[BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon

[eddie13]

I'm not a hodler -- I actually ....   so I can't do BTC.

Well what is one signature payment in BTC? I can wait a week after the close..
But what if it goes to $300k+? You would have to hodl it now.. ...
I could hodl some satoshis for you if you want..

OK, you have my word that I would honor this type of deal:

(I'm loaning you .01 so you can pay me .02)

With the same conditions as suchmoon. If Trump wins and I don't honor my repayment of 0.02 BTC everybody has permission to run my ass red. But I will repay because that's what I do.

Hell, let's up the stakes for me: I will pay you 0.025 if Trump wins the election (on suchmoon-based terms), seeing as how you are basically giving me a loan of 0.01 BTC.

Address:
19fZGJAsampH3UEMp5WroX3Y6eUU1tdA7B
Message:
This is nutildah, signing an old-ass Counterparty address on 12/17 (12/16 for most of you still).
Signature:
H3B8p56eKe2cysSKIb+Kr016oKRIXhF03F1K2eUORe83ZzjR+96CnKXF5RXaKbZf0tpC+cqfr0hmDvtNQBxW6lQ=

First transaction is from 9.29.14

Let me know what you think. I can sign a more specific message if you agree.

1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

Code:

eddie13 on 12/16/19 accepting bet with nutildah as quoted

Quote:
With the same conditions as suchmoon. If Trump wins and I don't honor my repayment of 0.02 BTC everybody has permission to run my ass red. But I will repay because that's what I do. 

Hell, let's up the stakes for me: I will pay you [b]0.025[/b] if Trump wins the election (on suchmoon-based terms), seeing as how you are basically giving me a loan of 0.01 BTC. 

Address:
19fZGJAsampH3UEMp5WroX3Y6eUU1tdA7B
Message:
This is nutildah, signing an old-ass Counterparty address on 12/17 (12/16 for most of you still).
Signature:
H3B8p56eKe2cysSKIb+Kr016oKRIXhF03F1K2eUORe83ZzjR+96CnKXF5RXaKbZf0tpC+cqfr0hmDvtNQBxW6lQ=

Original referenced terms:
suchmoon agrees to pay 0.1 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.1 BTC to suchmoon if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.

Decision logic:

Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case suchmoon wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

    If there is no presidential election in 2020.
    If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
    If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.

Additional terms:

    EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
    No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
    Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
    Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means suchmoon wins.
    If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.

II6Xx3PW4Gd9BirwHNamhwQ7URuvKX7t4+fpDr214AhhWCZJV2hj5rKJsi8cX+9joA0cvUbJ1If26ntGNWE0+l8=



Accepted anyway but I can't find 19fZGJAsampH3UEMp5WroX3Y6eUU1tdA7B staked anywhere either..
Tisk tisk..
My mistake for not checking it first, my risk..

[suchmoon]

Accepted anyway but I can't find 19fZGJAsampH3UEMp5WroX3Y6eUU1tdA7B staked anywhere either..
Tisk tisk..
My mistake for not checking it first, my risk..

If nutildah defaults I'll pay his part too, after coloring him red up the wazoo of course.

Just to make it clear, if you win you get 0.025 BTC and if he wins he gets 0.01 BTC? So that's like +250 or am I missing something here?

[eddie13]

Accepted anyway but I can't find 19fZGJAsampH3UEMp5WroX3Y6eUU1tdA7B staked anywhere either..
Tisk tisk..
My mistake for not checking it first, my risk..

If nutildah defaults I'll pay his part too, after coloring him red up the wazoo of course.

Just to make it clear, if you win you get 0.025 BTC and if he wins he gets 0.01 BTC? So that's like +250 or am I missing something here?

You don't need to pay anything that has to do with that, lol..
I took it to mean more like +150 but I will only ask for +100 or .01 no matter.. I'm not trying to rob anyone..

I'll give you a redo on that if you want @nutildah to make it clear 1:1..

What I said about the whole loan thing was just kidding Twitchy trying to get him to sign a real staked address..
I'm starting to think that the concept of signing agreements is not as well spread as I had thought, or something..

[TECSHARE]

You don't need to pay anything that has to do with that, lol..
I took it to mean more like +150 but I will only ask for +100 or .01 no matter.. I'm not trying to rob anyone..

I'll give you a redo on that if you want @nutildah to make it clear 1:1..

What I said about the whole loan thing was just kidding Twitchy trying to get him to sign a real staked address..
I'm starting to think that the concept of signing agreements is not as well spread as I had thought, or something..

Neither of these fuckers give an inch of slack, they deserve none. Take every Satoshi they promise and laugh heartily at them.

[eddie13]

Neither of these fuckers give an inch of slack, they deserve none. Take every Satoshi they promise and laugh heartily at them.

But didn't you read my profile? I'm a "friendly neighbourhood guy"..

[suchmoon]

Neither of these fuckers give an inch of slack, they deserve none. Take every Satoshi they promise and laugh heartily at them.

Classy as ever. Reminder:

Local rules: this particular bet, as well as betting on 2020 presidential election in general, and discussing the election itself is on topic. Everything else, including the usual P&S bullshit (you know who you are) is not.

[nutildah]

I'll give you a redo on that if you want @nutildah to make it clear 1:1..

What I said about the whole loan thing was just kidding Twitchy trying to get him to sign a real staked address..
I'm starting to think that the concept of signing agreements is not as well spread as I had thought, or something..

Oh, well in that case let's just do 0.01 @ 1:1. I can definitely round that up in a year, regardless of what the price is.

[TwitchySeal]

I owe eddie a signed message confirming BTC.01 on Trump not getting reelected with same terms as suchmoons bet.

Just saying.

[TECSHARE]

Neither of these fuckers give an inch of slack, they deserve none. Take every Satoshi they promise and laugh heartily at them.

Classy as ever. Reminder:

Local rules: this particular bet, as well as betting on 2020 presidential election in general, and discussing the election itself is on topic. Everything else, including the usual P&S bullshit (you know who you are) is not.

I am addressing the bet, which is very much on topic. As far as the rest, cry me a river.

[TwitchySeal]

I owe eddie a signed message confirming BTC.01 on Trump not getting reelected with same terms as suchmoons bet.

Just saying.

Ok don't want this on my todo list any longer.  I just stole all the terms from suchmoon/eddie bet in OP and changed the amount.  I'm fine with forgetting the arbitrator clause as long as this bet is settled the same as your bet with suchmoon.

Let me know if everything looks good and I'll sign it with 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn

I could've sworn I had it in the staked address thread, but can only find this post at the moment:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1243970.msg12951413#msg12951413

Code:

TwitchySeals's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

TwitchySeal agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to TwitchySeal if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.

The outcome of this bet will be the same as the outcome of the [url=https://archive.is/wip/pTbBg]bet between suchmoon and eddie13[/url].

Decision logic is 

Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case TwitchySeal wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

    If there is no presidential election in 2020.
    If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
    If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.

Additional terms:

    EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
    No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
    Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
    Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means Twitchyseal wins.
    If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.

Signed 2020-01-04

[JollyGood]

Trump winning re-election will be based as much upon his eventual Democratic opponent as it would on anything else.

The fact of the matter is with Trump winning the election in 2016 (even though he lost the popular vote), many never saw that coming so there is no reason why he might not repeat the feat BUT there is much more consensus of a movement against Trump and his policies now than ever before along with the #metoo movement. Let us not forget there are several women who have made various claims against the sitting President of the USA.

Democrats have an opportunity to easily win the election if they can capitalise on the failures of Trump (PR disasters, allegations of sexual misconduct, collusion with foreign entities for personal/political gain, threatening foreign countries for personal/politcal gain, etc) and if they can present even a semi-charismatic individual as their nomination for the Presidential candidacy.

Trump will always have the majority of the evangelical right and various organisation that are to the right of the political spectrum but will it be enough to get him over the line this time - it will be tight.

[ubercool]

Trump may win this election as there is no strong opponent from Democrats. They are still fighting in themselves and putting a stone on each others head. The odds are towards Trump, also don't forget about the war situation.

[eddie13]

I owe eddie a signed message confirming BTC.01 on Trump not getting reelected with same terms as suchmoons bet.

Just saying.

Ok don't want this on my todo list any longer.  I just stole all the terms from suchmoon/eddie bet in OP and changed the amount.  I'm fine with forgetting the arbitrator clause as long as this bet is settled the same as your bet with suchmoon.

Let me know if everything looks good and I'll sign it with 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn

I could've sworn I had it in the staked address thread, but can only find this post at the moment:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1243970.msg12951413#msg12951413

Code:

TwitchySeals's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

TwitchySeal agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to TwitchySeal if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.

The outcome of this bet will be the same as the outcome of the [url=https://archive.is/wip/pTbBg]bet between suchmoon and eddie13[/url].

Decision logic is 

Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case TwitchySeal wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

    If there is no presidential election in 2020.
    If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
    If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.

Additional terms:

    EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
    No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
    Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
    Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means Twitchyseal wins.
    If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.

Signed 2020-01-04

Code:

eddie13 accepting the following on 1/5/2020

TwitchySeals's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

TwitchySeal agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to TwitchySeal if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.

The outcome of this bet will be the same as the outcome of the [url=https://archive.is/wip/pTbBg]bet between suchmoon and eddie13[/url].

Decision logic is

Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case TwitchySeal wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

    If there is no presidential election in 2020.
    If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
    If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.

Additional terms:

    EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
    No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
    Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
    Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means Twitchyseal wins.
    If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.

H2aX6ACUY9ZekeQ8VeO+QoiIJZE+oskWNVhH38P/AjZ3TzW3sJlh3lBPa/nVgxbOVt3EY0vFwdwHzEqkwtiYUf4=

[coolcoinz]

It's interesting to watch as the odds of official Trump winning are quite high. Eddie13 is actually at an advantage, if I'm not wrong and could make money playing it right.
So, for every 1 BTC he's betting he's going to receive 1 BTC (if Trump wins).
It could be smart for him to bet 1:1 with you and also against himself at the same time with the current 1/6 odds, getting 6 BTC for every 1 BTC wagered (if Trump loses).
 
Say, he bets 1BTC against all of the forum members together. If he wins, he's going to have 2 BTC next year.
If he also bets 0.5 BTC against himself today and wins, he'll get 1BTC from you, but also loses 0.5 BTC, so he'll have a profit of 0.5.
If Trump loses, he'll get 3 BTC from the bookies, but will have to pay you 1, so that will leave him with 2 BTC of pure profit. Looks like a win- win situation to me.

[eddie13]

It's interesting to watch as the odds of official Trump winning are quite high. Eddie13 is actually at an advantage, if I'm not wrong and could make money playing it right.
So, for every 1 BTC he's betting he's going to receive 1 BTC (if Trump wins).
It could be smart for him to bet 1:1 with you and also against himself at the same time with the current 1/6 odds, getting 6 BTC for every 1 BTC wagered (if Trump loses).
 
Say, he bets 1BTC against all of the forum members together. If he wins, he's going to have 2 BTC next year.
If he also bets 0.5 BTC against himself today and wins, he'll get 1BTC from you, but also loses 0.5 BTC, so he'll have a profit of 0.5.
If Trump loses, he'll get 3 BTC from the bookies, but will have to pay you 1, so that will leave him with 2 BTC of pure profit. Looks like a win- win situation to me.

Bookie suggestions?

[coolcoinz]

Bookie suggestions?

Check out:
https://www.bet365.com
https://betway.com

Unfortunately I can't check the odds in real time because of country restrictions at these sites, so I relied on third party services. If you can find what the odds are today please post it here because the most recent ones that I could find were from a week ago, or I'll switch to a VPN later and do it myself.

[TwitchySeal]

It's interesting to watch as the odds of official Trump winning are quite high. Eddie13 is actually at an advantage, if I'm not wrong and could make money playing it right.
So, for every 1 BTC he's betting he's going to receive 1 BTC (if Trump wins).
It could be smart for him to bet 1:1 with you and also against himself at the same time with the current 1/6 odds, getting 6 BTC for every 1 BTC wagered (if Trump loses).

The 1/6 odds are that he completes first term (doesn't get convicted by senate, resign or die).  

At the time of the article paddy was offering 10/11, -110 american (so they basically considered it a dead heat and take some juice)

No vpn needed to check predictit and you can check history of prices easily.  It's a market though, not traditional bookie.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election

[TwitchySeal]

I owe eddie a signed message confirming BTC.01 on Trump not getting reelected with same terms as suchmoons bet.

Just saying.

Ok don't want this on my todo list any longer.  I just stole all the terms from suchmoon/eddie bet in OP and changed the amount.  I'm fine with forgetting the arbitrator clause as long as this bet is settled the same as your bet with suchmoon.

Let me know if everything looks good and I'll sign it with 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn

I could've sworn I had it in the staked address thread, but can only find this post at the moment:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1243970.msg12951413#msg12951413

Code:

TwitchySeals's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

TwitchySeal agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to TwitchySeal if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.

The outcome of this bet will be the same as the outcome of the [url=https://archive.is/wip/pTbBg]bet between suchmoon and eddie13[/url].

Decision logic is 

Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case TwitchySeal wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

    If there is no presidential election in 2020.
    If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
    If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.

Additional terms:

    EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
    No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
    Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
    Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means Twitchyseal wins.
    If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.

Signed 2020-01-04

Code:

eddie13 accepting the following on 1/5/2020

TwitchySeals's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

TwitchySeal agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to TwitchySeal if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.

The outcome of this bet will be the same as the outcome of the [url=https://archive.is/wip/pTbBg]bet between suchmoon and eddie13[/url].

Decision logic is

Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case TwitchySeal wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

    If there is no presidential election in 2020.
    If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
    If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.

Additional terms:

    EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
    No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
    Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
    Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means Twitchyseal wins.
    If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.

H2aX6ACUY9ZekeQ8VeO+QoiIJZE+oskWNVhH38P/AjZ3TzW3sJlh3lBPa/nVgxbOVt3EY0vFwdwHzEqkwtiYUf4=

Code:

Twitchyseal accepting the following on 1/5/2020

TwitchySeals's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

TwitchySeal agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.01 BTC to TwitchySeal if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.

The outcome of this bet will be the same as the outcome of the [url=https://archive.is/wip/pTbBg]bet between suchmoon and eddie13[/url].

Decision logic is

Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case TwitchySeal wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

    If there is no presidential election in 2020.
    If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
    If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.

Additional terms:

    EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
    No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
    Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
    Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means Twitchyseal wins.
    If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.

IHRUYsmFQVZMxEbSzfhcmTNf2qQnfJwH7I91Lzt0OM78EOOc7FgPNsTB/fGipfSF9ZAVuvlmhFbAFXmmOxkBkZc=

[eddie13]

Verified..
It's on!

[eddie13]

Imagine thinking Biden could win..