[BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon

[cryping]

Trump will certainly not win in 2020

[JollyGood]

I do remember now you mentioned it...

Just to be clear, you are right about the WHO. I mean there is some talk about them being aware of the risk posed at the time but suppressed it. It was also documented that those that were blowing the whistle in China and informing the world about COVID-19 months before it became a household name, people were vanishing and I think the true extent of the number of dead was something that was also suppressed.

And that lab you referred to was also in Wuhan so with the US government saying the virus was created in that laboratory and was passed on to humans from there might have some merit.

In the early stages, Trump refused to take the COVID-19 threat seriously even though US governmental advisers were forecasting major problems, that cannot be denied.

When things went wrong he changed his tune and started blaming China, the WHO and anybody he could point a finger at but himself.

In the early stages china and their pet the WHO covered up as much as they could..
China dissapeared all sorts of people who were trying to blow the whistle, and even shut down labs trying sequence the new virus..

No human to human transmission..  Only people that ate bats from the wuhan wet market (next to their level 4 biolab) could have got it..
Don't remember?

[Cnut237]

It strikes me that a reasonably likely outcome of the election is that Trump loses but refuses to accept that he's lost.

I appreciate that this doesn't affect the bet, because that's based on the EC decision, and apologies if this potential outcome has already been covered - I've read some of the thread, but not all 21 pages.

Does anyone else think that this might happen? Biden is comfortably ahead in polling. Trump has demonstrated throughout his presidency that truth and laws are inconveniences that can be manipulated, sidestepped or outright ignored. He is already laying the groundwork for a challenge against the result...

RIGGED 2020 ELECTION: MILLIONS OF MAIL-IN BALLOTS WILL BE PRINTED BY FOREIGN COUNTRIES, AND OTHERS. IT WILL BE THE SCANDAL OF OUR TIMES!

His party is complicit in this approach, as we saw with the impeachment acquittal. How far will they be willing to go? What if states where Republicans control the legislature are ordered to refuse to accept Democratic victory?

[suchmoon]

His party is complicit in this approach, as we saw with the impeachment acquittal. How far will they be willing to go? What if states where Republicans control the legislature are ordered to refuse to accept Democratic victory?

I think the party supports him only because he controls the base, i.e. any Republican candidate turning against Trump is almost guaranteed to lose in primaries to a trumpist. And they know he'll appoint the "correct" judges etc. But as long as he's no longer useful he'll be discarded. I doubt there would be any significant support for a coup attempt if Trump loses. There might be some desperate legal maneuvers if the result is close but that's about it. Trump has also pissed the military off so I don't think he can count on support there. If he wants to hole up in the White House he probably could but that wouldn't stop the actual transfer of power.

There is even talk from the Republican establishment that Trump should be discarded before the election because he's clearly not interested in fixing his campaign. I doubt that'll happen though. I hope that doesn't happen, I want a win, not a draw LOL.

[eddie13]

I've had some trouble with authorities but not even close to that.

Not that I was perfectly innocent.. I owned a 7 bedroom "flop house" (the police called it) at the time, right down town next door to the mayor's son, renting out all the rooms ($$), lots of people traffic coming and going, loud partying, more than a few unsavory characters coming and going..

Bunch of my closest friends at the time ended up doing pretty serious time after they got into drugs, but I never liked drugs myself.. I'm grateful and lucky that something about me just never really was interested in or wanted to do drugs like too many others have been ruined over.. I was more of a drinker (kinda wild)..
I consider myself somewhat of a survivor..

I have been completely out of trouble and off paper for probably 7 years or so now, started over from nothing again, doing pretty well, stick much more to myself and just very few close friends and family..
Not so adventurous anymore.. Kinda hate the government since though..

It strikes me that a reasonably likely outcome of the election is that Trump loses but refuses to accept that he's lost.

It strikes me ad exceptionally likely that Trump/R voters are keeping their heads down amidst all this rioting crap and Trump will win in November no matter what all the polls and propaganda may have you believe..

Also, to me the though of Trump freaking out and going all dictator refusing to leave office if he loses is absolutely ridiculous..
I think if you believe this you have been drinking wayyy to much progressive "orange man bad" coolaid, buying into their narrative of him being some sort of deranged lunatic, which he absolutely is not..  
People saying things like this to me sound absolutely ridiculous.. NPC sheep just eating up anything CNN will drop on the ground for you to lap up.. Slurp slurp...

Trump has NOT done a poor job as president especially considering all of the fake impeachment scandals he has been put through, lunaitic leftists in general, the Kav scandal, and even has not done bad on the whole china virus situation (depending on your favorite flavor of propaganda)..

But yeah, lets just vote for Biden to open the boarders to all welfare seekers, and force just whites to pay reparations to every person in the world with a drop of brown in them..
We can even join the EU, get rid of the USD for the euro, ban all guns, institute socialism in every way possible until they run out of other people's money, get rid of our freedom of speech so mentally ill trannies and such don't get their feelers hurt ("hate speech"), paint all the streets up with buttsex flags, increase the SCOTUS count and pack it with progressives so we can weasel loopholes around the constitution, defund all the police and let the hood rat gangsters and ms13 foreigners run the show in the cities, etc.. America was made great and rich because of freedom, liberty, and capitalism.. Let's just toss all that out the window for some good old marxism that has been soo successful wherever implemented across the world.

Sounds like a utopia to me..
It's not all bad though.. It's probably the most direct path to anarchism..

Have a plan to get away from dense urban populations (when the trucks stop rolling they will eat YOU), own some self defense tools and food stores, HODL BTC and gold/metals..
Strap on your huggies boys, were goin on an adventure


Still not very worried that I'll lose this bet.. I don't feel like the chances have changed much at all..
Actually I think chances are getting better the closer we get without anything completely insane happening that is actually Trump's fault..

[squatz1]

His party is complicit in this approach, as we saw with the impeachment acquittal. How far will they be willing to go? What if states where Republicans control the legislature are ordered to refuse to accept Democratic victory?

I think the party supports him only because he controls the base, i.e. any Republican candidate turning against Trump is almost guaranteed to lose in primaries to a trumpist. And they know he'll appoint the "correct" judges etc. But as long as he's no longer useful he'll be discarded. I doubt there would be any significant support for a coup attempt if Trump loses. There might be some desperate legal maneuvers if the result is close but that's about it. Trump has also pissed the military off so I don't think he can count on support there. If he wants to hole up in the White House he probably could but that wouldn't stop the actual transfer of power.

There is even talk from the Republican establishment that Trump should be discarded before the election because he's clearly not interested in fixing his campaign. I doubt that'll happen though. I hope that doesn't happen, I want a win, not a draw LOL.

100% Trump commands the Republican base and everyone in the GOP knows this. If Trump loses this power, the GOP incumbents will turn against him like they'll do with anyone else.

Think about it in terms of this - Bush had sway over the party while he was the President, as did every Republican and Democrat before him for his respective party. Whenever Bush comes out and talks bad about Trump, no one cares and the senators / reps for the Republicans don't do anything because they know they'll lose their primary if Trump goes against them.

For god sake look at Jeff Sessions - guy was one of Trumps first supporters and now he just lost a primary (by a LONG SHOT) to someone who has never worked in politics before.

[TwitchySeal]

TIL Trumps day 1,277 disapproval rating is almost identical to the last 2 presidents that didn't get elected to a second term.



Still not getting my hopes up.

[suchmoon]

Still not getting my hopes up.

Maybe this will help: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6XdpDOH1JA

Trump doing his best Michael Scott impersonation yet.

[TwitchySeal]

Still not getting my hopes up.

Maybe this will help: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6XdpDOH1JA

Trump doing his best Michael Scott impersonation yet.

Just watched that.  Wonder how hard Trumps staff begged him not to do that interview.  Jeez.

Still, there's nothing he can say that is too stupid because look at fill in the blank.

[squatz1]

Still not getting my hopes up.

Maybe this will help: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6XdpDOH1JA

Trump doing his best Michael Scott impersonation yet.

Just watched that.  Wonder how hard Trumps staff begged him not to do that interview.  Jeez.

Still, there's nothing he can say that is too stupid because look at fill in the blank.

That interview was TRULY very horrible. Doesn't really make voters happy when there's a global pandemic and you turn to the reporter and say that you'll be right at somepoint.

People don't want this to be a dick measuring contest about who is right and who is wrong. People want solutions to a problem and they want leadership which will make sure that they're safe. People want the economy to recover just like Trump does, but rushing it does nothing more then make this a bigger problem then it is right now. That's the issue that we've seen in Florida and a large amount of the south, where they didn't heed the warnings of other states that were hit harder initially - Washington, New York, etc -- and just reopened without science backing it up.

[suchmoon]

That interview was TRULY very horrible. Doesn't really make voters happy when there's a global pandemic and you turn to the reporter and say that you'll be right at somepoint.

I think he genuinely doesn't give a shit about the pandemic. At one point he was complaining how unfair it is that he's "not allowed" to have rallies in Michigan etc.

[PrimeNumber7]

Chris Wallace was on Special Report today and said that Trump took all the questions asked of him and that Biden has not had that same level of scrutiny.

Regarding the pandemic, Angela Merkel said in ~March that 70% of the population of Germany should expect to get the virus. IMO, this would have been much better messaging for Trump versus “it will eventually disappear”. The estimated overall death rate (not case rate, which has a selection bias) is estimated to be about 0.3%, but this is skewed towards the elderly and those in poor health. If those most vulnerable were to be protected, the death rate would be even lower.

[squatz1]

That interview was TRULY very horrible. Doesn't really make voters happy when there's a global pandemic and you turn to the reporter and say that you'll be right at somepoint.

I think he genuinely doesn't give a shit about the pandemic. At one point he was complaining how unfair it is that he's "not allowed" to have rallies in Michigan etc.

I don't even understand the rational behind ignoring the pandemic by the way. The pandemic is still ravaging onwards in the southern states, and even if it all just went poof 130k Americans still did just die in a few months because of this. It probably isn't the best idea to continue to talk about this like it isn't a major issue right now.

Republicans are beginning to break ranks with Trump, as they think that the pandemic isn't just going to magically go poof anytime soon.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/19/us/politics/republicans-contradict-trump-coronavirus.html

Republicans governors are going to be breaking ranks in the next few week (Gov of Texas already has, and Gov of Florida, DeSantis, probably will soon) Because they know that this is a losing issue.

I've said this time and time again. No one will punish you for being too cautious, but not being cautious enough is going to land you with no job come re-election.

[PrimeNumber7]

I've said this time and time again. No one will punish you for being too cautious, but not being cautious enough is going to land you with no job come re-election.

That is nonsense. Being too cautious will put your entire population out of work. In April and May, there were protests against the lockdowns, even under the threat of arrest.

It is not possible to remove all risk from everything. I would note that in most of the country, the risk of death from the coronavirus is roughly in line with driving to work everyday.

[squatz1]

I've said this time and time again. No one will punish you for being too cautious, but not being cautious enough is going to land you with no job come re-election.

That is nonsense. Being too cautious will put your entire population out of work. In April and May, there were protests against the lockdowns, even under the threat of arrest.

It is not possible to remove all risk from everything. I would note that in most of the country, the risk of death from the coronavirus is roughly in line with driving to work everyday.

Being too cautious does not mean keeping everything closed. It means making rational decisions based on science when it is shown that the Coronavirus isn't spreading like a wildfire in your state.

If you follow science and public health officials, you'll be able to see when it makes sense to go through a phased plan of reeopening. While we all want everything to go back to normal, that's just not possible right now in a large portion of the US.

And here's the death rates for Corona - https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51674743

For older people (the at risk portion of the population that we're trying to save here) the risk ranges from 3-10% chance of death based on age and underlying conditions (heart issue, breathing issues, diabetes, etc)

[JollyGood]

How can you be so sure he will not win?

Trump will certainly not win in 2020

[actmyname]

How can you be so sure he will not win?

Trump will certainly not win in 2020

If I believe it, and you believe it, and everyone else believes it, then it might as well be true!

₂₊₂₌₅

[Gyfts]

How can you be so sure he will not win?

Trump will certainly not win in 2020

We're over a 100 days out so obviously things can change but the polling numbers are absolutely brutal: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

Trump's not going to win the popular vote so national polling isn't all too accurate of the electoral college which is all that matters, but the swing state polls look pretty ugly too.

Lots of public health experts have went on the record saying this Fall and Winter are going to be brutal from the perspective of public health and safety. Coronavirus is not going to go away by November and the CBO predicts a 10 percent unemployment rate by the end of the year. Can't campaign on eliminating coronavirus, and can't campaign on the economy.

[eddie13]

>50% chance Trump is right on the china virus, as in that interview that was posted above..


http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2020/july/06/theyre-lying-about-covidyet-the-fear-filled-public-still-believes/




https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-deaths-united-states-each-day-2020-n1177936

[Viper1]

Of course the mortality rate would go down as they learn how to handle it better. In addition, young people are more resistant to it and it's been more of them recently. However, I've also heard that it's moving from them now back to the older population. In addition to all that, it takes several weeks from when a case is diagnosed to when a person might actually die from it. So the spikes in cases we're seeing won't probably result in any sort of major uptick in deaths for a couple more weeks or so maybe. So touting mortality rates or making claims like Ron Paul did is just ludicrous. We won't know anything for sure about an overall number for many months to come.