1GH/s, 20w, $500 — Butterflylabs, is it a scam?

[runeks]

Could they be building the boards on request?
Certainly it would seem that way - if we assume it's not a scam. Would there be anything wrong with them building the boards as they get in orders, instead of having x boards pre-built and ready to go?

[...]

In short, even if they could ship in 2 weeks after receiving the order now, it doesnt exactly hurt to have "4-8" weeks on their website. Particularly not with the holiday weeks almost upon us.

That sounds like a reasonable explanation as well.

But if we were to play with the thought that they were building the boards on demand (not the chips themselves) - at least in this pre-order phase - could this tell us anything about their technology? Would it even seem possible to do so, while selling them for $500?

No, I am no longer taking bets. When I offered them I said with in the next 10 days. You also have to understand that even if I win with P4man I just only break even in terms of US$. Bitcoins price fall is not great for this bet.

Im sure he will accept bets in $ too Goat.

Definitely.

[P4man]

But if we were to play with the thought that they were building the boards on demand (not the chips themselves) - at least in this pre-order phase - could this tell us anything about their technology? Would it even seem possible to do so, while selling them for $500?

I can think of no good reason for this. If they are sitting on 100s (or 1000s) of chips, they already have the PCBs, you have the equipment and personnel, you might as well assemble the boards. The only thing that might be produced on call is the alu housing, but even that doesnt seem very likely and wouldnt make much sense if their plan is to sell 100s or more of these.

[DeathAndTaxes]

But if we were to play with the thought that they were building the boards on demand (not the chips themselves) - at least in this pre-order phase - could this tell us anything about their technology? Would it even seem possible to do so, while selling them for $500?

Nobody hand builds boards for production.  Building costs are negligible, hand building is error prone, slow and expensive.  You may hand build the prototype and you may make a trial run of a dozen or so units (at very high cost) to make sure everything is right before begining production.  However the actual production is in as large of volume as you can afford to minimize production costs.

In volume build costs are low.  Less than $10 a board likely less than $2 per board given has small & "simple" the boards are.  The complexity and cost comes from the processor not the PCB, minor components, or assembly.   

So either they have hundreds of boards already completed or no boards (other than prototypes) completed.

[Matthew N. Wright]

If these devices are real, I'd buy a hundred of them myself.

Unfortunately, they're probably just going to take their butterfly wings and fly away with your money.

[Inaba]

I have not signed an NDA nor do I plan to and one has never been mentioned.  An NDA would be contrary to a public (as in not affiliated with the company) and unbiased test. 

I have not fully disclosed everything I have seen in regards to the drivers so far, just out of respect for their privacy prior to launching a product.  They have not asked me to do so in any way. 

I have not met them in person at this point, but I will be meeting someone from the company this evening, either for some live testing or at least for them to hand over a test unit for the evening for disassembly/pictures. 

As far as me being in on a scam, anyone who has dealt with me in the past knows that I'm definitely not about that, as I've had plenty of opportunity to scam people out of BTC and USD, and my IRL name and lots of details about me are available to many people who's had dealings with me.  It would be pretty easy to track me down if I rob someone or scam them... it would be epic and also epically (is that a word?) stupid of me! 

[Turbor]

Can't wait to see results  

[btc_artist]

I have not signed an NDA nor do I plan to and one has never been mentioned.  An NDA would be contrary to a public (as in not affiliated with the company) and unbiased test. 

I have not fully disclosed everything I have seen in regards to the drivers so far, just out of respect for their privacy prior to launching a product.  They have not asked me to do so in any way. 

I have not met them in person at this point, but I will be meeting someone from the company this evening, either for some live testing or at least for them to hand over a test unit for the evening for disassembly/pictures. 

So at this time, all you've seen is driver source code? Have you had a chance to review it?

As far as me being in on a scam, anyone who has dealt with me in the past knows that I'm definitely not about that, as I've had plenty of opportunity to scam people out of BTC and USD, and my IRL name and lots of details about me are available to many people who's had dealings with me.  It would be pretty easy to track me down if I rob someone or scam them... it would be epic and also epically (is that a word?) stupid of me! 

Agreed.

[btc_artist]

BFLabs, how long with the pre-order price on the single be good for?

[Inaba]

Yes, that's all I've seen and yes I've reviewed it.  I've not had a lot of time to go into minute detail and step through the code as it would potentially operate, but I see nothing nefarious in it. I informed them that whatever they sent me is what I would be compiling and using on my own hardware that they have not had access to prior to the test... so what I've reviewed is what I'll be using to conduct the test(s).  

Most of the code is actually already out in the Bitcoin community and well vetted, from what I can tell they've only made some minor changes to to accommodate the box as opposed to a GPU.  There's actually some optimization that can be done, I think, to speed things up.  If what they have now lives up to the claims, with code optimization, I think you could see an increase in hashing power.  But, that is purely speculation on my part.

I will inquire and I don't see any reason they would be opposed to releasing the code to other, more qualified individuals to review the code as well.  I will send them the same code I use to test, as opposed to BFL sending them code, assuming they (BFL) approves and someone is both qualified and willing to review.

[btc_artist]

I will inquire and I don't see any reason they would be opposed to releasing the code to other, more qualified individuals to review the code as well.  I will send them the same code I use to test, as opposed to BFL sending them code, assuming they (BFL) approves and someone is both qualified and willing to review.

I don't know about qualified, but I'm certainly willing to review it. I'm assuming it's C/C++.

[bulanula]

This is going to suck for my GPUs

But, I have 99% faith it is all a big elaborate scam

Can these :

-mine SolidCoins ?
-mine Litecoins ?
-hack WPA ?

Thanks !

[Turbor]

But, I have 99% faith it is all a big elaborate scam

Soon we'll know...

[bulanula]

But, I have 99% faith it is all a big elaborate scam

Soon we'll know...

Yeah well I don't know about you but in my part of the world the time is already 25 Nov and evening already. What time is it in Kansas or whatever ? Any announced time for the "magic" revelations ?

[Inaba]

It's about noon on the 25th here in KC.

I plan on meeting them in about 6 hours from now (or midnight UTC).  After that, we'll decide if we have enough time to do the live test or if we'll just do the hardware portion.

[Turbor]

There is always enough time 

[btc_artist]

Are other people also participating in this demo?  Or have there been other demos?  I just found this:

http://www.chugalug.org/widget/1739/BitForce%20product%20demo
http://www.chugalug.org/widget/1740/RE:%20BitForce%20product%20demo

[bulanula]

Are other people also participating in this demo?  Or have there been other demos?  I just found this:

http://www.chugalug.org/widget/1739/BitForce%20product%20demo
http://www.chugalug.org/widget/1740/RE:%20BitForce%20product%20demo

"Yes, the drivers are open source. Processing functions outside of sha256 are not supported."

Well I guess that kind of sucks. Good luck selling these after the hype / music is over. Might as well buy the damn coins then since the hardware can become just as useless just as soon if something else comes up etc.

[grubles]

Are other people also participating in this demo?  Or have there been other demos?  I just found this:

http://www.chugalug.org/widget/1739/BitForce%20product%20demo
http://www.chugalug.org/widget/1740/RE:%20BitForce%20product%20demo

"Yes, the drivers are open source. Processing functions outside of sha256 are not supported."

Well I guess that kind of sucks. Good luck selling these after the hype / music is over. Might as well buy the damn coins then since the hardware can become just as useless just as soon if something else comes up etc.

This is why I'm keeping my 5970s.

[bulanula]

Are other people also participating in this demo?  Or have there been other demos?  I just found this:

http://www.chugalug.org/widget/1739/BitForce%20product%20demo
http://www.chugalug.org/widget/1740/RE:%20BitForce%20product%20demo

"Yes, the drivers are open source. Processing functions outside of sha256 are not supported."

Well I guess that kind of sucks. Good luck selling these after the hype / music is over. Might as well buy the damn coins then since the hardware can become just as useless just as soon if something else comes up etc.

This is why I'm keeping my 5970s.

Indeed, as much as I would like to get rid of those noisy space heaters, the only reason I bought in the first place is because even if BTC went to 0 I still have something in the end to play games on etc. With these ( I suppose only the professional miners will want them, while the amateurs keep using GPUs that are not really that scalable in comparison to BFL products ) you get almost 0 resale value. If BTC fails then you fail as well .

[P4man]

Are other people also participating in this demo?  Or have there been other demos?  I just found this:

http://www.chugalug.org/widget/1739/BitForce%20product%20demo
http://www.chugalug.org/widget/1740/RE:%20BitForce%20product%20demo

Any idea what that is about? What is chugalug?