[BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon

[suchmoon]

Can we please try to stay on topic without moderator's involvement. There are many other threads to discuss the grave oppression of masks and six feet of air.

This thread is for ridiculing Biden, Trump, and idiots betting on them.

Local rules: this particular bet, as well as betting on 2020 presidential election in general, and discussing the election itself is on topic. Everything else, including the usual P&S bullshit (you know who you are) is not.

Edited four spellign.

[TwitchySeal]

Can we please try to stay on topic without moderator's involvement. There are many other threads to discuss the grave oppression of masks and six feet of air.

This thread is for ridiculing Biden, Trump, and idiots betting on them.

Local rules: this particular bet, as well as betting on 2020 presidential election in general, and discussing the election itself is on topic. Everything else, including the usual P&S bullshit (you know who you are) is not.

Sorry, that was my fault.

Check out front page of predictit:


https://www.predictit.org/

Notice anything off?

[suchmoon]

Notice anything off?

Trump looks happier than Biden? There is still some red left on the map? Alaska and Hawaii have been sold to Mexico?

I give up. What is it?

[TwitchySeal]

Notice anything off?

Trump looks happier than Biden? There is still some red left on the map? Alaska and Hawaii have been sold to Mexico?

I give up. What is it?

The market for next president has Trump favored 50 - 47.

But you can also bet on who will win each state, those 50 markets have Biden winning 290-248 electoral votes.



290 -248 is pretty strong.  In that scenario Biden could afford to lose WI or MI and still win.  If he were to lose WI and AZ, it would be 269 - 269...not sure how that would play out.

[squatz1]

Can we please try to stay on topic without moderator's involvement. There are many other threads to discuss the grave oppression of masks and six feet of air.

This thread is for ridiculing Biden, Trump, and idiots betting on them.

Local rules: this particular bet, as well as betting on 2020 presidential election in general, and discussing the election itself is on topic. Everything else, including the usual P&S bullshit (you know who you are) is not.

Edited four spellign.

I'm totally one of the people that have broke this as well, so for that I'll be apologizing. Kinda was just responding.. lol.

Can we please try to stay on topic without moderator's involvement. There are many other threads to discuss the grave oppression of masks and six feet of air.

This thread is for ridiculing Biden, Trump, and idiots betting on them.

Local rules: this particular bet, as well as betting on 2020 presidential election in general, and discussing the election itself is on topic. Everything else, including the usual P&S bullshit (you know who you are) is not.

Sorry, that was my fault.

Check out front page of predictit:


https://www.predictit.org/

Notice anything off?

Not sure what you're getting at here, but PredictIt is still going to be one of the worst sources for information. Biden is possible the worst candidate to face Trump come November. They literally had a chance here to pick someone that would energize their voters to not only get Trump out of office, but to bring forward Democrat ideals to the forefront of politics (Universal Healthcare, Community College, etc) -- but they picked Biden who is ugh-- Biden.

Would much rather go with 538 here - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/  - I know this is just aggregate general election polling, but still much better then PredictIt gambling degenerates trying to pick something.

This is also pretty interesting to see as well - 538 aggregate of polls on the race for Congress - Dems have a pretty large lead on that at the moment - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=irpromo

Notice anything off?

Trump looks happier than Biden? There is still some red left on the map? Alaska and Hawaii have been sold to Mexico?

I give up. What is it?

The market for next president has Trump favored 50 - 47.

But you can also bet on who will win each state, those 50 markets have Biden winning 290-248 electoral votes.



290 -248 is pretty strong.  In that scenario Biden could afford to WI or MI and still win.  If he were to lose WI and AZ, it would be 269 - 269...not sure how that would play out.

Edit: I now see what you're getting at. Still a bad market.

BUT 269-269 would leave the house to decide, but in an altered state -- as each state delegation would get one vote which would most likely leave the Presidency in the hands of Trump. See below on how that split works out:

Who would win the presidency in a tie?

Each state's Congressional House delegation would have one vote, regardless of how many Districts are in the state. The GOP held a decided 32-17 edge in control of these state congressional delegations prior to the 2018 midterms. With the start of the 116th congress, that partisan split is much more even. Republicans now control 26 states, Democrats 22. Michigan and Pennsylvania are tied. 



*This was a historically high number, most elections have none.

^ Congress can modify this date.

Senate would pick the VP -- giving it to Pence.

[TwitchySeal]

Not sure what you're getting at here, but PredictIt is still going to be one of the worst sources for information. Biden is possible the worst candidate to face Trump come November. They literally had a chance here to pick someone that would energize their voters to not only get Trump out of office, but to bring forward Democrat ideals to the forefront of politics (Universal Healthcare, Community College, etc) -- but they picked Biden who is ugh-- Biden.

Would much rather go with 538 here - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/  - I know this is just aggregate general election polling, but still much better then PredictIt gambling degenerates trying to pick something.

This is also pretty interesting to see as well - 538 aggregate of polls on the race for Congress - Dems have a pretty large lead on that at the moment - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=irpromo

I agree fivethirtyeight is the best when it comes to crunching numbers.  

No matter who's running against Trump, they're going to be pushed at the absolute worst.  Hillary was had great approval ratings as First Lady, Senator, Secretary of State and during 2008 primaries.  Even Republicans loved her.

Same with Biden.  His career was basically scandal free, nobody hated him, and after the 2016 election there was a lot of talk about if only it were Biden instead of Hillary.

Senate would pick the VP -- giving it to Pence.

Even if the Dems won the senate?  

[squatz1]

Not sure what you're getting at here, but PredictIt is still going to be one of the worst sources for information. Biden is possible the worst candidate to face Trump come November. They literally had a chance here to pick someone that would energize their voters to not only get Trump out of office, but to bring forward Democrat ideals to the forefront of politics (Universal Healthcare, Community College, etc) -- but they picked Biden who is ugh-- Biden.

Would much rather go with 538 here - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/  - I know this is just aggregate general election polling, but still much better then PredictIt gambling degenerates trying to pick something.

This is also pretty interesting to see as well - 538 aggregate of polls on the race for Congress - Dems have a pretty large lead on that at the moment - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=irpromo

I agree fivethirtyeight is the best when it comes to crunching numbers.  

No matter who's running against Trump, they're going to be pushed at the absolute worst.  Hillary was had great approval ratings as First Lady, Senator, Secretary of State and during 2008 primaries.  Even Republicans loved her.

Same with Biden.  His career was basically scandal free, nobody hated him, and after the 2016 election there was a lot of talk about if only it were Biden instead of Hillary.

Senate would pick the VP -- giving it to Pence.

Even if the Dems won the senate?  

I read a bit wrong into this, it would be the NEW CONGRESS that would decide this task. Tough to say on if the Republicans are going to be able to hold their state delegation lead and the Senate, but it is possible.

Even then, if they hold the state delegations, that guarantees them control of the Executive for another 4 years. If the Dems picked their VP to be Biden, Warren, Sanders, etc --- they're just not going to be able to do anything but go settle some ties in the senate (their only real constitutional mandate). Anyone that isn't Pence / a Republican is just going to be relegated to join the other (MANY) useless VP's who just sit around and wait for their President to die.

The Atlantic has a good piece on this - https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/07/what-happens-if-2020-election-tie/593608/ - Talks about how close some of the delegations are (on both sides) and how the delegation race could be decided by one congressional district in many states.

[PrimeNumber7]

Senate would pick the VP -- giving it to Pence.

Presumably, the Senate would know in advance who the House will elect as President, so if Biden is going to be elected by the House, the Senate would probably elect Trump as VP.

Given Biden's mental state, he is likely to be much more than a figurehead President, and will probably not be able to serve his entire term as just a figurehead.

If Biden is President and Trump is VP, you may actually see democrats calling for Biden to either be impeached or to step down so Trump would not be eligible for a 3rd term if he serves less than 2 years as actual President after the 2020 election.

If you think politics were filled with drama today....

[TwitchySeal]

Even then, if they hold the state delegations, that guarantees them control of the Executive for another 4 years. If the Dems picked their VP to be Biden, Warren, Sanders, etc --- they're just not going to be able to do anything but go settle some ties in the senate (their only real constitutional mandate). Anyone that isn't Pence / a Republican is just going to be relegated to join the other (MANY) useless VP's who just sit around and wait for their President to die.

The Atlantic has a good piece on this - https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/07/what-happens-if-2020-election-tie/593608/ - Talks about how close some of the delegations are (on both sides) and how the delegation race could be decided by one congressional district in many states.

Great article.  Kind of terrifying though.

Senate would pick the VP -- giving it to Pence.

Presumably, the Senate would know in advance who the House will elect as President, so if Biden is going to be elected by the House, the Senate would probably elect Trump as VP.

Given Biden's mental state, he is likely to be much more than a figurehead President, and will probably not be able to serve his entire term as just a figurehead.

If Biden is President and Trump is VP, you may actually see democrats calling for Biden to either be impeached or to step down so Trump would not be eligible for a 3rd term if he serves less than 2 years as actual President after the 2020 election.

If you think politics were filled with drama today....

The image of Trump being Bidens VP is a funny one. But if it were to happen he would probably get Spirrow Agnewd*.  We know for sure he's an unindicted co-conspirator in at least one case, I wouldn't be surprised if there are several sealed indictments waiting for him in Manhattan right now and the DOJ would have a green light to look into federal charges the second Trump stepped down to VP.

*Nixons VP was given a get out of jail free card facing multiple fraud and bribery charges in exchange for resigning as VP.  Ford took his spot.  And then he took Nixons 9 months later.

[suchmoon]

The market for next president has Trump favored 50 - 47.

Well, I keep hearing there is massive election fraud happening so maybe they're counting on Trump to cheat.

It's 48:49 now but still in Trump's favor.

[TwitchySeal]

Latest Rasmussen Report was pretty ugly.

Trumps favorite polling company sponsored by Trumps favorite TV network.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll sponsored by Jack Posobiec of OANN for Wednesday shows that 42% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty-seven percent (57%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 30% who Strongly Approve of the job Trump is doing and 47% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -17. (see trends).

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_may27

[TECSHARE]

Senate would pick the VP -- giving it to Pence.

Presumably, the Senate would know in advance who the House will elect as President, so if Biden is going to be elected by the House, the Senate would probably elect Trump as VP.

Given Biden's mental state, he is likely to be much more than a figurehead President, and will probably not be able to serve his entire term as just a figurehead.

If Biden is President and Trump is VP, you may actually see democrats calling for Biden to either be impeached or to step down so Trump would not be eligible for a 3rd term if he serves less than 2 years as actual President after the 2020 election.

If you think politics were filled with drama today....

It is not constitutional for a president to serve a 3rd term, even by this convoluted route. He would not even be eligible for VP. Very interesting narrative though.

[TwitchySeal]

Senate would pick the VP -- giving it to Pence.

Presumably, the Senate would know in advance who the House will elect as President, so if Biden is going to be elected by the House, the Senate would probably elect Trump as VP.

Given Biden's mental state, he is likely to be much more than a figurehead President, and will probably not be able to serve his entire term as just a figurehead.

If Biden is President and Trump is VP, you may actually see democrats calling for Biden to either be impeached or to step down so Trump would not be eligible for a 3rd term if he serves less than 2 years as actual President after the 2020 election.

If you think politics were filled with drama today....

It is not constitutional for a president to serve a 3rd term, even by this convoluted route. He would not even be eligible for VP. Very interesting narrative though.

Prime is correct.  If he serves for less than 2 years after replacing Biden,  he could be elected for a second time and serve 4 more years.

Prime is saying the dems would force Biden out so Trump would be forced to serve more than 2 years and therefore ineligible to run in 2024.  (surely Trump would resign 1 day before he hit the 2 year mark though, right?)

Here's the constitution:

Section 1. No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of President more than once. But this Article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President when this Article was proposed by Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this Article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term.

Section 2. This Article shall be inoperative unless it shall have been ratified as an amendment to the Constitution by the legislatures of three-fourths of the several States within seven years from the date of its submission to the States by the Congress.

[TECSHARE]

Senate would pick the VP -- giving it to Pence.

Presumably, the Senate would know in advance who the House will elect as President, so if Biden is going to be elected by the House, the Senate would probably elect Trump as VP.

Given Biden's mental state, he is likely to be much more than a figurehead President, and will probably not be able to serve his entire term as just a figurehead.

If Biden is President and Trump is VP, you may actually see democrats calling for Biden to either be impeached or to step down so Trump would not be eligible for a 3rd term if he serves less than 2 years as actual President after the 2020 election.

If you think politics were filled with drama today....

It is not constitutional for a president to serve a 3rd term, even by this convoluted route. He would not even be eligible for VP. Very interesting narrative though.

Prime is correct.  If he serves for less than 2 years after replacing Biden,  he could be elected for a second time and serve 4 more years.

Prime is saying the dems would force Biden out so Trump would be forced to serve more than 2 years and therefore ineligible to run in 2024.  (surely Trump would resign 1 day before he hit the 2 year mark though, right?)

Here's the constitution:

Section 1. No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of President more than once. But this Article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President when this Article was proposed by Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this Article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term.

Section 2. This Article shall be inoperative unless it shall have been ratified as an amendment to the Constitution by the legislatures of three-fourths of the several States within seven years from the date of its submission to the States by the Congress.

In this context the terms "president" and "vice president" are interchangeable, thus it is unconstitutional.

[TwitchySeal]

Senate would pick the VP -- giving it to Pence.

Presumably, the Senate would know in advance who the House will elect as President, so if Biden is going to be elected by the House, the Senate would probably elect Trump as VP.

Given Biden's mental state, he is likely to be much more than a figurehead President, and will probably not be able to serve his entire term as just a figurehead.

If Biden is President and Trump is VP, you may actually see democrats calling for Biden to either be impeached or to step down so Trump would not be eligible for a 3rd term if he serves less than 2 years as actual President after the 2020 election.

If you think politics were filled with drama today....

It is not constitutional for a president to serve a 3rd term, even by this convoluted route. He would not even be eligible for VP. Very interesting narrative though.

Prime is correct.  If he serves for less than 2 years after replacing Biden,  he could be elected for a second time and serve 4 more years.

Prime is saying the dems would force Biden out so Trump would be forced to serve more than 2 years and therefore ineligible to run in 2024.  (surely Trump would resign 1 day before he hit the 2 year mark though, right?)

Here's the constitution:

Section 1. No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of President more than once. But this Article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President when this Article was proposed by Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this Article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term.

Section 2. This Article shall be inoperative unless it shall have been ratified as an amendment to the Constitution by the legislatures of three-fourths of the several States within seven years from the date of its submission to the States by the Congress.

In this context the terms "president" and "vice president" are interchangeable, thus it is unconstitutional.

Biden would already be ineligible then.  He's been elected President/Vice President twice.

I might be misunderstanding you though.  What makes you think vice president and president are interchangeable.

[squatz1]

Senate would pick the VP -- giving it to Pence.

Presumably, the Senate would know in advance who the House will elect as President, so if Biden is going to be elected by the House, the Senate would probably elect Trump as VP.

Given Biden's mental state, he is likely to be much more than a figurehead President, and will probably not be able to serve his entire term as just a figurehead.

If Biden is President and Trump is VP, you may actually see democrats calling for Biden to either be impeached or to step down so Trump would not be eligible for a 3rd term if he serves less than 2 years as actual President after the 2020 election.

If you think politics were filled with drama today....

It is not constitutional for a president to serve a 3rd term, even by this convoluted route. He would not even be eligible for VP. Very interesting narrative though.

Prime is correct.  If he serves for less than 2 years after replacing Biden,  he could be elected for a second time and serve 4 more years.

Prime is saying the dems would force Biden out so Trump would be forced to serve more than 2 years and therefore ineligible to run in 2024.  (surely Trump would resign 1 day before he hit the 2 year mark though, right?)

Here's the constitution:

Section 1. No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of President more than once. But this Article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President when this Article was proposed by Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this Article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term.

Section 2. This Article shall be inoperative unless it shall have been ratified as an amendment to the Constitution by the legislatures of three-fourths of the several States within seven years from the date of its submission to the States by the Congress.

Pretty sure this is what you guys are talking about in common peoples terms:

The [25th] amendment caps the service of a president at 10 years. If a person succeeds to the office of president without election and serves less than two years, he may run for two full terms; otherwise, a person succeeding to office of president can serve no more than a single elected term. Although there have been some calls for repeal of the amendment, because it disallows voters to democratically elect the president of their choice, it has proved uncontroversial over the years. Nevertheless, presidents who win a second term in office are often referred to as “lame ducks,” and the race to succeed them often begins even before their inauguration to a second term.

And on the subject of Biden for a second, I don't think this was mentioned thus far -- but there is no term limits or anything for the Vice President. You can serve as the VP for as many terms as you're elected for -- though the most anyone has done is 8. Plus I mean, who in gods name wants to be the VP for more then 8 years. Unless you're praying on your Pres to die of course.

[PrimeNumber7]

Prime is correct.  If he serves for less than 2 years after replacing Biden,  he could be elected for a second time and serve 4 more years.

Prime is saying the dems would force Biden out so Trump would be forced to serve more than 2 years and therefore ineligible to run in 2024.  (surely Trump would resign 1 day before he hit the 2 year mark though, right?)

Here's the constitution:

Section 1. No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of President more than once. But this Article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President when this Article was proposed by Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this Article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term.

Section 2. This Article shall be inoperative unless it shall have been ratified as an amendment to the Constitution by the legislatures of three-fourths of the several States within seven years from the date of its submission to the States by the Congress.

In short, the constitution says if you have served more than two years in a presidential term in which you were not elected president, it counts as you serving one term as if you were elected.

If Trump was elected VP, he should pardon himself, his family and his businesses to stop him from being the target of more politically motivated prosecutions. The fact that he has not broken any laws does not matter. There is even an argument that he should do this before he leaves office, however, I see it being less likely he will be the target of a politically motivated prosecution after he is no longer president because doing so will do very little.

[eddie13]

I'm still as confident as ever..

Even seeing some former D voters shilling the libertarian party girl..

[PrimeNumber7]

I'm still as confident as ever..

Even seeing some former D voters shilling the libertarian party girl.

The speed in which the video of George Floyd went as viral as it did, is troubling to me. Don't get me wrong, what happened was very wrong, and the officers involved should be held to account. However we have never seen protests, let alone riots happen as quickly as they did in the Twin Cities after other police shootings in years past.

The rioters are professionally organized, and they had started rioting within 24 hours of the police first interacting with Floyd, and the video had gone widely viral. There are now widespread reports, across many cities that professional protestors/rioters are causing riots across America. Floyd's death is very tragic, and should not have happened, but something makes me feel like what happened afterward did not happen naturally (someone is doing something to harm the US, and in turn, harm Trump's election prospects).

[suchmoon]

someone is doing something to harm the US, and in turn, harm Trump's election prospects

Either that, or Trump is capable only of inflaming crises, not solving them. We'll never know for sure.