a lot of negativity lately due to the bear market and some pretty bad FUD which lead to a lot of anger and trolling on the forum.

I hope that maybe in a few months the general sentiment(at least of the speculation thread) will be more positive and productive.

[Undone]

I agree with that, gentlemand.

Bitcoin has huge obstacles to hurdle in general if it is to succeed. Education, and more importantly quality education, is possibly the greatest tool in overcoming these obstacles.

But yes, I'm positive that it's tiring to the old-timers to sift through thread after thread of the same nonsense and fear-mongering. Hell, I've only been here a few months and I can see the increase myself.

[RAJSALLIN]

Agree, rpietila is the reason I'm here. Without him and i'd say bye bye to bitcointalk. With the amount of followers you got and the attraction you have I think it would be a huge loss for not only this forum but Bitcoin as a whole if your thoughts are only released to an elite few.

Concerning the quality here I think it's partly because we are currently in a "boring" period for bitcoin. Much like the period may-aug last year. People are just not putting that much energy into producing quality posts. When the steam starts coming back I bet the quality will increase even with more newcomers.

[nickenburg]

THIS PLACE IS ALMOST DEAD. JUST LIKE MTGOX.

I started lurking in Bitcointalk when I contemplated buying bitcoins the first time, during the 2011 bubble. Afterwards I made the purchase, and continued lurking through the plateau at $5, fall of Bitcoinica, Pirate@40, etc. until this thing started to interest me more and I registered late 2012.

I was really active in March-May 2013, and again starting October 2013. Now after 2,500 posts and 33 days of activity, I feel that not only my stay here, but even this very place, is coming to an end.

In the very beginning (of which I was not witnessing), the average IQ of the posters was probably +3.0 (145 if sd=15). That kind of community functions really well. But when Bitcoin started its exponential rise in the exchanges, exponentially more people were drawn in and given posting privileges. This started the slow but inevitable slide in the quality of discourse.

At first, a little-less-smart people respect the oldtimers, and fit in well. Afterwards one level less smart people enter in, and soon the oldtimers who actually know about things are outnumbered such that they cannot keep the average level of discussion up, and it reverts to the level of the newcomers. In the next stage the oldtimers are so far above the newcomers that meaningful discussion is not even possible, and at this point they segregate themselves to speak actual matters somewhere else, leaving the education of the forum to middle-knowledgeable people like me.

As recently as a year ago, people were laughing at me here, because my mouth was bigger than the actual knowledge. Now they respect me (except the trolls that are so much below me that they don't recognize it). But talking about the forum, it is a terrible thing that the people who know stuff are inundated with junk, and leaving. And now I am thinking the same.

Perhaps this is the way things go. My friend who knows the lifecycle of Internet forums, has explained that ever-expansion and quality cannot remain in the same place. In theory this could maybe, possibly, have been remedied long time ago by guarding the posting rights carefully. Now it is almost certainly too late, and the new forum software after minimum 12 months will not come on time to bring the lost contributors back.

This is a lamentation. Not a suggestion, nor a call to action. Sorry.

There are other communities available, I am a member of one, and if you really burn for Bitcoin and the economy it enables, shoot a PM with some kind of introduction.

Im a new in the community to, and already have read alot of your posts,
I really like how you gave some insight and expect bitcoin to be very high in the future.
I already learned alot from you and it would be a shame if you left the forum.
Keep it up man!

[jayspin]

I'm relatively new here, although I've been a long time Lurker as well, and I must say I agree with rpietila. This whole section has become little more than an epic trollfest. Scrolling through all the noise and reading the same troll threads over and over has become tiresome. If I wanted to waste my time participating in nonsense banter and kindergarten joke memes, I'd go to 4chan. I rarely visit this place anymore these days because it has become a big dump full of silly.

I don't have anything to say against some fun every once in a while, but it has clearly gone overboard on here. I fully understand your reasoning and your moving away from this... sometimes it's just time to move on.

[sgbett]

But Risto! that would be like abandoning the internets because it is full of adverts, malware, and spam SEO sites

Stick it out, filter the noise, it  is what it is, and what you make of it x

I don't necessarily agree with what people say, but I find it imperative that I read their points of view so I can better understand and challenge my own.

[cAPSLOCK]

But Risto! that would be like abandoning the internets because it is full of adverts, malware, and spam SEO sites

Stick it out, filter the noise, it  is what it is, and what you make of it x

I don't necessarily agree with what people say, but I find it imperative that I read their points of view so I can better understand and challenge my own.

Internet forums are what internet forums are.  And they evolve and change because of zeitgeist.  People fall in love with a culture and feel pain when it evolves into something new.  I've seen it a million times.

I would be willing to bet I fall into the "low-iq" hoard the OP is complaining about, at least in his eyes.  And I am frankly OK with that because I am not here to please him, and he is welcome to delete my posts in his thread.

That said I have two points which I think are salient.

First, there are some of us who indeed HAVE been around for a while, but who have not contributed on the level of the OP.  That is what it is too...  and to be honest not everyone CAN contribute that way, and it's not just that they are dumb.  In fact I feel a bit of disgust whenever these sorts of elitist sounding ideas come forth.  On the other hand there IS a bitcoin elite, and an old guard.

Which brings the second point.  Bitcoin ABSOLUTELY NEEDS to be something that the simpler folks can understand, embrace, and use.  You can't claim to want to bring BTC to the mainstream and then bag out when they start showing up.

That said I respect OP, and his point in this complaint.  He is obviously free to feel yhe way he does and it is understandable.  Go in peace rpietila.  Or stay.  Others will rise up to fill the empty spots as needed.  Whichever.

[smoothie]

Mtgox is in a much worse position than this forum.

There will always be someone saying unintelligent things. Just how the world works.

[chriswilmer]

I think any curious observer of Bitcoin would be as interested in the postings of trolls as the postings of wise men. All of the posts are empirical data that may give insights to the continued growth of Bitcoin and its impact on society.

[notme]

At first, a little-less-smart people respect the oldtimers, and fit in well. Afterwards one level less smart people enter in, and soon the oldtimers who actually know about things are outnumbered such that they cannot keep the average level of discussion up, and it reverts to the level of the newcomers. In the next stage the oldtimers are so far above the newcomers that meaningful discussion is not even possible, and at this point they segregate themselves to speak actual matters somewhere else, leaving the education of the forum to middle-knowledgeable people like me.

I'm going to push back on this comment a little. Haven't you mentioned that you quit your career in order that you could educate people full-time about bitcoin?

If so, then it seems you've already tasked yourself with such a responsibility. If it truly is the task of the earlier adopters to spread the word, then segregating yourself off from newcomers seems antithetical to your mission.

I'm sure there are very good reasons for the "high-level of knowledge" posters to congregate. But there are also very good reasons for them to stay and fight the good fight.

Any educating I have done on these forums has been rehashing information that is already publicly available and easily found with a google search.  People are just lazy, and if the want to learn they need to put in some effort themselves.  People who already know the details are busy working on software and platforms to increase usability and flexibility.  Tutoring newbies isn't the best use of our time, and we didn't have anyone do it for us.  We took some initiative to seek out what we desired to know.

Also, having been around since 2010, I can say unequivocally that Bitcoin doesn't need sales and marketing.  Bitcoin needs software and systems.  Without those, it won't even keep pace with natural word of mouth growth.  Any sales and marketing at this point is putting the cart before the horse and only adds to volatility as speculative rent seeking usage outpaces transactional usage.  Bitcoin sells itself, and anything you might want to know about it is already in the public domain.

[conspirosphere.tk]

well I hope I did not troll too hard. My intention was just to keep the debate going.
I'm also a fan of rpietila

[fonzie]

SUMMARY:

TROLLS 1 -RPIETILA 0

 

[Trolololo]

Risto, if you think that que IQ of the forum has dropped significantly, I can guarantee you that it will be much worse by next year!

Personally, I read carefully all your posts. Two times at least. And I also save them.

From several months ago, I have been following 4 users in different forums, and you all are leaving at the same time. Maybe that's how things are. You have been giving more, by far, than you have been receiving.

If you are going to post in other forums, I would like to be able to read your comments there. So, please, PM me the forum you are going to post to.

Thank you.

---------

Coming back to AT, every time seems clearer to me that the correction after November's bubble (Bitstamp) is more and more similar to correction after April's bubble. The shape and times of the chart are quite similar.

So, if my Fibos are correct, dipping a little below 500 (I expect 480) before end of March is more and more probable, and I'm increasing my positions on that probability.

Thanks again for your contribution, Risto.