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Author Topic: 1GH/s, 20w, $500 — Butterflylabs, is it a scam?  (Read 116507 times)
P4man
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November 09, 2011, 10:54:36 AM
 #301

Naysayers put your money where your mouth is.  Bets so far are clearly in favor of BFL not only being legit, but even going to live up to all its claims and in time. Stop saying you are sure its a scam unless you put some coins on it:

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=141


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bulanula
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November 09, 2011, 11:02:12 AM
 #302

Naysayers put your money where your mouth is.  Bets so far are clearly in favor of BFL not only being legit, but even going to live up to all its claims and in time. Stop saying you are sure its a scam unless you put some coins on it:

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=141



What are you talking about ?

Total agree bets: 3.25
Total disagree bets: 6.00
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November 09, 2011, 11:18:12 AM
 #303


What are you talking about ?

Total agree bets: 3.25
Total disagree bets: 6.00


The statement is BFL will NOT ship a card that matches their specs in time.  6 BTC  disagree with that, so the majority so far believes they will ship in time and meet specs.

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November 09, 2011, 11:22:19 AM
 #304


I am interested in this, but I do not understand why the dead line to bet is Jan 1st. Why would anyone place a bet before Dec 31st just in case some new info comes out?

Because its time weighted. Early bets weigh much more than late bets.

Quote
Also, if I put in lets say 1000 bitcoins, I will only win 5 or so?   (assuming no on bets heavy the other way)

Of course the assumption is wrong. If you bet 1000 bitcoins, I and others will bet against that, even people who might be skeptical. The final ratio is a good indication of what people actually expect.  So why dont you start with 100 BTC, heck, just 10BTC and see what happens?

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November 09, 2011, 11:40:49 AM
 #305


I am interested in this, but I do not understand why the dead line to bet is Jan 1st. Why would anyone place a bet before Dec 31st just in case some new info comes out?

Because its time weighted. Early bets weigh much more than late bets.

Quote
Also, if I put in lets say 1000 bitcoins, I will only win 5 or so?   (assuming no on bets heavy the other way)

Of course the assumption is wrong. If you bet 1000 bitcoins, I and others will bet against that, even people who might be skeptical. The final ratio is a good indication of what people actually expect.  So why dont you start with 100 BTC, heck, just 10BTC and see what happens?

I do not really like the idea of putting money down and not knowing what I will get back if I win. There is no way to know until after. Also only 90% of the losing bets are distributed.

I will stand with my original offer of a bet with Inaba holding the coin and testing the product. I will also give Butterfly Labs 2 to 1 odds just for the fun of it:)

Heck for the first 10 bitcoins I will give anyone 2 to 1 odds with Inaba holding the coin and him testing the product. He will have to get it before 2 months from this date (he can take longer to test it, but no more than an extra month) and also the product must be sold at the stated price. and have a 20% variance on what is claimed.   If anyone is interested let me know!

Price is not an issue right now. I just cannot see how anyone can get 500 mhash/s out of a single ASIC or FPGA. Not even the 5870 gets that much. The numbers are all a big fairy tale.
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November 09, 2011, 12:05:20 PM
 #306

Wouldn't it be a great idea for the scammer to get lots of money in 'escrew' for a 'bet' and do a runner with that money along with all the pre-order money. Double win.
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November 09, 2011, 12:20:59 PM
 #307


Blah blah I do not really like the idea of putting money down and not knowing what I will get back if I win blah blah

blah blah blah


You were so sure you would bet $10.000 but you dont like odds for betting 10BTC

blah blah blah

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November 09, 2011, 12:45:58 PM
 #308

Price is not an issue right now. I just cannot see how anyone can get 500 mhash/s out of a single ASIC or FPGA. Not even the 5870 gets that much. The numbers are all a big fairy tale.

Um the speed isn't the issue at all.  Price & wattage are.  Homegrown developers have gotten 200MH out of Spartan 150 which is pretty low end FPGA.  A high end FPGA like a Virtex6-300 would certainly be capable of 500MH/s+.  Of course Virtex6-300 is going to cost $600 ea so you are talking $1200 just for the pair of chips when you add rest of components, labor, and retail markup probably $1600+ not $500.

Hell you likely could get 1GH/s+ from the most powerful FPGA and maybe 2GH/s+ from a custom built ASIC, so the nominal speed claim isn't what is unbelievable.  The wattage and price as the unbelievable claims.  50MH/W is 250% of the best anyone else has achieved and $0.5 per MH is incredibly low price point.  There aren't magical ultra cheap and ultra powerful FPGA lying around.  While there are volume discounts, "volume" means thousands if not tens of thousands of chips not 200.

For a company which didn't have a website until this year and wasn't incorporated until August these are some high claims but don't confuse it with impossible.  It is 100% possible today just not at the price points and wattage they are claiming.
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Gerald Davis


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November 09, 2011, 01:46:18 PM
 #309

Goat you aren't going to bet anything so just shut up please.

There is a very easy to use escrow system already.  You could bet 1 to 1000 BTC.  Right now if you bet less than 2BTC you would get better than even money.  Remember payout is based on final bet amounts.  A large bet (say 100 BTC) would give people taking the other side huge odds and that will increase demand in the bet driving up the reward.  So it isn't like even if you bet 100 BTC it would be locked in a 50:1 odds.  50:1 odds would encourage bets and bring that close to even money. 

So either bet or just shut up.  Stop making stupid and outlandish claims of thousands of BTC.  Nobody is impressed.
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November 09, 2011, 01:54:21 PM
 #310


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Gerald Davis


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November 09, 2011, 02:01:48 PM
 #311

BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH I am big and powerful.

BTW I am betting on the side of it being a scam not legit.  It still doesn't make your trolling and lame behavior any less trollish and lame.
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November 09, 2011, 03:03:54 PM
 #312

maybe 2GH/s+ from a custom built ASIC, so the nominal speed claim isn't what is unbelievable.

An OT tangent really, but this is ridiculously and stupidly conservative.  FPGAs are quite neat— but in terms of silicon and power they are enormously wasteful. It's trivial and expected to get >>10x better on both fronts going from FPGA to a proper ASIC.   Without the inefficiency of the FPGA in the way the circuit for a miner is rather small so a mining ASIC on modern process would be thermally limited.  Even in cheap packaging you're going to easily do better than 2GH/s.
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November 09, 2011, 03:07:49 PM
 #313

You think I make less than $3000 a year? I mine at nearly 10Ghash/S

And yeah, I wont be able to bet if no one is willing to bet with me. I stated the terms of my bet before this last option was set up. I wanted all bets done in 10 days, now 8 days. My terms are very reasonable. I will give you 10 to 1 odds as well if you want. I will have the coins to Inaba in less than 24 hours if you want.

I will also bet anyone 10 to 1 odds on this just to prove that I will bet. Just one person. First come first serve.

however Taxes, BF Labs and P4man I will also do the 10 to 1 odds if any of you are willing to risk even 1 coin on this


i already bet 5btc on a bet i didnt formulate and didnt want to make . waiting for your 50

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November 09, 2011, 03:16:49 PM
 #314

maybe 2GH/s+ from a custom built ASIC, so the nominal speed claim isn't what is unbelievable.

An OT tangent really, but this is ridiculously and stupidly conservative.  FPGAs are quite neat— but in terms of silicon and power they are enormously wasteful. It's trivial and expected to get >>10x better on both fronts going from FPGA to a proper ASIC.   Without the inefficiency of the FPGA in the way the circuit for a miner is rather small so a mining ASIC on modern process would be thermally limited.  Even in cheap packaging you're going to easily do better than 2GH/s.


Sorry for being clear I was talking about structured ASICs (i.e. Altera Harccopy series).  Your right a true custom ASIC would have massively higher throughput but honestly that is a pipedream anytime in next decade.  Bitcoin mining is simply too small to warrant the enormous up front costs and risks of a custom ASIC design.

On the topic of ASICS it also makes no sense to use both FPGA and ASIC to do hashing so BF Labs talk of using both FPGA and ASIC is simply marketing double speak.  IF they have a $1.85 USB controller it is an ASIC chip so technically any board is going to be a blend of ASICs and FPGAs.
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November 09, 2011, 03:23:09 PM
 #315

The wattage is not "similar".  Other FPGA designs are getting about 20MH/W not 50MH/W. 250% improvement in electrical efficiency is massive.
Other designs use Spartan-6, and Xilinx's tools make a real pig's ear out of placing and routing Bitcoin miners on it. I suspect this is probably quite bad for power efficiency. Other FPGAs are better at this, the trouble is they're also quite a lot more expensive at least if you're buying them from distributors.

There aren't magical ultra cheap and ultra powerful FPGA lying around.  While there are volume discounts, "volume" means thousands if not tens of thousands of chips not 200.
There might actually be. For examle I have a suspicion that the manufacturing costs of Spartan-6 chips might actually be higher than a better-performing Virtex-6; Bitcoin mining is very inefficient at making uses of resources on Spartan-6 and Virtex-6 should be a much better fit. However, because of the way Xilinx segment their markets and price their chips it's cheaper to use the inefficient Spartan-6.

Quad XC6SLX150 Board: 860 MHash/s or so.
SIGS ABOUT BUTTERFLY LABS ARE PAID ADS
P4man
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November 09, 2011, 04:57:02 PM
 #316

You sent Inaba 5 coins already? I will give you 10 to 1 odds only one the first bitcoin. The other 4 I will give you 2 to 1. So he will have 18 from me  within 24 hours.

I am very glad to see that you are willing to match my bet on the terms I set!

Thanks for putting your money where your mouth is.

Sadly it is night time for me, I will respond in the morning.

Peace!

Are you that thick? No, I bet on http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=141 where you currently get far better odds than the 10-1. In fact odds are in your favor, so cough up those coin or just shut up. BTW, its hysterical how you have moved from wanting to bet $10.000 no matter the odds to haggling over single digit bitcoin amounts now.

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November 09, 2011, 05:18:34 PM
 #317


Inaba has already approved this and has the address in the thread.


I will willing to bet the other guy the 12 coins he offered to be but he backed down, not me. I will still be that guy and even give him 2 to 1 odds just to show how willing I am to bet.

Thanks,

  The other guy is Sadpandatech, me, I, this guy here.  There is a big difference between no response and 'backing down'. I apologize if my willingness to gamble is not driven by my ego. ;p  I took the time to reflect more on the ground rules after reading your following posts which responded to my '2 week?' with a 2 month time. And then the 10 days you added for others to bet. If you read the entire post of mine you will notice that I stated I was not inclined to having even a small amount of BTC tied up for too long a time frame. Beleive it or not, I have better things to do with my little BTC. =) I am absolutely not a gambler. Therefor, with this extended time frame I am only willing to bet 2BTC on my side against your 4BTC. I am however an avid follower of 'numbers'. I love crunching them. Anyways to the point, as I want to be very certain we are in agreeance of the terms.

  2 to 1 Odds against. Inaba to act as escrow. 2 months +8 days left now until bet default end. 25% spread on wattage, 25% spread on hash rate from the stated baseline of 1050MHs and 50w. Bet is met/lost either when BFL provide '*acceptable' proof or disproof of claim, or defaulted at the end of 2 months and 8 days if no unit is provided to verify claim. A total of 6 BTC to be held in escrow and sent in total to the winner or returned to betters if bet default.


  *acceptable - A 'trusted' member of the community must provide the results of a unit test. Unit to be one stated by BFL to be of the same physical nature as the one the stated numbers are for. Unit shall be operating no less than a period of 24h, while carefully monitored for MH and watt usage over said 24h time period.

  Did I miss anything? Are you going to back out? You will find my transaction of 2BTC to; 1CzKrTnncqVuviR9iyBBL5KBJkHUtv4Sjp
 here; http://blockexplorer.com/address/1CzKrTnncqVuviR9iyBBL5KBJkHUtv4Sjp



    Sincerely,
      Derek (not a gambler)

If you're not excited by the idea of being an early adopter 'now', then you should come back in three or four years and either tell us "Told you it'd never work!" or join what should, by then, be a much more stable and easier-to-use system. - GA
It is being worked on by smart people. -DamienBlack
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November 09, 2011, 06:20:27 PM
 #318

FPGA is used exclusively with the actual costs of the boards being designed somewhat equivalent. Mhash's are about a quarter of the Butterfly labs card though but wattage is similar, they do say they use a combination of ASIC and FPGA.

The wattage is not "similar".  Other FPGA designs are getting about 20MH/W not 50MH/W. 250% improvement in electrical efficiency is massive.

Versus ~1000 Watts for GPU.

It was a cunning plan to have the funny man be the money fan of the punning clan.
1J13NBTKiV8xrAo2dwaD4LhWs3zPobhh5S
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November 09, 2011, 06:35:39 PM
 #319

FPGA is used exclusively with the actual costs of the boards being designed somewhat equivalent. Mhash's are about a quarter of the Butterfly labs card though but wattage is similar, they do say they use a combination of ASIC and FPGA.

The wattage is not "similar".  Other FPGA designs are getting about 20MH/W not 50MH/W. 250% improvement in electrical efficiency is massive.

Versus ~1000 Watts for GPU.
wat
pl0x to be showing me a GPU that noms 1000 watts, k?

Mining Rig Extraordinaire - the Trenton BPX6806 18-slot PCIe backplane [PICS] Dead project is dead, all hail the coming of the mighty ASIC!
bulanula
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November 09, 2011, 07:21:53 PM
 #320

FPGA is used exclusively with the actual costs of the boards being designed somewhat equivalent. Mhash's are about a quarter of the Butterfly labs card though but wattage is similar, they do say they use a combination of ASIC and FPGA.

The wattage is not "similar".  Other FPGA designs are getting about 20MH/W not 50MH/W. 250% improvement in electrical efficiency is massive.

Versus ~1000 Watts for GPU.

He probably has seen the 7xxx series flop just like Bulldozer Smiley

Starting to regret AMD took over ATI Sad
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