1GH/s, 20w, $500 — Butterflylabs, is it a scam?

[P4man]

I understand why you wont double down on our bet.

Found it.
1PuepC3QTWsveqHx64FKUaQnp2jHQzmpHZ
(post 399)
So if I send 10 you will be sending 20 on the same conditions, right?

[DeathAndTaxes]

Agreed, not well listed for both parties..  Edit; though, atleast on new bets they get their bet weighted less and less as it approaches the end date..

Sadly the weighting isn't very "aggressive" so while early bets get more they don't get much more.  I wish someone would come up w/ an intrade type betting system where you purchase "shares" in the event and they trade because on market demand. 

Shares in it being legit would be worth 1 BTC if it turns out to be legit (spec & deadline requirement) and worth 0 BTC if it doesn't.

Each day the market would move up and down based on new facts.  So you can take longshots and still win by selling out even if the bet ultimately goes against you.

I wonder why bets of bitcoin didn't go w/ the already established format of a market.

[fred0]

Agreed, not well listed for both parties..  Edit; though, atleast on new bets they get their bet weighted less and less as it approaches the end date..

Sadly the weighting isn't very "aggressive" so while early bets get more they don't get much more.  I wish someone would come up w/ an intrade type betting system where you purchase "shares" in the event and they trade because on market demand.  

Shares in it being legit would be worth 1 BTC if it turns out to be legit (spec & deadline requirement) and worth 0 BTC if it doesn't.

Each day the market would move up and down based on new facts.  So you can take longshots and still win by selling out even if the bet ultimately goes against you.

I wonder why bets of bitcoin didn't go w/ the already established format of a market.

Bet payout composition:
Weighting 45%
Straight 45%
Statement writer 5%
Bets o Bitcoin 5%

If this software glitch is serious an announcement of a two week delay would also end the bet, since no customer will receive the widget in time to verify performance.

In any case, some of the fun leaves when after every announcement someone dumps a large sum on either side of the bet.

Aside from the weighting, the cutoff date so close to the end date really messes up the betting, it really should have been much earlier.

[Herodes]

Do you really think if this is a scam, that they would accept paypal? They would have to be insane. A scammer will accept bitcoin, Western Union, cash, even bank transfers - anything but Paypal. PP will freeze your account and even associated bank account for a million far less valid reasons. There is no way anyone with a brain is going to invest at least $10K on an incredibly elaborate hoax that will only make them a few times their investment when it all depends on being able to run away with Paypal funds.

Its just not plausible.

OTOH a software glitch causing a minor delay.. well, somehow doesnt strike me as particularly implausible.

I dont mind a healthy level of skepticism, but this thread really reminds of fake moonlanding discussions.

To my understanding, you don't have to keep much funds in a paypal account, and you can withdraw funds as soon as they come in ? I'd even think you could set up a 'fake' paypal account. I've heard people setting up paypal accounts in such a way that paypal can't touch associated bank accounts.

I have no first hand experience with this tough.

Being a coder, I know delays are something that happens a lot, and unforeseen problems may arise, however I would personally never promise a set date for any demo if I was not pretty certain I would make it, and if I did not make it, I sure as hell would do my absolute best to explain in person the details of the delays and communicate these swiftly to the interested parties, I wouldn't let this important info get out through some other party, days after my promised demo.

[Raoul Duke]

I love how people who clearly don't even use paypal pretend to understand so much about the way they work...

[P4man]

To my understanding, you don't have to keep much funds in a paypal account, and you can withdraw funds as soon as they come in ?

Yeah - unless Paypal suspects you are committing fraud (or violating customers privacy, or are involved in currency trading, or doesnt like the color of your website, or suspects you from having an extramarital affair, or its the 4th day of the week,..).

An acquaintance of mine had his paypal and associated bankaccount frozen the first month his business accepted paypal. He wanted to withdraw 2500 euro from it, enough for Paypal to find it "suspicious" even though his business is well established and does well over 1M per year. It took several weeks to get it cleared.

Im not saying it cant be done, I just dont think the effort BFL have clearly put in to this could be worth that risk. And I dont understand the assumption its a fraud when so far no one who knows what he is talking about seems to disagree that what they are promising is actually completely achievable. Seriously, if its not BFL, then someone else is going to make s-asics for this. The efficiency and cost gains are very substantial. The only thing weirder than BFL having done this is that no one else has done it yet.

[fizzisist]

Actually, accepting payment for pre-orders with Paypal is against their terms of use. Cablesaurus got a nasty email from them when he was accepting X6500 pre-orders. I'd be surprised if they haven't received this email already. And our customers were only paying $50 deposits, not $500 full payments!

To me, this is reason number #42 that Butterfly Labs doesn't smell quite right.

[xaxik]

Those packages look like 1mm grid thermally enhanced flipchip BGA ... guesstimating by the 0.1" headers ... 29x29mm FF780
so if these are SIII, pretty much "could be anything from a L50 to a E260"
One thing kinda throwing me off... if those are HCs, 1.1V core doesn't make sense. HCII is 1.2V and HCIII and IV are 0.9V.
As for "what SIII would you need for that"... depends on how much time you spend optimizing, first guess would be 2 unrolled engines with 1 pipeline stage per round, each running @ 250MHz... gut feeling says a L150.
So, random guesses:
a) these are HCIIIs, they prototyped with SIII and forgot to update the label for vcore.
or
b) only SIII based prototypes exist, once they get enough pre-orders HCIIIs get ordered (about 8wk if you rush assembly... possible.)
or
c) they somehow got a whole bunch of large SIIIs really cheap.
or
d) something entirely different.

I guess that these are engineering/preproduction samples of EP5AGXA3.
- they are 1V1
- I was able to succesfully sythesize 250MH/s with almost no effort (just combined two cores from here) into Stratix III/150 (which is 65nm). Never run it live though.
- Arria could be twice as fast for its 28nm -> 500 MH/s
- it is supplied in 27mm F672 package

@inaba: What size are the chips anyway? It can be measured really easily,
without pulling the heatsink off...

Just my 2c.

-x

[Matthew N. Wright]

To me, this is reason number #42 that Butterfly Labs doesn't smell quite right.

They smell like butterflies.

[DeathAndTaxes]

@inaba: What size are the chips anyway? It can be measured really easily,
without pulling the heatsink off...

I don't think inaba was allowed to keep the board although he could measure them (take a pocket ruler) next time he is given access.

[plastic.elastic]

@inaba: What size are the chips anyway? It can be measured really easily,
without pulling the heatsink off...

I don't think inaba was allowed to keep the board although he could measure them (take a pocket ruler) next time he is given access.

I like how BFL came in here when ppl were discussing paypal chargebacks, but didnt give us official info how WHAT exactly was the problem with the demonstration. They use Inaba as their official PR lol?

[Raoul Duke]

@inaba: What size are the chips anyway? It can be measured really easily,
without pulling the heatsink off...

I don't think inaba was allowed to keep the board although he could measure them (take a pocket ruler) next time he is given access.

I like how BFL came in here when ppl were discussing paypal chargebacks, but didnt give us official info how WHAT exactly was the problem with the demonstration. They use Inaba as their official PR lol?

The guy who was saying he would do a chargeback apparently only came to the forum talk about it and didn't even bother to contact them, so...
I would say they are smarter than all the guys around here dicing on them. They are just letting you digg the hole.
It's also incredible how everyone in this thread "know" BFLs' claims are false, yet they don't do anything of their life with all the knowledge they have. Talking in forums is easier than doing something for real, ain't it? And you don't miss deadlines by just talking intead of doing.

[bulanula]

@inaba: What size are the chips anyway? It can be measured really easily,
without pulling the heatsink off...

I don't think inaba was allowed to keep the board although he could measure them (take a pocket ruler) next time he is given access.

I like how BFL came in here when ppl were discussing paypal chargebacks, but didnt give us official info how WHAT exactly was the problem with the demonstration. They use Inaba as their official PR lol?

Exactly. This smells of scam a mile away. Will be laughing all day at the fools getting their money stolen because they did not listen. Happy scamming !

[wormbog]

@inaba: What size are the chips anyway? It can be measured really easily,
without pulling the heatsink off...

I don't think inaba was allowed to keep the board although he could measure them (take a pocket ruler) next time he is given access.

I like how BFL came in here when ppl were discussing paypal chargebacks, but didnt give us official info how WHAT exactly was the problem with the demonstration. They use Inaba as their official PR lol?

The guy who was saying he would do a chargeback apparently only came to the forum talk about it and didn't even bother to contact them, so...
I would say they are smarter than all the guys around here dicing on them. They are just letting you digg the hole.
It's also incredible how everyone in this thread "know" BFLs' claims are false, yet they don't do anything of their life with all the knowledge they have. Talking in forums is easier than doing something for real, ain't it? And you don't miss deadlines by just talking intead of doing.

Helping to identify scammers preying on the community is doing something. Knowledge is power. But ultimately it's up to those who have placed pre-orders to decide whether or not to take action.

[fizzisist]

The guy who was saying he would do a chargeback apparently only came to the forum talk about it and didn't even bother to contact them, so...
I would say they are smarter than all the guys around here dicing on them. They are just letting you digg the hole.
It's also incredible how everyone in this thread "know" BFLs' claims are false, yet they don't do anything of their life with all the knowledge they have. Talking in forums is easier than doing something for real, ain't it? And you don't miss deadlines by just talking intead of doing.

What would you consider "doing something?" Our group has invested a lot of money in FPGAs, which would be tough to sell if BFL turns out to be real (3-4x greater performance per $ and per W). rph has done the same.

I'm certainly not claiming that I know BFL is a scam, but I do find it very suspicious. To summarize, here are the things that strike me as at least a little bit odd about them:

1. Incredible performance claims and insanely low price. They could have easily priced it twice as high and it would still be a great deal.

2. Doing business as Butterfly Labs, yet supposedly incorporated as BF Labs.

3. Came out of nowhere with a professional looking site and all sorts of implications that they have been doing business for some time in the cryptography field, although they have no other products. Actually, this is even more than an implication: "Butterfly Labs has more than a decade of experience in FPGA & ASIC stand alone system design."

4. In the same vein as 3: Gift store? Job postings? Consulting?

5. List drivers available for "medical imaging" and "computational research," yet they state it can only do 2-stage SHA256 hashing. What kind of medical imaging can you do with SHA256? By the way, in my real job I actually use FPGAs and GPUs for medical imaging processing.

6. The mysterious "Rig Box" that somehow gets a 50% higher performance by clustering 32 of these boards together.

7. Accepting Paypal for pre-orders.

8. Very little communication with the public about how it works, who they are, and how they can do this for so cheap.

All of that still doesn't mean it's impossible, but it definitely smells fishy.

[Transisto]

I come here every once in a while to see if there's an update.

Now getting really tired of people commenting "obvious scam is obviously a scam"

BF claims were flagged with doubts FROM DAY ONE !

Maybe reread the whole 60 page thread to see if the reason why you think this is a scam hasn't been posted already.

Thank You.

[plastic.elastic]

The guy who was saying he would do a chargeback apparently only came to the forum talk about it and didn't even bother to contact them, so...
I would say they are smarter than all the guys around here dicing on them. They are just letting you digg the hole.
It's also incredible how everyone in this thread "know" BFLs' claims are false, yet they don't do anything of their life with all the knowledge they have. Talking in forums is easier than doing something for real, ain't it? And you don't miss deadlines by just talking intead of doing.

What would you consider "doing something?" Our group has invested a lot of money in FPGAs, which would be tough to sell if BFL turns out to be real (3-4x greater performance per $ and per W). rph has done the same.

I'm certainly not claiming that I know BFL is a scam, but I do find it very suspicious. To summarize, here are the things that strike me as at least a little bit odd about them:

1. Incredible performance claims and insanely low price. They could have easily priced it twice as high and it would still be a great deal.

2. Doing business as Butterfly Labs, yet supposedly incorporated as BF Labs.

3. Came out of nowhere with a professional looking site and all sorts of implications that they have been doing business for some time in the cryptography field, although they have no other products. Actually, this is even more than an implication: "Butterfly Labs has more than a decade of experience in FPGA & ASIC stand alone system design."

4. In the same vein as 3: Gift store? Job postings? Consulting?

5. List drivers available for "medical imaging" and "computational research," yet they state it can only do 2-stage SHA256 hashing. What kind of medical imaging can you do with SHA256? By the way, in my real job I actually use FPGAs and GPUs for medical imaging processing.

6. The mysterious "Rig Box" that somehow gets a 50% higher performance by clustering 32 of these boards together.

7. Accepting Paypal for pre-orders.

8. Very little communication with the public about how it works, who they are, and how they can do this for so cheap.

All of that still doesn't mean it's impossible, but it definitely smells fishy.

I have exactly the same thought.

[Raoul Duke]

The guy who was saying he would do a chargeback apparently only came to the forum talk about it and didn't even bother to contact them, so...
I would say they are smarter than all the guys around here dicing on them. They are just letting you digg the hole.
It's also incredible how everyone in this thread "know" BFLs' claims are false, yet they don't do anything of their life with all the knowledge they have. Talking in forums is easier than doing something for real, ain't it? And you don't miss deadlines by just talking intead of doing.

What would you consider "doing something?" Our group has invested a lot of money in FPGAs, which would be tough to sell if BFL turns out to be real (3-4x greater performance per $ and per W). rph has done the same.

I'm certainly not claiming that I know BFL is a scam, but I do find it very suspicious. To summarize, here are the things that strike me as at least a little bit odd about them:

1. Incredible performance claims and insanely low price. They could have easily priced it twice as high and it would still be a great deal.

2. Doing business as Butterfly Labs, yet supposedly incorporated as BF Labs.

3. Came out of nowhere with a professional looking site and all sorts of implications that they have been doing business for some time in the cryptography field, although they have no other products. Actually, this is even more than an implication: "Butterfly Labs has more than a decade of experience in FPGA & ASIC stand alone system design."

4. In the same vein as 3: Gift store? Job postings? Consulting?

5. List drivers available for "medical imaging" and "computational research," yet they state it can only do 2-stage SHA256 hashing. What kind of medical imaging can you do with SHA256? By the way, in my real job I actually use FPGAs and GPUs for medical imaging processing.

6. The mysterious "Rig Box" that somehow gets a 50% higher performance by clustering 32 of these boards together.

7. Accepting Paypal for pre-orders.

8. Very little communication with the public about how it works, who they are, and how they can do this for so cheap.

All of that still doesn't mean it's impossible, but it definitely smells fishy.

Not going to address your points just because you were not the one that spent the last 30 pages pretending to be the expert(you really are, and you DO something), yet you are probably one of the persons that most have to lose if it turns out to not be a scam... But if the hat fits in your head that's your problem, not mine.

tl:dr You are probably one of the few on this thread that has the right to talk.

[plastic.elastic]

The guy who was saying he would do a chargeback apparently only came to the forum talk about it and didn't even bother to contact them, so...
I would say they are smarter than all the guys around here dicing on them. They are just letting you digg the hole.
It's also incredible how everyone in this thread "know" BFLs' claims are false, yet they don't do anything of their life with all the knowledge they have. Talking in forums is easier than doing something for real, ain't it? And you don't miss deadlines by just talking intead of doing.

What would you consider "doing something?" Our group has invested a lot of money in FPGAs, which would be tough to sell if BFL turns out to be real (3-4x greater performance per $ and per W). rph has done the same.

I'm certainly not claiming that I know BFL is a scam, but I do find it very suspicious. To summarize, here are the things that strike me as at least a little bit odd about them:

1. Incredible performance claims and insanely low price. They could have easily priced it twice as high and it would still be a great deal.

2. Doing business as Butterfly Labs, yet supposedly incorporated as BF Labs.

3. Came out of nowhere with a professional looking site and all sorts of implications that they have been doing business for some time in the cryptography field, although they have no other products. Actually, this is even more than an implication: "Butterfly Labs has more than a decade of experience in FPGA & ASIC stand alone system design."

4. In the same vein as 3: Gift store? Job postings? Consulting?

5. List drivers available for "medical imaging" and "computational research," yet they state it can only do 2-stage SHA256 hashing. What kind of medical imaging can you do with SHA256? By the way, in my real job I actually use FPGAs and GPUs for medical imaging processing.

6. The mysterious "Rig Box" that somehow gets a 50% higher performance by clustering 32 of these boards together.

7. Accepting Paypal for pre-orders.

8. Very little communication with the public about how it works, who they are, and how they can do this for so cheap.

All of that still doesn't mean it's impossible, but it definitely smells fishy.

Not going to address your points just because you were not the one that spent the last 30 pages pretending to be the expert(you really are, and you DO something), yet you are probably one of the persons that most have to lose if it turns out to not be a scam... But if the hat fits in your head that's your problem, not mine.

tl:dr You are probably one of the few on this thread that has the right to talk.

What makes you do?

Did you ask mommy to use the INTERNET?

[Raoul Duke]

Did you ask mommy to use the INTERNET?«

No, I asked your mom. And she let me before i gave her an orgasm overdose.