[BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon

[eddie13]

Agree?

Still agreed..

I figure I have a ~2% chance of "kicking the bucket within a year" now.

Look at you all optimistic n shit...

I think this is already the case per the terms of the contract as posted in the OP.

Right... That's why I quoted it out of the contract in the OP..

[TwitchySeal]

First time Trump hasn't been a favorite on predictit:



https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election

Even before all the money against Trump was consolidated into one candidate Trump was selling for more than 50 cents.

Predictit is swinging a lot.



Found a pretty good site for electoral math: https://www.270towin.com/

Here's what Consensus 2020 has right now:


Been looking through various state by state polls and I think it's very likely Florida, NC go to Trump.  He's also a small favorite in AZ.
PA and MI seem very likely to go Blue.  I'm surprised PA is a toss up.

Here's my current prediction:


Whoever wins WI will win the election.

[PrimeNumber7]

Predictit is swinging a lot.

This is probably because the betting markets show that both Clinton and Cuomo have high single-digit chances of winning the nomination despite not even being in the race.

There has also been some talk of Cuomo getting the nomination in a brokered convention scenario.

As it stands now, Biden has almost zero relevance and people are not paying serious attention to anything he is saying.

[squatz1]

Predictit is swinging a lot.

This is probably because the betting markets show that both Clinton and Cuomo have high single-digit chances of winning the nomination despite not even being in the race.

There has also been some talk of Cuomo getting the nomination in a brokered convention scenario.

As it stands now, Biden has almost zero relevance and people are not paying serious attention to anything he is saying.

I guess I kinda understand the Cuomo one, but only a bit. He's a great public speaker and is a well known politican, but only in NY -- can't really see him being able to turn that into a dark horse candidate stealing it at the convention. Guy has done a great job with the coronavirus, but I don't think that's enough right now.

 I know the guy wants to run for President, but this isn't the way to do it. He'd literally need Biden to drop dead, or for the inner DNC people to freak and force him out. Imagine how that would look? Bernie would say that he's the next in line!

[PrimeNumber7]

Predictit is swinging a lot.

This is probably because the betting markets show that both Clinton and Cuomo have high single-digit chances of winning the nomination despite not even being in the race.

There has also been some talk of Cuomo getting the nomination in a brokered convention scenario.

As it stands now, Biden has almost zero relevance and people are not paying serious attention to anything he is saying.

I guess I kinda understand the Cuomo one, but only a bit. He's a great public speaker and is a well known politican, but only in NY -- can't really see him being able to turn that into a dark horse candidate stealing it at the convention. Guy has done a great job with the coronavirus, but I don't think that's enough right now.

 I know the guy wants to run for President, but this isn't the way to do it. He'd literally need Biden to drop dead, or for the inner DNC people to freak and force him out. Imagine how that would look? Bernie would say that he's the next in line!

Cuomo is getting national attention because of the coronavirus right now. This may be fueling the speculation of his getting the nomination. He is a much better candidate than Biden. It is possible that once New York largely gets past their Coronavirus problems, and other states start having large scale coronavirus problems, he will fall out of the limelight and other governors will get a similar spotlight.

To my knowledge Cuomo is not even talking about running for President, it is pundits talking about him possibly getting the nomination. As it stands now, I don't see anyone except Biden getting the nomination absent a brokered convention. I think any governor that would try to launch a campaign before the Democratic convention would face strong backlash. Cuomo may face backlash if he were to even accept the nomination, especially if there are additional flareups after starting his campaign. He could be accused of ignoring the problem to try to run for president.

[suchmoon]

If both eddie13 and I are still around in 2024 we could probably make a bet on Cuomo vs whoever is left of the Republican party.

As for now, let's just have some respect for the poor folks in New York and leave this out of this thread. There are other threads for that topic, TBH it seems almost every other thread is about corona.

[squatz1]

If both eddie13 and I are still around in 2024 we could probably make a bet on Cuomo vs whoever is left of the Republican party.

As for now, let's just have some respect for the poor folks in New York and leave this out of this thread. There are other threads for that topic, TBH it seems almost every other thread is about corona.

Eh I mean at the end of the day it does make sense, the only thing that people are talking about in general right now is the Coronavirus.

Wanna watch the news? Coronavirus

Wanna go to Facebook,Instagram,Twitter? Coronavirus

Wanna go to reddit to escape the TRADITIONAL social media? Coronavirus

Literally you can't even escape this with the internet.

Only actual place that doesn't talk about it AS MUCH is Youtube, because people are getting demonetized for showcasing it as advertisers don't want to pay for it.

[suchmoon]

Eh I mean at the end of the day it does make sense, the only thing that people are talking about in general right now is the Coronavirus.

Pardon my irritation but some of us have to work 2x hours because of it - or rather because some people treat the "stay at home" order as a free vacation but I digress - so I'm sick of it (not sick with it... yet).

[squatz1]

Eh I mean at the end of the day it does make sense, the only thing that people are talking about in general right now is the Coronavirus.

Pardon my irritation but some of us have to work 2x hours because of it - or rather because some people treat the "stay at home" order as a free vacation but I digress - so I'm sick of it (not sick with it... yet).

Oh not saying you're wrong to be angry because of it, just saying that it does make sense that the only thing that people talk about in person, online, on the news, and so on is something that comes onto here to be talked about as well.

Ya know I saw a Facebook post from someone that really pissed me off. It was a local pizzeria that was boasting about how good they were doing in this time. He was literally saying that he had to tap out today during work because they were doing so well and selling so many pizzas. I wouldn't want to see a post like this during a normal time, let alone when people are losing their jobs, widespread financial panic, etc.

Sick of it too. Just the only thing that people want to talk about though.

[Meowth05]

You should post the winner in another thread. I am not a fan of Trump exactly but I am hoping for a better leadership in USA and I am excited for the result. Good luck betting guys.

[sirazimuth]

Is it just me or does it look like suchmoon's odds are getting better?

One can only hope....

[suchmoon]

Is it just me or does it look like suchmoon's odds are getting better?

One can only hope....

It's amazing how Trump thought that making everything about himself was an appropriate response in a national crisis. Now he seems to have cancelled the daily briefings and gone back to Twitter. That won't help him outside of his base.

[TwitchySeal]

Is it just me or does it look like suchmoon's odds are getting better?

One can only hope....

It's amazing how Trump thought that making everything about himself was an appropriate response in a national crisis. Now he seems to have cancelled the daily briefings and gone back to Twitter. That won't help him outside of his base.

What an epic twitter meltdown today.
He even misspelled 'Hamberger' again.  TBF that is how it sounds.

On friday they tried to make a CNN reporter move to the back row of the briefing, and threatened to get secret service involved but something something free press means he doesn't get to assign seats or pick who gets a press pass.  Then they convinced him he might be hurting himself by acting like an idiot all the time and maybe he shouldn't spend so much time on live TV - his favorite thing in life -  (sir, the press is out to get you, if all they are going to do is lie about the amazing job you're doing...why not just stop talking to them so much?) I feel like he probably thought more about how much he hates the press than anything else this weekend.  Good thing nothing major was happening.

[squatz1]

Is it just me or does it look like suchmoon's odds are getting better?

One can only hope....

It's amazing how Trump thought that making everything about himself was an appropriate response in a national crisis. Now he seems to have cancelled the daily briefings and gone back to Twitter. That won't help him outside of his base.

Getting better? Yes.

But do we all really think that Joe Bidens senile ass is going to be able to unite Democrats around him and beat Trump? Even if Trump is making things all about himself today, Biden can't even string together a coherent sentence and it's impossible to understand what he's trying to get to. Sometimes he can pull it together, but most times not so much.

I think that Trump has to do a much better job in regards to Corona, but I still don't think that Biden stands a chance here.

[suchmoon]

I think that Trump has to do a much better job in regards to Corona, but I still don't think that Biden stands a chance here.

I can't comment on that specifically since I have a great personal dislike for Biden but looking back at the other candidates I don't really see anyone else who could have done much better against Trump (and no, Bernie isn't it either, nor is Cuomo or whoever). The biggest challenge for Democrats is that Trump can make anything up and his 42% base seems invincible so he can just keep throwing shit at the wall and wear his opponent out.

[squatz1]

I think that Trump has to do a much better job in regards to Corona, but I still don't think that Biden stands a chance here.

I can't comment on that specifically since I have a great personal dislike for Biden but looking back at the other candidates I don't really see anyone else who could have done much better against Trump (and no, Bernie isn't it either, nor is Cuomo or whoever). The biggest challenge for Democrats is that Trump can make anything up and his 42% base seems invincible so he can just keep throwing shit at the wall and wear his opponent out.

Eh, maybe. But I don't know how much we can trust the early national polling regarding democratic candidates. It's not really something that makes a lot of sense.

Biden had one of the worst enthusiasms for a candidate in polling, among many of the others. I guess with my line of thinking we could also write this off -- I just don't see people in my life that are big Biden guys. He doesn't have much of a following and has been highly absent in the media recently. It's all eyes on Trump now, for better or for worse.

[JollyGood]

Maybe the November 2020 election will not take place if numbers of coronavirus victims increases - imagine all the legal and moral the ramifications of that scenario !

 

[eddie13]

PA and MI seem very likely to go Blue.  

You hear about the protests at the MI capital in Lansing? All those people pissed and even protesting right in the capital building against the D governor while open carrying "assault" rifles? (Beautiful!)
Michigan social media is just packed with posts hating on Gretchen Whitmer (D gov) over the lockdown..
DJT's signature is on all the letters for the $1,200 stimulus payments..
No bullshit marijuana legalization crap on the ballot this time (that I know of) to drag out all the stoners to vote for it and all the free shit they can while they are at it..

I'm thinking Ds are going to have a hard time in the next election in Michigan especially..

People are pissed about the lockdown.. Even D voters (bernie bros) I know are pissed at the D gov over it..

Even I'm pissed because I can't get the stupid fucking government to transfer my license plates from my winter car (down for maintenance) to my summer car..
Secretary of State offices are closed until the 27th..
No option to transfer plates online..
No option to make an SOS appointment, even on/after the 27th, to transfer plates..
Not taking phone calls or anything..

So screw them, I'm driving with the wrong plates on my car, and will tell them they can eat a bag of dicks over it if they want to give me a hard time about it.. If they pull me over I'm gonna cough as much as I can..

[suchmoon]

So screw them, I'm driving with the wrong plates on my car, and will tell them they can eat a bag of dicks over it if they want to give me a hard time about it.. If they pull me over I'm gonna cough as much as I can..

You're taking this too personally LOL. I'm driving with expired temp tags, not too worried. By definition 8-16% of drivers will have some sort of registration issue after 1-2 months if shutdown so there is probably going to be some leniency otherwise local courts will get DDOSed with contested tickets.

P.S. Trump will lose.

[PrimeNumber7]

There are protests in PA as well.

Trump tweeted this morning that the MI governor should try to strike a deal with the protestors and to meet with them. The last part is important because it implies she hasn’t met with the protestors. My guess is she won’t meet with them in the immediate future and may not at all until it becomes a moot point when the courts overturn her stay at home order. This means she is refusing to even listen to concerns from her constituents. I can see a lot of people relating to the protestors and to Republicans and voting as such in November (assuming she doesn’t cancel the election as New York did in the primaries).

I am also surprised there aren’t any better pictures of her. Every picture any news outlet shows of her makes her look just evil. If Obama has a white daughter....