2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets!

[Poker Player]

I know there might be a lot of people here who think the "normal" taxation is already a theft, but taxing people on unrealised gains is a next-level evil. Anyone who supports this should be banned from politics for life.

But yeah, that's surely a good news for Trump.

It depends, there are many people who don't have a penny, who depend on the state and who are going to love this news as a blow to the rich. Not everyone has investments or understands them, or even if they don't, they understand the harm that a measure like this can do to the economy as a whole. They are simply signing up to the populist message against the rich.

[bbc.reporter]

This entry by Polymarket's prediction markets as a source of information for mainstream news media might add more inflows of money in these predictions and cause them to be more reliable for percentages if the prediction might become real or not real.

This is certainly only the beginning of this new type for gathering information on elections and political occurrences. Polymarket became very much popular because of the American presidential election, I reckon. Where is the token for this heheheheheheeheee.



Polymarket’s prediction data is poised to enter mainstream political discourse.

On Sept. 3, Shayne Coplan, the CEO and founder of Polymarket, the leading web3 prediction market, announced that Bloomberg Terminal had integrated Polymarket, making the platform’s data available to a broad audience of mainstream news consumers.

“Entering mainstream news and finance before our eyes,” Coplan tweeted. “What once was a fringe, sci-fi idea for transforming the flow of information is now becoming the new normal, as 10s of millions of people build habit around relying on Polymarket forecasts as a source of truth, to make sense of what’s going on in the world.”

Read in full https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/bloomberg-terminal-integrates-polymarket-election-data

[nullama]

I know there might be a lot of people here who think the "normal" taxation is already a theft, but taxing people on unrealised gains is a next-level evil. Anyone who supports this should be banned from politics for life.

But yeah, that's surely a good news for Trump.

I'm guessing that there must be some kind of minimum amount of unrealized gains that you need to have before this tax kicks in...

It's based on the idea that the few (thousands?) of people that have an enormous amount of wealth are just sitting on it without having to do anything other than invest their money to control the entire country.

It's probably not for regular people having investments with unrealized gains.

I think it's a good way to actually shift the wealth from the very few on top towards everyone else.

What would be a better alternative?, we are getting poorer and poorer, even if you are the top 1% of the working class.

[sompitonov]

This entry by Polymarket's prediction markets as a source of information for mainstream news media might add more inflows of money in these predictions and cause them to be more reliable for percentages if the prediction might become real or not real.

This is certainly only the beginning of this new type for gathering information on elections and political occurrences. Polymarket became very much popular because of the American presidential election, I reckon. Where is the token for this heheheheheheeheee.



Polymarket’s prediction data is poised to enter mainstream political discourse.

On Sept. 3, Shayne Coplan, the CEO and founder of Polymarket, the leading web3 prediction market, announced that Bloomberg Terminal had integrated Polymarket, making the platform’s data available to a broad audience of mainstream news consumers.

“Entering mainstream news and finance before our eyes,” Coplan tweeted. “What once was a fringe, sci-fi idea for transforming the flow of information is now becoming the new normal, as 10s of millions of people build habit around relying on Polymarket forecasts as a source of truth, to make sense of what’s going on in the world.”

Read in full https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/bloomberg-terminal-integrates-polymarket-election-data

I also like the polymarket and I started using it this year, but I don’t bet, I just watch for now and it interests me not only in political events, but also in the world of cryptocurrencies, because there are very interesting forecasts there. I think the polymarket will eventually become something big today. People have already bet $800 million on this site alone, the closer the elections are, the more money they will bet.

As for your joke about the token, I won’t be surprised if it happens) Just look at how big the capitalization of meme tokens is, it surprises me a lot. Therefore, the token will make much more sense against the background of memes. But in general, I wish the polymarket huge development, I will continue to use it.

[el kaka22]

I mean that's just a 50-60 dollar bet nothing big, but at the same time people are already betting millions (I am sure with every place included it must be billions by now) on the bet anyway, why do it here? That part doesn't make sense, I already have 50 bucks on Kamala for example, and had it for a while, did that next day after she became the candidate and Biden withdrew, which is why it's a good odds as well. I do not understand why I would do that here, the point is lost on me, doesn't feel any extra fun to do it here.

If it's about who is right, I already did put my money on Kamala, if I am right then I am right and make money, if I am wrong then I will lose money and you can mock me if you want.

But I won't do it here, plus we really do not know who will win, do not listen to anyone who says one side will win all the way now, they don't know, nobody knows, the entire world doesn't know, it's totally a random situation for now and we need to wait and see.

[pawel7777]

It depends, there are many people who don't have a penny, who depend on the state and who are going to love this news as a blow to the rich. Not everyone has investments or understands them, or even if they don't, they understand the harm that a measure like this can do to the economy as a whole. They are simply signing up to the populist message against the rich.

Maybe I'm naive but I still think that the majority of people have at least some sense of justice/injustice and will be put off by the idea of taxing someone on the profit they haven't even made.
And although she was proposing to only introduce such tax on millionaires (or billionaires), the message that is propagated on the internet is just that "Harris supports unrealised gains tax" and that's enough to spoof even small-time investors, which, in the US are tens of millions.
And I imagine the Democrats do have some very wealthy donors, who probably will also not be happy with that news.

[jossiel]

Another day, another Trump parlay with some easy kickers. I think I’m close to having a grand bet on this election now. Can’t say I’ve ever done something like that before. I like having my money where my mouth is though. I’m betting that America hasn’t become completely brain dead yet. A bold strategy, I know.

Good luck, that seems like the pulse of the people there.

plus we really do not know who will win, do not listen to anyone who says one side will win all the way now, they don't know, nobody knows, the entire world doesn't know, it's totally a random situation for now and we need to wait and see.

Actually, reading the thoughts of the people from there really gives a lot of interesting point of view. They're different as per the candidate that they're supporting, the points, the goods that each of them will bring to the table.

You'd see the other one hates the other candidate.

[Taskford]

Alright, so I hear that Kamala Harris mentioned her intention to increase capital gains tax as well as express her support for unrealised gains tax for the richest, which sparked a lot of controversies resulting in a drop in poll ratings:
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4859946-vice-president-kamala-harris-tax/

I know there might be a lot of people here who think the "normal" taxation is already a theft, but taxing people on unrealised gains is a next-level evil. Anyone who supports this should be banned from politics for life.

But yeah, that's surely a good news for Trump.

This is really awful imagine if this is been implemented then the life of their citizens will became more harder. Trump camp could take advantage in this situation and I don't know what Democrats thinking regarding in this matter instead they create more valuable law that can help to make the life of their citizen easier. They create things that only benefits them. One of greedy action made by politician and a red flag already so Trump could really take advantage on this and use this issue against Harris. For sure people hate paying huge taxes will get angry with this and provably that they avoid those politicians who agree to increase the tax and make their life became more harder.

For me taxation is not evil if they used it on right cause. But if they add up more and take lot of money to hard working people then indeed this is evil act. These kind of issues makes me think that its really good to bet on Trump presidency since I think he is more better even if Harris is leading on the poll as statistic sites says.

[Hispo]

Alright, so I hear that Kamala Harris mentioned her intention to increase capital gains tax as well as express her support for unrealised gains tax for the richest, which sparked a lot of controversies resulting in a drop in poll ratings:
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4859946-vice-president-kamala-harris-tax/

I know there might be a lot of people here who think the "normal" taxation is already a theft, but taxing people on unrealised gains is a next-level evil. Anyone who supports this should be banned from politics for life.

But yeah, that's surely a good news for Trump.

I read a bit about that on social media and I thought it was some kind of political joke or rumor being pushed by Trump's team, but it seems to be actually an idea within the mind of Kamala to tax the rich on money they have not even gotten their hands on.
That is going surely to help Trump to further push the idea Kamala Harris is some kind of unhinged communist who is seeking to undermine the American way of life.
Granted, even if we talk about the rich people (who already have enough money to live the rest of their life with comfort) it is still quite uncomfortable to even allow to pass the idea on that kind of taxation into law...

The worst of it is how the administration of Kamala Harris could be planning to enforce this those kinds of laws/economical measures on the American population from now on. Would not be necessary to keep surveillance up 24/7 on the rich and track each one of their investments in real time for the state to know whether they are avoiding taxes or not?
Besides being a measure which punishes investors, it also sounds like a good excuse to implement perpetual surveillance on the people's finances.

They could first start with the rich, as they are a minority in the country, then move onto the middle class and then to anyone who holds a bank account...
Bad timing for Kamala to actually go radical on economics.

[LUCKMCFLY]

I mean that's just a 50-60 dollar bet nothing big, but at the same time people are already betting millions (I am sure with every place included it must be billions by now) on the bet anyway, why do it here? That part doesn't make sense, I already have 50 bucks on Kamala for example, and had it for a while, did that next day after she became the candidate and Biden withdrew, which is why it's a good odds as well. I do not understand why I would do that here, the point is lost on me, doesn't feel any extra fun to do it here.

If it's about who is right, I already did put my money on Kamala, if I am right then I am right and make money, if I am wrong then I will lose money and you can mock me if you want.

But I won't do it here, plus we really do not know who will win, do not listen to anyone who says one side will win all the way now, they don't know, nobody knows, the entire world doesn't know, it's totally a random situation for now and we need to wait and see.

I think that in politics, religion and other areas we should all respect the points of view and preferences of each person, because they have their convictions and that should be repeated, therefore if you have your money on Kamala it is your decision and no one should make fun of or refute your decision, therefore that is called maturity and it is something that many do not handle, I have often given my point of view, and for me the one I have put in bets is Trump , but it is because of my way of seeing things, if I win super well once again then I show myself that my reasons were valid and if I lose then it is time to accept defeat, that is something that represents maturity and nothing happens from there.

[o48o]

Historian Allan Lichtman predicted that Kamala would win. He has pretty good track record on predicting new presidents by using a system called "keys to the white house", however that only predicts who wins the popular vote, and since US is weird and insist of using electoral college, i suppose that there's some casino allows betting on who wins the popular vote. If odds are good enough, i might bet for kamala on this.

[KTChampions]

I read a bit about that on social media and I thought it was some kind of political joke or rumor being pushed by Trump's team, but it seems to be actually an idea within the mind of Kamala to tax the rich on money they have not even gotten their hands on.
That is going surely to help Trump to further push the idea Kamala Harris is some kind of unhinged communist who is seeking to undermine the American way of life.
Granted, even if we talk about the rich people (who already have enough money to live the rest of their life with comfort) it is still quite uncomfortable to even allow to pass the idea on that kind of taxation into law...

The worst of it is how the administration of Kamala Harris could be planning to enforce this those kinds of laws/economical measures on the American population from now on. Would not be necessary to keep surveillance up 24/7 on the rich and track each one of their investments in real time for the state to know whether they are avoiding taxes or not?
Besides being a measure which punishes investors, it also sounds like a good excuse to implement perpetual surveillance on the people's finances.

They could first start with the rich, as they are a minority in the country, then move onto the middle class and then to anyone who holds a bank account...
Bad timing for Kamala to actually go radical on economics.

This is exactly how the income tax was introduced - at first it was declared as temporary and only for the rich, but now we pay crazy taxes that barely allow us to breathe.
I actively read Twitter and I am very upset that many people write "well, it's a tax on the rich, it won't affect me". Such people have zero morals and intelligence. Sometimes I think that to participate in elections you need property and intellectual qualifications. Stupid poor animals should not vote.

[Akbarkoe]

Historian Allan Lichtman predicted that Kamala would win. He has pretty good track record on predicting new presidents by using a system called "keys to the white house", however that only predicts who wins the popular vote, and since US is weird and insist of using electoral college, i suppose that there's some casino allows betting on who wins the popular vote. If odds are good enough, i might bet for kamala on this.

I am also interested in testing The Simpson's predictions whether it will happen to Kamala Harris, we know that some predictions in this cartoon series do come true in the future, a conspiracy cartoon, but it is very unique, very exciting to watch.

I don't remember where, but I once read that some casinos are allowed to hold bets on this US election, but I seem to have forgotten enough, previously I saw that Trump had a greater chance of becoming president again, but strangely Kamala Harris has increased since Biden resigned, and now the competition is quite tight.

[Bender Over]

Let's have a thread to discuss gambling on the 2024 United States Presidential election!
Remember: This is a thread about gambling, we go by the official results. For disputing past events you can go on the politics board.

Amazingly it looks like we're headed straight to yet another Biden vs. Trump race....

Betting on the Democrats now could be a big mistake, a week or two before Biden quit I was able to make a bet on the Democrats winning which paid ~3.2x the bet. Now it pays <2x. The bet wasn't real big, I should have made it much bigger.

[Haunebu]

Historian Allan Lichtman predicted that Kamala would win. He has pretty good track record on predicting new presidents by using a system called "keys to the white house", however that only predicts who wins the popular vote, and since US is weird and insist of using electoral college, i suppose that there's some casino allows betting on who wins the popular vote. If odds are good enough, i might bet for kamala on this.

Predictors are everywhere which is why it's best to trust your own gut over some random person's intuition. Personally, I feel that this race will be tight till the end, but Harris will somehow end up winning.

This will lead to Trump and his supporters losing it and probably initiating Capitol attack 2.0 screwing themselves royally in the process. Random prediction!

[Hispo]

Predictors are everywhere which is why it's best to trust your own gut over some random person's intuition. Personally, I feel that this race will be tight till the end, but Harris will somehow end up winning.

This will lead to Trump and his supporters losing it and probably initiating Capitol attack 2.0 screwing themselves royally in the process. Random prediction!

It would be very unfortunate of your prediction comes true and in the case of Donald Trump losing the race, he against calls his supporters to protest and end up in a riot in Washington or in any other major city of the United States. Actually, it would be a very foolish thing to do, considering how the previous rioters ended up : arrested and some of them being charged with crimes as serious as conspiracy or sedition.

I also have the gut feeling (for now), Harris will end up winning by a very tight margin, though that could change at any time, specially if Harris continues to signal she would implement measures as taxes on unrealized gains, as she signaled lately. If she continues to point towards such outrageous economical measures she won't be able to defeat Trump.

[dzungmobile]

News about Kamala Harris's acceptance on Bitcoin for donation on her campaign was released days ago but I saw this article on Coindesk that was published 2 days ago.

It has confirmation and clarification that Kamala did not accept it directly and previous news we read are faked or misled ones.

Kamala Harris Is Not Directly Accepting Crypto Donations, a PAC Is, Coinbase Says

This President Nominee is full of lies from policies, ideas to news releases.

[Haunebu]

I also have the gut feeling (for now), Harris will end up winning by a very tight margin, though that could change at any time, specially if Harris continues to signal she would implement measures as taxes on unrealized gains, as she signaled lately. If she continues to point towards such outrageous economical measures she won't be able to defeat Trump.

What Harris and Trump say these days probably doesn't matter much anymore since very few people would be willing to shift camps at this stage. November is going to be a crazy month for the USA and the rest of the world.

This President Nominee is full of lies from policies, ideas to news releases.

And Trump isn't? Harris lies about a lot of things, but Trump is a world class liar and is in another league when it comes to lying which he has proven time and time again.

[viljy]

The intrigue may persist until the last moment, but if we weigh different factors, then I would bet on Kamala's victory, although this is by no means obvious at this stage. Moreover, not for reasons of sympathy or antipathy of one of the parties, but solely for the purpose of winning the bet.

[Mpamaegbu]

~snipped~

An obvious sell-out and a moron.
Harris has reiterated several times that she continues to support the idea of ​​taxes on unrealized gains. This is anti-human in itself, but for crypto it is expressed even more strongly and any crypto enthusiast clearly understands this. Anyone in the cryptosphere who publicly supports Harris is a sellout.

I don't know from where I get this confidence that Harris won't defeat Trump. Maybe it's from the fact of what you enumerated above or from my observation that Americans aren't ready yet for a woman to preside over them. If they were, seeing how they loved Hillary Clinton, they would've elected her president in her contest against Trump. She was popular among them, yet they denied her that experience of the White House. I believe Harris will get a severe defeat of her life at the polls come November 5th.