2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets!

[LUCKMCFLY]

The way it was described to me was a Harris win so long as she does not wear out her new comer advantage, even though she has been VP for these past years to be a serious contender is new I guess.   Like anyone in politics she has her enemies and just generally anyone famous will have bad things written about them sooner or later, can she last as the 'new girl' till November.

However I think its more about Trump and his near death experience.  That is a definite advantage and swings votes towards him as literally a leader under fire who needs support, some especially on the right will respond to that and vote for him no doubt.    So can that advantage last till November or will any post assassin gains be zero by then.


   At least in the middle ground votes, some will decay to neutral or swap sides thats why they are the swing voters after all.
If theres an hour glass on either on either, its probably mostly Trump.  I do think his odds now as are peaked & favorable as they can be, he must win that debate to have a chance;  if they were to live fact check everything he says and on live TV then he is cooked

It's just that Trump has been through more extreme things than Kamala, Kamala is just a replacement option for Biden, and Biden was doing badly, he was losing against Trump, I understand all the analysis that can be done within the leadership of the Democrats and the Republicans, but what is visible does not need glasses, there is reality, and as you say, Trump's experience having been so close to death is something that makes Americans believe that he is a committed guy and that he only cares about his nation, plus the majority are disappointed with Biden and his management, that does not help at all.

Unfortunately I think you are right when talking about trump being so close to death.  But talk about recency biased.  This was a man making a speech.  John McCain while serving his country was a POW for over 5 years, with a lot of that time in solitary confinement.  He didn't end up winning but somehow the American people think this is different.  I'm not saying right wrong or indifferent but those 2 events don't remotely come close together so why would trump get in just because of that?

I think that McCain's thing is something that is very appropriate to bring up so that most people have to recognize it and well, they are people who have to be recognized, but I think that now what stays most in people's minds and psyches is the most recent, and the most recent is what is most in people's minds, it is the most viral and since social networks make any event fly, this influences a lot, and even more in politics because I consider that on a global level it has a unique significance.

[bbc.reporter]

Republicans didnt choose Trump especially, unlike the Democrat party who told their voters who they will be nominating and voting for it was the other way round with the Republican party.   The cart is leading the donkey or is it the elephant I forget but either way they have become polar opposites now.

  I agree before it was just two old white men sabre rattling but thats been the race almost every time for hundreds of years, now we need to witness does USA once again want to break those chains and vote differently.  The bias has to favor Trump for now.

Kamala's campaign is resembling that of Hillary Clinton in 2016 with each passing day. She is going to lose really bad.

That is the contrast Im looking at but is the campaign itself able to self examine and alter course to avoid wrecking on the same rocks that caught Clintons attempt.   On the night 2016 of the election count they declared early Clinton had won, nobody had a clue; dont take the polls as gospel.
[She did win the popular count but not the college]

The Democrats have always one much of the popular votes since a I began following US elections on Bush vs. Al Gore. However, the creation of the electoral college causes American presidential elections to have different maneuverings and tactics. This might appear to be unfair for some political commentators, however, this also makes the presidential elections much more exciting for the followers and for the people who bet on these candidates heheheh.

Trump has again increased his lead with 1% on Polymarket.

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1724300978485

Also, the vice presidential candidate of Robert F. Kennedy has declared that they might support the Donald Trump.



Speculation that Kennedy could abandon his presidential bid intensified after his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, revealed on a podcast on Tuesday he was considering that option – and considering endorsing Trump, the Republican nominee.

Source https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/21/rfk-jr-dropping-out-report

[Hirose UK]

Same with u I also put my money on Trump because what I think he have a good chance to win. I ignore the poll result since its like there's something wrong with those result they show to the public.

One of the reasons why I always go with Trump is that he is always underestimated by the bookmakers. This happened twice - first in 2016, and then again in 2020. I have checked odds for Trump in various online gambling sites, and the best I could get was around 1.60. Given the fact that he is leading in states such as Pennsylvania, I believe that the odds should be close to 1.3-1.4. On the other hand, Kamala's campaign is resembling that of Hillary Clinton in 2016 with each passing day. She is going to lose really bad.

Yes you are right, we can all see it now that Kamala Harris is far more dominant in the majority of bookmakers and this is one of the things that really confuses some people.
It is not the first time something like this has happened but we still have to really look in detail and find all the information available regarding the superiority of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump towards the support of the US public.
But what is quite surprising and makes me quite impressed with Kamala Harris is the support given by the former US president Barack Obama, this could be an advantage for Kamala Harris to get more supporters in the upcoming election.
It just that I still believe that Trump will win even though it is only small difference with Kamala Harris vote count.

[Sithara007]

Yes you are right, we can all see it now that Kamala Harris is far more dominant in the majority of bookmakers and this is one of the things that really confuses some people.
It is not the first time something like this has happened but we still have to really look in detail and find all the information available regarding the superiority of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump towards the support of the US public.
But what is quite surprising and makes me quite impressed with Kamala Harris is the support given by the former US president Barack Obama, this could be an advantage for Kamala Harris to get more supporters in the upcoming election.
It just that I still believe that Trump will win even though it is only small difference with Kamala Harris vote count.

Not sure whether the support from Obama will do any good for Kamala. Obama was supposed to support the Democrat nominee, and Kamala is regarded as someone who is close to him. At this point, the "No Tossup" map from RealClearPolling shows Trump with 287 electoral college votes, and Kamala with 251. Margin is close and Trump is boosted by his lead in Pennsylvania. In case Kamala manages to take the lead in that state, then the situation will flip. It will be 270 for Kamala vs 268 for Trump.

[criptoevangelista]

Same with u I also put my money on Trump because what I think he have a good chance to win. I ignore the poll result since its like there's something wrong with those result they show to the public.

One of the reasons why I always go with Trump is that he is always underestimated by the bookmakers. This happened twice - first in 2016, and then again in 2020. I have checked odds for Trump in various online gambling sites, and the best I could get was around 1.60. Given the fact that he is leading in states such as Pennsylvania, I believe that the odds should be close to 1.3-1.4. On the other hand, Kamala's campaign is resembling that of Hillary Clinton in 2016 with each passing day. She is going to lose really bad.

Yes you are right, we can all see it now that Kamala Harris is far more dominant in the majority of bookmakers and this is one of the things that really confuses some people.
It is not the first time something like this has happened but we still have to really look in detail and find all the information available regarding the superiority of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump towards the support of the US public.
But what is quite surprising and makes me quite impressed with Kamala Harris is the support given by the former US president Barack Obama, this could be an advantage for Kamala Harris to get more supporters in the upcoming election.
It just that I still believe that Trump will win even though it is only small difference with Kamala Harris vote count.

I also believe that Trump will win, but the whole movement of the Obama family and the world media may confuse some voters thinking that Kamala Harris may be the favorite to win the presidential elections, this worries me a lot... Anyway, we will follow how things unfold over time... at first I am considering this Obama movement a kind of desperation on the left side of the force.

[beerlover]

I don't support anyone in this upcoming November election, but I am interested in the fate of cryptocurrencies, because now we can already see how the candidates treat cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin. Trump has recently become almost a Bitcoin maximalist like Maul Saylor, but he is afraid of offending altcoin supporters as well. We know that his sons are involved in the creation of memecoins, or at least there is such information. How Kamala Harris feels about cryptocurrencies is still unknown. She can't say anything intelligible about it. Although we know that her husband is a crypto enthusiast, this is very little to understand Kamala's worldview.

That's the thought process of almost all the non-Americans here. I mean it is not our nation so we do not really care all that much who wins, but we worry about crypto. I do not "support" Trump because why would I, I am not American and I do not give a damn about trump, and just because he supports crypto, doesn't mean I will start to care about him, and looking at Kamala, that is someone I heard for the very first time ever when she was the VP pick last election, so why would I care about her, and I hope she doesn't go mad on crypto if she wins, that's all I care about, nothing more. Election at USA is not something we care about, there are billions like me, we do not care, and there are millions who only care about what will happen to crypto.

[STT]

Americans dont have a choice of whether to care, they are paying for the election and the entire government to play house with their money today and your future money every year till you die via debt & deficit budget spending.   They'll also send you to war too, so add your life onto that bet.

   The money discussion of the odds is purely a sidebet as we're already upto our necks in this game compadre.   Arguably as the global reserve currency nation with dollars created then spent altering value elsewhere, you as a citizen anywhere are effected imo.


Shooting & USSS Stories:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13769873/Arizona-shoot-trump-ronald-lee-syrvud.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13767237/Rep-Mike-Waltz-says-isnt-convinced-Donald-Trump-shooter-Thomas-Crooks-acted-assassination-attempt.html

[bbc.reporter]

@STT. I very much agree on your attitude on the government and on playing house with their money and their future money. However, this does not occur in America and in their government. This is an occurrence on all of these places where there is a government heheheheheh. But this is reality, wee need to pay taxes. My only issue with this is they take our money but they also use this money to step on our faces? Heheehh this is not right. Why can they not take only our money and play house and give the people their freedom?

[Dave1]

Same with u I also put my money on Trump because what I think he have a good chance to win. I ignore the poll result since its like there's something wrong with those result they show to the public.

One of the reasons why I always go with Trump is that he is always underestimated by the bookmakers. This happened twice - first in 2016, and then again in 2020. I have checked odds for Trump in various online gambling sites, and the best I could get was around 1.60. Given the fact that he is leading in states such as Pennsylvania, I believe that the odds should be close to 1.3-1.4. On the other hand, Kamala's campaign is resembling that of Hillary Clinton in 2016 with each passing day. She is going to lose really bad.

Yes you are right, we can all see it now that Kamala Harris is far more dominant in the majority of bookmakers and this is one of the things that really confuses some people.
It is not the first time something like this has happened but we still have to really look in detail and find all the information available regarding the superiority of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump towards the support of the US public.
But what is quite surprising and makes me quite impressed with Kamala Harris is the support given by the former US president Barack Obama, this could be an advantage for Kamala Harris to get more supporters in the upcoming election.
It just that I still believe that Trump will win even though it is only small difference with Kamala Harris vote count.

I also believe that Trump will win, but the whole movement of the Obama family and the world media may confuse some voters thinking that Kamala Harris may be the favorite to win the presidential elections, this worries me a lot... Anyway, we will follow how things unfold over time... at first I am considering this Obama movement a kind of desperation on the left side of the force.

If we look at the odds, Kamala is leading, but it is not over yet for Trump, I mean he has history already of making a comeback in the last couple of weeks prior to the election. But Trump or at least his advisers should really focus on what their platform are, so that the Americans will have a clear understanding instead of Trump going on the public and just attacks Kamala.

Otherwise, we will have the first women President of the United States.

[Sithara007]

If we look at the odds, Kamala is leading, but it is not over yet for Trump, I mean he has history already of making a comeback in the last couple of weeks prior to the election. But Trump or at least his advisers should really focus on what their platform are, so that the Americans will have a clear understanding instead of Trump going on the public and just attacks Kamala.

Otherwise, we will have the first women President of the United States.

Recent polls have shown Trump in the lead, however a few of them have put Kamala ahead. The latest one from Rasmussen Reports shows Trump ahead by 3 points. Another poll from HarrisX also shows him ahead by 2 points. And I have said this many times. If Trump is leading the popular vote, it is going to be a landslide win for him at the electoral college. Kamala is still enjoying some sort of bum from the Democrat nomination. But that bump is not going to last too long. 

[Mr. Magkaisa]

Yes you are right, we can all see it now that Kamala Harris is far more dominant in the majority of bookmakers and this is one of the things that really confuses some people.
It is not the first time something like this has happened but we still have to really look in detail and find all the information available regarding the superiority of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump towards the support of the US public.
But what is quite surprising and makes me quite impressed with Kamala Harris is the support given by the former US president Barack Obama, this could be an advantage for Kamala Harris to get more supporters in the upcoming election.
It just that I still believe that Trump will win even though it is only small difference with Kamala Harris vote count.

Not sure whether the support from Obama will do any good for Kamala. Obama was supposed to support the Democrat nominee, and Kamala is regarded as someone who is close to him. At this point, the "No Tossup" map from RealClearPolling shows Trump with 287 electoral college votes, and Kamala with 251. Margin is close and Trump is boosted by his lead in Pennsylvania. In case Kamala manages to take the lead in that state, then the situation will flip. It will be 270 for Kamala vs 268 for Trump.

        -       It looks like Kamala will be Trump's tough competitor this time. Does this mean there is now a good fight in this election campaign?

because it's possible that those who support Biden have fallen in support of Kamala, right? So Trump's victory is really not guaranteed when the US presidential election comes.

[alani123]

After RFK's endorsment it appears as though Kamala VS. Trump odds have come straight again.
There was a brief dip in Trump's chances that put Kamala first for a few days after Kamala's favorability in polls kept performing so well.
Still, in Trump vs. Kamala head to head polling Kamala seems to be performing better, but in many polls where RFK is included, Trump has much better chances interestingly.

Now RFK has announced that he'll be withdrawing from states that Trump needs to win, and endorsing Trump for president:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n15oCfLdmXI

This could be tremendous help to the Trump campaign in this tight race.

Another interesting development is that project 538 released their predictions today:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/


This is a website that makes simulations to see who's more likely to win. They made a good prediction for 2020, not so much for 2016. This year maybe RFK could be the factor that flips the election for Trump in spite of Kamala seemingly having more paths to victory at present.

[wheelz1200]

After RFK's endorsment it appears as though Kamala VS. Trump odds have come straight again.
There was a brief dip in Trump's chances that put Kamala first for a few days after Kamala's favorability in polls kept performing so well.
Still, in Trump vs. Kamala head to head polling Kamala seems to be performing better, but in many polls where RFK is included, Trump has much better chances interestingly.

Now RFK has announced that he'll be withdrawing from states that Trump needs to win, and endorsing Trump for president:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n15oCfLdmXI

This could be tremendous help to the Trump campaign in this tight race.

Another interesting development is that project 538 released their predictions today:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/


This is a website that makes simulations to see who's more likely to win. They made a good prediction for 2020, not so much for 2016. This year maybe RFK could be the factor that flips the election for Trump in spite of Kamala seemingly having more paths to victory at present.

I don't know if I've ever seen 50/40 odds on a presidential campaign this close to election.  Going to be a crazy last couple of months.  I'm waiting until the debate and then will probably throw some money down after that ends and I can see what the sentiment is like around the country.  All the other bets are just free money for the gambling house to rake in on.  Sucker bets.

[Hispo]

...

I heard he indeed withdrew from the race, which is kind of interesting to me, of I had to guess what happened, he probably ended up having some money from Trump for his endorsement. It makes seem if you think of Trump growing increasingly desperate as the Democratic convention is going on in the USA, as Kamala starts to take over the polls and the discourse of Trump appears to weaken, Trump probably accepted to pay Kennedy a good amount for him dropping out and explicitly endorse him...
Who knows, both Kennedy and Trump were aware that the former going third party was more likely to spoil the chances of Trump than those of Kamala.
Odds betting straight again is a sign Joe Biden did the right thing when he decided to drop out of the race, had he stayed around and keep his campaign, he would have shown to have less chances to win than Kamala, no doubt about it ...

[BlackBoss_]

I heard he indeed withdrew from the race, which is kind of interesting to me, of I had to guess what happened, he probably ended up having some money from Trump for his endorsement. It makes seem if you think of Trump growing increasingly desperate as the Democratic convention is going on in the USA, as Kamala starts to take over the polls and the discourse of Trump appears to weaken, Trump probably accepted to pay Kennedy a good amount for him dropping out and explicitly endorse him...

It is a big twist in very last months before the President Election but it began with a moment Kennedy decided to leave the Democratic Party and did his rally as an independent presidential nominee. His support for Trump and Republic Party in very decisive months, as he said, is to make sure that Republic Party and Trump will win against Democratic Party and Harris.

Who knows, both Kennedy and Trump were aware that the former going third party was more likely to spoil the chances of Trump than those of Kamala.
Odds betting straight again is a sign Joe Biden did the right thing when he decided to drop out of the race, had he stayed around and keep his campaign, he would have shown to have less chances to win than Kamala, no doubt about it ...

I believe that Kennedy truly saw something happened shady and bad in Democratic Party that is a his family's favorite party for many decades. His decisions months ago to leave them is a big moment but today event and his announcement to support Trump is a bigger moment. It's time for them to work together for beating Democratic Party and Harris to bring better borders and other things for the Americans.

His press conference today in which he told that the Democratic Party turned to be corrupted, censored and more.

[Sithara007]

His press conference today in which he told that the Democratic Party turned to be corrupted, censored and more.

If a member of the Kennedy family feels this way, then I wonder how the ordinary Americans are feeling. The way mainstream media is manipulating news to favor Kamala, in an ideal situation she should win by a landslide. Somewhere I read that 90% of the media coverage for Kamala is positive, while the same amount of media coverage for Trump is negative. That is a massive advantage for the Democrats. And the irony is that, despite all that Trump is still favored to win by a good margin.

[alani123]

...

I heard he indeed withdrew from the race, which is kind of interesting to me, of I had to guess what happened, he probably ended up having some money from Trump for his endorsement. It makes seem if you think of Trump growing increasingly desperate as the Democratic convention is going on in the USA, as Kamala starts to take over the polls and the discourse of Trump appears to weaken, Trump probably accepted to pay Kennedy a good amount for him dropping out and explicitly endorse him...
Who knows, both Kennedy and Trump were aware that the former going third party was more likely to spoil the chances of Trump than those of Kamala.
Odds betting straight again is a sign Joe Biden did the right thing when he decided to drop out of the race, had he stayed around and keep his campaign, he would have shown to have less chances to win than Kamala, no doubt about it ...

In his speech yesterday, Trump invited RFK to speak live towards his audience at the rally and announced they will be working together once Trump becomes president.
Kennedy is apparently very passionate about chronic disease and peace in Ukraine so he conceded going against trump to achieve these goals.

Some people say ti was obvious that this is what was going to happen from the start given that RFK's campaign was largely promoted by previously pro-trump super PACs. While the ads in the PAC's promotions weren't necessarily in RFK's control, this was telling of his leaning towards the overall Trump campaign. To be honest even though Trump let him speak, he gave him very little time and spoke against Kennedy's move to run as independent even while applauding him. So Trump doesn't seem to like RFK that much but maybe will give him a position out of necessity. Still for RRK this is better than nothing.

[STT]

Im not convinced Trump likes anyone that much, the two candidates will have done a deal.  I dont believe it was money, RFK will get a job if Trump gets in maybe in environmental concerns which Trump wishes to cap anyway.  Some agreement on policy is why RFK went that way but he is a Maverick anyway not a party man like his more famous relatives.  

The Democrat party was never going to back RFK in any way shape or form, he is just too out there.  Kayne is more a wild card I cant predict, I wonder if he'll make any run or has given up on this idea.   Just fame alone he can get the votes and he also has the money, obviously I dont consider it a serious run.   If the election and electoral college are close then factors like that could still matter, the swing states will win this election just like 2016.

There is a common theme in that parts of the Republican party have mentioned the Kennedy family and previous presidents alot in various talk.   Kennedy family is definitely Democrat but Arnold Schwarzenegger was married into the family and thats the last big office (Republican California Governor '03-'11) I can remember but anyhow Trump says he will uncover documents think of that what you will but its a big story clearly:
https://news.sky.com/story/trump-promises-to-release-jfk-assassination-documents-after-robert-f-kennedy-jr-backs-him-for-president-13201993

[EarnOnVictor]

The Democrats have always one much of the popular votes since a I began following US elections on Bush vs. Al Gore. However, the creation of the electoral college causes American presidential elections to have different maneuverings and tactics. This might appear to be unfair for some political commentators, however, this also makes the presidential elections much more exciting for the followers and for the people who bet on these candidates heheheh.

That's a thumbs up for the Democratic party, an indication that it is the party wanted by the majority, but I will not join those who would condemn the Electoral College whether it works for the Democratic party or not, besides, it has been used to produce the US president from both top parties.

The Electoral College is designed to average the voting power by considering the power of the voting population in high and low-populated states. This looks like the best plan to me and I wonder why people would condemn it because if not considered, it would have amounted to giving the more populated states more voting power over the less populated ones.

[Hispo]

. Still for RRK this is better than nothing.

Better than nothing and still, I will continue to view him as an opportunistic player within this race, he was never serious on having a path towards victory, he was just trying to profit and get whatever we could of his position, in which we could either hurt one or other candidate.
If Trump indeed wins on November and somehow RFK gets a job within his administration, it would be a confirmation for me that there was some.kindnof lead between his campaign and the campaign of Trump for both of them to unfavour the chances of Kamala Harris.

I don't know about you, but all this scenario has started to look like 2016 again, but with the difference of Trump now being a convicted felon and having less charisma than back then, almost a decade ago. If Kamala team is smart enough, they won't commit the same mistakes Hillary did during his presidencial campaign.