2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets!

[Haunebu]

Whenever you hear someone say "all politicians lie", you can bet that they are helping the politicians that are the biggest liars by implying they should be put in the same group as the most honest politicians.  And most of the time it's Trump they are trying to defend.

There is no such thing as an honest politician these days to be frank. I want Harris to win over Trump, but I do not believe for a second that she is an honest politician at all. She is simply a better choice when compared to Biden and Trump.

However, all of these options suck. Even Obama seems like a proper option when compared to these three in my opinion.

[TwitchySeal]

Whenever you hear someone say "all politicians lie", you can bet that they are helping the politicians that are the biggest liars by implying they should be put in the same group as the most honest politicians.  And most of the time it's Trump they are trying to defend.

There is no such thing as an honest politician these days to be frank. I want Harris to win over Trump, but I do not believe for a second that she is an honest politician at all. She is simply a better choice when compared to Biden and Trump.

However, all of these options suck. Even Obama seems like a proper option when compared to these three in my opinion.

You're implying that they are all equally dishonest.

This is probably the number one argument used to by people that try to rationalize supporting Trump to themselves.

Trump lies about anything and everything, pretty much every single time he speaks.

Election fraud, immigrants eating cats and dogs, the size of his inauguration crowd, what 3 star generals said to him while he was president, what the judge said in his criminal trial, laws he claims he signed but didnt, the Trump moscow project, his taxes, which states are in the path of a hurricane, the porn star he had an affair with, all the classified dox the FBI found in his beach club when he wasn't president, how tall he is...when the guy tells the truth it's just a coincidence.

So when you say "all politicians are liars", you're saying what so many of Trump supporters say everyday, like it doesn't matter how many times Trump lies, or what kinds of things he's lying about, as long as every other politician has told 1 or more lies, then that means they are all liars and that cancels out all of Trumps lies.

[bitgolden]

I am noticing an interesting pattern here. The so called battleground states Trump has inched ever so slightly closer to receiving the majority of votes in polls, except Michigan. But he has started doing slightly better in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona. That's quite interesting because from what I've noticed the policies trump promotes haven't changed at all...

There must be some intense local campaigning by the republicans there to try and sway the vote of the locals is what I presume.

There are some fundamental reasons for that, and not really that complicated ones. Arizona was a republican place for example, but a lot of democrats moved in there, so that made it very swing state, and Georgia was a swing state but a democrat politician took over and did amazing for just a while, and that made democrats there be more willing to vote, they weren't actually heavy republican, they just didn't go out to vote and that's why democrats lost, but recently they learned if they all go out to vote, they could win it, and the knowledge of that makes it close.

North Carolina should be republican, trump should win that one, I do not think it's that close. So there are stories of each state, you go check their history and you will see that there are like maybe 3 states all together that flips all the time, rest have a steady way it goes. Usually even if a state flips, then it could be because other party steadily grew over time and that's why it happened.

Even Texas is purple these days, while we all know Trump will of course win Texas, the gap is getting closer, so in a few elections, like maybe in 10-15 years, we may see a democrat Texas all thanks to urban areas as well, which will be a first and definitely shocking to everyone.

[nullama]

Whenever you hear someone say "all politicians lie", you can bet that they are helping the politicians that are the biggest liars by implying they should be put in the same group as the most honest politicians.  And most of the time it's Trump they are trying to defend.

There is no such thing as an honest politician these days to be frank. I want Harris to win over Trump, but I do not believe for a second that she is an honest politician at all. She is simply a better choice when compared to Biden and Trump.

However, all of these options suck. Even Obama seems like a proper option when compared to these three in my opinion.

Yeah, it does feel like there is no real options.

At the end of the day it is just an illusion and the people who actually own the country gets to do whatever they want.

It has been like this for a while

[TwitchySeal]

Whenever you hear someone say "all politicians lie", you can bet that they are helping the politicians that are the biggest liars by implying they should be put in the same group as the most honest politicians.  And most of the time it's Trump they are trying to defend.

There is no such thing as an honest politician these days to be frank. I want Harris to win over Trump, but I do not believe for a second that she is an honest politician at all. She is simply a better choice when compared to Biden and Trump.

However, all of these options suck. Even Obama seems like a proper option when compared to these three in my opinion.

Yeah, it does feel like there is no real options.

At the end of the day it is just an illusion and the people who actually own the country gets to do whatever they want.

It has been like this for a while

Well you have the option between:

- a candidate who is a convicted felon after cheating in the only election he won and is facing dozens of more felony charges, including defrauding the country, and has a history of personally profiting from the precedency

and

- Kamala Harris


This is not an illusion or a difficult decision, which is why so many Republicans and former Trump cabinet members are now campaigning for Kamala.

[alani123]

The next major event in the race is going to be the Vice presidential debate which takes place on October 1st. It will certainly be an interesting watch and funnily enough as age has come to play a role in this election maybe Vance will try to use this to his advantage. Not to say that Walz is not witty or anything but it'll be an interesting thing to see what actual arguments are brought up.

Honestly Trump was kinda unimpressive and I am sure republicans are expecting Vance to do much better so as they don't completely fumble their chances. On the other hand I am considering, how much worse could their performance be? Already after Trump lost the debate it's clear the polls didn't show a huge didn't on his percentages, but rather a small one.

[nullama]

The next major event in the race is going to be the Vice presidential debate which takes place on October 1st. It will certainly be an interesting watch and funnily enough as age has come to play a role in this election maybe Vance will try to use this to his advantage. Not to say that Walz is not witty or anything but it'll be an interesting thing to see what actual arguments are brought up.

Honestly Trump was kinda unimpressive and I am sure republicans are expecting Vance to do much better so as they don't completely fumble their chances. On the other hand I am considering, how much worse could their performance be? Already after Trump lost the debate it's clear the polls didn't show a huge didn't on his percentages, but rather a small one.

The vice presidential debate is interesting, for sure, but it is nowhere near as important as the previous debate.

I think there will be many other things as well happening that we are still not even aware of.

A couple of months is a huge amount of time for politicians.

[fuguebtc]

The next major event in the race is going to be the Vice presidential debate which takes place on October 1st. It will certainly be an interesting watch and funnily enough as age has come to play a role in this election maybe Vance will try to use this to his advantage. Not to say that Walz is not witty or anything but it'll be an interesting thing to see what actual arguments are brought up.

Honestly Trump was kinda unimpressive and I am sure republicans are expecting Vance to do much better so as they don't completely fumble their chances. On the other hand I am considering, how much worse could their performance be? Already after Trump lost the debate it's clear the polls didn't show a huge didn't on his percentages, but rather a small one.

The vice presidential debate is interesting, for sure, but it is nowhere near as important as the previous debate.

I think there will be many other things as well happening that we are still not even aware of.

A couple of months is a huge amount of time for politicians.

Honestly, I don't think many people care about the vice presidential debate , everything will focus on the two presidential candidates because if they don't win, there will be no vice president after that .

The outcome of the debate is not very meaningful, which may be a plus but does not guarantee the final outcome of the election . Furthermore, opinion polls are a means of manipulation by parties because they are based on the popular vote while election results depend entirely on the electoral votes. Polls are intended solely for crowd manipulation and as a means for casinos to attract bets, nothing more and nothing less 

[Hispo]

The next major event in the race is going to be the Vice presidential debate which takes place on October 1st. It will certainly be an interesting watch and funnily enough as age has come to play a role in this election maybe Vance will try to use this to his advantage. Not to say that Walz is not witty or anything but it'll be an interesting thing to see what actual arguments are brought up.

Honestly Trump was kinda unimpressive and I am sure republicans are expecting Vance to do much better so as they don't completely fumble their chances. On the other hand I am considering, how much worse could their performance be? Already after Trump lost the debate it's clear the polls didn't show a huge didn't on his percentages, but rather a small one.

Vance is definitely going to try to take advantage of his age against Walz, because that is the only thing he has in his favor. Unlike Walz, to me it seems Vance is almost completely unappealing when comes to personally and when he has tried to relate to voters, visiting them at their jobs and try to create sympathy for himself, has most of the times failed and backfired in a quite substantial way against him and Trump. Actually, I have this personal theory Trump is already regretting his choose for running mate, he could have taken much more advantage of the hard core of the Maga base had he chosen to run together with Tucker Carlson, for example. The wackiest option would have been Alex Jones, but may be Trump understood he still needs some moderate voters to win key states.

[bitgolden]

Betting on trump makes it easier again. The battleground states are way too close, and the reality is that there is about 229 EC votes Kamala will get without a doubt, it's almost guaranteed, I can't see that changing unless there is a shocking unexpected turn of events, and Trump will get at least 216, that is hardcore and destined.

The middle is where things go, some of them are a bit more closer to one side, like 3-4 points, some are very close and flips each poll, and we can say that it is going to be quite tough.

New York and California and similar democrat places losing EC vote, and Texas type of red places gaining makes it very difficult for Kamala, but I think it's going to be very very close. I am suspecting it is going to be either one state or two states that will be the deciding factor. This should mean that betting on this is very hard, we are going to definitely face a lot of tough decisions on this but while Trump could still lose, betting on him looks quite profitable for now.

Normally odds should be looking very close, even look like it's equals, but Trump has worse odds, meaning odds show that he should be losing, for something this close, I think it's clear to vote for trump for now.

[Smack That Ace]

Whenever you hear someone say "all politicians lie", you can bet that they are helping the politicians that are the biggest liars by implying they should be put in the same group as the most honest politicians.  And most of the time it's Trump they are trying to defend.

There is no such thing as an honest politician these days to be frank. I want Harris to win over Trump, but I do not believe for a second that she is an honest politician at all. She is simply a better choice when compared to Biden and Trump.

However, all of these options suck. Even Obama seems like a proper option when compared to these three in my opinion.

You're implying that they are all equally dishonest.

This is probably the number one argument used to by people that try to rationalize supporting Trump to themselves.

Trump lies about anything and everything, pretty much every single time he speaks.

Election fraud, immigrants eating cats and dogs, the size of his inauguration crowd, what 3 star generals said to him while he was president, what the judge said in his criminal trial, laws he claims he signed but didnt, the Trump moscow project, his taxes, which states are in the path of a hurricane, the porn star he had an affair with, all the classified dox the FBI found in his beach club when he wasn't president, how tall he is...when the guy tells the truth it's just a coincidence.

So when you say "all politicians are liars", you're saying what so many of Trump supporters say everyday, like it doesn't matter how many times Trump lies, or what kinds of things he's lying about, as long as every other politician has told 1 or more lies, then that means they are all liars and that cancels out all of Trumps lies.

That's the nature of politics, not just in the United States, politics in every other country is like that. Lying, cheating, cruelty...they have almost become political culture all over the world. You can try asking non-Americans, is there anyone who would praise and be proud of their country's politicians? I believe they all have the same answer.


As for voting and supporting any candidate, it means that we are also looking for benefits for ourselves, we are looking to exchange benefits with them. Would you vote for a candidate whose policies you believe would harm you and your business? We all and politicians are the same, all only care about our own interests, no one is good here.

[TwitchySeal]

Whenever you hear someone say "all politicians lie", you can bet that they are helping the politicians that are the biggest liars by implying they should be put in the same group as the most honest politicians.  And most of the time it's Trump they are trying to defend.

There is no such thing as an honest politician these days to be frank. I want Harris to win over Trump, but I do not believe for a second that she is an honest politician at all. She is simply a better choice when compared to Biden and Trump.

However, all of these options suck. Even Obama seems like a proper option when compared to these three in my opinion.

You're implying that they are all equally dishonest.

This is probably the number one argument used to by people that try to rationalize supporting Trump to themselves.

Trump lies about anything and everything, pretty much every single time he speaks.

Election fraud, immigrants eating cats and dogs, the size of his inauguration crowd, what 3 star generals said to him while he was president, what the judge said in his criminal trial, laws he claims he signed but didnt, the Trump moscow project, his taxes, which states are in the path of a hurricane, the porn star he had an affair with, all the classified dox the FBI found in his beach club when he wasn't president, how tall he is...when the guy tells the truth it's just a coincidence.

So when you say "all politicians are liars", you're saying what so many of Trump supporters say everyday, like it doesn't matter how many times Trump lies, or what kinds of things he's lying about, as long as every other politician has told 1 or more lies, then that means they are all liars and that cancels out all of Trumps lies.

That's the nature of politics, not just in the United States, politics in every other country is like that. Lying, cheating, cruelty...they have almost become political culture all over the world. You can try asking non-Americans, is there anyone who would praise and be proud of their country's politicians? I believe they all have the same answer.


As for voting and supporting any candidate, it means that we are also looking for benefits for ourselves, we are looking to exchange benefits with them. Would you vote for a candidate whose policies you believe would harm you and your business? We all and politicians are the same, all only care about our own interests, no one is good here.

Yes.  If the candidate you support lies every single time he speaks, has been a known scammer for decades, etc...etc.... then "all politicians are liars" (which really means, "don't count all that lying/cheating/scamming/crime against Trump, every other politician has done or said at least one thing misleading or dishonest, so just consider all politicians, including Trump, equally dishonest")...I guess that's the nature of politics. 

But you're basically becoming as dishonest as the politician by repeating the irrational dishonest argument. 

[Sithara007]

According to the RealClearPolling no-Tossup map, Pennsylvania has once again swung to Donald Trump, after Kamala was ahead for almost two weeks. Trump now holds a razor-thin lead of 0.2% in this state in aggregate of polls. And this means that Trump/Vance is now ahead in electoral college by a margin of 281 vs 257. We have just around 5-6 weeks to go for the elections and if the opinion polls are correct this time (they were horribly wrong in both 2016 and 2020), then the winner of the election may not be announced immediately due to several close contests.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

[wozzek23]

Fundamentally, inflation and printing money  are popular things to complain about, but they are a vital part of any healthy economy.  Without it there would be very little growth - something that China is actually dealing with right now.  I

And as for politicians lying, not all politicians are liars - and no other politition running for president has ever lied as often or had their lies do more damage than Trump.  And it's not even close.

Inflation could be important to exist, but not this much, when you have high inflation, that is something that you can't deal with, it's too much and price of everything goes up. Another point to discuss is that you can have things going up 100% higher, and government telling you inflation is only 10% or less, how could people trust the government after that, they won't believe the government, not that they did before, but not believe after that neither.

That is important because things you buy goes up 100% higher, and because government shows inflation 10%, the salary goes up 10% so you make 10% more but pay 100% more and that makes you even poorer, that is why people hate the government lying about inflation.

Printing money part is true, you need to do that, but USA printed more money in the last ten years than the previous 250+ years, that is not normal. I am not against printing money, but I am against printing that much money, that's too much. For what? To give PPP to congressman and their loved ones and the companies that bribe them, not just for people, not even half goes to people, rest all goes to these rich folks anyway. That is why economy was an issue under both Trump and Biden and didn't help the normal people.

[ChiBitCTy]

Whenever you hear someone say "all politicians lie", you can bet that they are helping the politicians that are the biggest liars by implying they should be put in the same group as the most honest politicians.  And most of the time it's Trump they are trying to defend.

There is no such thing as an honest politician these days to be frank. I want Harris to win over Trump, but I do not believe for a second that she is an honest politician at all. She is simply a better choice when compared to Biden and Trump.

However, all of these options suck. Even Obama seems like a proper option when compared to these three in my opinion.

There really is no such thing.  The only two politicians of any time recently that I felt actually gave a shit about the people is both Benrie Sanders and AOC.  Now many dislike the two, and I myself don't necessarily love their politics, as they both are a bit too far left for my liking, but they seem to truly care.  I don't get this same feeling from Kamala.  I think Kamala just and Donald is, are both corrupt. 

That's what makes betting in this so difficult.  You don't know which one is being more honest than that other.  I'm still not sure who I'm betting on.

[alani123]

According to the RealClearPolling no-Tossup map, Pennsylvania has once again swung to Donald Trump, after Kamala was ahead for almost two weeks. Trump now holds a razor-thin lead of 0.2% in this state in aggregate of polls. And this means that Trump/Vance is now ahead in electoral college by a margin of 281 vs 257. We have just around 5-6 weeks to go for the elections and if the opinion polls are correct this time (they were horribly wrong in both 2016 and 2020), then the winner of the election may not be announced immediately due to several close contests.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

0.2 is in no way clear enough to consider a state a non-swing state so Trump shouldn't rest easy at night over winning Pennsylvania. Now he did a whole new fuckup with Florida. Instead of ordering Republican senators to fast track aid to Florida after it was major affected by the recent hurricane, almost all republican congressmen voted against the aid bills... Meanwhile Trump was saying Biden wasn't sending help and the Florida REPUBLICAN governor came out to say he was lying essentially.

Surely this isn't going to sit well with Georgians, which is neighboring by Florida is a battleground state and was also the recipient of a lot of damage from hurricane Helene. If Georgia goes to Kamala things are gonna be tough for Trump for sure. So hopefully he stops the fuckups and shows some humanity this time otherwise he'll keep getting humbled.

[blockman]

According to the RealClearPolling no-Tossup map, Pennsylvania has once again swung to Donald Trump, after Kamala was ahead for almost two weeks. Trump now holds a razor-thin lead of 0.2% in this state in aggregate of polls. And this means that Trump/Vance is now ahead in electoral college by a margin of 281 vs 257. We have just around 5-6 weeks to go for the elections and if the opinion polls are correct this time (they were horribly wrong in both 2016 and 2020), then the winner of the election may not be announced immediately due to several close contests.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

I have a question, that this means that Pennsylvania has already won by Trump and opinion polls like this usually are the same during the election day? How accurate usually these opinion polls are? Pardon me as I am starting to follow this.

[Hispo]

According to the RealClearPolling no-Tossup map, Pennsylvania has once again swung to Donald Trump, after Kamala was ahead for almost two weeks. Trump now holds a razor-thin lead of 0.2% in this state in aggregate of polls. And this means that Trump/Vance is now ahead in electoral college by a margin of 281 vs 257. We have just around 5-6 weeks to go for the elections and if the opinion polls are correct this time (they were horribly wrong in both 2016 and 2020), then the winner of the election may not be announced immediately due to several close contests.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

I have a question, that this means that Pennsylvania has already won by Trump and opinion polls like this usually are the same during the election day? How accurate usually these opinion polls are? Pardon me as I am starting to follow this.

Polls do not equal the political reality of the United States whatsoever. That is something one needs to understand from the first move one does when getting into geopolitics also the inner politics of the United States. Those polls are made with a sample of the population, which means the poll could be biased or inaccurate, depending on the team behind them.
Look for example what happened during the midterm elections of 2022, according to polls the Republican party was supposed to gain advantage over the Democrat party both in the Senate and in the House of Representatives, it did not happen.

So if you are new at betting and American politics, I would recommend you to be skeptical of pols and see a little bit more how betting markets react to the actions of both candidates.

[TwitchySeal]

According to the RealClearPolling no-Tossup map, Pennsylvania has once again swung to Donald Trump, after Kamala was ahead for almost two weeks. Trump now holds a razor-thin lead of 0.2% in this state in aggregate of polls. And this means that Trump/Vance is now ahead in electoral college by a margin of 281 vs 257. We have just around 5-6 weeks to go for the elections and if the opinion polls are correct this time (they were horribly wrong in both 2016 and 2020), then the winner of the election may not be announced immediately due to several close contests.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

I have a question, that this means that Pennsylvania has already won by Trump and opinion polls like this usually are the same during the election day? How accurate usually these opinion polls are? Pardon me as I am starting to follow this.

Polls do not equal the political reality of the United States whatsoever. That is something one needs to understand from the first move one does when getting into geopolitics also the inner politics of the United States. Those polls are made with a sample of the population, which means the poll could be biased or inaccurate, depending on the team behind them.
Look for example what happened during the midterm elections of 2022, according to polls the Republican party was supposed to gain advantage over the Democrat party both in the Senate and in the House of Representatives, it did not happen.

So if you are new at betting and American politics, I would recommend you to be skeptical of pols and see a little bit more how betting markets react to the actions of both candidates.

There's always the possibility of some sort of bias being introduced, like for example in 2016 when Trump supporters were far less likely to respond to polls (after being told they were rigged).  But potential biases aside, Polls do equal political reality at the time they are taken, but it seems like people often ignore the margin of error, and judge them by comparing who was ahead to who won the election.  Both of these are the wrong way to read polling data.

Example 1:

Candidate A is polling at 51%, B at 48%. Margin of error is 4.5%

Result:  A wins with 57%

This would be a polling miss because the difference between 57% and 51% is more than the 4.5% MoE .  It means the method the used to select people to poll was more likely to get a response from people that supported candidate B.  But many people would assume the poll was correct because it had A as the most likely winner, and A ended up winning.

If the same scenario resulted in candidate B winning with 50%, many people would think the poll was off because B polled less favorable than A, but ended up winning.  But that's wrong.  

If a poll shows 51% - 48% with a 4.5% MoE, it means that they expect candidate A to get between 46.5% and 55.5% of the vote, and B will get 43.5% - 52.5% of the vote.  

When you look at it this way, 2022 actually had some of the most accurate polling in history.  And they really haven't been nearly as bad as you'd think by all the complaining over the last 10 years.

[Smack That Ace]

According to the RealClearPolling no-Tossup map, Pennsylvania has once again swung to Donald Trump, after Kamala was ahead for almost two weeks. Trump now holds a razor-thin lead of 0.2% in this state in aggregate of polls. And this means that Trump/Vance is now ahead in electoral college by a margin of 281 vs 257. We have just around 5-6 weeks to go for the elections and if the opinion polls are correct this time (they were horribly wrong in both 2016 and 2020), then the winner of the election may not be announced immediately due to several close contests.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

I have a question, that this means that Pennsylvania has already won by Trump and opinion polls like this usually are the same during the election day? How accurate usually these opinion polls are? Pardon me as I am starting to follow this.

Polls do not equal the political reality of the United States whatsoever. That is something one needs to understand from the first move one does when getting into geopolitics also the inner politics of the United States. Those polls are made with a sample of the population, which means the poll could be biased or inaccurate, depending on the team behind them.
Look for example what happened during the midterm elections of 2022, according to polls the Republican party was supposed to gain advantage over the Democrat party both in the Senate and in the House of Representatives, it did not happen.

So if you are new at betting and American politics, I would recommend you to be skeptical of pols and see a little bit more how betting markets react to the actions of both candidates.

Similarly, if I remember correctly, in the 2016 election, most polls showed that Hillary Clinton would win, but the final result was completely opposite. Polls are unreliable.

Polls are never highly accurate and do not represent the final outcome of election. In my opinion, polling is just a part of the election campaign of the two candidates, they create polls and modify the results to manipulate the crowd psychology to their advantage. Additionally, vote share will change daily until the election is over and there are still more than 30 days until the election, so relying solely on current polls is not enough data to draw any conclusions.

For example, according to Polymarket's survey, Trump's support in Pennsylvania has dropped compared to a few weeks ago, and Harris has surpassed him according to the latest results on September 27.



https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1839693448217010316