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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1803445 times)
cypherdoc
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May 11, 2012, 10:43:25 PM
 #1141

I find the subject of this thread irritating.

i don't blame you.  it's questioning your foundational thesis and right now you're losing money.  i don't say that to taunt you.  i'm just making an observation.   Wink

i still haven't gotten a clear, understandable rebuttal to my USD hegemony theory that i've argued all along in this thread and in the "Gold: I smell a trap" thread where i debated miscreanity for 4 straight months with multiple posts per day.

Quote
 I find it especially annoying when anyone asserts certain future events as givens since nobody has a crystal ball, and I think that you do that all the time.  I also feel that you tend to cherry-pick certain events and/or 'call black white' to make points but have no proof (or interest in the tedious task of generating it.)  I feel that many 'cycles disciples ' do the same thing.  All these things irritate me, but that's basically my problem.  From time to time I cannot resist fighting fire with fire.  Nothing personal of course...it's all in good fun.

please provide some examples so i can assess your claims.  yes, i'm sure i can come across as arrogant (i guess) but thats b/c i have a lot of confidence in what i say.  after having picked as many corners as i have over the years i've come to believe in my abilities.  what can i say?  this recent downturn call i've made in the stock market and Apple is an ongoing call we both can assess realtime.

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This thread has proven fruitful in teasing out interesting viewpoints, philosophies, pointers, etc on a lot of peoples parts.  That's a good thing in my book.

it is indeed. Smiley
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MatthewLM
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May 12, 2012, 01:32:00 AM
 #1142

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i still haven't gotten a clear, understandable rebuttal to my USD hegemony theory that i've argued all along in this thread

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_hegemony This? Something to do with the reserve currency status? You think that's going to last forever and a day do you?

As you can tell I ignore the large posts in this thread. I've got better things to do.

A debt collapse in the USD would destroy the reserve currency status. In fact it would destroy the currency full stop. So are you now saying there wont be a total debt collapse?

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May 12, 2012, 01:57:35 AM
 #1143

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i still haven't gotten a clear, understandable rebuttal to my USD hegemony theory that i've argued all along in this thread

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_hegemony This? Something to do with the reserve currency status? You think that's going to last forever and a day do you?

As you can tell I ignore the large posts in this thread. I've got better things to do.

yeah, i believe it; selective reading of what you want to hear.

Quote

A debt collapse in the USD would destroy the reserve currency status. In fact it would destroy the currency full stop. So are you now saying there wont be a total debt collapse?

i seriously doubt the entire debt load of the US will collapse but i think it will be partially written off/restructured/defaulted.  we're seeing this right now abroad and somewhat here with mortgage debt.  as a result the USD will go up, as we've been seeing, which will continue to be a paradox to you.
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May 12, 2012, 02:27:36 AM
 #1144

What we have seen is demand deflation mixed with an inflationary response keeping the financial institutions alive and the government deficits going, causing inflationary pressures.

Ignoring the last spike which I don't get do you reckon something like this will happen but that the overall supply will shrink?



So banks would be full reserve? Debt collapse replaced into base money? So banks do not fail and debt gets wiped out at the same time.

Why does the federal reserve want deflation again? I thought they want inflation.

Someone like Paul Krugman wants hyper-lending to re-occur causing a massive inflationary boom.

Anyway, it's 3:27 here in the UK. Time to go to bed and perhaps write something tomorrow when my brain is awake.

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miscreanity
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May 12, 2012, 06:07:46 AM
 #1145

What we have seen is demand deflation mixed with an inflationary response keeping the financial institutions alive and the government deficits going, causing inflationary pressures.

Ignoring the last spike which I don't get do you reckon something like this will happen but that the overall supply will shrink?

...

So banks would be full reserve? Debt collapse replaced into base money? So banks do not fail and debt gets wiped out at the same time.

Why does the federal reserve want deflation again? I thought they want inflation.

Someone like Paul Krugman wants hyper-lending to re-occur causing a massive inflationary boom.

Anyway, it's 3:27 here in the UK. Time to go to bed and perhaps write something tomorrow when my brain is awake.

Maybe this will help (it's how I decided to amuse myself for an hour between MIT lectures):



Debt will be fully monetized, or very close to it. The "muddle-through" efforts in red are exactly what lead to a catastrophic failure, as it is a fight against the blue section showing time needed to repair and restructure. At a threshold where sufficient damage has been done, there is no way to repair without completely replacing critical components of the structure. It's the modern Icarus.

How about this - assuming everyone in this thread is familiar with computers well enough to understand how digital memory storage systems work, imagine you've decided to see how long a single database server can last, taking expansion and upgrades to the max possible with zero tolerance for downtime of any kind.

You start off with a system having the usual assortment of components; mainboard, memory, power supply, and solid state storage for this scenario. Each gradient on the far left represents a SSD, and each box right of that represents 10% of the drive capacity (1 unit). A given constraint is that the mainboard can only handle a maximum of 4 SSD devices. Also, any hardware added cannot be removed without preserving data integrity without resorting to media other than what is present in the system.

The database software requires at least 7 units of the current SSD, and growth is expected to be linear.

So far so good, everything is running nicely on new hardware.


A power outtage caused severe damage to the SSD, so badly that there isn't enough storage to operate the database.


A second SSD is added of the same capacity as the first, for simplicity of the example; the database is rebuilt with minimal loss.


The database now requires 8 units, and another major SSD failure occurred, this time affecting both. You max out the mainboard's SSD expansion to 4 drives.


Some time goes by, more SSD failures happened, and the database now requires 15 units to operate. Since there are only 16 units available, and the most damaged drive has 2 units, replacing it would bring the system down to 14 units and cause the database to cease operating.


Because the last two drives added were from OCZ, they fail in spectacular fashion. RAM was expanded to the maximum of 16 units during the last failure, so it is sufficient to run the database with 1 unit for the operating system. Running entirely in volatile memory, any black swan error could cause the data structures to become corrupted.


There are some nitpicking issues that would've extended the life of the system further, such as swapping SSDs while the database is running in memory, but eventually even the drive controller circuitry will fail. The point is that there will eventually be enough failures that there is no possible way for the system to continue without extreme structural changes. Swapping the mainboard would be tantamount to a brain transplant today, or Embraer instantaneously switching to apparel.

Computers can be duplicated easily. Planes in the air cannot. Nor can the role of the US dollar and it's debt infrastructure. A duplicate, or functional equivalent of similar capacity must be in place for transition. If there isn't, it's back to semi-agrarian society. There are functional equivalents for the USD, but the transition is destined for nastiness. The Euro or Yuan would be an upgrade in structure, but not by much.
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May 12, 2012, 01:37:57 PM
 #1146

What we have seen is demand deflation mixed with an inflationary response keeping the financial institutions alive and the government deficits going, causing inflationary pressures.

Ignoring the last spike which I don't get do you reckon something like this will happen but that the overall supply will shrink?



So banks would be full reserve? Debt collapse replaced into base money? So banks do not fail and debt gets wiped out at the same time.

Why does the federal reserve want deflation again? I thought they want inflation.

Someone like Paul Krugman wants hyper-lending to re-occur causing a massive inflationary boom.

Anyway, it's 3:27 here in the UK. Time to go to bed and perhaps write something tomorrow when my brain is awake.

i seriously considered not responding to you b/c it's like talking to the wall as i learned dealing with you in the "Gold: I smell a trap" thread.  as you said, you only read what you want to.  or perhaps when you have a vested interest in not understanding something you won't?

look around you man.  over the last 12 yrs we've been having a global price discovery facilitated by the Internet.  we've entered the Age of Deleveraging.  Nasdaq is down, stock market down (compared to its 10/07 high), housing down.  now, over the last year commodities down, silver down, gold down, miners down, Euro debt defaulted, Iceland debt defaulted, Ireland debt defaulted.  we're on the verge of 2 big kahunas defaulting; Spain and Italy.  this will spill over to Germany.  eventually i think the Euro gets disbanded resulting in another huge debt default. 

look at the past 1.5 mo where US stocks are being affected.  there are a boatload of individual stocks that have gapped down big as their shareholders have been taken out and shot in the head; GCMR, PRU, DECK, CSCO, and the most recent on Friday, JPM.  we are not going to continue to inflate no matter what the Fed does and all these price indicators are telling you that.  look at Morgan Stanley, they will probably be the next Lehman.  JPM goes right to the heart of the world's financial system.  they hold the biggest derivatives book the universe has ever seen and they are the Feds tool and connection to all markets.  Friday indicates BIG trouble.

to directly answer your question, no, they can't print fast enough to fill the imploding debt or asset values.  this is why asset values are falling and if you choose to ignore this you will lose alot of money.
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May 12, 2012, 01:48:21 PM
 #1147

to directly answer your question, no, they can't print fast enough to fill the imploding debt or asset values.  this is why asset values are falling and if you choose to ignore this you will lose alot of money.


In other-words, take out medium-term shorts on everything, and hold lots of cash.  Or short-term US bonds.
Remember the money bases M2, M3 are based upon 'leveraged assets.' If those assets dissolve, so does the overall monetary supply.

One off NP-Hard.
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May 13, 2012, 04:48:02 AM
 #1148

I find the subject of this thread irritating.

i don't blame you.  it's questioning your foundational thesis and right now you're losing money.  i don't say that to taunt you.  i'm just making an observation.   Wink

Are you kidding?  I've made more money on PM's than I ever dreamed I would.  I've lost money on Bitcoin however.  Oh well.  I believe that I played a role in supporting the solution in it's darkest hour (so far) when it was down near $2/BTC and since I believe in the solution and hope that it see's a chance to prove it's metal (forgive the pun) I am not complaining.

You, OTOH, if you dumped PM's and bought BTC around this time last year seem to be staring at a pretty significant hole (though not nearly the hole it was at the $2/BTC time)  Assuming you dumped  the last of your PM's around 5/10/11 and it took some days to get the money wired and make your BTC purchases, I would guess that you are already in the red.

I don't know if you sold BTC to cover your initial investment or not at the peak.  I hold more by a smallish percentage than the magic number which I actually wish to have.  If it gets to a point where I can sell down to that number to pay off my initial investment and leave me sitting on the stash that I want, I'll do so.  Else, I've always considered every dime I've spent on BTC to be a total loss.  If we get down to the sub $2/BTC range again and the solution still appears to me as being as solid as it did last time, I still plan on tanking up to (or toward) another magic number.

i still haven't gotten a clear, understandable rebuttal to my USD hegemony theory that i've argued all along in this thread and in the "Gold: I smell a trap" thread where i debated miscreanity for 4 straight months with multiple posts per day.

I don't have the time or energy to get a clear understanding on 'your USD hegemony theory' from that rather lengthy thread.  If you want to sum it up again in a few sentences I'll put some effort into responding.  As for my other complaints, it is to tedious to look for good historic examples.  As for being flat out wrong about an assertion, this thread will do...Gold has not collapsed yet in the way I define 'collapse', and Bitcoin is not up since you wrote the thing initially.  If you are going to try to pick a point in time when your projections happened to be playing out, that's what I consider 'cherry picking'.  If you want to state that reality now has proven you right all along, that's calling 'black white'.  I was only fairly honest in my (personal and general) assessment of (some of) your work since I figured that there was some chance that you would appreciate it.


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May 13, 2012, 04:59:27 AM
 #1149

I got free tickets to see 'Avengers' Friday.  Although I've never been into comics (except 'underground comix') and didn't know much about them, and these big fight movies are not a genera that normally does much for me, I found the movie surprisingly enjoyable.

For those who have seen the movies and like analogies, I thought of a good one:

Let's say Gold=Hulk and USD=Loki.

 - Near the end of the movie, Hulk goes after Loki and starts by smashing him through a wall.  (That would be 2000->2011)

 - Then there is some discussion with Loki saying something like "I'm the world's reserve.  I will not be bullied by you, you barbarous relic!"  (That would be now.)

 - The the funniest part of the movie occurs.  (That would be what Gold does to the USD in the probably not to distant future.)

"Puny world reserve currency."

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May 13, 2012, 05:01:59 AM
 #1150


You, OTOH, if you dumped PM's and bought BTC around this time last year seem to be staring at a pretty significant hole (though not nearly the hole it was at the $2/BTC time)  Assuming you dumped  the last of your PM's around 5/10/11 and it took some days to get the money wired and make your BTC purchases, I would guess that you are already in the red.

you don't have to worry about me.  i remember my first buy of BTC @ $1.60 the day before Easter last year so i'm sitting just fine thank you.  that's documented also if you care to go back to check my posts.  i'll make you do the work this time.

Quote
As for my other complaints, it is to tedious to look for good historic examples. 

that's funny.  if i ever leveled such a severe accusation at someone i usually would have a specific example or more in mind that i never forgot.  oh well.  no way to assess whether you serious or not.
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May 13, 2012, 05:12:46 AM
 #1151


As for my other complaints, it is to tedious to look for good historic examples. 

that's funny.  if i ever leveled such a severe accusation at someone i usually would have a specific example or more in mind that i never forgot.  oh well.  no way to assess whether you serious or not.

I made it pretty clear that these were my general perceptions of your work.  I may or may not be alone so use the info as you wish.

I forgot to mention that I'll be happy to point out such issues going forward and/or as I run across such things in the course of other research.


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May 13, 2012, 05:15:52 AM
 #1152


As for my other complaints, it is to tedious to look for good historic examples. 

that's funny.  if i ever leveled such a severe accusation at someone i usually would have a specific example or more in mind that i never forgot.  oh well.  no way to assess whether you serious or not.

I made it pretty clear that these were my general perceptions of your work.  I may or may not be alone so use the info as you wish.

I forgot to mention that I'll be happy to point out such issues going forward and/or as I run across such things in the course of other research.



Translation: I'm to lazy to actually engage in a discussion.  I'll just sit here in the peanut gallery and throw empty shells at you.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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tvbcof
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May 13, 2012, 05:30:39 AM
 #1153


As for my other complaints, it is to tedious to look for good historic examples. 

that's funny.  if i ever leveled such a severe accusation at someone i usually would have a specific example or more in mind that i never forgot.  oh well.  no way to assess whether you serious or not.

I made it pretty clear that these were my general perceptions of your work.  I may or may not be alone so use the info as you wish.

I forgot to mention that I'll be happy to point out such issues going forward and/or as I run across such things in the course of other research.



Translation: I'm to lazy to actually engage in a discussion.  I'll just sit here in the peanut gallery and throw empty shells at you.

I bet you would be happy to go through all of my 1000 posts to prove some relatively pointless thing?  Unfortunatly I cannot get a database dump of the forum and the UI is fairly tedious.  Unlike a lot of other people it seems, I feel some significant duty to do good and detailed analysis if I make hard and fast statements....so I rarely make these.  And anyway I gave you a classic example since it was at hand (this thread.)  Again, do with it what you will.

If your goal is to produce such a mountain of text that you can argue that history proves you right and the most prescient person on the planet and rely on the reality that no (honest) person in their right mind is going to analyze 4000 posts, then it is probably working for you.


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May 13, 2012, 05:46:32 AM
 #1154


As for my other complaints, it is to tedious to look for good historic examples. 

that's funny.  if i ever leveled such a severe accusation at someone i usually would have a specific example or more in mind that i never forgot.  oh well.  no way to assess whether you serious or not.

I made it pretty clear that these were my general perceptions of your work.  I may or may not be alone so use the info as you wish.

I forgot to mention that I'll be happy to point out such issues going forward and/or as I run across such things in the course of other research.



Translation: I'm to lazy to actually engage in a discussion.  I'll just sit here in the peanut gallery and throw empty shells at you.

I bet you would be happy to go through all of my 1000 posts to prove some relatively pointless thing?  Unfortunatly I cannot get a database dump of the forum and the UI is fairly tedious.  Unlike a lot of other people it seems, I feel some significant duty to do good and detailed analysis if I make hard and fast statements....so I rarely make these.  And anyway I gave you a classic example since it was at hand (this thread.)  Again, do with it what you will.

If your goal is to produce such a mountain of text that you can argue that history proves you right and the most prescient person on the planet and rely on the reality that no (honest) person in their right mind is going to analyze 4000 posts, then it is probably working for you.



it's already been said by me and several others that this thread deals with a prediction as to the general direction of where gold is headed over the long term, not a collapse yesterday, today or tomorrow.

your accusation amounts to more than one also and i'd think you'd have specific examples in mind that wouldn't involve combing thru 4000 posts.

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May 13, 2012, 06:02:19 AM
 #1155

Another Score:  5/11-12/12  (two in one)

Comment.  Bitcoin gone red and going red'er Sad  Ouch!  Lets see an update of yours silverbox.

Another Score:  5/12/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     5.40         4.95       + 0.92
Gold    1505         1580      + 1.05

Another Score:  5/11/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     5.00         4.95       +  0.99
Gold    1505         1580      + 1.05

--------------------------
ref (for future updates):
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-05-08zeg2011-05-08ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv  (change date)
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html  (hist cgi at bottom)
mult=now/year_ago


Another Score:  5/10/12  (kitco down, gold est from INO.)

          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     3.82         4.90       + 1.28
Gold    1510         1593      + 1.05


Another Score:  5/9/12

          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     3.75         5.03       + 1.34
Gold    1510         1590      + 1.05


Another Score:  5/8/12

          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     3.64         5.03       + 1.38
Gold    1497         1605      + 1.07


cypherdoc
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May 13, 2012, 06:04:47 AM
 #1156

Another Score:  5/11-12/12  (two in one)

Comment.  Bitcoin gone red and going red'er Sad  Ouch!  Lets see an update of yours silverbox.

Another Score:  5/12/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     5.40         4.95       + 0.92
Gold    1505         1580      + 1.05

Another Score:  5/11/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     5.00         4.95       +  0.99
Gold    1505         1580      + 1.05

--------------------------
ref (for future updates):
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-05-08zeg2011-05-08ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv  (change date)
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html  (hist cgi at bottom)
mult=now/year_ago


Another Score:  5/10/12  (kitco down, gold est from INO.)

          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     3.82         4.90       + 1.28
Gold    1510         1593      + 1.05


Another Score:  5/9/12

          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     3.75         5.03       + 1.34
Gold    1510         1590      + 1.05


Another Score:  5/8/12

          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     3.64         5.03       + 1.38
Gold    1497         1605      + 1.07



year over year comparisons mean nothing in a fledgling startup currency like Bitcoin.  get real.
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May 13, 2012, 06:13:44 AM
 #1157

...
You start off with a system having the usual assortment of components; mainboard, memory, power supply, and solid state storage for this scenario. Each gradient on the far left represents a SSD, and each box right of that represents 10% of the drive capacity (1 unit). A given constraint is that the mainboard can only handle a maximum of 4 SSD devices. Also, any hardware added cannot be removed without preserving data integrity without resorting to media other than what is present in the system.
...

...and you select ZFS running on BSD or Solaris so you can swap storage pools at will...and also be less likely to end up like poor old Zhou Tong getting hacked for tens of thousands of BTC every time he turns around.


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May 13, 2012, 06:27:33 AM
 #1158


I bet you would be happy to go through all of my 1000 posts to prove some relatively pointless thing?  Unfortunatly I cannot get a database dump of the forum and the UI is fairly tedious.  Unlike a lot of other people it seems, I feel some significant duty to do good and detailed analysis if I make hard and fast statements....so I rarely make these.  And anyway I gave you a classic example since it was at hand (this thread.)  Again, do with it what you will.

If your goal is to produce such a mountain of text that you can argue that history proves you right and the most prescient person on the planet and rely on the reality that no (honest) person in their right mind is going to analyze 4000 posts, then it is probably working for you.


it's already been said by me and several others that this thread deals with a prediction as to the general direction of where gold is headed over the long term, not a collapse yesterday, today or tomorrow.

your accusation amounts to more than one also and i'd think you'd have specific examples in mind that wouldn't involve combing thru 4000 posts.


Well shit.  OK, fine.  I picked one page of your posts at random and found the first seemingly factual assertion of yours, and here's what I get:

how fitting.

Wave 3 starting after all the weak hands have been shaken out or liquidated.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2012-01-01zeg2012-05-12ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Maybe you can use this as a pivot to explain 'wave theory' to us ignorant peons?  But don't waste your breath on me cuz' it would take a lot of work to make me believe that it is more than a bunch of made-up-after-the-fact garbage which mainly appeals to the weak minded who are afraid to (or unable to) think for themselves.  But selling magic crystals makes a lot of people a living too I suppose Wink


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May 13, 2012, 06:34:02 AM
 #1159


I bet you would be happy to go through all of my 1000 posts to prove some relatively pointless thing?  Unfortunatly I cannot get a database dump of the forum and the UI is fairly tedious.  Unlike a lot of other people it seems, I feel some significant duty to do good and detailed analysis if I make hard and fast statements....so I rarely make these.  And anyway I gave you a classic example since it was at hand (this thread.)  Again, do with it what you will.

If your goal is to produce such a mountain of text that you can argue that history proves you right and the most prescient person on the planet and rely on the reality that no (honest) person in their right mind is going to analyze 4000 posts, then it is probably working for you.


it's already been said by me and several others that this thread deals with a prediction as to the general direction of where gold is headed over the long term, not a collapse yesterday, today or tomorrow.

your accusation amounts to more than one also and i'd think you'd have specific examples in mind that wouldn't involve combing thru 4000 posts.


Well shit.  OK, fine.  I picked one page of your posts at random and found the first seemingly factual assertion of yours, and here's what I get:

how fitting.

Wave 3 starting after all the weak hands have been shaken out or liquidated.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2012-01-01zeg2012-05-12ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Maybe you can use this as a pivot to explain 'wave theory' to us ignorant peons?  But don't waste your breath on me cuz' it would take a lot of work to make me believe that it is more than a bunch of made-up-after-the-fact garbage which mainly appeals to the weak minded who are afraid to (or unable to) think for themselves.  But selling magic crystals makes a lot of people a living too I suppose Wink



i don't use wave theory primarily but i do believe we're in the beginning of a 3 up.  aren't i allowed to have an opinion?

i actually do believe it is hard to apply technical analysis to Bitcoin at this early stage which is why i don't emphasize it in my newsletter.  my opinion is based more on the fundamentals.

Cycle Theory is based more on historical statistical analysis of the cycles and we don't have alot of history yet in Bitcoin.
 
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May 13, 2012, 05:17:12 PM
 #1160


Well shit.  OK, fine.  I picked one page of your posts at random and found the first seemingly factual assertion of yours, and here's what I get:

how fitting.

Wave 3 starting after all the weak hands have been shaken out or liquidated.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2012-01-01zeg2012-05-12ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Maybe you can use this as a pivot to explain 'wave theory' to us ignorant peons?  But don't waste your breath on me cuz' it would take a lot of work to make me believe that it is more than a bunch of made-up-after-the-fact garbage which mainly appeals to the weak minded who are afraid to (or unable to) think for themselves.  But selling magic crystals makes a lot of people a living too I suppose Wink



well ok, i think i've figured it out.  i'm really big on behavior analysis and get excited when i can apply it to capital markets.  i get even more excited when i can apply it to myself and learn something from it.

see these 2 pm's i made to miscreanity last October:

no not really altho the btc price did start declining in June near the May top in the Dow.

it has been measured; not your typical straight down crash IMO.  i see a decending wedge which will break back up.  it may have started today.

i've been busy fighting all the negative posts over in the Speculation forum and even started a Short Sell warning thread thats getting alot of attention.  i truly think the shorts have overextended their position altho i have no absolute proof of this.  just a feeling i get from braggarts throughout the forum. pessimism is rampant.

i think Bitcoinica where they allow leverage of 5x and short selling may be contributing to the decline.  but i think the shorts and Zhoutong who runs Bitcoinica are getting very nervous.  i've noticed that he's force liquidated alot of the inexperienced short selling kids who are getting themselves into trouble.

i moved a large amount of USD to mtgox yesterday and am a large % of that bid wall at $2 thats blocked the descent and helped trigger this rally.  i hope it holds and changes the trend.  if the sellers/shorts take it down it'll take alot of money but thats ok with me b/c i think i will have gotten that much more Bitcoin at a cheap price.  
when you go over to the Speculation section to read my posts, excuse my brazeness and sloppiness in my posts.  it is the Wild West over there afterall. Wink
remember this thread?:  Warning:  How many of you Bears have ever been a victim of a Short Squeeze??

prior to putting up that thread i had never posted on the Spec Forum b/c i thought it was filled with blowhards, pumpers, dumpers, trolls, etc. and it is.  as the price was spiraling down at that time i made a conscious decision to enter this part of the forum and get down into the mud and fight hand to hand battles with the troll short sellers.  fire and brimstone as one poster described it.  i had an investment to protect and i sensed a great opportunity to slaughter them.  and slaughtered they were.  i threw all sorts of bullshit at that thread and attracted the ire of alot of the trolls.  they still come after me from time to time to this day like ElectricMucus and Transisto.

so if you look at all my posts prior to that date i'm sure they will meet your "expectations".  any objectionable post after that i will almost guarantee you has been made in the Spec Forum.  it is the Wild West after all where anything goes so if you can't handle it you'd better stay out.  i automatically slip into this mode now subconsciously sort of like when i go back to the old neighborhood where i grew up with the black folk and automatically start talking the "lingo".  it's actually gotten alot better around here in the Spec Forum and i'd like to think i had a part in that in toeing the line with trolls.  its not nearly as necessary now as it used to be.

as far as your rants against Cycle Theory technical analysis, they are unfounded.  you like to characterize these predictions as black and white.  they aren't.  cycle theory is based on probabilities.  as in "this setup has an approx. 70% chance of moving in this direction" based on historical statistical analysis.  it's mathematical unlike Elliott Wave which i must admit doesn't work most of the time IMO.  that's why i don't use it very often except in the case above where i can see where the other guys see a wave 3 in progress.  i used to subscribe to the Elliott Wave Theorist and their every other day trading letter.  i saw so many mistakes i quit.

my subscribers are being taught how i do it and are responding positively:

On the other hand I think that cypherdoc’s service is great also!  He focuses on more of the fundamental analysis of the real-world markets, not particularly so much on bitcoin.  His analysis has been spot-on and dead on time.  It is remarkable to listen to someone who has such a great ‘feel’ for the wider markets.
The other great thing about cypherdoc’s analysis is that he takes the time to explain how he got to such a position, logically portraying his thought processes, teaching the subscribers how to analyse and critically think about the markets as he.

While S3052 and cypherdoc both seem to be perma-bulls, one can take that into account when reading their analysis.  As I often think… It is just another prospective in to be taken account of, while I will still make my own trading decisions.
and i've told them i won't always be right but any recommendations i make have a higher probability than not in playing out.  

another distinction that i feel is important is that technical analysis cannot work when analyzing a single market like Bitcoin in isolation.  my subscribers know that i'm constantly assessing multiple markets simultaneously over multiple time frames to get an overall picture of what is likely to happen.  and i firmly believe you won't be able to tell what's going to happen with Bitcoin unless you understand what is happening in these larger markets around you.  i have open on my desktop over 120 data feeds at once to keep my fingers on the pulse of what's happening.  it's like an orchestra playing out in front of me with me being the conductor.  not in the sense that i'm controlling things but in the sense that i can tell if the strings are slightly off key and i immediately direct my attention to whats going on over on that part of the stage.  there is alot of intuition that goes into it as well and learning to think like a criminal.  i also learned that growing up in the rougher areas of town.  i also don't believe you can use technical analysis to call every little twist and turn in the market and have made it clear to my subscribers that i emphasize and personally trade the intermediate term cycles primarily and that they are on their own if they try to day trade or trade daily cycles.  there's too much noise in that short a time frame and it is unpredictable.

so there you have it.  Happy Mother's Day! Cheesy
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