rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[jayspin]

what happened to this thread? Or maybe I should ask... what happened to this forum?

[MAbtc]

what happened to this thread? Or maybe I should ask... what happened to this forum?

I hear it. I'm about to throw in the towel. I figured it would turn around like it did last year, but it's become unbearable trying to eek anything useful or interesting out of this forum anymore. To anyone interested in technical analysis, I suggest hanging out in the TradingView chat. It's much more fulfilling.

[BitChick]

from here will the exponential rate of growth increase or decrease? that is the million dollar question.

Taxi drivers in NYC are almost invariably immigrants, and generally make remittances to families in their country of origin.  In short, primary use cases for bitcoin.  I live in NYC half-time and every time I take a protracted cab ride, such as to or from the airport, I ask the driver if he has ever heard of Bitcoin.  So far, of roughly 20 polled, not one had heard of bitcoin before I introduced them to it. 

When bitcoin hits 5k USD, do you think that will make the news?  I think it will a big news item.  The people who missed out on buying before the run to 5k will feel remorse, and after much diligence will finally decide to buy all the bitcoin they can as it crashes down to 2k.  Meanwhile all those who decide not to buy because it is too expensive will sit on the sidelines while it runs to 17k.  Then they will feel remorse, and buy it down to 8k. 

This cycle can repeat at least 5 times before the growth slows, in any scenario that leads to universal acceptance.  I think the next cycle will be on par with the previous one, but the next two will be much broader.  After that it will depend on the condition of sovereigns.  In a hyperinflation or a deflationary debt crisis the acceleration will continue to a bitcoin singularity, and fiat will end.  If sovereigns manage to keep up a good face, by the fourth cycle we will see decceleration of growth, but continuing gradual and modest growth.  It won't explode again until a fiat crisis.  Historically it appears that an eventual fiat crisis is inevitable.  Due to globalization effects, it is increasingly likely to be world-wide.

Much wisdom here.  I concur.

[MAbtc]

The bullish move I expected here is looking stronger than originally expected. Very nice bounce at key supports, not much pullback.



Close this 4H candle or two above this zone, and I may not be looking to exit that long in the 600s. I like some additional confirmation before getting too bullish, though....

[smoothie]

here comes the slow grind higher until we are approaching a new ATH in June or July of this year.

[billyjoeallen]

here comes the slow grind higher until we are approaching a new ATH in June or July of this year.

As soon as it becomes apparent that we are in for another ramp, front-runners will accelerate the cycle. Therefore I predict the next ATH will be in April or May and the new peak will be proportionally lower, between $1800 and $4,000. 

[chessnut]

here comes the slow grind higher until we are approaching a new ATH in June or July of this year.

As soon as it becomes apparent that we are in for another ramp, front-runners will accelerate the cycle. Therefore I predict the next ATH will be in April or May and the new peak will be proportionally lower, between $1800 and $4,000. 

What is incredible is that the last three bubbles have assumed clearly the same shape and form on the log chart. if the price history is anything to go by, which clearly it is, then the next ATH should be 3 months after the dip. that means June is the month. Any time in May would not surprise me, but an ATH in April would delightfully surprise me.

[vokain]

here comes the slow grind higher until we are approaching a new ATH in June or July of this year.

As soon as it becomes apparent that we are in for another ramp, front-runners will accelerate the cycle. Therefore I predict the next ATH will be in April or May and the new peak will be proportionally lower, between $1800 and $4,000. 

i hope so

[GigaCoin]

I never understood the criticism against rpietila, people like kkaspar criticize the fact he's covered in silver and Gold, well like any wealthy person they worked hard to achieve that and took the right risks and he's free to express himself however he likes it's no one's business.

As for my Bitcoin price expectations, as i stated in my other threads i believe $380-$400 was indeed the bottom. I provided chart analysis in the thread "Febraury $500" which played out pretty accurately, We may revisit $400 only if we encounter further major bad news. I recall in the $50 bottom in April bubble was revisited about 3-4 times but always shot up back to $70+ almost instantly. I don't see a rally in April because of the damage MtGox and various countless other Bitcoin services being hacked (100's of Millions of Dollars investor money lost) and with the media pretty much killing Bitcoin's image, all that damage needs time to heal.

My outlook for the next rally (breaking ATH) is more towards June onwards, hopefully more good news start flowing by then as Crypto becomes regulated in the States and Wallstreet starts investing, it also makes sense in a way since it will provide more time for regulated exchanges with large capital to pop up.

I am also very positive about Litecoin on the long run (despite most people claiming it's dead). I see the ratio vs btc almost doubling in the coming months.

 

[TERA]

The vision with the castle is that it would be a Bitcoin enclave. We would buy land around it and repair and erect buildings and make a small community living there physically. For many - me included - it would be a second or third home. Estonia is very conducive to business and corporate tax is 0%.

The first humble project will be the restoration of some bedrooms (for 30), a restaurant (for 50) and conference facilities (for 50) in the East wing.

Risto school of bitcraft and coinery.

[rpietila]

And now, back to the very original OP'ish style...

Today's cigar was Partagas Serie E no. 2, although I don't know what the number means. It tastes like a Partagas, which is good. Yesterday's Montecristo Open Eagle looks nice, but tasted like a Montecristo, which I don't like. It is sad; it would suit my first name, but the taste is just not to my liking. Perhaps the least enjoyable of the Cubans.. No wine, not even tea.

They opened a new coffee shop right across the street from my office. I only know 3 places in the downtown with raw cakes, and the 2 are near Senaatintori tourist area. What a nice surprise that this addition is just next to my club! A coffee, piece of cake and bar of chocolate is 14 euros, which I know to be the cheapest here. Service is very friendly in all of the places. Some time ago a very ordinary Mojito cost me 16 euros in Helsinki, so in general the city is not too affordable.

What I am working on right now is to get the reparations project in Malla started. We have a good team, and after it gets going, I'll have a few months to concentrate on making the web and community started. We will have the grand opening some time late summer.

I am also about to write an e-book(let) about the Economic History of Bitcoin, with Sirius.

Haven't had time to think much about the price. It seems that the markets have pretty much accepted the 600 level for now. Every day that passes without anything happening, reinforces the price because we are currently significantly below the trendline (814 as of this writing). A further dip or flashcrash may come, but it is difficult to tell when, and how low would it go. Going all your trading position into Bitcoin now is the right move. The trendline will cross the Bitstamp ATH of 1163 in May 1st, 2014.

The general mood towards Bitcoin is hostile now. If we are not willing to go lower in price under these conditions, it is almost certain that we will go violently up after a few months. I don't believe April will yet see any sustained rally, but May-June starts to be a possibility. After the rally starts, it has historically lasted only 1-2 months, and I think that from breaking the ATH to making a new one will take only 3 weeks. I would think the new top is reached June-July, and measure 3000-7000.

I am on the opinion that these self-similar market movements are inevitable for Bitcoin, and several almost similar cycles will still happen, as exponentially more people hear, get interested, and invest into bitcoins, leading to divestment by existing investors, bubble topping, and response by those who don't like Bitcoin, after the next wave comes and tide rises again.

TL;DR: Buy, because there is confusion on the streets.

[F-bernanke]

Thanks for your view rpietla, I agree.

Interesting report from Goldman Sachs: "Bitcoin could theoretically save the economy over $100Billion per annum"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101486222

[chessnut]

very interesting to me right now is the LTCBTC chart. LTCBTC looks similar to BTCUSD...... Litecoin could be trying to tell us something very important, although I don't see how it could be more than temporary.

litecoin must strive against the forces of the network effect, but it's rational value is 1/4 of bitcoins ($150 @600), perhaps plus a little bit of speedy transaction value.

I would like to think that Bitcoin will win the battle, as it is well ahead, but the chart is alarming. my eyes are peeled on that, it could be worth a short term scalp before bitcoin takes the reigns again.

[TERA]

but it's rational value is 1/4 of bitcoins ($150 @600),

Can you explain why litecoin is supposed to be 1/4 of bitcoin? I understand "the max coins of ltc is 1/4 the max coins of bitcoin" but this logic is flawed.
1. Litecoin does not have anywhere near the same adoption level as Bitcoin. They do not have the same fundamentals. How can you make a comparison involving only the supply side but not the demand side?
2. There are actually 8 times more Litecoins mined per day than Bitcoin, not 4, and the daily supply is a big determiner of price.
3. Bitcoin has a long history in which much of bitcoin is hoarded forever or lost. It is theorized only a small fraction of bitcoins trade on the market. Litecoin, on the other hand, doesn't have as many coins lost. Almost its entire supply trades on the market, which is a huge amount of coins.

[chessnut]

but it's rational value is 1/4 of bitcoins ($150 @600),

Can you explain why litecoin is supposed to be 1/4 of bitcoin? I understand "the max coins of ltc is 1/4 the max coins of bitcoin" but this logic is flawed.
1. Litecoin does not have anywhere near the same adoption level as Bitcoin. They do not have the same fundamentals. How can you make a comparison involving only the supply side but not the demand side?
2. There are actually 8 times more Litecoins mined per day than Bitcoin, not 4, and the daily supply is a big determiner of price.
3. Bitcoin has a long history in which much of bitcoin is hoarded forever or lost. It is theorized only a small fraction of bitcoins trade on the market. Litecoin, on the other hand, doesn't have as many coins lost. Almost its entire supply trades on the market, which is a huge amount of coins.

............I did mention that bitcoin was ahead by the network effect......... if you consider the whole sentence at once the logic is not flawed. I do not expect Litecoin to reach 1/4 of the value of bitcoin, but there is a force driving it there, and other forces driving it back.

when bitcoin hits the ceiling in terms of USD value, will the world accept forever that 1BTC= 40 LTC when there are only 4x as much? again, it is a binary move, litecoin will claw to parity with bitcoin over time, or it will fall to zero.

[rpietila]

when bitcoin hits the ceiling in terms of USD value, will the world accept forever that 1BTC= 40 LTC when there are only 4x as much? again, it is a binary move, litecoin will claw to parity with bitcoin over time, or it will fall to zero.

I don't think it is that easy. Fiat currencies' market caps are big and small, and have some relation to their underlying economies, respectively. They also fluctuate against each other.

If LTC userbase is roughly constant 1/10 of BTC, and # of LTC in circulation is 4 times more, then it is realistic to assume that the ratio would be 1:40 perpetually.

The only way for LTC to achieve parity with USD is to actually make every present and future BTC holder to actually hold (an equal value of) LTC, which is quite ridiculous, don't you think so?

[aminorex]

If LTC userbase is roughly constant 1/10 of BTC, and # of LTC in circulation is 4 times more, then it is realistic to assume that the ratio would be 1:40 perpetually.

Naively, 1:400 would reasonable under those assumptions, due to the network size (in active wallets) and Metcalfe's Law.  But Metcalfe's Law might be subtly yet importantly different in this case:  LTC's value is primarily derived from ease of exchange with BTC.  Does that mean LTC inherits BTC's network effect?  That might undermine the influence of both the division of the supply among a smaller number of holders and the smaller number of counter-parties for transaction, but perhaps each to a different degree.  I'm guessing that there are off-the-shelf models for this, derived to analyze pegged currencies in the fiat world, but I'm not familiar with them.

[mmitech]

when bitcoin hits the ceiling in terms of USD value, will the world accept forever that 1BTC= 40 LTC when there are only 4x as much? again, it is a binary move, litecoin will claw to parity with bitcoin over time, or it will fall to zero.

I don't think it is that easy. Fiat currencies' market caps are big and small, and have some relation to their underlying economies, respectively. They also fluctuate against each other.

If LTC userbase is roughly constant 1/10 of BTC, and # of LTC in circulation is 4 times more, then it is realistic to assume that the ratio would be 1:40 perpetually.

The only way for LTC to achieve parity with USD is to actually make every present and future BTC holder to actually hold (an equal value of) LTC, which is quite ridiculous, don't you think so?

I do hold more value in LTC than in BTC, it is true that the current inflation of LTC is 8 times higher than BTC, but the huge trading volume that matches and surpass the BTC trading volume means that there is a big chance for growth,  I did also notice that the sell/buy amounts are shrinking more and more with the huge volume, which could means that LTC is changing hands, which is good.

I usually don't like to compare BTC with LTC, this really doesn't work, BTC has a first mover advantage, network effect, loyalty.... but LTC offer a 2nd choice and I do like choices, and to be honest, name any legitimate alts that have a real development going ? really few if any.... 


I have been watching this chart for few months now, and I decided lately to invest a bit more into LTC, best decision ever 





 

[keithers]

I am holding about a 70% BTC, 30% LTC portfolio.   I have been much more profitable on my LTC because of my dollar cost average of everything.   Obviously, it is also because I was a little bit behind on my timing for buying the majority of my BTC.   I don't think LTC will ever reach 1/4 of the value of BTC, but the ratio will most likely increase to significantly higher levels than now.   I think it is mainly attractive because of the confirmation times as well as the psychological thought that it is the "next best thing"  for people who feel they missed the boat with BTC

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

I am holding about a 70% BTC, 30% LTC portfolio.   I have been much more profitable on my LTC because of my dollar cost average of everything.   Obviously, it is also because I was a little bit behind on my timing for buying the majority of my BTC.   I don't think LTC will ever reach 1/4 of the value of BTC, but the ratio will most likely increase to significantly higher levels than now.   I think it is mainly attractive because of the confirmation times as well as the psychological thought that it is the "next best thing"  for people who feel they missed the boat with BTC

LoL, Who in his sane brains will think that LTC is the "next best thing"?? 
LTC has been here long time ago and it has already his massive pumps and dumps. It is more reasonable to take a look to any of those 2º generation cryptos like nxt, etherium, xcp and so on. Most of them probably fail loudly, but I am sure one of these is called to be the "next best thing".