Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[BADecker]

The thing that is really going on is, Putin is simply waiting. He could have conquered Ukraine easily, long ago. But that wouldn't have helped him (or maybe anybody) long term.


Transactional Weakness Tips the Balance of Power – ‘Hold to no Illusions; There is Nothing Beyond This Reality’


https://ronpaulinstitute.org/transactional-weakness-tips-the-balance-of-power-hold-to-no-illusions-there-is-nothing-beyond-this-reality/
The post-WWII geo-political outcome effectively determined the post-war global economic structure. Both are now undergoing huge change. What remains stuck fast however, is the general (Western) weltanschauung that everything must "change" only for it to stay the same. Things financial will continue as before; do not disturb the slumber. The assumption is that the oligarch/donor class will see to it that things remain the same.

However, the power distribution of the post-war era was unique. There is nothing "forever" about it; nothing inherently permanent.

At a recent conference of Russian industrialists and entrepreneurs, President Putin highlighted both the global fracture, and set out an alternate vision which is likely to be adopted by BRICS and many beyond. His address was, metaphorically speaking, the financial counterpart to his 2007 Munich Security Forum speech, at which he accepted the military défie posed by "collective NATO."

...

Today’s negotiations with Washington (now narrowly centred on Ukraine) reflect this logic. Russia isn’t begging for sanctions relief or threatening anything specific. It is conducting strategic procrastination: waiting out electoral cycles, testing Western unity, and keeping all doors ajar. Yet Putin is not adverse either to exerting a little pressure of his own – the window for accepting Russian sovereignty of the four eastern oblasts is not forever: “This point can also move,” he said.
...

[BADecker]

Two major things are happening with Russian attacks on Ukraine:
1. Russians are attacking in very aggressive ways;
2. Ukraine is losing badly.

Russia has two goals:
1. Take Ukraine down before NATO can bring real support to Ukraine;
2. Prepare to protect themselves against any NATO operations.

So far Ukraine/NATO hasn't been successful against Russia.

Somebody should get rid of Zelensky for fighting a losing war, and killing a bunch of civilians using the Russian military machine.


Massive Russian Strikes On Kiev & Zelensky's Hometown Trigger Complaints Of 'Weak' US Reaction


https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/massive-russian-strikes-kiev-zelenskys-hometown-trigger-complaints-weak-us-reaction
Russia launched a large missile attack on the Ukrainian capital early Sunday, which killed one person and injured at least three others. More missile and drone strikes in other locations across the country left at least one more person dead.

Russia "launched a massive nationwide attack on Ukraine using ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones" in the early hours, described Ukraine's first deputy prime minister Yulia Svyrydenko.

Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko said that "the body of a man killed in an enemy attack was discovered in Darnytsia district. He was on the street, near the epicentre of the explosion. The man's identity is being established."

In total Ukraine's air force announced that Russia attacked Ukraine with 23 cruise and ballistic missiles and 109 drones across different regions, saying that 13 of the missiles were intercepted, along with 40 drones.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has lately been aggressively criticizing the 'weak' response of the Trump administration in the US.

Responding to a major Russian missile attack on central Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih on Friday - which Ukrainian authorities say killed 18 people, including nine children - Zelensky wrote on social media, "Unfortunately, the reaction of the American embassy is unpleasantly surprising: such a strong country, such a strong people — and such a weak reaction."

"They are even afraid to say the word 'Russian' when talking about the missile that killed the children," he added. The attack was on Zelensky's hometown, and was seen as symbolic of the Kremlin desire to see Zelensky ousted. The attack was reportedly unleashed on a residential area.

He followed this by describing Sunday that Russian aerial attacks are only increasing, which demonstrate that international pressure and the ongoing talks with the US are doing nothing.

Currently both sides have agreed to halt attacks on each's energy infrastructure, but both have accused the other of breaking the partial ceasefire.

Additionally, a Black Sea naval ceasefire is in the works, but Russia says it is awaiting certain measures from the West before this can be implemented, specifically reconnecting its agricultural banks to the Swift international payment system.

The Trump administration has said it is aware that President Putin could be stalling, and that it won't allow negotiations about starting negotiations to just drag on forever. Secretary of State Rubio recently said the US is giving Putin "weeks, not months" to make a decision.
...

[DaRude]

Putin recently listed his terms for peace. One of them was that a UN group including Trump do the negotiations rather than Zelensky. This because Zelensky doesn't have authority to sign peace agreements since his term as president of Ukraine expired.

Trump didn't like this... especially the part about Zelensky not having authority. So Trump spurned Putin's peace negotiations idea.

Now Putin has sent 160,000 more troops into the battle.

That really turned Trump off. How long before Trump gets the US formally involved? Will it really mean a nuke war?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-angry-putin-zelenskyy-iran-sanctions-rcna198729

President Donald Trump said he was “very angry” and “pissed off” when Russian President Vladimir Putin criticized the credibility of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s leadership, adding that the comments were “not going in the right location.”

BA, this is the risk of following Trump... you say stuff the next day and... you are already a day late on the "latest thinking" about the topic

Putin would very much like to impose this and that condition, but in the end there is a practical limit to the years he can wage war. However, I do not think there is practical limit to the years the US can keep this up. All the "billions" in aid are barely 0.7% of the US GDP.

I guess it is going to take a while more for Trump to understand that he has these options:

a) Leave Ukraine. He will look like the weakest US leader ever and his expansionistic discourse will look empty - any difficulty and you run. Ukraine could potentially keep fighting for one year with EU's help.

b) Keep supplying insufficient aid to Ukraine. The war will last until Ruzzia decides that is getting too hot. I guess a couple of years.

c) Supply decissive aid to Ukraine. Ruzzia will consider that is getting to hot the moment they start loosing territory. I guess proper understanding could be reached in a year.

I wish I was wrong, but this is not ending soon unless Putin sees a clear drive from the US to make them back-up in the front.

Ukraine cannot fight without US's weapons. Already the amount of arrivals in Ukrainian cities is a clear indication that UA's air defenses are critically low.

Trump is making China a priority, and doesn't care about Ukraine. Not sure how he can make that any clearer.

China's oil consumption to tick up 1.1% in 2025, CNPC think tank says
Now ask yourself whether providing China with a discount on Russian oil/gas/metals makes any strategic sense when you put constraining China as your top priority. Or making Russia redirect it's resources away from China into say Europe and letting Russia keep Ukraine makes more sense. Once you realize that, everything that will happen next will become obvious.

Yes they can with any weapons. Europe can supply enough to keep the war going.

...

As usual you left the most important part out, Europe can keep the war going until what? Until Ukraine triumphs over Russia? (Think we can all see how well that was going even with the USA's help) Or until Ukrain slowly bleeds out of lads to send to the front aka until the last Ukrainian, in that case how will that benefit Europe exactly?

[paxmao]

Putin recently listed his terms for peace. One of them was that a UN group including Trump do the negotiations rather than Zelensky. This because Zelensky doesn't have authority to sign peace agreements since his term as president of Ukraine expired.

Trump didn't like this... especially the part about Zelensky not having authority. So Trump spurned Putin's peace negotiations idea.

Now Putin has sent 160,000 more troops into the battle.

That really turned Trump off. How long before Trump gets the US formally involved? Will it really mean a nuke war?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-angry-putin-zelenskyy-iran-sanctions-rcna198729

President Donald Trump said he was “very angry” and “pissed off” when Russian President Vladimir Putin criticized the credibility of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s leadership, adding that the comments were “not going in the right location.”

BA, this is the risk of following Trump... you say stuff the next day and... you are already a day late on the "latest thinking" about the topic

Putin would very much like to impose this and that condition, but in the end there is a practical limit to the years he can wage war. However, I do not think there is practical limit to the years the US can keep this up. All the "billions" in aid are barely 0.7% of the US GDP.

I guess it is going to take a while more for Trump to understand that he has these options:

a) Leave Ukraine. He will look like the weakest US leader ever and his expansionistic discourse will look empty - any difficulty and you run. Ukraine could potentially keep fighting for one year with EU's help.

b) Keep supplying insufficient aid to Ukraine. The war will last until Ruzzia decides that is getting too hot. I guess a couple of years.

c) Supply decissive aid to Ukraine. Ruzzia will consider that is getting to hot the moment they start loosing territory. I guess proper understanding could be reached in a year.

I wish I was wrong, but this is not ending soon unless Putin sees a clear drive from the US to make them back-up in the front.

Ukraine cannot fight without US's weapons. Already the amount of arrivals in Ukrainian cities is a clear indication that UA's air defenses are critically low.

Trump is making China a priority, and doesn't care about Ukraine. Not sure how he can make that any clearer.

China's oil consumption to tick up 1.1% in 2025, CNPC think tank says
Now ask yourself whether providing China with a discount on Russian oil/gas/metals makes any strategic sense when you put constraining China as your top priority. Or making Russia redirect it's resources away from China into say Europe and letting Russia keep Ukraine makes more sense. Once you realize that, everything that will happen next will become obvious.

Yes they can with any weapons. Europe can supply enough to keep the war going.

...

As usual you left the most important part out, Europe can keep the war going until what? Until Ukraine triumphs over Russia? (Think we can all see how well that was going even with the USA's help) Or until Ukrain slowly bleeds out of lads to send to the front aka until the last Ukrainian, in that case how will that benefit Europe exactly?

Until what? Well, Ruzzia has the objective of becoming the USSR again, with influence or direct control over all the Warsaw Pact. So, I guess the war can go on until there is a leader in Ruzzia who decides that there may be much much better ways of making Ruzzia a decent and economically prosperous region.

Alternatively, the war can go on until the oil reaches 40 USD at which point the war will not be sustainable. Or, it can go on until Ruzzia does not longer have oild exporting facilities West of Moscow, or perhaps not either East of Moscow....

Why setting a dealine? It is worth having Ruzzia bagging the head against the wall.

But that is iddle talk, Rubio recently stated that it will be known if Ruzzia wants peace in weeks rather than in months. I mean, I personally already know that Putin does not want peace under the current circumstances and particularly since Trump has been very floral about him, but as I mentioned in a few posts before, Trump is still learning the basics of Ruzzian "diplomacy".

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/4/us-will-know-in-weeks-if-russia-serious-about-ceasefire-rubio-says

Top US diplomat tells NATO counterparts Washington still committed to alliance.

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told his NATO counterparts that it will become clear within weeks if Russia is “serious” about reaching a ceasefire in Ukraine.

He is basically speaking of considering "facts" not declarations, words or anything else. As said, I would not need to wait but I guess Rubio does not want to immediatly send decissive aid to Ukraine before having some further reasons.

[DaRude]

Until what? Well, Ruzzia has the objective of becoming the USSR again, with influence or direct control over all the Warsaw Pact. So, I guess the war can go on until there is a leader in Ruzzia who decides that there may be much much better ways of making Ruzzia a decent and economically prosperous region.

Alternatively, the war can go on until the oil reaches 40 USD at which point the war will not be sustainable. Or, it can go on until Ruzzia does not longer have oild exporting facilities West of Moscow, or perhaps not either East of Moscow....

Why setting a dealine? It is worth having Ruzzia bagging the head against the wall.

But that is iddle talk, Rubio recently stated that it will be known if Ruzzia wants peace in weeks rather than in months. I mean, I personally already know that Putin does not want peace under the current circumstances and particularly since Trump has been very floral about him, but as I mentioned in a few posts before, Trump is still learning the basics of Ruzzian "diplomacy".

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/4/us-will-know-in-weeks-if-russia-serious-about-ceasefire-rubio-says

Top US diplomat tells NATO counterparts Washington still committed to alliance.

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told his NATO counterparts that it will become clear within weeks if Russia is “serious” about reaching a ceasefire in Ukraine.

He is basically speaking of considering "facts" not declarations, words or anything else. As said, I would not need to wait but I guess Rubio does not want to immediatly send decissive aid to Ukraine before having some further reasons.

So just going back to status quo of 2013 is not an option? Your whole propaganda is based on the concept that Russia will attack Poland, Czech republic etc?

Will Ukraine be able to continue to provide enough manpower until there's that change of leadership in Russia you speak of? Or no one really considers UA people or cares enough to even discuss it

Edit: Russia wants peace, just on their terms. But peace on any terms for Zelenskiy means he's no longer a president (if he's even a legitimate president now)

[BADecker]

Ukraine is getting big benefits from Russia-US talks. The benefits are the promise of a lasting peace in Ukraine... no more of their people killed in a useless war. It isn't here, yet, but it is coming... if the EU doesn't mess it up somehow. The method will be to take Zelensky totally off the table, since he is the warmonger who wants to continue killing Ukrainians. He is only Ukrainian by 'adoption', so he doesn't really care.

When the Russia-US talks open up the vast valuable minerals and raw materials of Russia and Siberia to the world, Ukraine will become a has-been, and nobody will want to support it. In addition, MAGA will explode and spill over into Russia.


Russia and the US made "three steps forward" after two days of consultations in Washington


https://ronpaulinstitute.org/russia-and-the-us-made-three-steps-forward-after-two-days-of-consultations-in-washington/
The visit by the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund and special representative of the Russian president for investment and economic cooperation Kirill Dmitriev to Washington on April 2-3, the first such visit by a senior Kremlin official since 2022, appears to have been a modest achievement whose productive outcome will be crucial in the rest of US-Russia relations.

If President Vladimir Putin's choice fell on Dmitriev for such a hugely important pathbreaking mission, that has been for sound reasons. An enduring settlement in Ukraine hinges on the stabilisation of the Russian-American ties which is deeply flawed due to the meagre content of it in substance.

Putin and US President Donald Trump share a conviction that the latter's MAGA project offers a rare window of opportunity to couple Russia's vast resources with the regeneration of the American economy in a new order where geopolitics will no longer be the pivot.
...

[montaga]

MAGA will explode and spill over into Russia

And exactly why would Russians become Satanist of highest order (Fifth Degree)?  https://churchofsatan.com/hierarchy/?amp

Russia-US talks open up the vast valuable minerals and raw materials of Russia and Siberia to the world

There is the first Hiccup, for peacetalks the two warring parties must sit on the table and talk.
Siberian (in a world far away) minerals where open to the world before the sanctions, thank Victoria Nuland for that, she started the whole mess.
Trump will say anything the shady Russian money guarantee will tell him to say
It is astonishing how many still fly with the kamikaze pilot.
Inhereting a lot of wealth and driving it brutal against the wall, filing six times for chapter 11  bankruptcy*.
Or as he would say, curcumventing the law is not a bankruptcy but taking advantage of system/people.
Personaly he also failed maga mega, all his wifes have been importeds.

*Trump Taj Mahal 1991
*Trump Castle Hotel & Casino 1992
*Tramp Plaza Casino 1992
*Trump Plaza Hotel 1992
*Trump Hotels & Casino Resots 2004
*Trump Entertainment Resorts 2009

Also failed:
Trump Steaks
GoTrump (online travel site)
Trump Airlines  
Trump Vodka
Trump Mortgage
Trump: The Game
Trump Magazine
Trump University
Trump Ice (bottled water)
The New Jersey Generals (pro football team)
Tour de Trump (bicycle race)
Trump Network (nutritional supplements)
Trumped! (syndicated radio spot)

[paxmao]

Until what? Well, Ruzzia has the objective of becoming the USSR again, with influence or direct control over all the Warsaw Pact. So, I guess the war can go on until there is a leader in Ruzzia who decides that there may be much much better ways of making Ruzzia a decent and economically prosperous region.

Alternatively, the war can go on until the oil reaches 40 USD at which point the war will not be sustainable. Or, it can go on until Ruzzia does not longer have oild exporting facilities West of Moscow, or perhaps not either East of Moscow....

Why setting a dealine? It is worth having Ruzzia bagging the head against the wall.

But that is iddle talk, Rubio recently stated that it will be known if Ruzzia wants peace in weeks rather than in months. I mean, I personally already know that Putin does not want peace under the current circumstances and particularly since Trump has been very floral about him, but as I mentioned in a few posts before, Trump is still learning the basics of Ruzzian "diplomacy".

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/4/us-will-know-in-weeks-if-russia-serious-about-ceasefire-rubio-says

Top US diplomat tells NATO counterparts Washington still committed to alliance.

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told his NATO counterparts that it will become clear within weeks if Russia is “serious” about reaching a ceasefire in Ukraine.

He is basically speaking of considering "facts" not declarations, words or anything else. As said, I would not need to wait but I guess Rubio does not want to immediatly send decissive aid to Ukraine before having some further reasons.

So just going back to status quo of 2013 is not an option? Your whole propaganda is based on the concept that Russia will attack Poland, Czech republic etc?

Will Ukraine be able to continue to provide enough manpower until there's that change of leadership in Russia you speak of? Or no one really considers UA people or cares enough to even discuss it

Edit: Russia wants peace, just on their terms. But peace on any terms for Zelenskiy means he's no longer a president (if he's even a legitimate president now)

Of course Ruzzia wants peace on their terms. The problem is obviously, the terms which basically consist in getting everything ready for the next invasion. What do you pretend here? Getting people to think Putin is peaceful after 3 years of war? That is cute.

My current thinking and that of many others is that:

- Ruzzia has lost long time ago any credibility in respect to what Putin says and what Putin signs.
- There is clear and factual evidence before everyone's eyes that Ruzzia is willing to invade independent countries, and still believe they have some "right" to do so.

It is irrelevant what you believe or what I believe and certainly calling it propaganda is very stupid from you. There is no propaganda, this is what the current thinking is across many countries.

The fact is that there is no reason whatsoever to allow Ruzzia to take Ukraine, change governments at whim nor use the nuclear capability to threaten others. Wheter Ruzzia has very nice intentions and would not go further than Ukraine... as said, all we know is what Putin has done until now and it is by far safer to think that he will invade the moment he percieves weakness or an opportunity.

The best chance for peace: leave Ruzzia weapons stocks as low as possible, the country with as much debt as possible, the sanctions as high as possible, the diplomacy as damaged as possible and the energy infrastructure destroyed - if possible for several years, while putting in front a modern and well supplied army.

That is "peace guarantees", not a piece of paper. This can be done and should be done - again, the thinking of many based on facts.

BTW, Â seems like oil is reaching a point in which war is going to be even more difficult to finance for Ruzzia. Putin may decide to wait until it goes back to 60 or 70 to invade again - it has been the pattern for now.

[DaRude]

Until what? Well, Ruzzia has the objective of becoming the USSR again, with influence or direct control over all the Warsaw Pact. So, I guess the war can go on until there is a leader in Ruzzia who decides that there may be much much better ways of making Ruzzia a decent and economically prosperous region.

Alternatively, the war can go on until the oil reaches 40 USD at which point the war will not be sustainable. Or, it can go on until Ruzzia does not longer have oild exporting facilities West of Moscow, or perhaps not either East of Moscow....

Why setting a dealine? It is worth having Ruzzia bagging the head against the wall.

But that is iddle talk, Rubio recently stated that it will be known if Ruzzia wants peace in weeks rather than in months. I mean, I personally already know that Putin does not want peace under the current circumstances and particularly since Trump has been very floral about him, but as I mentioned in a few posts before, Trump is still learning the basics of Ruzzian "diplomacy".

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/4/us-will-know-in-weeks-if-russia-serious-about-ceasefire-rubio-says

Top US diplomat tells NATO counterparts Washington still committed to alliance.

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told his NATO counterparts that it will become clear within weeks if Russia is “serious” about reaching a ceasefire in Ukraine.

He is basically speaking of considering "facts" not declarations, words or anything else. As said, I would not need to wait but I guess Rubio does not want to immediatly send decissive aid to Ukraine before having some further reasons.

So just going back to status quo of 2013 is not an option? Your whole propaganda is based on the concept that Russia will attack Poland, Czech republic etc?

Will Ukraine be able to continue to provide enough manpower until there's that change of leadership in Russia you speak of? Or no one really considers UA people or cares enough to even discuss it

Edit: Russia wants peace, just on their terms. But peace on any terms for Zelenskiy means he's no longer a president (if he's even a legitimate president now)

Of course Ruzzia wants peace on their terms. The problem is obviously, the terms which basically consist in getting everything ready for the next invasion. What do you pretend here? Getting people to think Putin is peaceful after 3 years of war? That is cute.

My current thinking and that of many others is that:

- Ruzzia has lost long time ago any credibility in respect to what Putin says and what Putin signs.
- There is clear and factual evidence before everyone's eyes that Ruzzia is willing to invade independent countries, and still believe they have some "right" to do so.

It is irrelevant what you believe or what I believe and certainly calling it propaganda is very stupid from you. There is no propaganda, this is what the current thinking is across many countries.

The fact is that there is no reason whatsoever to allow Ruzzia to take Ukraine, change governments at whim nor use the nuclear capability to threaten others. Wheter Ruzzia has very nice intentions and would not go further than Ukraine... as said, all we know is what Putin has done until now and it is by far safer to think that he will invade the moment he percieves weakness or an opportunity.

The best chance for peace: leave Ruzzia weapons stocks as low as possible, the country with as much debt as possible, the sanctions as high as possible, the diplomacy as damaged as possible and the energy infrastructure destroyed - if possible for several years, while putting in front a modern and well supplied army.

That is "peace guarantees", not a piece of paper. This can be done and should be done - again, the thinking of many based on facts.

BTW, Â seems like oil is reaching a point in which war is going to be even more difficult to finance for Ruzzia. Putin may decide to wait until it goes back to 60 or 70 to invade again - it has been the pattern for now.

That's where we partially agree. The fact is that there is no reason whatsoever to allow another country to change Ukrainian government at a whim. I'm sure everyone would agree that a third highest diplomat from a country on another continent, bringing cookies and supporting coup d'etat against dully elected democratic government is direct meddling by everyone's definition. As we're all well aware, it has been done all over the world, but Ukraine was a red line for Russia, which US decided to ignore. Putin is irrelevant here, we see that Russian elites, generals, and society in general are willing to spill their blood over Ukraine because it is an existential threat for Russia. Thinking that the same applies to Poland (that NATO in Poland is an existential threat to Russia) is just a scary propaganda Ukraine pushes to drum up support for itself, since it became clear that continuing to take Ukraine with force is just no longer of interest for the west.


'F**k the EU,' US envoy says in leaked recording
Nuland is also heard weighing in on the make-up of the next Ukrainian government.
She is heard telling Ambassador Pyatt that she doesn’t think Vitaly Klitschko, the boxer-turned-politician who is a main opposition leader, should have a role in a new government.

“So I don’t think Klitsch (Klitschko) should go into the government,” she said. “I don’t think it’s necessary. I don’t think it’s a good idea.”

She also comments on possible future roles for the two other main protest leaders, Ukraine's former economy minister Arseny Yatseniuk and Oleh Tyahnybok, the far-right nationalist opposition leader.

“I think [Yatseniuk] is the guy who’s got the economic experience, the governing experience. What he needs is [Klitschko] and [Tyahnybok] on the outside. He needs to be talking to them four times a week,” Nuland said in the recording.


  but i'm sure you'll find a way to justify this with American exceptionalism and how that's somehow totally acceptable

You're once again (at this point I'm assuming intentionally) confusing the cause and effect. Dropping oil prices is the effect of the world going into recession, we already see that USA stopped allocating money to Ukraine and now ask yourself what will happen to European aid to Ukraine once Europe itself enters into a recession. But keep on drumming up support to encourage more Ukrainian young to go to the front lines, knowing the futility of this and that outcome has already been decided

[BADecker]

^^^ Who got Zelensky elected, and how were they messing with a government not their own? It goes deep.

Zelensky, supposedly a supporter of Ukrainian freedom, has gotten more Ukrainians killed than just about anybody. Keep the war going. There are still more Ukrainians to kill off.

[paxmao]

The bigger the picture the better the argument?

That's where we partially agree. The fact is that there is no reason whatsoever to allow another country to change Ukrainian government at a whim. I'm sure everyone would agree that a third highest diplomat from a country on another continent, bringing cookies and supporting coup d'etat against dully elected democratic government is direct meddling by everyone's definition. As we're all well aware, it has been done all over the world, but Ukraine was a red line for Russia, which US decided to ignore. Putin is irrelevant here, we see that Russian elites, generals, and society in general are willing to spill their blood over Ukraine because it is an existential threat for Russia. Thinking that the same applies to Poland (that NATO in Poland is an existential threat to Russia) is just a scary propaganda Ukraine pushes to drum up support for itself, since it became clear that continuing to take Ukraine with force is just no longer of interest for the west.

[...]
Nuland is also heard weighing in on the make-up of the next Ukrainian government.
She is heard telling Ambassador Pyatt that she doesn’t think Vitaly Klitschko, the boxer-turned-politician who is a main opposition leader, should have a role in a new government.

“So I don’t think Klitsch (Klitschko) should go into the government,” she said. “I don’t think it’s necessary. I don’t think it’s a good idea.”

She also comments on possible future roles for the two other main protest leaders, Ukraine's former economy minister Arseny Yatseniuk and Oleh Tyahnybok, the far-right nationalist opposition leader.

“I think [Yatseniuk] is the guy who’s got the economic experience, the governing experience. What he needs is [Klitschko] and [Tyahnybok] on the outside. He needs to be talking to them four times a week,” Nuland said in the recording.
[/b][/url]

but i'm sure you'll find a way to justify this with American exceptionalism and how that's somehow totally acceptable

You're once again (at this point I'm assuming intentionally) confusing the cause and effect. Dropping oil prices is the effect of the world going into recession, we already see that USA stopped allocating money to Ukraine and now ask yourself what will happen to European aid to Ukraine once Europe itself enters into a recession. But keep on drumming up support to encourage more Ukrainian young to go to the front lines, knowing the futility of this and that outcome has already been decided

Oh again your fixation... Well let's then talk about what is acceptable...

- On one side you are ok with the imperial vision of Ruzzia as dominant power with full right to impose conditions around and have an area of influence. You are absolutely ok with Ruzzia trying to change a government, not even by soft power, but by direct anhilation.

- while at the same time you complain because someone else think of themselves exactly in the same terms and does the same things (in you view anyway).

Basically, you are complaning of another taur being better a cheating = at a cheater's poker table - than you.You cannot be taken seriously.

Either you accept an imperialistic view, in which case Ruzzia is clearly loosing the case or you are in favour of allowing people to vote, in which case... you are also loosing it.

BTW again and again and again...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation

n February and March 2014, Russia invaded the Crimean Peninsula, part of Ukraine, and then annexed it. This took place in the relative power vacuum[34] immediately following the Revolution of Dignity. It marked the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian War.

Anyone can see why Ukraine was seeking allies, not the other way around.

Again and again... Putin does not need a reason to think he owns half the world...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War

The August 2008 Russo-Georgian War, also known as the Russian invasion of Georgia,[note 3] was a war waged against Georgia by the Russian Federation and the Russian-backed separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The fighting took place in the strategically important South Caucasus region. It is regarded as the first European war of the 21st century.[31]

[YADAYADA]

The August 2008 Russo-Georgian War, also known as the Russian invasion of Georgia,[note 3] was a war waged against Georgia by the Russian Federation and the Russian-backed separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The fighting took place in the strategically important South Caucasus region. It is regarded as the first European war of the 21st century.[31]

That conflict started when Georgia attacked South Ossetia no matter what wikipedia says. The Russians put an end to it in 5 days and no matter what any other idiot source blabbers on about the region there is only interest due to control of part of an energy pipeline and transit region as was the war in Syria when assad refused to do business on the Qatar transit line on account of the damage to russian dominance of energy supplies it would cause as is the same with Ukraine along with another few reasons.These wars are all about business interests however maybe that is one of the most clever pretexts presented by powers who operate on both sides of the table to bring about something that is not even remotely presented and this pretext is the most logical for the sheople. All the talk about territorial integrity is laughable and can only be easily digested by half wits. Anyone with a few working brain cells knows russia or ruzzia could lay waste to ukraine in a couple of days if it needed to even if it wasn't wished for and the powers that be even as fractured as they are will continue to bring about whatever it is they have planned for everyone on a global scale. There are serious games at play here that we have absolutely no idea of the outcome but these current wars are not even the spark on that fuse. They are simply a way of organising things in the future by the old feudal ways with good old common people as cannon fodder ...much like a lethal game of chess but only lethal for the players thrown onto the board.

[BADecker]

^^^ There are a lot of people who understand this. It's just too bad that the big blabber mouthed people are also the ones who want to take control of the world. Here is what many little people understand, even though they are often being tricked by the blabber-mouth people to not realize it.


Convergence Calling


https://www.activistpost.com/convergence-calling/
"The current conflict between Europe and America is not reducible towards contrasting approaches towards Russia's invasion of Ukraine." —Frank Furedi on Substack

You're going to see what a truly consequential span of weeks, looks like, as Western Civ goes into full churn on April's doorstep. Remember, TS Eliot called it the "cruelest month." Too many uncomfortable things are converging, too many ongoing operations are unwinding, too many tensions are breaking.

The conclusion of "Joe Biden's" Ukraine War fiasco looms. You can tell because The New York Times published a gigantic piece Sunday detailing how the Pentagon and the CIA actually ran all of Ukraine's tactical operations out of a base in Wiesbaden, Germany — after building a colossal Ukraine war machine post our 2014 color revolution in Kiev. Since the very start of the hot war in 2022, we did all the targeting for the weapons we gave them and planned their every move. What a surprise! (Not.)
...

[DaRude]

The bigger the picture the better the argument?

That's where we partially agree. The fact is that there is no reason whatsoever to allow another country to change Ukrainian government at a whim. I'm sure everyone would agree that a third highest diplomat from a country on another continent, bringing cookies and supporting coup d'etat against dully elected democratic government is direct meddling by everyone's definition. As we're all well aware, it has been done all over the world, but Ukraine was a red line for Russia, which US decided to ignore. Putin is irrelevant here, we see that Russian elites, generals, and society in general are willing to spill their blood over Ukraine because it is an existential threat for Russia. Thinking that the same applies to Poland (that NATO in Poland is an existential threat to Russia) is just a scary propaganda Ukraine pushes to drum up support for itself, since it became clear that continuing to take Ukraine with force is just no longer of interest for the west.

[...]
Nuland is also heard weighing in on the make-up of the next Ukrainian government.
She is heard telling Ambassador Pyatt that she doesn’t think Vitaly Klitschko, the boxer-turned-politician who is a main opposition leader, should have a role in a new government.

“So I don’t think Klitsch (Klitschko) should go into the government,” she said. “I don’t think it’s necessary. I don’t think it’s a good idea.”

She also comments on possible future roles for the two other main protest leaders, Ukraine's former economy minister Arseny Yatseniuk and Oleh Tyahnybok, the far-right nationalist opposition leader.

“I think [Yatseniuk] is the guy who’s got the economic experience, the governing experience. What he needs is [Klitschko] and [Tyahnybok] on the outside. He needs to be talking to them four times a week,” Nuland said in the recording.
[/b][/url]

but i'm sure you'll find a way to justify this with American exceptionalism and how that's somehow totally acceptable

You're once again (at this point I'm assuming intentionally) confusing the cause and effect. Dropping oil prices is the effect of the world going into recession, we already see that USA stopped allocating money to Ukraine and now ask yourself what will happen to European aid to Ukraine once Europe itself enters into a recession. But keep on drumming up support to encourage more Ukrainian young to go to the front lines, knowing the futility of this and that outcome has already been decided

Oh again your fixation... Well let's then talk about what is acceptable...

- On one side you are ok with the imperial vision of Ruzzia as dominant power with full right to impose conditions around and have an area of influence. You are absolutely ok with Ruzzia trying to change a government, not even by soft power, but by direct anhilation.

- while at the same time you complain because someone else think of themselves exactly in the same terms and does the same things (in you view anyway).

Basically, you are complaning of another taur being better a cheating = at a cheater's poker table - than you.You cannot be taken seriously.

Either you accept an imperialistic view, in which case Ruzzia is clearly loosing the case or you are in favour of allowing people to vote, in which case... you are also loosing it.

BTW again and again and again...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation

n February and March 2014, Russia invaded the Crimean Peninsula, part of Ukraine, and then annexed it. This took place in the relative power vacuum[34] immediately following the Revolution of Dignity. It marked the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian War.

Anyone can see why Ukraine was seeking allies, not the other way around.

Again and again... Putin does not need a reason to think he owns half the world...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War

The August 2008 Russo-Georgian War, also known as the Russian invasion of Georgia,[note 3] was a war waged against Georgia by the Russian Federation and the Russian-backed separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The fighting took place in the strategically important South Caucasus region. It is regarded as the first European war of the 21st century.[31]

You once again are missing a crucial part of my argument. USA set a precedent that loosing influence over a country on it's (almost) border, is considered an existential threat. That's why Russia will extend all it's resources for Ukraine, and just guess what is the prime target for China's growing military.

We had a relative stability in the last 50years because there was an understanding not to encroach on another nuclear power bordering countries, breaking that rule is the fastest way to a war. No one doubts for a second what US navy would do if China decided to enter Cuba.

You must either support for Russians to have their bases/nuclear weapons in Cuba (we know how that turned out), or for US to get out of Ukraine, but you just can't have it both ways without a war. It really is that simple.

And why did Russia took Crimea, what preceded that? Could it be that someone showed up with cookies in Ukraine and supported a coup d'etat against dully elected democratic government? You keep conveniently leaving out the root cause of this all.

[Branko]

Americans finally admit it was CIA and UK secret services that were commanding and planning,
and Ukrainians were just cannon fodder:

https://www.advance.hr/tekst/velika-otkrica-nyt-a-tajna-povijest-rata-u-ukrajini-koji-mozda-ipak-nije-poceo-invazijom-kako-su-sad-i-nato-sukob-planirali-godinama-i-hoce-li-se-grandiozni-projekt-rusenja-rusije-na-kraju-sam-urusiti-zajedno-s-erom-globalne-hegemonije/

(use Google translate if you're not Croat )

[paxmao]

You once again are missing a crucial part of my argument. USA set a precedent that loosing influence over a country on it's (almost) border, is considered an existential threat. That's why Russia will extend all it's resources for Ukraine, and just guess what is the prime target for China's growing military.

We had a relative stability in the last 50years because there was an understanding not to encroach on another nuclear power bordering countries, breaking that rule is the fastest way to a war. No one doubts for a second what US navy would do if China decided to enter Cuba.

You must either support for Russians to have their bases/nuclear weapons in Cuba (we know how that turned out), or for US to get out of Ukraine, but you just can't have it both ways without a war. It really is that simple.

And why did Russia took Crimea, what preceded that? Could it be that someone showed up with cookies in Ukraine and supported a coup d'etat against dully elected democratic government? You keep conveniently leaving out the root cause of this all.

Oh, I see... your point is that, according to you, "US did it first" and also Ruzzia is justified because they are a nuclear power and Ukraine must therefore be under their influence to ensure peace. It would have been easier without so many (repetitive) pictures and noise.

So you are accusing the US of creating security issues by allowing Ukraine to fall out of the Ruzzian "sphere".

My first comment is that Ukrainians should have a say. I know you do not believe that people can choose and they have to accept whatever Moscow decides, but that is actually the type of thinking that leads to wars over and over in Europe - Empires and spheres instead of democracy and public accountability. This has been historically proven over and over.

But if you decide that this about empires then security is not a priority. Empires do not care about it, they care about expanding, getting more "subjects" and resources... but historically they have been fine with war. There is not a rule that says you need to allow other to develop and maintain their empire - there will be soft-power and even proxy wars under that mentality. Empires do not last forever.

And I hear you say: But Ruzzia has nukes and that is what makes it a dominant power able to impose their will and determine how their "border estates" (thanks for recognising Ukraine BTW). That is not true. The nature of nuclear weapons does not make them generally usable in an offensive conflict, so it makes Ruzzia safer from an substantive invasion of its territory or from major interferences, but it does not work to invade others - not too well anyway. Also, other countries may be tempted to acquire nuclear capabilities (Poland) or, more likely, to increase existing like France or the UK.

Then there is the Ruzzian army, which is another imperial weapon of choice. But it is not doing well, in fact it is being quite close to being ridiculed by a much smaller country.

I guess it is hard for a proud ex-empire, led by an old KGB guy and an oversized army that Ruzzia may no longer be what it used to - although it would have been better to understand it and avoid millions of deaths on both sides.

Funny you speak about Cuba, I mean, kind of a USSR land-based aircraft carrier during decades. And I guess even more funny since the US tried to invade and failed - like Ruzzia in Ukraine maybe.

[Branko]

Oh, I see... your point is that, according to you, "US did it first" and also Ruzzia is justified because they are a nuclear power and Ukraine must therefore be under their influence to ensure peace. It would have been easier without so many (repetitive) pictures and noise.

So you are accusing the US of creating security issues by allowing Ukraine to fall out of the Ruzzian "sphere".

My first comment is that Ukrainians should have a say. I know you do not believe that people can choose and they have to accept whatever Moscow decides, but that is actually the type of thinking that leads to wars over and over in Europe - Empires and spheres instead of democracy and public accountability. This has been historically proven over and over.

But if you decide that this about empires then security is not a priority. Empires do not care about it, they care about expanding, getting more "subjects" and resources... but historically they have been fine with war. There is not a rule that says you need to allow other to develop and maintain their empire - there will be soft-power and even proxy wars under that mentality. Empires do not last forever.

And I hear you say: But Ruzzia has nukes and that is what makes it a dominant power able to impose their will and determine how their "border estates" (thanks for recognising Ukraine BTW). That is not true. The nature of nuclear weapons does not make them generally usable in an offensive conflict, so it makes Ruzzia safer from an substantive invasion of its territory or from major interferences, but it does not work to invade others - not too well anyway. Also, other countries may be tempted to acquire nuclear capabilities (Poland) or, more likely, to increase existing like France or the UK.

Then there is the Ruzzian army, which is another imperial weapon of choice. But it is not doing well, in fact it is being quite close to being ridiculed by a much smaller country.

I guess it is hard for a proud ex-empire, led by an old KGB guy and an oversized army that Ruzzia may no longer be what it used to - although it would have been better to understand it and avoid millions of deaths on both sides.

Funny you speak about Cuba, I mean, kind of a USSR land-based aircraft carrier during decades. And I guess even more funny since the US tried to invade and failed - like Ruzzia in Ukraine maybe.

Historically proven is that whenever Russia tried to cooperate with rest of Europe, rooineks decided to intervene and ruin that (proven by my previous post where NYT
proved that UK and USA prepared Ukraine for war even before Russia invaded...like 10 years before):

[DaRude]

The bigger the picture the better the argument?

That's where we partially agree. The fact is that there is no reason whatsoever to allow another country to change Ukrainian government at a whim. I'm sure everyone would agree that a third highest diplomat from a country on another continent, bringing cookies and supporting coup d'etat against dully elected democratic government is direct meddling by everyone's definition. As we're all well aware, it has been done all over the world, but Ukraine was a red line for Russia, which US decided to ignore. Putin is irrelevant here, we see that Russian elites, generals, and society in general are willing to spill their blood over Ukraine because it is an existential threat for Russia. Thinking that the same applies to Poland (that NATO in Poland is an existential threat to Russia) is just a scary propaganda Ukraine pushes to drum up support for itself, since it became clear that continuing to take Ukraine with force is just no longer of interest for the west.

[...]
Nuland is also heard weighing in on the make-up of the next Ukrainian government.
She is heard telling Ambassador Pyatt that she doesn’t think Vitaly Klitschko, the boxer-turned-politician who is a main opposition leader, should have a role in a new government.

“So I don’t think Klitsch (Klitschko) should go into the government,” she said. “I don’t think it’s necessary. I don’t think it’s a good idea.”

She also comments on possible future roles for the two other main protest leaders, Ukraine's former economy minister Arseny Yatseniuk and Oleh Tyahnybok, the far-right nationalist opposition leader.

“I think [Yatseniuk] is the guy who’s got the economic experience, the governing experience. What he needs is [Klitschko] and [Tyahnybok] on the outside. He needs to be talking to them four times a week,” Nuland said in the recording.
[/b][/url]

but i'm sure you'll find a way to justify this with American exceptionalism and how that's somehow totally acceptable

You're once again (at this point I'm assuming intentionally) confusing the cause and effect. Dropping oil prices is the effect of the world going into recession, we already see that USA stopped allocating money to Ukraine and now ask yourself what will happen to European aid to Ukraine once Europe itself enters into a recession. But keep on drumming up support to encourage more Ukrainian young to go to the front lines, knowing the futility of this and that outcome has already been decided

Oh again your fixation... Well let's then talk about what is acceptable...

- On one side you are ok with the imperial vision of Ruzzia as dominant power with full right to impose conditions around and have an area of influence. You are absolutely ok with Ruzzia trying to change a government, not even by soft power, but by direct anhilation.

- while at the same time you complain because someone else think of themselves exactly in the same terms and does the same things (in you view anyway).

Basically, you are complaning of another taur being better a cheating = at a cheater's poker table - than you.You cannot be taken seriously.

Either you accept an imperialistic view, in which case Ruzzia is clearly loosing the case or you are in favour of allowing people to vote, in which case... you are also loosing it.

BTW again and again and again...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation

n February and March 2014, Russia invaded the Crimean Peninsula, part of Ukraine, and then annexed it. This took place in the relative power vacuum[34] immediately following the Revolution of Dignity. It marked the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian War.

Anyone can see why Ukraine was seeking allies, not the other way around.

Again and again... Putin does not need a reason to think he owns half the world...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War

The August 2008 Russo-Georgian War, also known as the Russian invasion of Georgia,[note 3] was a war waged against Georgia by the Russian Federation and the Russian-backed separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The fighting took place in the strategically important South Caucasus region. It is regarded as the first European war of the 21st century.[31]

You once again are missing a crucial part of my argument. USA set a precedent that loosing influence over a country on it's (almost) border, is considered an existential threat. That's why Russia will extend all it's resources for Ukraine, and just guess what is the prime target for China's growing military.

We had a relative stability in the last 50years because there was an understanding not to encroach on another nuclear power bordering countries, breaking that rule is the fastest way to a war. No one doubts for a second what US navy would do if China decided to enter Cuba.

You must either support for Russians to have their bases/nuclear weapons in Cuba (we know how that turned out), or for US to get out of Ukraine, but you just can't have it both ways without a war. It really is that simple.

And why did Russia took Crimea, what preceded that? Could it be that someone showed up with cookies in Ukraine and supported a coup d'etat against dully elected democratic government? You keep conveniently leaving out the root cause of this all.

Oh, I see... your point is that, according to you, "US did it first" and also Ruzzia is justified because they are a nuclear power and Ukraine must therefore be under their influence to ensure peace. It would have been easier without so many (repetitive) pictures and noise.

So you are accusing the US of creating security issues by allowing Ukraine to fall out of the Ruzzian "sphere".

My first comment is that Ukrainians should have a say. I know you do not believe that people can choose and they have to accept whatever Moscow decides, but that is actually the type of thinking that leads to wars over and over in Europe - Empires and spheres instead of democracy and public accountability. This has been historically proven over and over.

But if you decide that this about empires then security is not a priority. Empires do not care about it, they care about expanding, getting more "subjects" and resources... but historically they have been fine with war. There is not a rule that says you need to allow other to develop and maintain their empire - there will be soft-power and even proxy wars under that mentality. Empires do not last forever.

And I hear you say: But Ruzzia has nukes and that is what makes it a dominant power able to impose their will and determine how their "border estates" (thanks for recognising Ukraine BTW). That is not true. The nature of nuclear weapons does not make them generally usable in an offensive conflict, so it makes Ruzzia safer from an substantive invasion of its territory or from major interferences, but it does not work to invade others - not too well anyway. Also, other countries may be tempted to acquire nuclear capabilities (Poland) or, more likely, to increase existing like France or the UK.

Then there is the Ruzzian army, which is another imperial weapon of choice. But it is not doing well, in fact it is being quite close to being ridiculed by a much smaller country.

I guess it is hard for a proud ex-empire, led by an old KGB guy and an oversized army that Ruzzia may no longer be what it used to - although it would have been better to understand it and avoid millions of deaths on both sides.

Funny you speak about Cuba, I mean, kind of a USSR land-based aircraft carrier during decades. And I guess even more funny since the US tried to invade and failed - like Ruzzia in Ukraine maybe.

Third highest US diplomat with US ambassador giving out cookies, openly supporting coup d'etat, saying Fuck the EU, and then transferring as many javelins in as they possibly can is 'allowing Ukraine to fall out of the Ruzzian "sphere".' riight we all believe  

If Cuba doesn't have a say, i don't see why Ukraine should. Double standards much?

Empires using proxies, and soft power over "buffer states" is unavoidable, but going after a bordering country (for a kill) is a recipe for war. But keep playing dumb and pretending to not understand this basic concept.

Yes yes we all see how great Ukrainian army with billions in aid, NATO weapons, and full US/NATO intelligence is doing on the map against Russian paper tiger fighting with just shovels and on golf carts.

There was an option to avoid this all, which multiple sources including from UN confirmed, but Boris Johnson decided that Ukraine needs to be sacrificed to attempt to undermine Russia and Ukrainian government willingly decided to volunteer their own people for it. To the point where now Zelenskiy can't stop because he knows that once the guns stop he'd have to answer why he didn't sign the agreement and what was the point of this all. Let's see how "sure we lost our people, our lands, our nation, and mineral rights on all of the remaining land but at least we protected Poland" said from the exile in France, will sit with the Ukrainian people.

US managed to keep Russia out of Cuba, and Russia seems to be on track to keep west out of Ukraine, next China will attempt to get US out of Taiwan. Encroachments on another superpower bordering country is an existential threat for that country and a set up for a war, it's not rocket science

Edit:

The latest draft would give the U.S. privileged access to Ukraine's mineral deposits and require Kyiv to place in a joint investment fund all income from the exploitation of natural resources by Ukrainian state and private firms.
The proposed deal, however, would not provide U.S. security guarantees to Kyiv - a top priority of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy - for its fight against Russian forces occupying some 20% of its territory.
The source said that one of the "Easter eggs" found in the document was a U.S. demand that the U.S. government's International Development Finance Corporation take control of a natural gas pipeline from Russian energy giant Gazprom across Ukraine to Europe.

So on top of everything else, nationalization and now Ukraine will loose the benefit of being a transfer state and collecting revenue on transit of gas from Russia. Is there anything else of value left in Ukraine that can be taken? I'm sure Ukrainians must be ecstatic to continue to die for such prospects. You need to continue to encourage them to fight and just not think what exactly is it that they're fighting for

[BADecker]

Over the last 2 or 3 weeks there have been limited peace agreements where both countries, Russia and Ukraine, have limited their fighting in some areas. The thing that this did was it gave both countries a breather to strengthen their armaments.

Ukraine, specifically, has decided to continue fighting. Russia will continue fighting because of Ukraine's determination. Looks like the war might be going on for a while, yet... at least in 'words'.

Both countries are being helped by other countries. Both are using fiat currencies one way or another for purchasing help. Possibly the only way to stop the war is if fiat collapses.

[Reynaldo]

Seriously, this thread is a good reminder that while we argue about charts and tokens, real world events keep happening that impact markets. Those early predictions hit different now that we know how it all played out. IYKYK.