1GH/s, 20w, $500 — Butterflylabs, is it a scam?

[RandyFolds]

But betting that Goat wont be betting $10.000, thats zero risk. Have a look here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=49372.0

Goat's saying he is in debt and asking on this forum for a $1000 loan so he doesnt have to sell his GPUs. But one would believe he has $10.000 and he'd risk that on a bet?
Ha!

Then he better not hope the BitForce miner is real, or he'd become even more indebted:

$10000? Okay, I will pledge I will pay $10000 in cash on site or in bitcoin for this product if it works. After it is tested! I am well know in the KC area and known to have the cash on hand if needed.

Regarding the Bets of Bitcoin bet, I'd have to agree somewhat with Goat here; it's obviously not set up properly. Betting is allowed until January 1st, 2012. So if Butterfly Labs delivers within the 4 weeks time frame they promise as the earliest, anyone can go to that bet and bet 1000 BTC that they will deliver and take home some of the winnings, risk free. I know it's time weighted, so they'll make less money than the ones who made the early bets, but I argue that they shouldn't make any money at all, when they bet after outcome has been determined. The betting deadline for the bet should be way sooner, maybe in a week or so.

In my opinion, it's less than optimal to make a bet on something for which you don't know the odds. This is the case with Bets of Bitcoin. I could make a bet on Bets of Bitcoin thinking the odds are great, and someone who agrees with me could go in afterwards and bet 10 times as much, completely changing the odds for me. It doesn't make any sense to bet your money unless you know the odds beforehand, in my opinion.

^^Do sports books lock in the odds when you bet, or do they move with the line?

e: looks like the line moves constantly until the bet is placed and those are locked in as your official odds...the same should hold true on that site if it's designed correctly...which I kind of doubt.

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[runeks]

^ Every sports betting site I know presents the odds they are willing to give you and you can take them or leave them. They are not allowed to change them after you've bet. There'd be no sense in presenting odds in the first place if they could just change them afterwards.

By the way, BFL has released a more professional picture of their BitForce single (it's also on their front page):
Does the fan give us any leads? I mean, without knowing better, I'd think it wouldn't be necessary for a 20W device. Do FPGAs really give off that much heat that a fan is necessary? Or could it be for a CPU of some sort?

[RandyFolds]

Looks fancy. 20w is 20w...it probably needs a fan, especially in such a tight box. I know that a 50w aquarium heater can keep 10 gallons at ~78F when room temp is around 69F. If you touch it out of water, you'll leave some skin behind on the glass.

Regarding betting, last time I was in Vegas was during the NBA playoffs and I went to the book at the Sahara (stayed there right before they shuttered the doors...friggin' crazy free-for-all) to put a sawski on the Lakers taking it. Betting $20 would have returned $22...and people were still betting up a storm! I think even if you had floating odds, you'd have plenty of takers. Compulsive gamblers don't give a fuck whether they win a hundred or a thousand dollars, it's about the thrill of the game.

[fizzisist]

Regarding the Bets of Bitcoin bet, I'd have to agree somewhat with Goat here; it's obviously not set up properly. Betting is allowed until January 1st, 2012. So if Butterfly Labs delivers within the 4 weeks time frame they promise as the earliest, anyone can go to that bet and bet 1000 BTC that they will deliver and take home some of the winnings, risk free. I know it's time weighted, so they'll make less money than the ones who made the early bets, but I argue that they shouldn't make any money at all, when they bet after outcome has been determined. The betting deadline for the bet should be way sooner, maybe in a week or so.

In my opinion, it's less than optimal to make a bet on something for which you don't know the odds. This is the case with Bets of Bitcoin. I could make a bet on Bets of Bitcoin thinking the odds are great, and someone who agrees with me could go in afterwards and bet 10 times as much, completely changing the odds for me. It doesn't make any sense to bet your money unless you know the odds beforehand, in my opinion.

^^Do sports books lock in the odds when you bet, or do they move with the field?
[/quote]

Not sure about sports, but I know horse racing moves with the field, just like Bets of Bitcoin.

That's a good point about how to handle what happens if BFL delivers before the end date. It would make sense to end the bet then and distribute the winnings, but I'm not sure if Bets of Bitcoin does that.

[DeathAndTaxes]

By the way, BFL has released a more professional picture of their BitForce single (it's also on their front page):
Does the fan give us any leads? I mean, without knowing better, I'd think it wouldn't be necessary for a 20W device. Do FPGAs really give off that much heat that a fan is necessary? Or could it be for a CPU of some sort?

The fan is likely just over-engineering.  It looks like 120mm fan which are cheap.  Likely doesn't need a fan that big but it fits the case and it certainly won't hurt.  Likely made sense to just go w/ a bigger slower fan that fits.

[P4man]

Yep, 20W would need either a really big and expensive passive cooler, or a fan. Makes perfect sense to include a fan, especially if you are striving for high density boxes you can stack.

Looks pretty real to me. I notice Goat still  hasnt sent his 20 coins yet. I guess I shall not hold my breath .

As for betsofbitcoin. Yes, the bet is extremely poorly formulated. I had submitted a proper one that made sense, but it was rejected because of the word "scam" and I saw that one instead. I mistakenly thought they redacted mine to become that, and I was pretty angry at it, but I bet it anyway, since I had committed to it.. But they do have a time weighted bets, so betting early gives you a bigger share of the winnings. And I assume they will end betting once the outcome is certain, even if that is before the deadline. If not, yeah well.

[P4man]

The fan is likely just over-engineering.  It looks like 120mm fan which are cheap.  Likely doesn't need a fan that big but it fits the case and it certainly won't hurt.  Likely made sense to just go w/ a bigger slower fan that fits.

I think that box is a lot smaller than you think. Looks like 80mm at most. Have a look here:
http://butterflylabs.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/BF-Single-2.jpg

[sadpandatech]

The fan is likely just over-engineering.  It looks like 120mm fan which are cheap.  Likely doesn't need a fan that big but it fits the case and it certainly won't hurt.  Likely made sense to just go w/ a bigger slower fan that fits.

I think that box is a lot smaller than you think. Looks like 80mm at most. Have a look here:
http://butterflylabs.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/BF-Single-2.jpg

  Much agreed.

  I wonder how much thought they put into stacking though. They likely are targeting the 1-5 unit people with that price point and design. With that unit fully enclosed you can't stack in its normal orientation, one on top of the other. The legs make it hard to tell, but that enclosure wraps under them too. You could lay them on their back and stack that way, but I bet they got the darn plugs in thew back. >.<

  Edit; I also contacted them about buying them without the enclosure and they said they are not willing to do so... :/

[DeathAndTaxes]

I think that box is a lot smaller than you think. Looks like 80mm at most. Have a look here:
http://butterflylabs.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/BF-Single-2.jpg

You likely are right.  I was wondering why the "120mm fan" looked "thick".  It is because it isn't 120mm. 

[P4man]

Well I was actually thinking about that cluster box they had picture off. That would need fans for sure, and they use the same board.

As for stacking these, well, you could simply use standoffs.

I have to admit a few dozen of those nicely stacked would look good in my living room. Shame I cant afford it, and wouldnt be sure Id "bet" that much on mining bitcoins even if I could.

[RandyFolds]

I am pretty curious to see what happens. The plot is thickening considerably with these press releases. Delivery time still 4-8 weeks...convenient...

[DeathAndTaxes]

I am pretty curious to see what happens. The plot is thickening considerably with these press releases. Delivery time still 4-8 weeks...convenient...

Yup.  And people who ordered w/ paypal on day 1 now have less than three weeks to request a reversal/chargeback. 

[P4man]

I think its getting pretty obvious its not a scam. Its just too elaborate for a complete hoax. It could be in theory, but why would they make it so elaborate? Makes no sense to me.

One might question their performance claims, but think about it, if you accept they really have a decent product in the pipeline, why would deliberately lie about its performance? As I said earlier, even at half the performance/W and per dollar it would sell itself. No need for them to hurt their credibility and allow people refunds by making such bold claims when they guarantee them.

Nope, looks like Im making 20 BTC of goat. Oh wait, I wont of course. But I probably should .

[DeathAndTaxes]

I think its getting pretty obvious its not a scam. Its just too elaborate for a complete hoax. It could be in theory, but why would they make it so elaborate? Makes no sense to me.

It may not be a scam but to say it is too elaborate to be a hoax is a logical fallacy.  Just because most scams are so shitty they are immediately obvious doesn't mean they all have to be.  I mean by that logic Bernie Madoff was wrongly convicted.  He ran an entire office, and fake trading floor, printed out years worth of fake settlements, and fake trade reports, gave fake profits, and hired staff to process and manage all the fakeness.  Why make it so elaborate?

How much does it cost to put a non-functional PCB under some heat sinks and slap it in a case.  If you are an out of work college grad selling 100 nonexistent boards for $500 each = $50,000.  Not to bad for a couple months work.  Their website didn't even exist a couple months ago, it was a website for butterflies.

http://web.archive.org/web/20110128103811/http://butterflylabs.com/

http://web.archive.org/web/20070819180323/http://www.butterflylabs.com/

There is no corporation registered as "Butterfly Labs Inc." anywhere in the United States.  There is a "BF Labs Inc." in WY but that company didn't incorporate until August of this year.
https://wyobiz.wy.gov/Business/FilingDetails.aspx?FilingNum=2011-000606261

Strangely the website doesn't refer to the company as "BF Labs Inc." but as "Butterfly labs Inc." maybe a goof-up but you can't be "close".  If your company is incorporated as xyz then it is fradulent to represent yourself as another entity.  There is no DBA or fictitious business name filing in either MO or WY for any "Butterfly Labs Inc." so if they are "BF Labs Inc." (which could be butter fat testing labs Inc. for all we know) then the website is in error.

So it may be a real product and it may deliver on the promises but everything the company has done so far is suspicious and you can't say it ISN'T a scam.  I guess we will find out in 4-8 weeks.  BTW is that 4-8 weeks from today or 4-8 weeks from when the website began advertising 4-8 weeks?

[RandyFolds]

I think its getting pretty obvious its not a scam. Its just too elaborate for a complete hoax. It could be in theory, but why would they make it so elaborate? Makes no sense to me.

It may not be a scam but to say it is too elaborate to be a hoax is a logical fallacy.  Just because most scams are so shitty they are immediately obvious doesn't mean they all have to be.  I mean by that logic Bernie Madoff was wrongly convicted.  He ran an entire office, and fake trading floor, printed out years worth of fake settlements, and fake trade reports, gave fake profits, and hired staff to process and manage all the fakeness.  Why make it so elaborate?

How much does it cost to put a non-functional PCB under some heat sinks and slap it in a case.  If you are an out of work college grad selling 100 nonexistent boards for $500 each = $50,000.  Not to bad for a couple months work.  Their website didn't even exist 3 months ago, it was a website for butterflies.

Exactly. They could only be in all of $500 and some time on it. If street criminals are calling confused old people saying 'Abuela! Abuela! They have me in jail! You have to pay them so I can get out!' and fleecing them, I can only imagine that would be simple for someone of intelligence and EE competency to pull something this elaborate. Pictures don't prove anything. I will make you products all day that look good but don't work. All you need is a Maker-bot and a CNC router and you too can manufacture anything for appearances.

[runeks]

The box is 88x88 mm, so yes, it's a 80mm fan. I had hoped it would be silent though :\
I guess I can always throttle down the fan, I hope the hot chips have thermal sensors in them that I can probe. Yeah... I ordered one. I'm a sucker! Had a long-ish conversation with them by e-mail and they seemed honest enough, considering I paid through PayPal. I have a calender alert in 40 days, and will make sure to file for a charge back within the time frame, no matter what they say. If they are delayed, I'm sure they will refund my payment and allow me to make another payment, so as to not lose the 45 day charge back opportunity. If not, I'd know for sure they were on to something dishonest.

There's another pretty picture up by the way. Looks like the professional photographer they said would come by has been there (or they pulled out their proper cameras themselves instead of using their phones ):

[P4man]

It may not be a scam but to say it is too elaborate to be a hoax is a logical fallacy.  Just because most scams are so shitty they are immediately obvious doesn't mean they all have to be.  I mean by that logic Bernie Madoff was wrongly convicted.  He ran an entire office, and fake trading floor, printed out years worth of fake settlements, and fake trade reports, gave fake profits, and hired staff to process and manage all the fakeness.  Why make it so elaborate?

Because no one is going to trust 10 of millions of dollars to a "banker" working from his garage. This is different, there are plenty of "hobby FPGA solutions" already being sold here that may literally be assembled in a garage. All the fancy photoshoots I just dont think would be worth the cost.

How much does it cost to put a non-functional PCB under some heat sinks and slap it in a case. 

Actually, a fair amount. To do the PCBs, to make that custom housing, to pay a professional photographer, they website is reasonably well done, the offices apparently legit, whowever made the PCB design at least knows how to make one, its not an unskilled person. All of that is thousands of dollars. Yes, $50.000 is a lot more if they knew they would pull it off you could say its worth it, but without those costs their chances would have been only slightly smaller IMO. I were to scam, Id rather aim for $10.000 at basically no out of pocket cost than risk thousands of dollars to get a bit more, but also risk Goat proving me a scam .

Their website didn't even exist 3 months ago, it was a website for butterflies.

Yeah, so? Clearly they incorporated butterfly labs for this product/market. It would have been weirder if their website had been up 3 years ago .

Anyway, we'll find out soon enough, but Im pretty confident this is real. Anyone else taking 2-1 bets ?

[DeathAndTaxes]

Yeah, so? Clearly they incorporated butterfly labs for this product/market. It would have been weirder if their website had been up 3 years ago .

Well technically they didn't incorporate "Butterfly labs Inc.".  The "Butterfly Labs Inc" listed on the website simply doesn't exist. 

Someone incorporated "BF Labs Inc." in WY.

[RandyFolds]

All I can say is that if this is real, I would be sweating bullets if I was running a 36GH/s GPU farm right now. It'll change the game pretty quick.

Fancy photoshoots? Anyone with a DSLR could take any of the pictures on there. That housing probably isn't custom, and even if it was, you could have them cranked out cheap as all hell. It's aluminum, the absolute easiest metal to work. No one has seen the offices, and you can google how to design and build PCBs all day. I mean, they had three months from 'scam' inception to look at the other products on the market and make theirs look right. I am merely playing devil's advocate here and pointing out that none of that stuff cited by P4 is very meaningful. I think any of us could pull off something of similar quality and magnitude if we hadn't any scruples about it.

[btc_artist]

Cool butterflylabs.com (the domain) used to be a butterfly gardening forum. http://wayback.archive.org/web/*/http://butterflylabs.com/*

EDIT: Oops, didn't see this had already been posted.

EDIT2: Wanted to mention you can create a WY corporation online for a few hundred bucks. http://www.google.com/search?q=wyoming%20corporation%20online